• 제목/요약/키워드: Technological forecasting

Search Result 88, Processing Time 0.021 seconds

An Empirical Study on Future New Technology in Defense Unmanned Robot (국방 무인로봇 분야 미래 신기술에 관한 실증연구)

  • Kim, DoeHun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.19 no.4
    • /
    • pp.611-616
    • /
    • 2018
  • With the recent increase in awareness of the diversification of patterns of warfare and security, technological evolution is occurring in the field of autonomous defense robots. As defense science and technology develops with the development of the concept of military utilization focusing on human lives and economic operation, the importance of autonomous robots in the effect-oriented future battlefield is increasing. The major developed countries have developed core technologies, investment strategies, priorities, data securing strategies and infrastructure development related to the field of autonomous defense robots, and research activities such as technology planning and policy strategy for autonomous defense robots in Korea have already begun. In addition, the field of autonomous defense robots encompasses technologies that represent the fourth industrial revolution, such as artificial intelligence, big data, and virtual reality, and so the expectations for this future area of technology are very high. It is difficult to predict the path of technological development due to the increase in the demand for new rather than existing technology. Moreover, the selection and concentration of strategic R&D is required due to resource constraints. It is thought that a preemptive response is needed. This study attempts to derive 6 new technologies that will shape the future of autonomous defense robots and to obtain meaningful results through an empirical study.

An Intelligent Decision Support System for Selecting Promising Technologies for R&D based on Time-series Patent Analysis (R&D 기술 선정을 위한 시계열 특허 분석 기반 지능형 의사결정지원시스템)

  • Lee, Choongseok;Lee, Suk Joo;Choi, Byounggu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.18 no.3
    • /
    • pp.79-96
    • /
    • 2012
  • As the pace of competition dramatically accelerates and the complexity of change grows, a variety of research have been conducted to improve firms' short-term performance and to enhance firms' long-term survival. In particular, researchers and practitioners have paid their attention to identify promising technologies that lead competitive advantage to a firm. Discovery of promising technology depends on how a firm evaluates the value of technologies, thus many evaluating methods have been proposed. Experts' opinion based approaches have been widely accepted to predict the value of technologies. Whereas this approach provides in-depth analysis and ensures validity of analysis results, it is usually cost-and time-ineffective and is limited to qualitative evaluation. Considerable studies attempt to forecast the value of technology by using patent information to overcome the limitation of experts' opinion based approach. Patent based technology evaluation has served as a valuable assessment approach of the technological forecasting because it contains a full and practical description of technology with uniform structure. Furthermore, it provides information that is not divulged in any other sources. Although patent information based approach has contributed to our understanding of prediction of promising technologies, it has some limitations because prediction has been made based on the past patent information, and the interpretations of patent analyses are not consistent. In order to fill this gap, this study proposes a technology forecasting methodology by integrating patent information approach and artificial intelligence method. The methodology consists of three modules : evaluation of technologies promising, implementation of technologies value prediction model, and recommendation of promising technologies. In the first module, technologies promising is evaluated from three different and complementary dimensions; impact, fusion, and diffusion perspectives. The impact of technologies refers to their influence on future technologies development and improvement, and is also clearly associated with their monetary value. The fusion of technologies denotes the extent to which a technology fuses different technologies, and represents the breadth of search underlying the technology. The fusion of technologies can be calculated based on technology or patent, thus this study measures two types of fusion index; fusion index per technology and fusion index per patent. Finally, the diffusion of technologies denotes their degree of applicability across scientific and technological fields. In the same vein, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent are considered respectively. In the second module, technologies value prediction model is implemented using artificial intelligence method. This studies use the values of five indexes (i.e., impact index, fusion index per technology, fusion index per patent, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent) at different time (e.g., t-n, t-n-1, t-n-2, ${\cdots}$) as input variables. The out variables are values of five indexes at time t, which is used for learning. The learning method adopted in this study is backpropagation algorithm. In the third module, this study recommends final promising technologies based on analytic hierarchy process. AHP provides relative importance of each index, leading to final promising index for technology. Applicability of the proposed methodology is tested by using U.S. patents in international patent class G06F (i.e., electronic digital data processing) from 2000 to 2008. The results show that mean absolute error value for prediction produced by the proposed methodology is lower than the value produced by multiple regression analysis in cases of fusion indexes. However, mean absolute error value of the proposed methodology is slightly higher than the value of multiple regression analysis. These unexpected results may be explained, in part, by small number of patents. Since this study only uses patent data in class G06F, number of sample patent data is relatively small, leading to incomplete learning to satisfy complex artificial intelligence structure. In addition, fusion index per technology and impact index are found to be important criteria to predict promising technology. This study attempts to extend the existing knowledge by proposing a new methodology for prediction technology value by integrating patent information analysis and artificial intelligence network. It helps managers who want to technology develop planning and policy maker who want to implement technology policy by providing quantitative prediction methodology. In addition, this study could help other researchers by proving a deeper understanding of the complex technological forecasting field.

Forecasting and Analysis of Customized Shoes Design in Domestic and Overseas Brands (국내외 커스텀 슈즈 디자인 현황 및 전망)

  • Byun, Hee Jean;Byun, Trina Hyunjin
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
    • /
    • v.16 no.1
    • /
    • pp.382-390
    • /
    • 2016
  • This study has investigated the status and overview of design characteristics of customized shoes, which receives much recognition at domestic and overseas markets. Based on the market research on current consumer lifestyle and needs of the custom-shoes(which is an abbreviation of customized shoes), this study has provided its development directions, views and demands. The design types of custom-shoes have been broadly divide into two: firstly 'style centered custom-shoes'; secondly 'function centered custom-shoes'. Style centered custom-shoes are specifically divided into 3 types; first, formal custom-shoes; second, sports and casual custom-shoes; and lastly, bespoke shoes. Function centered custom-shoes design refers to enhancing the function of personal soleprint which has to be designed by delicately detailed insole and outsole, rather than alignment of exterior parts of the shoes. These are used in professional sports shoes and also include orthopedics footwear and grafted footwear for people who have disabled on foot. Custom footwear market has been highly expanded and has entered value-added market according to increasing interest in foot health and shopping trends on shoes buying like taking shoes as personal expression in accordance with a variety of places and situations. In the near future, custom-shoes can be produced in a couple of days due to the technological advance of 3D scanners and 3D printers. This phenomenon will wants more demands of specific shoes experts such as custom-design consultants or shoes fitting experts, who can overcome limitations of online custom-shoes stores.

Forecasting Next Generation Technology Using Lotka-Volterra Competition Model and Factors for Technology Substitution (기술대체 영향요인과 Lotka-Volterra 경쟁 모형을 이용한 차세대 기술 예측)

  • Kim, Hyein;Jeong, Yujin;Yoon, Byungun
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
    • /
    • v.20 no.4
    • /
    • pp.1262-1287
    • /
    • 2017
  • Recently, forecasting for next-generation technologies have influenced the competitiveness of companies. However, in previous studies, only extract factors influencing the adoption of technology have been investigated. Also, there are few researches on the importance of each decision factors or the competition between technologies. In this research, Lotka-Volterra model is used to confirm the technological competition in the new technology choice timing when the competition is intensified due to the emergence of new technologies. For purpose of this study, estimate the LVC model based on the data of the past competition and then derived the factors affecting the technology of competition and substitution from the literature survey. After that, we confirmed the factor value between the past and the present technology competition. The difference between the factor values derived from the previous step is used to revise the model estimated from the past data base. At this stage, regression analysis is used to derive the importance of each factor and use it as the weight. Through the correction model, the competitiveness is identified through 1:1 comparison with competition candidate technology and existing dominant design technology. In this research, we quantitatively propose the possibility that a specific technology can become a dominant design in the next generation, based on the difference in factor values and importance. This results will help the company's R&D strategy and decision making.

Empirical Analysis of Political Communication Mode at Cyberspace (사이버 공간에서의 정치 커뮤니케이션 양식 분석 연구 : 제16대 공선 후보자 사이버 게시판 분석을 중심으로)

  • Hwang, Geun
    • Korean journal of communication and information
    • /
    • v.16
    • /
    • pp.207-254
    • /
    • 2001
  • This study is focused on forecasting the future of tole-democracy. Many Scholars expect that internet provides technological space needing realizing the tole-democracy or deliberate democracy. Especially in Korea, this expectation is higher than other nations because of political corruption and inefficiency. Therefore internet is intended to considering as new technologies reforming political process. In 16th the general election period, many candidates established home page and used as election campaign tool. And a little of home pages is payed attention to among voters. In spite of using internet as political medium, many political communication researchers have a doubt that internet will realize ideal direct democracy. It's reason is that internet is open and anonymous space. At anonymous space, communication participators is tended to be irresponsible and non-serious. Therefore it is hard that cyber-politics will be ideal type of democracy. In this context, this paper analyzed how pauicipators communicate with others at cyber bulletin board establishing candidate's home pages. Main research questions is how do discussions at cyberspace fulfill the conditions of deliberate democracy. Therefore, concrete questions include; who are participators at candidate's cyber bulletin board; which pattern do they communicate; what is the theme of communication; which effects do the anonymous character of cyberspace influence. To that purpose, this study conducted content analysis on 4,210 written matters at 82 cyber bulletin boards of candidate's home page establishing during 16th the general election period. It can be found that cyberspace in Korea still is not deliberate democracy space and not will be. Firstly, discussion patterns at cyber bulletin board is "candidate with supporters communication space. To be exact, it is said that candidate's home page is "the space of self-convincing among supporters." Secondly, the main themes of discussion are simple emotional expressions; "I support you!" "fighting" "Be vigor" etc. By contrast, real political contents'-central or local political matters - is relatively few. In the mode of expression, real political messages are more positive, logical than simple expressions, candidates private matters. Especially this characteristic will make cyberspace as "mutual slander space" consolidating anonymous characteristic of cyberspace. finally, Cyberspace in Korea still is not real "public sphere" realizing deliberate process. Therefore to be real public sphere, it is needed to participant's ethical maturity and political citizenship. In conclusion, it is difficult that cyberspace will reconstruct the Athene's Agora. On the contrary, Cyberagora will like to be irrespectable area fulfilling the sweeping. Making the deliberate space, technological possibility and ethical condition will have to be balanced together.

  • PDF

An Empirical Study on the Prediction of Future New Defense Technologies in Artificial Intelligence (인공지능 분야 국방 미래 신기술 예측에 관한 실증연구)

  • Ahn, Jin-Woo;Noh, Sang-Woo;Kim, Tae-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.21 no.9
    • /
    • pp.458-465
    • /
    • 2020
  • Technological advances in artificial intelligence are affecting many industries, such as telecommunications, logistics, security, and healthcare, and research and development related to economic, efficiency, linkage with commercial technologies are the current focus. Predicting the changes in the future battlefield environment and ways of conducting war from a strategic point of view, as well as designing/planning the direction of military development for a leading response is not only a basic element to prepare for comprehensive future threats but also an indispensable factor that can produce an optimal effect over a limited budget/time. From this perspective, this study was conducted as part of a technology-driven plan to discover potential future technologies with high potential for use in the defense field and apply them to R&D. In this study, based on research data collected in a defense future technology investigation, the future new technology that requires further research was predicted by considering the redundancy with existing defense research projects and the feasibility of technology. In addition, an empirical study was conducted to verify the significance between the future new defense technology and the evaluation indicators in the AI field.

The Trend and forecast of Regional Aircraft market (세계 중형 항공기 시장 동향과 전망)

  • Chang, Tae-Jin
    • Current Industrial and Technological Trends in Aerospace
    • /
    • v.7 no.1
    • /
    • pp.11-19
    • /
    • 2009
  • Though the regional airlines have grown consistently with world's economic recovery after 2001, now the future of them is uncertain from the current economic depression since 2007. In the regional aircraft industry, there have been two main trends that larger airplanes and regional jets inroad the market. But, the situational change including radical rise of oil price and worldwide recession induces the managerial damage of airlines and it makes them doubt about the regional jet which has been the main stream of regional aircraft after the success of the ERJ-145 in 1990s. Still, most of being developed or planed regional aircrafts choose turbo fan, the future demands of turboprop increase and it becomes a good alternative of future regional aircraft in many market forecasts. Thus in this paper, current situation and tendency of regional aircraft market are investigated with various market forecast reports.

  • PDF

Design Change Factors and Forecasting in the Perspective of Socio-Cultural Framework (사회학적 견지에서 본 디자인의 변화요인과 그 미래 방향에 관한 연구)

  • Min, Kyung-Woo
    • Archives of design research
    • /
    • v.20 no.1 s.69
    • /
    • pp.189-202
    • /
    • 2007
  • This study was carried out to forecast the future paradigm of design from the perspective of change in social environment within which design evolves through the process of birth, growth, development, and decline rather than changes within design itself. In general, before man takes an action, he sets the aim with mental and conceptual value decided internally and he considers various tools and means in his circumstance externally. Then he decides his action based on the most resonable and economic way. This is the mechanism by which all the living subjects including the human being survive and evolve within the given environment. In this respect, the future of design can be also explored and speculated in terms of change of man's mental value and the technology in future (this view is the same with what socio-culturalists see both cultural and technological determinism as a major factor for social change). Based on the view above, the present study extracted major keywords for a possible change of future design based on keywords on the present mental value and norm, and the materialistic technology and economy.

  • PDF

Future Technology Foresight for an Enterprise : Methodology and Case (기업의 미래기술예측을 위한 방법론 및 사례 연구)

  • Jeong Seok Yun;Nam Se Il;Hong Seok;Han Chang Hee
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
    • /
    • v.11 no.1
    • /
    • pp.69-89
    • /
    • 2006
  • Due to the technological developments and industrial changes , studying for the future has been attached great importance. According to the forthcoming ubiquitous computing environment or smart environment, it is necessary for a country and an enterprise to forecast the future or foresight the future technologies . Although many countries have been doing the foresight, it is difficult for the enterprise to try future foresight activity, because the foresight activity needs lots of the costs and time for good results. Also, almost methodologies used in foresight are suitable for country level foresight projects. In this research, a methodology is developed for an enterprise to use easily, and a case based on the proposed methodology is presented. The proposed foresight methodology is developed based on the traditional forecasting methods, FAR, Future Wheel, and Scenario. Especially, the methodology focused on the customers of a company.

  • PDF

The Trend and forecast of world Aircraft industry (세계 항공기산업 동향과 전망)

  • Chang, Tae-Jin
    • Current Industrial and Technological Trends in Aerospace
    • /
    • v.6 no.1
    • /
    • pp.14-24
    • /
    • 2008
  • After 2001, the world aircraft industry grows consistently with world's economic recovery. The environmental changes after 9.11, including the market decent and revival, rise in oil price, and the environmental problems, make the aircraft industry change gradually. The increasing demand of point-to-point flight needs over 200 seat class large jets and changes the main model of regional jet over 100 seat class. And the needs of various flight schedule raises the demand of business jet and VLJ. The competition between airliners including the main streams, the regionals and the low prices goes harder and it needs more efficient airplanes which reduce the cost. In the military side, still the development of 5th generation fighter is proceeding and it diffuses to the more countries. Before its popularization, the 4th generation fighter is chosen for good alternatives of it. And there are some changes in the military demand after the war against terrorism. The army needs more unmanned reconnaissance and they want new aircraft which gives more accessibility.

  • PDF