• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.665-672
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• 2010

This paper describes Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS) to assess the uncertainty of dynamic pressure calibrator and the expanded uncertainty results that were compared by GUM approximation and MCS. MCS uncertainties were computed using defining a domain of possible inputs, generating inputs randomly using probability distribution, performing a deterministic computation repeatedly and aggregating the results. It was revealed that the expanded uncertainty between GUM and MCS was different from each other. the expanded uncertainties were 0.5366%, 0.4856%, respectively. MCS is a suitable method for determining the uncertainty of simple and complex measurement systems. It should be more widely used and studied in measurement uncertainty calculations.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.56 no.8
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• pp.3097-3111
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• 2024

Since the level 2 PSA of OPR-1000 was the requirement for regulatory purposes, Cs-137 release estimation was contained as the Nuclear Safety Act of ROK in which the Cs-137 release frequency exceeding 100 TBq was determined to happen less than 1.0E-6 per year after the Fukushima Daiichi Accident. However, Cs-137 release estimation from the conventional level 2 PSA of OPR-1000 provided uncertainty due to dominant accident sequence consideration. Thus, this study aimed to develop systematic methods through the overall framework to quantify realistic uncertainty concerns of radioactive material release using sensitivity and uncertainty analysis methods and apply them to OPR-1000. This framework helped to quantify confidential value for the Cs-137 release under the BEPU approach using both parametric and non-parametric methods to cover both realistic and conservative points. Uncertainty propagation analysis showed the unexpected uncertainty increase of Cs-137 release exceeding 100 TBq. The non-parametric uncertainty analysis provided higher conservative concerns for safety than the realistic concerns in terms of economics when compared with the parametric uncertainty analysis. Wilks' uncertainty analysis showed the importance to consider conservative Cs-137 release in order to reach the higher safety need. Sensitivity analysis showed reasonable relationships between engineering safety parameters with the Cs-137 release.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.270-282
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• 2001

A simple measure of uncertainty importance based on normalized metric distance to quantify the entire change of cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) has been developed for use in probability safety assessments (PSAs). The metric distance measure developed in this study reflects the relative impact of distributional changes of inputs on the change of an output distribution, white most of the existing uncertainty importance measures reflect the magnitude of relative contribution of input uncertainties to the output uncertainty. Normalization is made to make the metric distance measure a dimensionless quantity. The present measure has been evaluated analytically for various analytical distributions to examine its characteristics. To illustrate the applicability and strength of the present measure, two examples are provided. The first example is an application of the present measure to a typical problem of a system fault tree analysis and the second one is for a hypothetical non-linear model. Comparisons of the present result with those obtained by existing uncertainty importance measures show that the metric distance measure is a useful tool to express the measure of uncertainty importance in terms of the relative impact of distributional changes of inputs on the change of an output distribution.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.54 no.6
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• pp.2048-2054
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• 2022

The coolant temperature feedback coefficient is an important parameter of reactor core power control system. To study the coolant temperature feedback coefficient influence on the core power control system of small PWR, the core power control system is built with the nonlinear model and fuzzy control theory. Then, the uncertainty quantification method of reactor core parameters is established based on the Latin hypercube sampling method and the Bootstrap method. Finally, under the conditions of reactivity step perturbation and coolant inlet temperature step perturbation, uncertainty analysis for two cases is carried out. The result shows that with fuzzy controller and fuzzy PID controller, the uncertainty of the coolant temperature feedback coefficient affects the core power control system, and the maximum uncertainties of core relative power, coolant temperature deviation, fuel temperature deviation and total reactivity are acceptable.

• International Journal of Precision Engineering and Manufacturing
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.22-26
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• 2007

We describe a new way of implementing absolute displacement measurements by exploiting the optical comb of a femtosecond pulse laser as a wavelength ruler, The optical comb is stabilized by locking both the repetition rate and the carrier offset frequency to an Rb clock of frequency standard. Multiwavelength interferometry is then performed using the quasi-monochromatic beams of well-defined generated wavelengths by tuning an external cavity laser diode consecutively to preselected light modes of the optical comb. This scheme of wavelength synthesizing allows the measurement of absolute distances with a high precision that is traceable to the definition of time. The achievable wavelength uncertainty is $1.9{\times}10^{-10}$, which allows the absolute heights of gauge blocks to be determined with an overall calibration uncertainty of 15 nm (k = 1). These results demonstrate a successful industrial application of an optical frequency synthesis employing a femtosecond laser, a technique that offers many possibilities for performing precision length metrology that is traceable to the well-defined international definition of time.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.56 no.5
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• pp.1562-1573
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• 2024

This study rigorously examined uncertainty in the TMI-1 benchmark within the Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling (UAM) benchmark suite using the STREAM/RAST-K two-step method. It presents two pivotal advancements in computational techniques: (1) Development of an uncertainty quantification (UQ) module and a specialized library for the pin-based pointwise energy slowing-down method (PSM), and (2) Application of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for UQ. To evaluate the new computational framework, we conducted verification tests using SCALE 6.2.2. Results demonstrated that STREAM's performance closely matched SCALE 6.2.2, with a negligible uncertainty discrepancy of ±0.0078% in TMI-1 pin cell calculations. To assess the reliability of the PSM covariance library, we performed verification tests, comparing calculations with Calvik's two-term rational approximation (EQ 2-term) covariance library. These calculations included both pin-based and fuel assembly (FA-wise) computations, encompassing hot zero-power and hot full-power operational conditions. The uncertainties calculated using both the EQ 2-term and PSM resonance treatments were consistent, showing a deviation within ±0.054%. Additionally, the data compression process yielded compression ratios of 88.210% and 92.926% for on-the-fly and data-saving approaches, respectively, in TMI fuel assembly calculations. In summary, this study provides a comprehensive explanation of the PCA process used for UQ calculations and offers valuable insights into the robustness and reliability of newly developed computational methods, supported by rigorous verification tests.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.39 no.3
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• pp.75-83
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• 2024

Accurately assessing and managing risks in any endeavor is crucial. Risk assessment in engineering translates the abstract concept of risk into actionable strategies for systematic risk management. However, risk validation is met with significant skepticism, particularly concerning the uncertainty of probability. This study aims to address the aforementioned uncertainty in a multitude of ways. Firstly, instead of relying on deterministic probability, it acknowledges uncertainty and presents a probabilistic interval. Secondly, considering the uncertainty interval highlighted in OREDA, it delineates the bounds of the probabilistic interval. Lastly, it investigates how much explanatory power deterministic probability has within the defined probabilistic interval. By utilizing fault tree analysis (FTA) and integrating confidence intervals, a probabilistic risk assessment was conducted to scrutinize the explanatory power of deterministic probability. In this context, explanatory power signifies the proportion of probability within the probabilistic risk assessment interval that lies below the deterministic probability. Research results reveal that at a 90% confidence interval, the explanatory power of deterministic probability decreases to 73%. Additionally, it was confirmed that explanatory power reached 100% only with a probability application 36.9 times higher.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.123-129
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• 2011

The restaurant franchise industry is one that could benefit significantly from the use of intranet technology, from its potential for improving communications between franchisors and franchisees, to providing easier inventory and ordering processes. However, there is a level of trepidation among potential users about whether the technology would improve their work performance. This study sought to examine the relationships between perceived uncertainty and perceived usefulness of intranet technology in the restaurant franchise industry. Through a review of available literature, 10 sub-dimensions of perceived uncertainty (Duncan, 1972) and six sub-dimensions of perceived usefulness (Davis, 1989) were derived. Canonical correlation analysis was used to examine the relationships between these concepts using data collected from 163 franchising restaurant managers in South Korea. Findings from the data analysis demonstrates two negative factors and one positive factor in perceived uncertainty that influence perceived usefulness, thus offering some implications of what to consider when implementing an intranet system in a restaurant franchise.

• Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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• 1996.11a
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• pp.415-420
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• 1996

The main objective of the present study is to propose a new measure of uncertainty importance based on distributional sensitivity analysis. The new measure is developed to utilize a metric distance obtained from cumulative distribution functions (cdfs). The measure is evaluated for two cases: one is a cdf given by a known analytical distribution and the other given by an empirical distribution generated by a crude Monte Carlo simulation. To study its applicability, the present measure has been applied to two different cases. The results are compared with those of existing three methods. The present approach is a useful measure of uncertainty importance which is based on cdfs. This method is simple and easy to calculate uncertainty importance without any complex process. On the basis of the results obtained in the present work, the present method is recommended to be used as a tool for the analysis of uncertainty importance.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.1-17
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• 2020

Purpose - Since China has been South Korea's biggest export destination, uncertainty shocks originating from it would influence South Korea's exports. This paper evaluates the effects of China's economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports to explore the transmission channels. Design/methodology - Incorporating endogeneities and nonlinearities, this study employs a quarterly time-varying parameters vector autoregressive model to investigate the relationships between China's economic policy uncertainty and Korea's exports, where the overparameterization due to time-varying specifications is overcome by a novel stochastic model specification search framework. According to previous theoretical studies, this paper assesses two channels, demand shock channel and exchange rate channel, through which foreign uncertainty affects Korea's exports. This paper identifies the primary drivers of Korea's aggregate exports and analyzes the rationales for the time-variant impacts of China's economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports to China. Findings - Our empirical results reveal that Korea's aggregate exports are less responsive to China's economic policy uncertainty shocks and significantly move together with global demand. In contrast, its bilateral exports to China are highly responsive in a negative and time-variant way. Moreover, Chinese investment is an important channel through which China's economic policy uncertainty affects Korea's exports to China after 2010. Further, the time-variant effects of China's economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports to China are related to changes in China's foreign trade policies, global economic conditions, and China's degree of economic freedom. Originality/value - Few previous studies touch the effects of external uncertainty shocks on South Korea's exports. This paper attempts to fill this gap and explicitly investigate the impacts of China's economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports from a time-varying perspective. As Korea is an export-oriented economy, this study provides insights for the Korean government to understand the transmissions of external uncertainty better.