• Title/Summary/Keyword: The Prediction Model

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Long-Term Memory and Correct Answer Rate of Foreign Exchange Data (환율데이타의 장기기억성과 정답율)

  • Weon, Sek-Jun
    • The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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    • v.7 no.12
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    • pp.3866-3873
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, we investigates the long-term memory and the Correct answer rate of the foreign exchange data (Yen/Dollar) that is one of economic time series, There are many cases where two kinds of fractal dimensions exist in time series generated from dynamical systems such as AR models that are typical models having a short terrr memory, The sample interval separating from these two dimensions are denoted by kcrossover. Let the fractal dimension be $D_1$ in K < $k^{crossover}$,and $D_2$ in K > $k^{crossover}$ from the statistics mode. In usual, Statistic models have dimensions D1 and D2 such that $D_1$ < $D_2$ and $D_2\cong2$ But it showed a result contrary to this in the real time series such as NIKKEL The exchange data that is one of real time series have relation of $D_1$ > $D_2$ When the interval between data increases, the correlation between data increases, which is quite a peculiar phenomenon, We predict exchange data by neural networks, We confirm that $\beta$ obrained from prediction errors and D calculated from time series data precisely satisfy the relationship $\beta$ = 2-2D which is provided from a non-linear model having fractal dimension, And We identified that the difference of fractal dimension appeaed in the Correct answer rate.

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Characteristics of Heavy Metal Releases from the Abandoned Dogog Mine Tailing in Korea (도곡광산 광미의 중금속 용출 특성)

  • Park, Chang-Jin;Kim, Won-Il;Jeong, Goo-Bok;Lee, Jong-Sik;Ryu, Jong-Su;Yang, Jae-E.
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.316-322
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    • 2006
  • Objective of this research was to assess the release characteristics of metals from the mine tailing to base the prediction of metal load potential from tailing to soils. Water-soluble concentrations of Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn released from mine tailing after 2 hrs were 2.31, 129.38, 17.17, and 287.53 mg/kg, respectively, as compared to 1.6, 128, 108, and 142 mg/kg that were extractable by 0.1 M HCl. Kinetics of metal releases followed the power function model significantly indicating that more of water soluble fractions of those metals released at the initial short time, followed by a slow increase. Concentrations of metals released from tailing by water and 0.1 M HCl were in the orders of Zn > Cu > Pb > Cd. The breakthrough curve from the column experiment showed that concentrations of Cd, Cu, and Zn reached at highest after one pore volume, but that of Pb reached highest after five pore volumes when 0.1 M HCl was used as eluent. The release rate of Cd from mine tailing was the fastest but Pb was the slowest. The cumulative mass of metal released by 0.1 M HCl was in the order of Zn > Cu > Pb > Cd after nine pore volume elution.

Optimization of KOH pretreatment conditions from Miscanthus using high temperature and extrusion system (고온 압출식 반응시스템을 이용한 억새 바이오매스의 KOH 전처리조건 최적화)

  • Cha, Young-Lok;Park, Sung-Min;Moon, Youn-Ho;Kim, Kwang-Soo;Lee, Ji-Eun;Kwon, Da-Eun;Kang, Yong-Gu
    • Journal of the Korean Applied Science and Technology
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.1243-1252
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the optimum conditions of biomass pretreatment with potassium hydroxide (KOH) for efficient utilization of cellulose, hemicellulose and lignin from Miscanthus. The optimization of variables was performed by response surface methodology (RSM). The variation ranges of the parameters for the RSM were potassium hydroxide 0.2~0.8 M, reaction temperature 110~190℃ and reaction time 10~90 min. The optimum conditions of alkali pretreatment from Miscanthus were determined as follows: concentration of KOH 0.47 M, reaction temperature 134℃ and reaction time 65 min. At the optimum conditions, the yield of cellulose from the solid fraction after pretreatment was predicted to be 95% by model prediction. Finally, 66.1 ± 1.1% of cellulose were obtained by verification experiment under the optimum conditions. The order contents of solid extraction were hemicellulose 26.4 ± 0.4%, lignin 3.7 ± 0.1% and ash 0.5 ± 0.04%. The yield of ethanol concentration of 96% was obtained using separated saccharification and fermentation.

Development of Oriental Melon Harvesting Robot in Greenhouse Cultivation (시설재배 참외 수확 로봇 개발)

  • Ha, Yu Shin;Kim, Tae Wook
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.123-130
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    • 2014
  • Oriental melon (Cucumis melo var. makuwa) should be cultivated on the soil and be harvested. It is difficult to find because it is covered with leaves, and furthermore, it is very hard to grip it due to its climbing stems. This study developed and tested oriental melon harvesting robots such as an end-effector, manipulator and identification device. The end effector is divided into a gripper for harvest and a cutter for stems. In addition, it was designed to control the gripping and cutting forces so that the gripper could move four fingers at the same time and the cutter could move back and forth. The manipulator was designed to realize a 4-axis manipulator structure to combine orthogonal coordinate-type and shuttle-type manipulators with L-R type model to rotate based on the central axis. With regard to the identification device, oriental melon was identified using the primary identification global view camera device and secondary identification local view camera device and selected in the prediction of the sugar content or maturity. As a result of the performance test using this device, the average harvest time was 18.2 sec/ea, average pick-up rate was 91.4%, average damage rate was 8.2% and average sorting rate was 72.6%.

The Determinants of New Supply in the Seoul Office Market and their Dynamic Relationship (서울 오피스 신규 공급 결정요인과 동태적 관계분석)

  • Yang, Hye-Seon;Kang, Chang-Deok
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.159-174
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    • 2017
  • The long-term imbalances between supply and demand in office market can weaken urban growth since excessive supply of offices led to office market instability and excessive demand of offices weakens growth of urban industry. Recently, there have been a lot of new large-scale supplies, which increased volatility in Seoul office market. Nevertheless, new supply of Seoul office has not been fully examined. Given this, the focus of this article was on confirming the influences of profitability, replacement cost, and demand on new office supplies in Seoul. In examining those influences, another focus was on their relative influences over time. For these purposes, we analyzed quarterly data of Seoul office market between 2003 and 2015 using a vector error correction model (VECM). As a result, in terms of the influences on the current new supply, the impact of supply before the first quarter was negative, while that of office employment before the first quarter was positive. Also, that of interest rate before the second quarter was positive, while those of cap rate before the first quarter and cap rate before the second quarter were negative. Based on the findings, it is suggested that prediction models on Seoul offices need to be developed considering the influences of profitability, replacement cost, and demand on new office supplies in Seoul.

Analysis of Bus Accidents Influential Factors on Bus Exclusive Lane in Seoul (Bus Median Lane and Bus Curb Lane Defined) (서울시 버스전용차로구간의 버스사고 영향요인 분석 연구 (중앙전용차로 및 가로변전용차로 구분))

  • Lim, Jun-Beom;Hong, Ji-Yeon;Chang, Il-Jun;Park, Jun-Tae
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.145-155
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    • 2012
  • At present, Seoul City is putting the bus exclusive lane system into practice according to mass transit revitalization policy. Starting with the installation of roadside bus exclusive lane in the past, at present, even the road sections for central- lane bus exclusive lane system are on the increase. The purpose of this research is to analyze the factors giving impacts on bus accident on central bus exclusive lane and roadside bus exclusive lane. In case of the central bus exclusive lane, the 6 variables, such as the number of bus routes, number of access & entrance to central lanes patterns, whether the stop line of central lanes retreats or not, separated distance between the stop line of central lanes and crosswalks, traffic volume, and number of bus routes stopping at bus stops on reversible lanes, were found to have a significant influence on bus accidents. In case of roadside bus exclusive lane sections, the four variables such as the number of right-turn bus routes, whether to be chronic illegal parking & stopping, time for the walk signal, and forms of land use, etc. were found to have a significant influence on bus accident.

External validation of IBTR! 2.0 nomogram for prediction of ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence

  • Lee, Byung Min;Chang, Jee Suk;Cho, Young Up;Park, Seho;Park, Hyung Seok;Kim, Jee Ye;Sohn, Joo Hyuk;Kim, Gun Min;Koo, Ja Seung;Keum, Ki Chang;Suh, Chang-Ok;Kim, Yong Bae
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.139-146
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: IBTR! 2.0 nomogram is web-based nomogram that predicts ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR). We aimed to validate the IBTR! 2.0 using an external data set. Materials and Methods: The cohort consisted of 2,206 patients, who received breast conserving surgery and radiation therapy from 1992 to 2012 at our institution, where wide surgical excision is been routinely performed. Discrimination and calibration were used for assessing model performance. Patients with predicted 10-year IBTR risk based on an IBTR! 2.0 nomogram score of <3%, 3%-5%, 5%-10%, and >10% were assigned to groups 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. We also plotted calibration values to observe the actual IBTR rate against the nomogram-derived 10-year IBTR probabilities. Results: The median follow-up period was 73 months (range, 6 to 277 months). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.607, showing poor accordance between the estimated and observed recurrence rate. Calibration plot confirmed that the IBTR! 2.0 nomogram predicted the 10-year IBTR risk higher than the observed IBTR rates in all groups. High discrepancies between nomogram IBTR predictions and observed IBTR rates were observed in overall risk groups. Compared with the original development dataset, our patients had fewer high grade tumors, less margin positivity, and less lymphovascular invasion, and more use of modern systemic therapies. Conclusions: IBTR! 2.0 nomogram seems to have the moderate discriminative ability with a tendency to over-estimating risk rate. Continued efforts are needed to ensure external applicability of published nomograms by validating the program using an external patient population.

An Improved RANSAC Algorithm Based on Correspondence Point Information for Calculating Correct Conversion of Image Stitching (이미지 Stitching의 정확한 변환관계 계산을 위한 대응점 관계정보 기반의 개선된 RANSAC 알고리즘)

  • Lee, Hyunchul;Kim, Kangseok
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.9-18
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    • 2018
  • Recently, the use of image stitching technology has been increasing as the number of contents based on virtual reality increases. Image Stitching is a method for matching multiple images to produce a high resolution image and a wide field of view image. The image stitching is used in various fields beyond the limitation of images generated from one camera. Image Stitching detects feature points and corresponding points to match multiple images, and calculates the homography among images using the RANSAC algorithm. Generally, corresponding points are needed for calculating conversion relation. However, the corresponding points include various types of noise that can be caused by false assumptions or errors about the conversion relationship. This noise is an obstacle to accurately predict the conversion relation. Therefore, RANSAC algorithm is used to construct an accurate conversion relationship from the outliers that interfere with the prediction of the model parameters because matching methods can usually occur incorrect correspondence points. In this paper, we propose an algorithm that extracts more accurate inliers and computes accurate transformation relations by using correspondence point relation information used in RANSAC algorithm. The correspondence point relation information uses distance ratio between corresponding points used in image matching. This paper aims to reduce the processing time while maintaining the same performance as RANSAC.

An Analysis on Export Behavior to China of Container Port (국내 컨테이너항만의 대중국 수출행태 분석)

  • Son, Yong-Jung
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.115-128
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    • 2009
  • This study aims to identify the influence of exchange rate and national economy on Export through container ports (Busan Port, Incheon Port, Gwangyang Port, and Pyeongtaek Port) from January 2001 to October 2007. This study carried a unit root test on the results of the analysis and failed to reject the null hypothesis that level variables have a unit root at the level of 1%. However, it carried out a unit root test on the variables by the first order difference and succeeded in rejecting the null hypothesis aforementioned at the level of 1%. As a result of the cointegration test, it was found that the model is stable. When this study carried out a variance decomposition on the prediction error of export at container various container ports, it found 89% for Busan Port, 83% for Incheon Port, 86% for Gwangyang Port, and 84% for Pyeongtaek Port. These figures indicate that such variables significantly account for export at container ports. For Busan Port, Step 2 of exchange rate showed negative (-) effect, and Step 3 shows an extreme transition into a positive (+) effect. The national economy showed an extreme change from Steps 2 to Step 7, and then a positive effect has been maintained. The Incheon Port, Gwangyang Port and Pyeongtaek Port showed similar trends to Busan Port. From Step 7, it seems that they have Shifted to more stable trends.

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A Survey of Weather Forecasting Software and Installation of Low Resolution of the GloSea6 Software (기상예측시스템 소프트웨어 조사 및 GloSea6 소프트웨어 저해상도 설치방법 구현)

  • Chung, Sung-Wook;Lee, Chang-Hyun;Jeong, Dong-Min;Yeom, Gi-Hun
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.349-361
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    • 2021
  • With the development of technology and the advancement of weather forecasting models and prediction methods, higher performance weather forecasting software has been developed, and more precise and accurate weather forecasting is possible by performing software using supercomputers. In this paper, the weather forecast model used by six major countries is investigated and its characteristics are analyzed, and the Korea Meteorological Administration currently uses it in collaboration with the UK Meteorological Administration since 2012 and explains the GloSea However, the existing GloSea was conducted only on the Meteorological Administration supercomputer, making it difficult for various researchers to perform detailed research by specialized field. Therefore, this paper aims to establish a standard experimental environment in which the low-resolution version based on GloSea6 currently used in Korea can be used in local systems and test it to present the localization of low-resolution GloSea6 that can be performed in the laboratory environment. In other words, in this paper, the local portability of low-resolution Globe6 is verified by establishing a basic architecture consisting of a user terminal-calculation server-repository server and performing execution tests of the software.