• Title/Summary/Keyword: The Financial Crisis

Search Result 837, Processing Time 0.029 seconds

Development of Predictive Models for Rights Issues Using Financial Analysis Indices and Decision Tree Technique (경영분석지표와 의사결정나무기법을 이용한 유상증자 예측모형 개발)

  • Kim, Myeong-Kyun;Cho, Yoonho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.18 no.4
    • /
    • pp.59-77
    • /
    • 2012
  • This study focuses on predicting which firms will increase capital by issuing new stocks in the near future. Many stakeholders, including banks, credit rating agencies and investors, performs a variety of analyses for firms' growth, profitability, stability, activity, productivity, etc., and regularly report the firms' financial analysis indices. In the paper, we develop predictive models for rights issues using these financial analysis indices and data mining techniques. This study approaches to building the predictive models from the perspective of two different analyses. The first is the analysis period. We divide the analysis period into before and after the IMF financial crisis, and examine whether there is the difference between the two periods. The second is the prediction time. In order to predict when firms increase capital by issuing new stocks, the prediction time is categorized as one year, two years and three years later. Therefore Total six prediction models are developed and analyzed. In this paper, we employ the decision tree technique to build the prediction models for rights issues. The decision tree is the most widely used prediction method which builds decision trees to label or categorize cases into a set of known classes. In contrast to neural networks, logistic regression and SVM, decision tree techniques are well suited for high-dimensional applications and have strong explanation capabilities. There are well-known decision tree induction algorithms such as CHAID, CART, QUEST, C5.0, etc. Among them, we use C5.0 algorithm which is the most recently developed algorithm and yields performance better than other algorithms. We obtained data for the rights issue and financial analysis from TS2000 of Korea Listed Companies Association. A record of financial analysis data is consisted of 89 variables which include 9 growth indices, 30 profitability indices, 23 stability indices, 6 activity indices and 8 productivity indices. For the model building and test, we used 10,925 financial analysis data of total 658 listed firms. PASW Modeler 13 was used to build C5.0 decision trees for the six prediction models. Total 84 variables among financial analysis data are selected as the input variables of each model, and the rights issue status (issued or not issued) is defined as the output variable. To develop prediction models using C5.0 node (Node Options: Output type = Rule set, Use boosting = false, Cross-validate = false, Mode = Simple, Favor = Generality), we used 60% of data for model building and 40% of data for model test. The results of experimental analysis show that the prediction accuracies of data after the IMF financial crisis (59.04% to 60.43%) are about 10 percent higher than ones before IMF financial crisis (68.78% to 71.41%). These results indicate that since the IMF financial crisis, the reliability of financial analysis indices has increased and the firm intention of rights issue has been more obvious. The experiment results also show that the stability-related indices have a major impact on conducting rights issue in the case of short-term prediction. On the other hand, the long-term prediction of conducting rights issue is affected by financial analysis indices on profitability, stability, activity and productivity. All the prediction models include the industry code as one of significant variables. This means that companies in different types of industries show their different types of patterns for rights issue. We conclude that it is desirable for stakeholders to take into account stability-related indices and more various financial analysis indices for short-term prediction and long-term prediction, respectively. The current study has several limitations. First, we need to compare the differences in accuracy by using different data mining techniques such as neural networks, logistic regression and SVM. Second, we are required to develop and to evaluate new prediction models including variables which research in the theory of capital structure has mentioned about the relevance to rights issue.

A Narrative Study on the Experiences of Facing and Coping the Crisis in the Wives of Men Having Visual Impairment (중도시각장애인 부인의 위기 직면 및 극복 경험에 관한 내러티브 연구)

  • Kwon, Jinsook;Park, Sihyun
    • Journal of Korean Public Health Nursing
    • /
    • v.33 no.2
    • /
    • pp.242-257
    • /
    • 2019
  • Purpose: This study examined the life experiences of the wives of men who were born with normal vision but gradually developed a visual impairment, with particular focus on their way of facing and coping with their life crisis. Method: A narrative approach was used to not only understand women's experiences within sociocultural contexts, but also reveal the subjective meaning of their personal life stories through their own voices. A purposive sample of three participants having husbands unexpectedly diagnosed with visual impairment during their marriage was recruited. The data were analyzed using the narrative analysis methods suggested by Clandinin and Connelly. Results: The wives took the crisis of their husbands' visual impairment as an economic crisis of the family. They faced a variety of difficulties, including extreme despair, role changes, and economic burdens. On the other hand, they tried to keep the family secure through a range of coping strategies that were motivated by compassion toward the husbands, maternal affection for the children, and a sense of responsibility for their families. Conclusion: This study revealed the need for financial support for temporarily disadvantaged families. In addition, various nursing and counseling programs for the family members will also be needed to help recover the family functions.

A study on Urban unemployed Housewives′ Financial Stress and Coping Strategies (도시 전업주부의 재정 스트레스 및 대처행동에 관한 연구)

  • 계선자;유을용
    • Journal of Families and Better Life
    • /
    • v.20 no.5
    • /
    • pp.13-26
    • /
    • 2002
  • The purpose of this study was to reduce the unemployed housewives' stress and to seek proper strategies to cope with the stress by understanding stress of urban unemployed housewives' caused by financial management. The survey for this study was conducted in the capital city of Korea, Seoul and other major cities. The subjects included housewives in these areas who currently cohabited with their spouses and had at least on child or more. The preliminary and main survey questionnaires were distributed between November 12, 2001 and February 27, 2002. The results of the study were to establish an appropriate policy in order to improve the economic welfare and to develop strategies or related programs in order to overcome financial crisis in the family economy. the major findings were as follows: (1) The stress level of urban unemployed housewives caused by the financial management showed an average of 2.64 out of 5.0 and the level of utilizing strategies to cope with the stress indicated an average of 2.79 out of 5.0 (2) There were significant relationship between the stress caused by the financial management and the strategies of overcoming the stress indicated positive correlation(r=.378). (3) Relative contributor among independent variables to cope with stress was analysed and at the second phase in the process of the analysis, the subjective variables appeared to be significant variables to contribute to cope with the stress.

Do Islamic Stock Markets Diversify the Financial Uncertainty Risk? Evidence from Selected Islamic Countries

  • AZIZ, Tariq;MARWAT, Jahanzeb;ZEESHAN, Asma;PARACHA, Yaser;AL-HADDAD, Lara
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.8 no.3
    • /
    • pp.31-38
    • /
    • 2021
  • The study investigates the diversification behavior of Islamic stocks against US financial uncertainty. Considering limitations found in the literature, a comprehensive index of financial uncertainty (FU) is used, developed by Jurado, Ludvigson, and Ng (2015). The empirical analysis uses monthly data from four Islamic markets - Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Turkey - for the period from January 2010 to September 2019. Results of the bivariate EGARCH models show that Islamic stocks can be used for diversification purpose against the financial uncertainty of the US because the volatility of US uncertainty does not propagate in the Islamic stock markets. Moreover, findings show that the spillover effect of financial uncertainty varies with the FU forecast horizon. The spillover effect of FU increases with an increase in the FU forecast horizon and becomes significant over 3-month and 12-month periods in the case of Saudi Arabia. The current volatility of Islamic stock returns is independent of the size of shocks in past volatility. The leverage effect and asymmetry have been found in Saudi Arabia and Malaysia. The findings validate the arguments of the literature that Islamic markets are resilient facing uncertainties and perform well during crisis periods. The findings are important for investors in making better portfolio decisions.

The Role of Intellectual Capital in the Development of Financial Technology in the New Normal Period in Indonesia

  • HARIYONO, Anwar;TJAHJADI, Bambang
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.8 no.1
    • /
    • pp.217-224
    • /
    • 2021
  • This research seeks to determine what intellectual capital represented by indicators of conceptual skills, human skills, and technical skills plays a role in the development of financial technology. The consideration of fintech is more practical and economical. The concept of fintech is related to the rapid development of global technology by creating various new technologies, especially computer technology. This research uses secondary data; the population of this study is the top management companies in Indonesia during the new normal era. The sample in this research used a purposive sampling method, and the quantitative method. The results of this research indicate that the intellectual capital variable represented by conceptual skills has a significant positive role in the development of financial technology in the new normal era. This research posits that intellectual capital also has a role in the development of financial technology in the new normal. This is because the new normal period represents currently a new challenge in responding to the economic crisis that is resulting from Covid-19 pandemic around the world. Therefore, new concepts, new humanity, and new techniques are needed to develop financial technology, so that they can exist and encourage economic growth in this Covid-19 pandemic era.

A Study on the Introduction Background of Combined Financial Statements (결합재무제표 도입배경 및 효과에 관한 연구)

  • 김상규
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
    • /
    • v.3 no.2
    • /
    • pp.209-216
    • /
    • 1998
  • The Korean economy has been under the IMF-led rescue programs since the late 1997. For the transparency of financial currency, Korean government had made the Korean firms which are depend on each other financially compose the consolidated financial statements since 1985, because South Korea's financial crisis has been caused by a string of corporate failures that have put enormous strain on the banking system at a time when the won was plunging against the dollar. But there are many problems to get the transparency in the actions and accountability of both public and private institutions, because of the domestic corporations' structural characteristics and the law of accounting. This paper reviewed, therefore, some problems on the consolidated financial statements and advantages to introducing the combined financial statements through comparing the contents of those statements

  • PDF

A Study on Auditor's Opinion about Consolidated Financial Statements (연결재무제표(聯結財務諸表) 감사의견(監査意見)에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Park, Sang-Bong
    • Management & Information Systems Review
    • /
    • v.8
    • /
    • pp.167-186
    • /
    • 2002
  • Since first introduced on July 1974, consolidated financial statements had been concluded or not depending on decision-makings by companies. But the Securities and Exchange Law as revised on April 1992 specified that any listed corporation must add consolidated financial statements and their auditor's opinion to its business report. foreign-based corporations became subject to the conclusion of the sheets and equity method from the time of business closing on Dec. 1995. Now all of domestic and foreign-based corporations, whether they are controlling or controlled businesses, are subject to consolidated financial statements. Business bankruptcies and restructuring under the economic crisis since the late 1997 raised the necessity of the increased reliability and transparency of consolidated accounting information and significantly changed contents of consolidated audit report. An analysis over the past three years shows that auditor's opinions about consolidated financial sheets are mostly qualified opinions whose proportion is being gradually decreased, while rejected opinions are annually increasing in proportion. When compared to the year of 1998, the numbers of those controlled businesses, and companies under the equity method were all decreased, but rather increased when determined on the basis of such numbers per a corporation. This suggests that corporations are promoting business diversification through business separation and share acquisition and advancing into foreign markets as well as domestic ones. Especially, special contents included in consolidated auditing report show a tendency to increase annually. Based on all these findings, the strengthening of accounting regulation will lead to providing more reliable information related to auditor's opinion about consolidated financial statements and raising the information effectiveness and validity of the statements as publicly notified.

  • PDF

Non-Bank Lending to Firms: Evidence from Korean Firm-Level Data

  • Lee, Mihye
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
    • /
    • v.9 no.9
    • /
    • pp.15-23
    • /
    • 2018
  • Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine the determinants of non-bank depository institutions (non-bank financial corporations) lending to firms. The paper aims to contribute to the existing literature by providing empirical evidence from firm-level data and unveiling factors related to access to non-bank financial corporations by firms. Research design, data, and methodology - We used the data on borrowing by firms from CRETOP from years 2008 to 2011. Using the manufacturing industry, we examined what firm-level characteristics explained the increase in borrowing from non-bank financial corporations rather than the banks. Results - Analyzing the firm-level data from 2008 to 2011, we found that firms were more likely to borrow from non-bank financial insti­tutions as the size of the firm increases, implying that large firms have more access to non-bank financing than small and medium-sized firms. In addition, it also showed that small and medium-sized firms moved to non-bank financial corporations for loans. Conclusion - Non-bank depository institutions are not a sub­stitute for bank lending to firms. More specifically, they replace bank lending to firms mostly for large firms rather than small and medium-sized firms. Also, collateral and other firm-level characteristics do not matter in accounting for non-bank lending to firms.

A Review and Its Implications on School-based Crisis Response Team in the U.S. (미국의 학교기반 위기대응팀에 대한 고찰과 시사점)

  • Lee, Dong Hun;Jeong, Bo Young;Kang, Eun Jin;Myung, So Yeon
    • Korean Journal of Comparative Education
    • /
    • v.27 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-28
    • /
    • 2017
  • In this study, the school crisis response system and intervention are examined in the U.S. by reviewing Crisis Response Team(CRT) to give a direction for establishing and improving the school crisis response system in Korea. To do this, a literature review has been conducted focusing on domestic and foreign literature on the school - based crisis response system about the U.S. and Korea. The characteristics of the school-based CRT in the U.S. are as follows. First, in the U.S., the organizational structure and financial support for school - based crisis response has been stated by law so that the roles and responsibilities of region, district, school have been clearly defined. Second, in the event of a school crisis, the school have been shared the role of professional crisis response according to the Incident Command System and coordinates communication smoothly between each area of society through cooperation with CRT. Third, CRT prevents burnout by showing flexibility in team composition so that CRT members are not tired or overwhelmed by a crisis event, and focuses on strengthening the crisis capability of the school itself through cooperation between the school and CRT. Fourth, the school-based CRT in the U.S. conducts a step by step crisis intervention from prevention to prolonged post management. Based on these results, implications for the establishment and improvement of school-based crisis response system in Korea are discussed.

The Empirical Information Spillover Effect between the Housing Market and the Stock Market (주택시장과 주식시장 간의 정보 이전효과의 연구)

  • Choi, Chasoon
    • Land and Housing Review
    • /
    • v.12 no.3
    • /
    • pp.27-37
    • /
    • 2021
  • This paper empirically examined the relationship between the housing market and the stock market to investigate the price and the asymmetric volatility spillover effects. The monthly housing price index and the monthly KOSPI were used for analysis. This research employed the EGARCH model. The analysis period was from January 1986 until June 2021 with periodization centered on the Asian Financial Crisis: before and after the crisis - the end of December 1997. The EGARCH model allows analysis of 'good news' and 'bad news' in understanding volatility. The price spillover effect was observed one way from the stock market to the housing market. On the contrary, the spillover effect was not found from the housing market to the stock market. The empirical evidence suggests that there are price and asymmetric volatility effects in the entire period of analysis in both housing and the stock markets. In the housing market, the negative effects of information were found pre-financial crisis while the positive effects, in other periods. However, in the stock market, the negative effects of information were found in the pre- and post-financial crisis periods. This means that the housing market is more affected by 'good news' than 'bad news' when information spreads to the markets while the stock market is more affected by 'bad news' than 'good news'. It is of significance to discover the variable returns by different information.