• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.173-214
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• 2023

Investments in new technologies have grown significantly in size, and science and technology have a large and complex impact on society at large. With people's great interest in technology, the government has the duty to accurately assess the influence of new technologies on society to facilitate their acceptance in society. For this purpose, technology impact assessment should be performed to facilitate a social consensus. There has been research on the initial methods of technology assessment for 50 years. Following various academic studies and discussions based on numerous new technology response policies, coupled with the examination of trends and changes over time, academia and policymakers around the world have paid attention to the multilateral analysis of the impact of new technologies on future society. This study focuses on research changes such as the stage of forecasting factors that should consider the technology assessment of new technologies, despite differences between the development methods for the assessment between developed countries and South Korea. The analysis yielded three factors of technological understanding of awareness, professionalism, and gender characteristics, in addition to a previously identified factor. The three factors are then suggested as forecasting factors for new technology. The findings of this study provide both academic and policy evidence for technology assessment based on the country's Framework Act on Science and Technology.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.497-506
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• 2011

The rapid industrial and technological development has made the human activities for the utilization of marine resources more complex. Marine spatial management is a space-based approach. It is a comprehensive and integrated management approach. The ultimate goal of marine spatial management is the "sustainable use" of marine resources. The partial approach is applied in the existing marine spatial management, mainly coastal zones which involves integrated approach. Also this showed various limitations including restricted mostly to coastal zones, and limitation to implementation tools. However, for marine spatial management to have a reasonable approach that attaches importance to the relationship between humans and the holistic ecosystem, it is important to internalize a central principle in marine spatial management that focuses on the sustainable use of marine resources. In the present study, four central principles are proposed that will eventually be applied through marine spatial management planning tools. These principles are 1) the establishment of a cooperative decision making and planning system that is based on stakeholder participation; 2) scientific assessment of the current status and impact on the basis of ecology, sociology, and economics; 3) reasonable and optimal spatial assignment based on the forecasting of future-use characteristics and environmental changes; and 4) ascribing importance to the implementation of the results of rational planning processes.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.229-236
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• 2017

Technology foresight is the process which investigate long term science, technology, economic and social effects to derive strategic R&D and future promising technologies. This study shows that new systematic framework based on technology classifications of space and action in human society, future six senses was employed as a new research method for effective process of future technology foresight. In addition, to increase the acceptance, forecasting, and uniqueness of new technology, we derived major issues of future society and demand-base products and services through the new process of ICT future mega trend analysis, the findings and selections of future technology, and future scenario based on human six senses.

• Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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• 2001.11a
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• pp.37-57
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• 2001

Digital technology enhanced the improvement of technological aspects in the both broadcasting and telecommunications industries. The infrastructures of each industry converged to one, which impacts not only on technology but also on the broadcasting service. The current broadcasting service is characterized by one-way service, but it'll changed to be customized, or two-way service that reflects the interest of customers. This change requires a new standard to categorize and analyze the future broadcasting service converged and market structure, differing from the present standard based on the transmission channels. This study aims at forecasting the demand of interactive TV service as a representative broadcasting service in the near future, and analyzing the market structure of the broadcasting services. We assume that the present broadcasting and information and telecommunications services such as terrestrial, cable TV, satellite, digital TV services and high-speed broadband service have strong relationship with interactive TV service. First we use Bass diffusion method to predict the diffusion curve of the present five services. Then we analyze the relationship between the present services and interactive TV service by Delphi method. Finally we estimate the potential subscription number of interactive TV service based on the relationship among the services and diffusion parameters.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.76-86
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• 2020

Technology growth curve methodology is commonly used in technology forecasting. A technology growth curve represents the paths of product performance in relation to time or investment in R&D. It is a useful tool to compare the technological performances between Korea and advanced nations and to describe the inflection points, the limit of improvement of a technology and their technology innovation strategies, etc. However, the curve fitting to a set of survey data often leads to model mis-specification, biased parameter estimation and incorrect result since data through survey with experts frequently contain outlier in process of curve fitting due to the subjective response characteristics. This paper propose a method to eliminate of outlier from a technology growth curve using M-estimator. The experimental results prove the overall improvement in technology growth curves by several pilot tests using real-data in Defense Science and Technology Survey reports.

• Convergence Security Journal
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• v.11 no.6
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• pp.3-8
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• 2011

Advanced Persistent Threat (APT), aims a specific business or political targets, is rapidly growing due to fast technological advancement in hacking, malicious code, and social engineering techniques. One of the most important characteristics of APT is persistence. Attackers constantly collect information by remaining inside of the targets. Enterprise Security Management (EMS) system can misidentify APT as normal pattern of an access or an entry of a normal user as an attack. In order to analyze this misidentification, a new system development and a research are required. This study suggests the way of forecasting APT and the effective countermeasures against APT attacks by categorizing misidentified data in data-mining through threshold ratings. This proposed technique can improve the detection of future APT attacks by categorizing the data of long-term attack attempts.

• Current Industrial and Technological Trends in Aerospace
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.12-22
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• 2010

The great recession which caused by financial crisis made steep rise of oil price and the serious problems of the aircraft industry. High oil price increases operating cost and the recession decreases air traffic. After a period of high book order and delivery from global economic recovery, the aircraft order fell down suddenly. Also the Aircraft price and lease rate deceased and the MRO market is reduced, too. But, the air cargo and passenger increase again since late of 2009. So, it is difficult to predict the market movement, most of the forecasters agreed that the air traffic and aircraft demand will grow gradually in long term with the growth of emerging markets like China, India and Africa. And more efficient, safe and clean aircraft is needed and will need in the market.

• Current Industrial and Technological Trends in Aerospace
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.15-26
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• 2011

The airliners are replacing their old fleet by brand new ones while the air traffic has recovered from the great recession. And the delivery and the backlog get almost highest record still in 2010. The single aisle leads the market and it will show harder competition with more efficient challengers. The recent strong demand of new aircraft reduces MRO and lease market and it makes some worries about the bubble in civil aircraft industry. In the long time forecast, the civil aircraft industry will grow steadily with over 60,000 delivery for 20 years. and the commercial aircraft market will be about 31,000~34,000 of them. And the emerging market will lead the growth.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.25-32
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• 2019

With the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology, the patenting activities related to the fields of AI is increasing worldwide. In particular, a share of patent filed in China has exploded in recent years and overtakes the numbers in the US. In the present study, we focus our attention on the patenting activity of China and the US. We analyzed 6,281 and 13,664 patent applications in the US and China respectively between 2008 and 2018, and belonging to the "G06F(Electric Digital Data Processing)", "G06N(Computer Systems Based on Specific Computational Models)", "H04L(Transmission of Digital Information)" and nine more relevant technological classes, as indicated by the International Patent Classification(IPC). Our analysis contributes to: first, the understanding of patent application trends from foreign countries filed in the US and China, 2) patent application status by applicants category such as companies, universities and individuals, 3) the development direction and forecasting vacant technology of AI according to main IPC code. Through the analysis of this paper, we can suggest some implications for patent research related to artificial intelligence in Korea. Plus, by analyzing the most recent patent data, we can provide important information for future artificial intelligence technology research.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.137-145
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• 2024

The technique of experimentally determining concrete's compressive strength for a given mix design is time-consuming and difficult. The goal of the current work is to propose a best working predictive model based on different machine learning algorithms such as Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Stacked Ensemble (SE), Distributed Random Forest (DRF), Extremely Randomized Trees (XRT), Generalized Linear Model (GLM), and Deep Learning (DL) that can forecast the compressive strength of ternary geopolymer concrete mix without carrying out any experimental procedure. A geopolymer mix uses supplementary cementitious materials obtained as industrial by-products instead of cement. The input variables used for assessing the best machine learning algorithm not only include individual ingredient quantities, but molarity of the alkali activator and age of testing as well. Myriad statistical parameters used to measure the effectiveness of the models in forecasting the compressive strength of ternary geopolymer concrete mix, it has been found that GBM performs better than all other algorithms. A sensitivity analysis carried out towards the end of the study suggests that GBM model predicts results close to the experimental conditions with an accuracy between 95.6 % to 98.2 % for testing and training datasets.