• Title/Summary/Keyword: The Logistic Curve

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Life Risk Assessment of Landslide Disaster in Jinbu Area Using Logistic Regression Model (로지스틱 회귀분석모델을 활용한 평창군 진부 지역의 산사태 재해의 인명 위험 평가)

  • Rahnuma, Bintae Rashid Urmi;Al, Mamun;Jang, Dong-Ho
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.65-80
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    • 2020
  • This paper deals with risk assessment of life in a landslide-prone area by a GIS-based modeling method. Landslide susceptibility maps can provide a probability of landslide prone areas to mitigate or proper control this problems and to take any development plan and disaster management. A landslide inventory map of the study area was prepared based on past historical information and aerial photography analysis. A total of 550 landslides have been counted at the whole study area. The extracted landslides were randomly selected and divided into two different groups, 50% of the landslides were used for model calibration and the other were used for validation purpose. Eleven causative factors (continuous and thematic) such as slope, aspect, curvature, topographic wetness index, elevation, forest type, forest crown density, geology, land-use, soil drainage, and soil texture were used in hazard analysis. The correlation between landslides and these factors, pixels were divided into several classes and frequency ratio was also extracted. Eventually, a landslide susceptibility map was constructed using a logistic regression model based on entire events. Moreover, the landslide susceptibility map was plotted with a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calculated the area under the curve (AUC) and tried to extract a success rate curve. Based on the results, logistic regression produced an 85.18% accuracy, so we believed that the model was reliable and acceptable for the landslide susceptibility analysis on the study area. In addition, for risk assessment, vulnerability scale were added for social thematic data layer. The study area predictive landslide affected pixels 2,000 and 5,000 were also calculated for making a probability table. In final calculation, the 2,000 predictive landslide affected pixels were assumed to run. The total population causalities were estimated as 7.75 person that was relatively close to the actual number published in Korean Annual Disaster Report, 2006.

A Study of Effect on the Smoking Status using Multilevel Logistic Model (다수준 로지스틱 모형을 이용한 흡연 여부에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Lee, Ji Hye;Heo, Tae-Young
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.89-102
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    • 2014
  • In this study, we analyze the effect on the smoking status in the Seoul Metropolitan area using a multilevel logistic model with Community Health Survey data from the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), profiling analysis and two types of predicted value were used to determine the appropriate multilevel analysis level. Sensitivity, specificity, percentage of correctly classified observations (PCC) and ROC curve evaluated model performance. We showed the applicability for multilevel analysis allowed for the possibility that different factors contribute to within group and between group variability using survey data.

Comparison of nomogram construction methods using chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (만성 폐쇄성 폐질환을 이용한 노모그램 구축과 비교)

  • Seo, Ju-Hyun;Lee, Jea-Young
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.329-342
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    • 2018
  • Nomogram is a statistical tool that visualizes the risk factors of the disease and then helps to understand the untrained people. This study used risk factors of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and compared with logistic regression model and naïve Bayesian classifier model. Data were analyzed using the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 6th (2013-2015). First, we used 6 risk factors about COPD. We constructed nomogram using logistic regression model and naïve Bayesian classifier model. We also compared the nomograms constructed using the two methods to find out which method is more appropriate. The receiver operating characteristic curve and the calibration plot were used to verify each nomograms.

A Study on the Freezing and Strength Properties of Cement Mortar using Accelerator for Freezing Resistance (내한촉진제를 이용한 시멘트 모르터의 동결 및 강도특성에 관한 연구)

  • 박상준;김동석;원철;이상수;김영진
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2000.10b
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    • pp.1267-1272
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    • 2000
  • When fresh concrete is exposed to low temperature, the concrete may suffer frost damage due to freezing at early ages and strength development may be delayed. These are problems on cold weather concrete. One of the solution methods for resolving these problems has been to reduce the freezing temperature of concrete by the use of chemical admixtures called Accelerators for freezing resistance. Therefore, in this study, we executed freezing temperature of mortar, setting and strength properties with using water reducing accelerator and accelerators for freezing resistance which are producted internationally. As a result of this experiment, the freezing temperature of mortar is lower and the setting property is promoted when the admixing content of accelerators for freezing resistance is increased. Moreover, the compressive strength of mortar used accelerators for freezing resistance represented the result which is similar with result of analysis of compressive strength increase with using logistic curve formula, but in the case of plain and using water reducing accelerator, there is no relation between logistic curve formula, maturity and compressive strength.

Goodness-of-fit test for the half logistic distribution based on multiply Type-II censored samples

  • Kang, Suk-Bok;Cho, Young-Seuk;Han, Jun-Tae;SaKong, Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.317-325
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, we develop four modified empirical distribution function (EDF) type tests using approximate maximum likelihood estimators for the half-logistic distribution based on multiply Type-II censored samples. We also propose modified normalize sample Lorenz curve polt and new test statistics. We compare the above test statistics in the sense of the power for various censored samples. We present an example to illustrate this method.

A Study on Transportation Systems of Container Cargo in Busan Port (부산항 컨테이너 화물수송체계에 관한 연구)

  • 오석기;오윤표;윤칠용
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2000.11a
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    • pp.7-14
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    • 2000
  • The purpose of this study is to improvement strategies for transportation systems of container cargo in Busan port. Therefore, it was forecasted the future container cargo demand using logistic curve formula. In 2011, container cargo demand was forecasted 8.791 million TEU(T/S including 12.559 million TEU). In order to improvement transportation systems of container cargo, this study presented following; $\circled1$ port facilities expansion, $\circled2$ diversity of container transport modes. $\circled3$ make up ICD and exclusive container roads, $\circled4$ the second Seoul-Busan Expressway.

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An Introduction to Logistic Regression: From Basic Concepts to Interpretation with Particular Attention to Nursing Domain

  • Park, Hyeoun-Ae
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.154-164
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    • 2013
  • Purpose: The purpose of this article is twofold: 1) introducing logistic regression (LR), a multivariable method for modeling the relationship between multiple independent variables and a categorical dependent variable, and 2) examining use and reporting of LR in the nursing literature. Methods: Text books on LR and research articles employing LR as main statistical analysis were reviewed. Twenty-three articles published between 2010 and 2011 in the Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing were analyzed for proper use and reporting of LR models. Results: Logistic regression from basic concepts such as odds, odds ratio, logit transformation and logistic curve, assumption, fitting, reporting and interpreting to cautions were presented. Substantial shortcomings were found in both use of LR and reporting of results. For many studies, sample size was not sufficiently large to call into question the accuracy of the regression model. Additionally, only one study reported validation analysis. Conclusion: Nursing researchers need to pay greater attention to guidelines concerning the use and reporting of LR models.

Mesh Selectivity of Durm Net Fish Trap for Elkhorn sculpin(Alcichthys alcicornis) in the Eastern Sea of Korea (동해의 장구형 통발에 대한 빨간횟대 (Alcichthys alcicornis)의 망목선택성)

  • Park, Hae-Hoon;Jeong, Eui-Cheol;An, Heui-Chun;Park, Chang-Doo;Kim, Hyun-Young;Bae, Jae-Hyun;Cho, Sam-Kwang;Baik, Chul-In
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.247-254
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    • 2004
  • The mesh selectivity of the drum net fish trap for elkhorn sculpin(Alcichthys alcicornis) in the estern sea of Korea was described. The selection curve for the elkhorn sculpin caught from the experiments between June 2003 and December 2003 was by SELECT(Share Each Length Class's Catch Total)model and by Kitahaa's method to a polynomial equation and two parameter logistic selection curve. The selection curve by SELECT model showed to be equal probability of entrance of the elkhorn sculpin in the large(55mm) and small(20mm) mesh traps by minimum AIC (Akaike Information Criteria). The equation of selectivity curve obtained by Kitahara's method using a logistic function with least square method was $s(R)\;=\;\frac{1}{1+exp(-0.3545R+2.141)$, where R=1/m, and/and m are total length and mesh size, respectively. The mesh selectivity curve showed that the current regulated mesh size(35mm) for the trap was corresponded to 21.4cm in the $L_{50}$of the selection curve for the elkhorn sculpin.

Factors Affecting Growth Curve Parameters of Hanwoo Cows (한우 암소의 성장곡선 모수에 영향을 미치는 요인)

  • Lee, C.W.;Choi, J.G.;Jeon, K.J.;Na, K.J.;Lee, C.;Hwang, J.M.;Kim, J.B.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.45 no.5
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    • pp.711-724
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    • 2003
  • Some growth curve models were used to fit individual growth of 1,083 Hanwoo cows born from 1970 to 2001 in Daekwanryeong branch, National Livestock Research Institute(NLRI). The effects of year-season of birth and age of dam were analyzed. In analysis of variance for growth curve parameters, the effects of birth year-season were significant for mature weight(A), growth ratio(b) and maturing rate(k)(P〈.01). The effects of age of dam were significant for growth ratio(b) but not significant for mature weight(A) and maturing rate(k). The linear term of the covariate of age at the final weights was significant for the A(P〈.01) and k(P〈.01) of Gompertz model, von Bertalanffy model and Logistic model. For the growth curve parameters fitted on individual data using Gompertz model, von Bertalanffy model and Logistic model, resulting the linear contrasts(fall-spring), Least square means of A in three nonlinear models were higher cows born at fall and A of Logistic model was significant(P〈.05) between the seasons. According to the results of the least square means of growth curve parameters by age of dam, least square means of mature weight(A) in Gompertz model was largest in 6 year and smallest estimating for 3 and 8 years of age of dam. The growth ratio(b) was largest in 2 year of age of dam and smallest estimating in 8 year. The A and k were not different by age of dam(p〉.05), On the other hand, the b was different by age of dam(p〈.01). The estimate of A in von Bertalanffy model was largest in 6 year and smallest in 8 and 9 years of age of dam. The b was largest in 2 year and tend to decline as age of dam increased. The A and k were not different by age of dam(p〉.05), On the other hand, the b was highly significant by age of dam(p〈.01).

A Study on Growth Pattern in a New Synthetic Korean Native Commercial Chicken by Sex and Strains (신품종 토종닭의 계통과 성별에 따른 성장 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Kigon, Kim;Eun Sik, Choi;See Hwan, Sohn
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.229-237
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    • 2022
  • This study investigated the growth characteristics of four strains of newly developed synthetic Korean native commercial chickens (KNCs). We investigated a suitable growth curve model in KNCs and estimated the number of days to reach a 2 kg market weight. Body weight was measured at 2-week intervals from birth to 12 weeks of age. The growth curves were estimated using von Berteralanffy, Gompertz, and logistic functions. The results showed that males were significantly heavier than females at all ages, but there were no significant differences in body weight between strains, except at birth and 2 and 6 weeks of age. The coefficients of determination and adjusted determination of growth function had high goodness-of-fit (97.4~99.7). Of the growth curve parameters, the mature weight and growth ratio were higher in males than in females, but the maturity rate was similar in males and females. The inflection point occurred at approximately 7 weeks of age for females and 8 to 9 weeks of age for males. The weights estimated from the growth curve functions almost agreed with the actual weights, except for male weights estimated using the von Bertalanffy function. The coefficients of determination of the regression equations for weight to age were 0.9583 to 0.9746. The 8- and 10-week-old body weights estimated using the regression equation, and the 12-week-old weight estimated using the logistic function were most similar to the actual weight. Using these models, the estimated age of KNCs to reach 2 kg was 62.0~64.6 days for males and 74.9~78.6 days for females.