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The Prediction of Purchase Amount of Customers Using Support Vector Regression with Separated Learning Method (Support Vector Regression에서 분리학습을 이용한 고객의 구매액 예측모형)

  • Hong, Tae-Ho;Kim, Eun-Mi
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.213-225
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    • 2010
  • Data mining has empowered the managers who are charge of the tasks in their company to present personalized and differentiated marketing programs to their customers with the rapid growth of information technology. Most studies on customer' response have focused on predicting whether they would respond or not for their marketing promotion as marketing managers have been eager to identify who would respond to their marketing promotion. So many studies utilizing data mining have tried to resolve the binary decision problems such as bankruptcy prediction, network intrusion detection, and fraud detection in credit card usages. The prediction of customer's response has been studied with similar methods mentioned above because the prediction of customer's response is a kind of dichotomous decision problem. In addition, a number of competitive data mining techniques such as neural networks, SVM(support vector machine), decision trees, logit, and genetic algorithms have been applied to the prediction of customer's response for marketing promotion. The marketing managers also have tried to classify their customers with quantitative measures such as recency, frequency, and monetary acquired from their transaction database. The measures mean that their customers came to purchase in recent or old days, how frequent in a period, and how much they spent once. Using segmented customers we proposed an approach that could enable to differentiate customers in the same rating among the segmented customers. Our approach employed support vector regression to forecast the purchase amount of customers for each customer rating. Our study used the sample that included 41,924 customers extracted from DMEF04 Data Set, who purchased at least once in the last two years. We classified customers from first rating to fifth rating based on the purchase amount after giving a marketing promotion. Here, we divided customers into first rating who has a large amount of purchase and fifth rating who are non-respondents for the promotion. Our proposed model forecasted the purchase amount of the customers in the same rating and the marketing managers could make a differentiated and personalized marketing program for each customer even though they were belong to the same rating. In addition, we proposed more efficient learning method by separating the learning samples. We employed two learning methods to compare the performance of proposed learning method with general learning method for SVRs. LMW (Learning Method using Whole data for purchasing customers) is a general learning method for forecasting the purchase amount of customers. And we proposed a method, LMS (Learning Method using Separated data for classification purchasing customers), that makes four different SVR models for each class of customers. To evaluate the performance of models, we calculated MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error) for each model to predict the purchase amount of customers. In LMW, the overall performance was 0.670 MAPE and the best performance showed 0.327 MAPE. Generally, the performances of the proposed LMS model were analyzed as more superior compared to the performance of the LMW model. In LMS, we found that the best performance was 0.275 MAPE. The performance of LMS was higher than LMW in each class of customers. After comparing the performance of our proposed method LMS to LMW, our proposed model had more significant performance for forecasting the purchase amount of customers in each class. In addition, our approach will be useful for marketing managers when they need to customers for their promotion. Even if customers were belonging to same class, marketing managers could offer customers a differentiated and personalized marketing promotion.

Prediction of commitment and persistence in heterosexual involvements according to the styles of loving using a datamining technique (데이터마이닝을 활용한 사랑의 형태에 따른 연인관계 몰입수준 및 관계 지속여부 예측)

  • Park, Yoon-Joo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.69-85
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    • 2016
  • Successful relationship with loving partners is one of the most important factors in life. In psychology, there have been some previous researches studying the factors influencing romantic relationships. However, most of these researches were performed based on statistical analysis; thus they have limitations in analyzing complex non-linear relationships or rules based reasoning. This research analyzes commitment and persistence in heterosexual involvement according to styles of loving using a datamining technique as well as statistical methods. In this research, we consider six different styles of loving - 'eros', 'ludus', 'stroge', 'pragma', 'mania' and 'agape' which influence romantic relationships between lovers, besides the factors suggested by the previous researches. These six types of love are defined by Lee (1977) as follows: 'eros' is romantic, passionate love; 'ludus' is a game-playing or uncommitted love; 'storge' is a slow developing, friendship-based love; 'pragma' is a pragmatic, practical, mutually beneficial relationship; 'mania' is an obsessive or possessive love and, lastly, 'agape' is a gentle, caring, giving type of love, brotherly love, not concerned with the self. In order to do this research, data from 105 heterosexual couples were collected. Using the data, a linear regression method was first performed to find out the important factors associated with a commitment to partners. The result shows that 'satisfaction', 'eros' and 'agape' are significant factors associated with the commitment level for both male and female. Interestingly, in male cases, 'agape' has a greater effect on commitment than 'eros'. On the other hand, in female cases, 'eros' is a more significant factor than 'agape' to commitment. In addition to that, 'investment' of the male is also crucial factor for male commitment. Next, decision tree analysis was performed to find out the characteristics of high commitment couples and low commitment couples. In order to build decision tree models in this experiment, 'decision tree' operator in the datamining tool, Rapid Miner was used. The experimental result shows that males having a high satisfaction level in relationship show a high commitment level. However, even though a male may not have a high satisfaction level, if he has made a lot of financial or mental investment in relationship, and his partner shows him a certain amount of 'agape', then he also shows a high commitment level to the female. In the case of female, a women having a high 'eros' and 'satisfaction' level shows a high commitment level. Otherwise, even though a female may not have a high satisfaction level, if her partner shows a certain amount of 'mania' then the female also shows a high commitment level. Finally, this research built a prediction model to establish whether the relationship will persist or break up using a decision tree. The result shows that the most important factor influencing to the break up is a 'narcissistic tendency' of the male. In addition to that, 'satisfaction', 'investment' and 'mania' of both male and female also affect a break up. Interestingly, while the 'mania' level of a male works positively to maintain the relationship, that of a female has a negative influence. The contribution of this research is adopting a new technique of analysis using a datamining method for psychology. In addition, the results of this research can provide useful advice to couples for building a harmonious relationship with each other. This research has several limitations. First, the experimental data was sampled based on oversampling technique to balance the size of each classes. Thus, it has a limitation of evaluating performances of the predictive models objectively. Second, the result data, whether the relationship persists of not, was collected relatively in short periods - 6 months after the initial data collection. Lastly, most of the respondents of the survey is in their 20's. In order to get more general results, we would like to extend this research to general populations.

Bioactive Characterization of Bacillus thuriniensis subsp. kurstaki CAB133 Isolated from Domestic Soil (국내 토양으로 분리된 Bacillus thuriniensis subsp. kurstaki CAB133균주의 생물학적 특성)

  • Choi, Su-Yeon;Cho, Min-Su;Kim, Tae-Hwan;Kim, Jin-Su;Pack, Seung-Kyung;Youn, Young-Nam;Hong, Soon-Sung;Yu, Yong-Man
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.175-184
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    • 2008
  • To screen highly active Bacillus thuringiensis isolates against Spodoptera litura (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae), 46 B. thuringiensis was isolated from 115 samples obtained from several crop soils. Especially, B. thuringiensis subsp. kurstaki CAB133 and CAB162 isolates showed 100% mortality against S. litura. $LD_{50}$ values of CAB 133, CAB162 and HD-1 strains of B. thuringiensis subsp. kurstaki were 0.089, 3.144 and $0.513{\mu}g/ml$ against 2nd larva of S. litura, respectively. The weight of 3rd larva of S. litura which were fed crystal inclusion protein $(1.267{\mu}g/ml)$ with B. thuringiensis subsp. kurstaki CAB133 was about 30 times lass than control group. CAB133 and CAB 162 strains of B. thuringiensis subsp. kurstaki which were taken a highly toxity against S. litura were analyzed by SDS-PAGE, and estimated the molecular weight of the Cry proteins. Their serological identification by H serotypes were showed B. thuringiensis subsp. kurstaki (3abc) type.

Analysis of Acquisition Parameters That Caused Artifacts in Four-dimensional (4D) CT Images of Targets Undergoing Regular Motion (표적이 규칙적으로 움직일 때 생기는 4DCT 영상의 모션 아티팩트(Motion Artifact) 관련된 원인분석)

  • Sheen, Heesoon;Han, Youngyih;Shin, Eunhyuk
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.243-252
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    • 2013
  • The aim of this study was to clarify the impacts of acquisition parameters on artifacts in four-dimensional computed tomography (4D CT) images, such as the partial volume effect (PVE), partial projection effect (PPE), and mis-matching of initial motion phases between adjacent beds (MMimph) in cine mode scanning. A thoracic phantom and two cylindrical phantoms (2 cm diameter and heights of 0.5 cm for No.1 and 10 cm for No.2) were scanned using 4D CT. For the thoracic phantom, acquisition was started automatically in the first scan with 5 sec and 8 sec of gantry rotation, thereby allowing a different phase at the initial projection of each bed. In the second scan, the initial projection at each bed was manually synchronized with the inhalation phase to minimize the MMimph. The third scan was intentionally un-synchronized with the inhalation phase. In the cylindrical phantom scan, one bed (2 cm) and three beds (6 cm) were used for 2 and 6 sec motion periods. Measured target volume to true volume ratios (MsTrueV) were computed. The relationships among MMimph, MsTrueV, and velocity were investigated. In the thoracic phantom, shorter gantry rotation provided more precise volume and was highly correlated with velocity when MMimph was minimal. MMimph reduced the correlation. For moving cylinder No. 1, MsTrueV was correlated with velocity, but the larger MMimph for 2 sec of motion removed the correlation. The volume of No. 2 was similar to the static volume due to the small PVE, PPE, and MMimph. Smaller target velocity and faster gantry rotation resulted in a more accurate volume description. The MMimph was the main parameter weakening the correlation between MsTrueV and velocity. Without reducing the MMimph, controlling target velocity and gantry rotation will not guarantee accurate image presentation given current 4D CT technology.

Effects of Citrus Peel Ethanol Extract on the Serum Lipid and Body Fat of High-fat-diet-fed Rats (고지방식이를 섭취한 흰쥐에서 진피 에탄올추출물이 혈청지질 및 체지방에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Chang-Ho;Jung, Hee-Kyoung;Jeong, Yoo-Seok;Hong, Joo-Heon;Lee, Gee-Dong;Park, Chi-Deok
    • Food Science and Preservation
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.567-574
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    • 2011
  • In this work, the major flavonoid content of citrus peel ethanol extract and the changes in the serum lipid and body fat of high-fat-diet-fed rats were examined. The subjects were divided into four groups: the normal, control, O1 (0.1% citrus peel ethanol extract), and O5 (0.5% citrus peel ethanol extract) groups. The experimental groups (O1 and O5) were fed a high-fat diet mixed with 0.1 and 0.5% citrus peel ethanol extract, respectively, for 10 weeks. The results of the analysis showed that the main ingredients of the flavonoid in the citrus peel ethanol extract (60 brix) were $38.21{\pm}1.37$ mg/g hesperidin and $15.02{\pm}0.48$ mg/g narirutin. With regard to the changes in the serum total-cholesterol level, compared with the control group's $79.1{\pm}4.6$ mg/dL, the serum total-cholesterol levels of the O1 and O5 groups were significantly lowered to $64.6{\pm}5.4$ and $59.5{\pm}4.7$ mg/dL, respectively. As for the changes in the LDL-cholesterol level, compared with the control group's $18.4{\pm}3.7$ mg/dL, the LDL-cholesterol levels of the O1 and O5 groups were significantly lowered to $13.0{\pm}3.6$ and $13.0{\pm}1.9$ mg/dL, respectively. For the changes in the serum triglyceride level, compared with the control group's $74.5{\pm}13.2$ mg/dL, the serum triglyceride level of the O5 group was significantly lowered to $48.6{\pm}11.2$ mg/dL. Finally, with regard to the changes in body fat, compared with the control group, the 05 group showed a significant decrease. In conclusion, it was observed that citrus peel ethanol extract was effective in lowering the total-cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, and triglyceride levels of high-fat-diet-fed rats.

A Study on Economic Value of Daegu Arboretum based on Contingent Valuation Methods (가상가치평가법을 이용한 대구수목원의 경제적 가치평가)

  • Kang, Kee-Rae;Lee, Kee-Cheol;Lee, Hyun-Taek;Ryu, Byong-Ro;Kim, Dong-Pil
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.787-798
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    • 2011
  • An arboretum is defined as a collection of facilities that conserve plant species by surveying, collecting, and proliferating and preserving the plants in nature, perform diverse researches on plants and display the plants in exhibition spaces or outdoors as well as provide the public with educational programs and refreshment spaces according to the laws concerned. The public, however, recognizes the exhibition and education functions on plants of arboretum more importantly compared with the roles to survey, collect, and proliferate plants as regulated by the laws. In particular, arboretum plays a role to offer a pivotal educational place in urban area where the public can obtain an hands-on experience and understanding on a wide range of plant species and natural environment. The study aims to estimate the non market environmental values of Daegu Arboretum operated by Daegu Metropolitan City government by using the Contingent Valuation Methods (CVM), which yields the current monetary estimates for the arboretum. The value estimation was undertaken by using the Double-Bound Dichotomous Choice (DBDC) method, and each estimated value was derived from respective functions based on a logit distribution known to include relatively stable estimates according to the shape of the distribution. Considering the statistical fitness test results, the author estimated the amounts of the Willingness To Pay (WTP) such as mean WTP of 12,718 KRW, median WTP of 11,033 KRW, and truncated mean WTP of 11,468 KRW, which represented the annual recreational values per a person visiting Daegu Arboretum respectively. The analysis showed that Daegu Arboretum created the annual environmental values which were estimated to be approximately 16 to 19 billion KRW. The study also has an implication that the valuation method for the environment of Daegu Arboretum may be effectively applied for estimating the values of other types of environmental goods by altering the locations or goods to be analyzed.

Characterization and Functional Analysis of Obox4 during Oocyte Maturation by RNA Interference (생쥐의 난소와 난자에서의 Obox4의 동정과 RNAi를 이용한 기능연구)

  • Lee, Hyun-Seo;Lee, Kyung-Ah
    • Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.293-303
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    • 2007
  • Objective: Previously, we identified differentially expressed genes between GV and MII stage mouse oocytes using ACP technology. When we study one of GV selective genes, Obox family, we found Obox4 mRNA expression in ovaries that has been reported as expressed exclusively in testis. Therefore, this study was conducted for characterization and functional analysis for Obox4. Methods: Expression of Obox4 mRNA was examined in gonads and oocytes by RT-PCR. To determine the role of Obox4 in oocyte maturation, Obox4 dsRNA was microinjected into the cytoplasm of GV oocytes followed by 16 h of incubation in the plain medium or by 24 h of incubation in the medium containing IBMX. After RNAi, phenotypes and maturation rates were observed, change in mRNA expression was evaluated, and chromosomal status was confirmed by orcein staining. Results: Obox4 has minimal expression in the ovary compared to that of the other family members. When oocytes were cultured for 16 h in M16 medium after RNAi, maturation rate was not changed significantly, compared with that of non-injected or buffer-injected control oocytes. Surprisingly, however, when oocytes were cultured for 24 h in M16 containing IBMX, in which oocytes were supposed to arrest at GV stage, Obox4 RNAi oocytes were advanced to MI and MII. Spindle structure was disappeared and the chromosomes were condensed in the oocytes after Obox4 RNAi. Conclusions: This is the first report on the expression of Obox4 in the ovary and oocytes. Results of the study suggest that Obox4 plays a crucial role in spindle formation and chromosome segregation during meiosis in oocytes. In addition, Obox4 may play an important role in cAMP-dependent signal cascades of GV-arrest in mouse oocytes.

Current Research Trend of Postharvest Technology for Chrysanthemum (국화 수확 후 관리기술의 최근 연구 동향)

  • Kim, Su-Jeong;Lee, Seung-Koo;Kim, Ki-Sun
    • Korean Journal of Plant Resources
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.156-168
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    • 2012
  • Chrysanthemum is a cut flower species that normally lasts for 1 to 2 weeks, in some cases 3-4 weeks. This has been attributed to low ethylene production during senescence. Reduction in cut flower quality has been attributed to the formation of air embolisms that partially or completely blocks the water transport from the vase solution to the rest of the cut flower stem, increasing hydraulic resistance which may cause severe water stress, yellowing, wilting of leaf, and chlorophyll degradation. Standard type chrysanthemum can be harvested when buds were still tightly closed and then fully opened with the simple bud-opening solution. Standard type chrysanthemum can also be harvested when the minimum size of the inflorescence is about 5-6 cm bud which opened into the first flower full-sized flower. While spray varieties can be harvested when 2-4 most mature flowers have opened (40% opening). Cut flowers are sorted by stem length, weight, condition, and so on. Standard chrysanthemum is 80 cm length for standard type and 70cm for spray type. Pre-treatment with a STS, plant regulator such as GA, BA, 1-MCP, chrysal, germicide, and sucrose, significantly improved the vase life and quality of cut flowers. It is well established that vase solutions containing sugar can improve the vase life of cut chrysanthemum. Chrysanthemum is normally packed in standard horizontal fiberboard boxes. Chrysanthemum should normally be stored at $5{\sim}7^{\circ}C$. Precooling resulted in reduction in respiration, decomposition, and transpiration activities as well as decoloration retardation. There was significant difference between "wet" storage in 3 weeks and "dry" storage in 2 weeks. In separate pulsing solution trials, various germicides were tested, as well as PGRs to maintain the green color of leaves and turgidity. Prolonging vase life was attained with the application of optimal solution such as HQS, $AgNO_3$, GA, BA and sucrose. This also retarded senescence in leaves of cut flower stems. Fresh cut chrysanthemum can be transported using a refrigerated van with $5{\sim}7^{\circ}C$. Increasing consumption and usage of cut chrysanthemum of various cultivars would require efficient transport system, and effective information exchange among producer, wholesaler, and consumer.

Manufacture of Cutting-Gouda Cheese using Lactobacillus rhamnosus_p1 and the Physicochemical Properties of Gouda Cheese during Ripening Periods (Lactobacillus rhamnosus_p1을 이용한 절단형 고다치즈 제조방법 및 숙성 중 품질특성)

  • Park, Jong-Hyuk;Jung, Hoo-Kil;Moon, Hye-Jung;Oh, Jeon-Hui;Lee, Joo-Hee;Kim, Myung-Kon;Na, Sang-Eon;Kim, Youn-Jeong;Hwang, Young-Tae
    • Journal of Dairy Science and Biotechnology
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.131-139
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    • 2014
  • The aim of this study was to manufacture Cutting-Gouda cheese and to investigate the change in physicochemical properties of Cutting-Gouda cheese made with Lactobacillus rhamnosus_p1. Lactic acid bacteria were isolated from Gouda cheese ripened for more than 1 year. They were identified as 2 strains of L. rhamnosus, Lactobacillus casei, Lactobacillus curvatus, and Staphylococcus saprophyticus by 16S rDNA sequencing and named L. rhamnosus_p1, L. casei_p2, L. curvatus_p3, L. rhamnosus_p4 and S. saprophyticus_p5. The proteolytic activities of isolated strains against casein were measured using prepared skim milk agar plates. L. rhamnosus_p1 showed the highest proteolytic activity. Cutting-Gouda cheese was made with L. rhamnosus_p1, and its physicochemical properties (moisture, protein, fat, ash and free amino acid content) were measured during ripening periods. Because of the modified atmosphere packaging ($N_2{^-}$), there was no change in moisture, protein, fat, and ash in the experimental group. The total amount of free amino acids in the control and experimental group gradually increased during ripening periods. The sensory evaluation showed that the experimental group was preferable to the control group. This result suggests that L. rhamnosus_p1 has potential to be developed as a new starter for Gouda cheese.

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Effects of Antimicrobials on Methane Production in an Anaerobic Digestion Process (혐기소화공정에서 항생항균물질이 메탄생성에 미치는 영향)

  • Oh, Seung-Yong;Park, Noh-Back;Park, Woo-Kyun;Chun, Man-Young;Kwon, Soon-Ik
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.295-303
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    • 2011
  • BACKGROUND: Anaerobic digestion process is recently adapted technology for treatment of organic waste such as animal manure because the energy embedded in the waste can be recovered from the waste while the organic waste were digested. Ever increased demand for consumption of meat resulted in the excessive use of antimicrobials to the livestocks for more food production. Most antimicrobials administered to animals are excreted through urine and feces, which might highly affect the biological treatment processes of the animal manure. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of antimicrobials on the efficiency of anaerobic digestion process and to clarify the interactions between antimicrobials and anaerobes. METHODS AND RESULTS: The experiment was consisted of two parts 1) batch test to investigate the effects of individual antibiotic compounds on production of methane and VFAs(volatile fatty acids), and removal efficiency of organic matter, and 2) the continuous reactor test to elucidate the effects of mixed antimicrobials on the whole anaerobic digestion process. The batch test showed no inhibitions in the rate of methane and VFAs production, and the rate of organic removal were observed with treatment at 1~10 mg/L of antimicrobials while temporary inhibition was observed at 50 mg/L treatment. In contrast, treatment of 100 mg/L antimicrobials resulted in continuous decreased in the rate of methane production and organic removal efficiency. The continuous reactor test conduced to see the influence of the mixed antimicrobials showed only small declines in the methane production and organic matter removal when 1~10 mg/L of combined antimicrobials were applied but this was not significant. In contrast, with the treatment of 50 mg/L of combined antimicrobials, the rate of organic removal efficiency in effluent decreased by 2~15% and the rate of biogas production decreased by 30%. CONCLUSION(s): The antimicrobials remained in the animal manure might not be removed during the anaerobic digestion process and hence, is likely to be released to the natural ecosystem. Therefore, the efforts to decline the usage of antimicrobials for animal farming would be highly recommended.