• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 대한산업공학회/한국경영과학회 1990년도 춘계공동학술대회논문집; 한국과학기술원; 28 Apr. 1990
• /
• pp.355-364
• /
• 1990

In the classical research, technological forecasting was used in the field of substitution of a new technology product for a old in the developed countries. But in the developing or underdeveloped countries, more interested in the forecasting of technological level in certain industry than technological forecasting in certain product. This article shows the forecasting method of technological level by using a procedure of AHP(Analytical Hierarchy Process). With the historical data of the technological levels in the Korean Civil Aerospace(KCA) industry using AHP questionaire, the Gompertz curve was used to forecast the technological levels of KCA industry.

• 한국국방경영분석학회지
• /
• 제2권1호
• /
• pp.111-125
• /
• 1976

This paper is to explore technological forecasting methodologies and their application to military R&D programming. Among a number of forecasting methodologies, eight frequently used methods are explained. They are; Delphi method, analogy, growth curve, trend extrapolation, analytical model, breakthrough, normative method, and combined method. Due to the characteristic situation of a developing country, the application of technological forecasting to the Korean military R&D programming is limited. Therefore, only two forecasting methods such as Delphi and normative method are utilized in the development of a decision model for the military R&D programming. The model consists of a dynamic programming using decision tree model, which optimizes the total cost to equip a certain military item under a given range of risk during a given period. Some pitfalls in forecasting methodologies and of the model are discussed.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• 제9권2호
• /
• pp.425-434
• /
• 2002

In this paper, we evaluated the technological forecasting based on questionnaires of experts working in internet-banking industry. We prepared questionnaires on the 13 items. We examined specialties of respondents, relative importance of research contents, expected time of realization, likelihood of conviction on the expected time of realization, and their opinions on the levels of domestic's research and development comparing with advanced standards on each item. And we made various analysis based on data collected from Delphi method.

• 기술혁신연구
• /
• 제15권2호
• /
• pp.83-102
• /
• 2007

This study extends the existing method of Technology Forecasting with Data Envelopment Analysis (TFDEA) by incorporating a ranking method into the model so that we can reduce the required number of DMUs (Decision Making Units). TFDEA estimates technological rate of change with the set of observations identified by DEA(Data Envelopment Analysis) model. It uses an excessive number of efficient DMUs(Decision Making Units), when the number of inputs and outputs is large compare to the number of observations. Hence, we investigated the possibility of incorporating CCCA(Constrained Canonical Correlation Analysis) into TFDEA so that the ranking of DMUs can be made. Using the ranks developed by CCCA(Constrained Canonical Correlation Analysis), we could limit the number of efficient DMUs that are to be used in the technology forecasting process. The proposed hybrid model could establish technology frontiers with the efficient DMUs for each generation of technology with the help of CCCA that uses the common weights. We applied our hybrid model to forecast the technological progress of main battle tank in order to demonstrate its forecasting capability with practical application. It was found that our hybrid model generated statistically more reliable forecasting results than both TFDEA and the regression model.

• 한국지능정보시스템학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국지능정보시스템학회 2001년도 The Pacific Aisan Confrence On Intelligent Systems 2001
• /
• pp.156-163
• /
• 2001

Business forecasting is vital to the success of business. There has been an increasing demand for building business forecasting software system to assist human being to do forecasting. However, the uncertain and complex nature makes is a challenging work to analyze, design and implement software solutions for business forecasting. Traditional forecasting systems in which their models are trained based on small collection of historical data could not meet such challenges at the information explosion over the Internet. This paper presents an agent oriented business forecasting approach for building intelligent business forecasting software systems with high reusability. Although agents have been applied successfully to many application domains. little work has been reported to use the emerging agent oriented technology of this paper is that it explores how agent can be used to help human to manage various business forecasting processes in the whole business forecasting life cycle.

• 한국국방경영분석학회지
• /
• 제33권2호
• /
• pp.61-73
• /
• 2007

본 연구의 목적은 미래 기술예측에 사용되는 TFDEA(Technological Forecasting with Data Envelopment Analysis)의 문제점을 살펴보고 이의 개선방향을 찾아 주력전차의 기술예측 문제에 적용해 보는 것이다. 기존의 TFDEA는 복수의 DMU(Decison Making Unit)를 효율적 DMU로 판정하는 DEA(Data Envelopment Analysis)의 특성상 실제로는 그다지 효율적이지 않은 DMU까지 포함해서 기슬예측을 수행함으로써 예측 결과의 정확도가 저하될 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 DEA의 확장된 개념을 적용하여 평가 대상 DMU에 대한 순위를 산정한 후 이를 토대로 기술 예측을 시행하는 방법을 검토해 보았다. 이를 위해 일반적인 DEA기반의 순위선정 방법 중 대표적인 Super-efficiency, Cross-efficiency, CCCA(Constrained Canonical Correlation Analysis)을 TFDEA에 결합 적용하고 이들을 비교해 보았다. 제시된 방법을 주력 전차의 미래 기술 예측 문제에 적용한 결과 CCCA를 이용한 순위선정방법이 실제 실현된 기술 수준과 비교했을 때 통계적으로 가장 작은 오차율을 보였다.

• ETRI Journal
• /
• 제18권2호
• /
• pp.87-106
• /
• 1996

This paper proposes a new model as a framework for forecasting demand and technological substitution, which can accommodate different patterns of technological change. This model, which we named, "Adaptive Diffusion Model", is formalized from a conceptual framework that incorporates several underlying factors determining the market demand for technological products. The formulation of this model is given in terms of a period analysis to improve its explanatory power for dynamic processes in the real world, and is described as a continuous form which approximates a discrete derivation of the model. In order to illustrate the applicability and generality of this model, time-series data of the diffusion rates for some typical products in electronics and telecommunications market have been empirically tested. The results show that the model has higher explanatory power than any other existing model for all the products tested in our study. It has been found that this model can provide a framework which is sufficiently robust in forecasting demand and innovation diffusion for various technological products.

• 산업공학
• /
• 제25권3호
• /
• pp.309-318
• /
• 2012

Forecasting probability or likelihood of technology development success has been a crucial factor for critical decisions in technology management such as R&D project selection and go or no-go decision of new product development (NPD) projects. This paper proposes an analytic network process (ANP) approach to forecasting of technology development success. Reviewing literature on factors affecting technology development success has constructed the ANP model composed of four criteria clusters : R&D characteristics, R&D competency, technological characteristics, and technological environment. An alternative cluster comprised of two elements, success and failure is also included in the model. The working of the proposed approach is provided with the help of a case study example of MRAM (magnetic random access memory) technology.

• 대한예방한의학회지
• /
• 제20권2호
• /
• pp.1-15
• /
• 2016

Objectives : This is a study for technological forecasting, aiming to find out the promising future technologies in KM(Korean Medicine) and deduce implications for the research and development of KM. Methods : The first pool of 145 technological tasks related to KM were composed by reviewing the existing data related to technological forecasting. The steering committee for the research set 99 final technological tasks. With the deduced technological tasks, mini-Delphi(2-round) method was conducted and 6 research items were used-the importance, realization time, urgency, technological competitiveness, the main agent that will push forward the task, and obstacles. Results : As a result on the time when the technology will be realized, 58 out of 99 technologies(59%) were predicted to be realized in the same year domestically and globally. The average of the importance of the 99 technological tasks was 72.9. Among them. As for the main agent to push forward the research and development of future technologies, 'industry-academic cooperation' took the highest portion at 58.7%, and regarding the obstacles to realize technological tasks, the lack of infrastructure(research funds) was the highest at 33.6%. Conclusions : This study shows that the development of basic technologies in the technologies of Korean medicine is insufficient and it is believed that the development of basic technologies is urgent to promote the development of application technologies.

• 한국경영과학회지
• /
• 제16권1호
• /
• pp.120-134
• /
• 1991

Various technological forecasting models have been proposed to represent the time pattern of technological growths. Of six such models studied, some models do significantly better than others, especially at low penetration levels, in predicting future levels of growth. Criteria for selecting an appropriate model for technological growth model are examined in this study. Two major characteristics were selected which differentiate the various models ; the skew of the curve and the underlying assumptions regarding the variance of the error structure of the model. Although the use of statistical techniques stil requires some subjective input and interpretations, this study provides some practical procedures in the selection of technological growth models and helps to reduce or control the potential source of judgmental error inconsistencies in the analyst's decision.