The Statistical regression model has been used to construct crash prediction models, despite its limitations in assuming data distribution and functional form. In response to the limitations associated with the statistical regression models, a few studies based on non-parametric methods such as neural networks have been proposed to develop crash prediction models. However, these models have a major limitation in that they work as black boxes, and therefore cannot be directly used to identify the relationships between crash frequency and crash factors. A genetic programming model can find a solution to a problem without any specified assumptions and remove the black box effect. Hence, this paper investigates the application of the genetic programming technique to develope the crash prediction model. The data collected from the Gyeongbu expressway during the past three years (2010-2012), were separated into straight and curve sections. The random forest technique was applied to select the important variables that affect crash occurrence. The genetic programming model was developed based on the variables that were selected by the random forest. To test the goodness of fit of the genetic programming model, the RMSE of each model was compared to that of the negative binomial regression model. The test results indicate that the goodness of fit of the genetic programming models is superior to that of the negative binomial models.
Park, Seung Hwan;Jung, Jin Taek;Sim, Woo Jung;Kim, Yung Sear
재활복지
/
v.18
no.4
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pp.221-235
/
2014
Recently, the frequency of stroke disease is increased due to the rapid aging population, and is contributed to the major occurrence factors of the posteriori acquired disability. This study is about an postural change device for the control of supine posture which is an assisted equipment using in daily rehabilitation process for overcoming the disability by the aftereffects of the stoke disease. In this paper, the existing domestic and Japan postural appliances is examined and its comparison and categorization is performed according to its functions and purposes. Here, in order to control the supine posture state, the design method for advanced multi functional system is proposed, which is devised to have an unified mattress control operations of combining the bedsore prevention tube with the supine posture tilting tube. And also, in addition of an smart function, it is designed to enable to perform an RF functions such as the monitoring of the present device state, the alteration of the basic position and the control of alternative floating and supine posture. This system control hardware consists of three main parts : the sensor detection part, the motor driving /control part, and the system control part for bluetooth communication. In results, we confirmed that the system designed by this research is possible to make it practical as an advanced smart postural change device combined by IoT technology in the application field of the recent IT technology.
Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of rainfall worldwide, and the pattern is changing due to inundation damage in urban areas due to rapid urbanization and industrialization. Accordingly, the impact assessment of climate change is mentioned as a very important factor in urban planning, and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is emphasizing the need for an impact forecast that considers the social and economic impacts that may arise from meteorological phenomena. In particular, in terms of traffic, the degradation of transport systems due to urban flooding is the most detrimental factor to society and is estimated to be around £100k per hour per major road affected. However, in the case of Korea, even if accurate forecasts and special warnings on the occurrence of meteorological disasters are currently provided, the effects are not properly conveyed. Therefore, in this study, high-resolution analysis and hydrological factors of each area are reflected in order to suggest the depth of flooding of urban floods and to cope with the damage that may affect vehicles, and the degree of flooding caused by rainfall and its effect on vehicle operation are investigated. decided it was necessary. Therefore, the calculation formula of rainfall-immersion depth-vehicle speed is presented using various machine learning techniques rather than simple linear regression. In addition, by applying the climate change scenario to the rainfall-inundation depth-vehicle speed calculation formula, it predicts the flooding of urban rivers during heavy rain, and evaluates possible traffic network disturbances due to road inundation considering the impact of future climate change. We want to develop technology for use in traffic flow planning.
Purpose: This study examined the association of fruit and vegetable consumption with asthma in Korean adults. Methods: Data on 16,528 adults aged 19-64 were collected from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). The general characteristics of the subjects, daily food intake, and daily energy and nutrients intake were investigated according to fruit and vegetable consumption. All statistical analyses were conducted based on SAS software version 9.4. Results: The prevalence of doctor-diagnosed asthma was 2.6%, and ranged between 1.8% and 3.1% depending on fruit and vegetable consumption. As fruit and vegetable consumption increased, the individuals showed a higher average age and household income, but a lower educational level, smoking rate, and frequency of alcohol consumption. The group with higher fruit and vegetable consumption had higher intakes of all food groups without milk and dairy products and energy and nutrients than the counterpart group. For the intake rate of energy, the group with higher consumption of fruit and vegetables had a higher intake rate of carbohydrate and protein and a lower intake rate of fat. The risk rate of asthma with the third quartile group regarding fruit and vegetable consumption was 35%-40% lower than that of the first quartile group. Conclusion: The results suggest that adequate consumption of fruit and vegetable will help to improve the risk of asthma. Moreover, prospective cohort studies and clinical test research are necessary to measure the effects of fruit and vegetable consumption on the occurrence of asthma.
The significant role of joint attention in the development of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) has highlighted the importance of early intervention. With the emphasis on the effective cueing and reinforcer for orienting to social stimuli in improving responding to joint attention (RJA) of children with ASD, the use of musical cue was hypothesized. This study aimed to examine the occurrence of RJA behaviors depending on the attentional cue, which differed in the level of information and type of auditory modality. Nine children with ASD participated in this study. The use of eight different joint attention cues were analyzed in terms of the frequency and accuracy of RJA behaviors elicited. The results of the study showed that RJA behaviors occurred more frequently with musical cues than with verbal cues and the mean accuracy rate of RJA was higher with musical cues (p = .047). Musically delivered eliciting and directing cues accompanied with pointing elicited the highest attentional shift and RJA accuracy. The significant increases in RJA with the use of musical cues indicated that incorporating musical elements into an attentional cue may provide more accurate cue information, enough to improve RJA behaviors of children with autism.
Background: D-dimer testing is widely applied as a first step in the diagnostic work-up of pulmonary embolism (PE). Although this is the most sensitive assay for ruling out PE, the prognostic implications of D-dimer testing in patients with normotensive PE are not well known. The aim of this study was to determine if D-dimer testing on admission predicts major adverse cardiac events (MACE) in patients with normotensive PE. Methods: A total of 180 consecutive patients with normotensive PE admitted between January 2003 and June 2009 were included. The group was divided into quartiles on the basis of their D-dimer levels. We compared the frequency of MACE by quartile of D-dimer level and estimated sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values for MACE in the first and fourth quartile. Results: In the 37 (20.6%) patients with MACEs, the median D-dimer level (7.94[IQR:4.03~18.17]${\mu}g/mL$) was higher than in patients with a benign course (5.29[IQR:2.60~11.52]${\mu}g/mL$, p<0.01). The occurrence of MACEs was increased with increasing D-dimer level (p=0.017). In the first quartile (D-Dimer <$2.76{\mu}g/mL$) sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for predicting MACEs were, respectively, 91.9%, 29.4%, 25.2%, and 93.3%. Conclusion: Patients with D-dimer levels below $2.76{\mu}g/mL$ have a low risk of MACEs. Our study suggest that D-dimer level may be used to identify low risk patients with normotensive PE.
Though the occurrence of multiple primary malignant tumor is a rare finding but the reported cases of it has increased in recent years. We collected multiple primary cancer of different organ, tissue and the multicentric origin of bilaterally paired organs. This paper reports 6 cases of multiple primary malignant tumors which were experienced at Yeungnam university hospital in Taegu during the past 2 years with review of journals. The results were as follows. 1. The incidence of multiple primary cancer was 0.31% for 2 years(1987-1988). 2. The ratio between male and female was 1:1 and mean age of incidence was 54.1 years. 3. The ratio between synchronous and metachronous(interval more than 6 months) was 1:1. 4. The time interval between first and second cancer was average 2.7 years in metachronous cases. 5. The most frequent involved organ was stomach, breast and colon in order of frequency. 6. The incidence of familial cancer associations was found in one out of 6 cases. 7. The test of DNCB, multi test CMI and ratio of T4 to T8 were performed in 4 cases but there was no definitive evidence of abnormality. We concluded that every effort should be made to discover the presence of synchronous malignancies in the patients who are being treated for a known tumor, and also special care should be given to detect new metachronous lesions is required.
Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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v.11
no.3
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pp.209-218
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2011
The present study proposes a new estimation relationship for the transmission rate of the steel breakwater which is expected to make up for the weakness points in existing hard solution for shore protection. The steel breakwater consists of the wave dissipator of the dual horizontal plates, the supporting columns and their foundations, and thus its respective designs should also be conducted one by one. Furthermore, the breakwater has to ensure both functions of shore protection and structure stabilization. The study produced experimental data for the stability and safety investigation of the steel breakwater. The forces acting on the steel breakwater were classified into two categories, one is vertical up and down loads for the pile resistance and the other was maximum difference of the vertical load acting on horizontally different position for the torsion. The study applied the stability force produced by the summation of maximum pressure at each point and the safety force acting on each point simultaneously. The regular wave corresponding to the significant wave was utilized for measuring wave pressure and force. The study showed the method for the proper position of submerged upper plate by considering occurrence frequency of tide level. The design process finally determined by trial and error is proposed in the present study.
Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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v.57
no.1
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pp.47-57
/
2015
Along with climate change, the occurrence and severity of natural disasters have been increased globally. In particular, the increase of localized heavy rainfalls have caused severe flood damage. Thus, it is needed to consider climate change into the estimation of design flood, a principal design factor. The main objective of this study was to estimate design floods for an agricultural reservoir watershed based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios. Gyeryong Reservoir located in the Geum River watershed was selected as the study area. Precipitation data of the past 30 years (1981~2010; 1995s) were collected from the Daejeon meteorological station. Future precipitation data based on RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 scenarios were also obtained and corrected their bias using the quantile mapping method. Probability rainfalls of 200-year frequency and PMPs were calculated for three different future spans, i.e. 2011~2040; 2025s, 2041~2070; 2055s, 2071~2100; 2085s. Design floods for different probability rainfalls were calculated using HEC-HMS. As the result, future probability rainfalls increased by 9.5 %, 7.8 % and 22.0 %, also design floods increased by 20.7 %, 5.0 % and 26.9 %, respectively, as compared to the past 1995s and tend to increase over those of 1995s. RCP4.5 scenario, especially, resulted in the greatest increase in design floods, 37.3 %, 36.5 % and 47.1 %, respectively, as compared to the past 1995s. The study findings are expected to be used as a basis to reduce damage caused by climate change and to establish adaptation policies in the future.
This research focuses on one important type of non-traditional threat, maritime piracy, and tries to supplement previous research from the perspective of military power, especially naval power. When considering the elements of military power, naval power is a core independent variable to explain piracy incidents. Indeed, naval power can play a key role in solving piracy problems, since naval power is the only legitimate force to respond to piracy in the sea. It is natural that well equipped and trained naval power in the sea increases the probability of capturing pirates, which leads to increasing the costs of piracy and decreasing its occurrences. In addition, since naval combatant ships have more impressive weapons than those of pirate boats, just the presence of naval combatant ships could serve to deter piracy incidents in the sea. The main purpose of this research is finding the effectiveness of large multinational naval efforts to deter piracy incidents in Africa. With this research purpose, I analyze 771 piracy incidents that occurred in African states from 2009 to 2014. Furthermore, I include all 33 coastal states in Africa regardless of the experiences of piracy incidents in order to avoid selection bias, which is very common in quantitative-based piracy incidents research. The dependent variable of this research is frequency of maritime piracy incidents for a country-year and the independent variable is the number of multi-national naval warships that operate near Somalia. With this analysis, I find the large number of multi-state naval combatant ships are negatively related to piracy incidents. In other words, as a main means to counteract piracy incidents, multi-state naval combatant ships are conducive to reduce piracy incidents near Somalia, since it increases costs (being captured) of conducting piracy.
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