• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.147-155
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• 2023

This study aims to present a method to evaluate the relative risk of failure due to liquefaction of domestic small to medium-sized earthfill dams with a height of less than 15 m, which has little information on geotechnical properties. Based on the results of previous researches, a series of methods and procedures for estimating the probability of dam failure due to liquefaction, which calculates the probability of liquefaction occurrence of the dam body, the amount of settlement at the dam crest according to the estimation of the residual strength of the dam after liquefaction, the overtopping depth determined from the amount of settlement at the dam crest, and the probability of failure of the dam due to overtopping was explicitly presented. To this end, representative properties essential for estimating the probability of failure due to the liquefaction of small to medium-sized earthfill dams were presented. Since it is almost impossible to directly determine these representative properties for each of the target dams because it is almost impossible to obtain geotechnical property information, they were estimated and determined from the results of field and laboratory tests conducted on existing small to medium-sized earthfill dams in previous researches. The method and procedure presented in this study were applied to 12 earthfill dams on a trial basis, and the liquefaction failure probability was calculated. The analysis of the calculation results confirmed that the representative properties were reasonable and that the overall evaluation procedure and method were effective.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.1-6
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• 2018

Reliability based design and assessment (RBDA) methodology is one of the newest directions of natural gas pipeline design method. Reliability targets are used to ensure that safety levels are met relevant limit states in the stage of design and maintenance. The target reliability for ultimate limit states such as large leak and rupture were developed using tolerable risk criteria for individual and societal risk. This paper shows the reliability target can be met through the implementation of periodic maintenance measures during the life cycle of the pipelines. The case study involves the calculation of the failure probability due to equipment impact, the calculation of the failure probability due to corrosion, and the estimation the re-inspection interval for domestic natural gas transmission pipelines.

• Journal of Ship and Ocean Technology
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.42-57
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• 1998

Genetic Algorithm (GA) is applied to obtain optimal Inspection plan for fatigue deteriorating structures. The optimization problem is defined so as to minimize inspection cost in the 1ifs-time of the structure under the constraint that the increment of failure probability in each inspection interval is maintained below a target value. Optimization parameters are the inspection timing and the inspection quality. The inspection timing is selected from the discrete intervals such as one year, two years, three years, etc. The inspection quality is selected from the followings; no inspection, normal inspection, sampling inspection or precise inspection. The applicability of the proposed GA approach is demonstrated through the numerical calculations assuming a structure consisting of four member sets. Influences of the level of target failure probability, initial defect condition and stress increase due to plate thickness reduction caused by corrosion on inspection planning are discussed.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.62-68
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• 2009

Life Cycle Cost(LCC) is adopted to decide the target of safety level in designing suspension bridges. The LCC are evaluated considering two types of uncertainty; aleatory and epistemic. The nine alternative designs of suspension bridge are simulated to decide the safety level which can minimize the LCC. The LCC is calculated through the probability of failure and safety index including the uncertainty. This method results in the useful tool deciding the optimum safety level with minimal LCC as the main design factor.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.30 no.5
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• pp.116-123
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• 2016

The quantitative risk assessment methods for thermal failure in targets were studied using fire modeling. To this end, Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS), as a representative fire model, was used and the probabilities related to thermal damage to an electrical cable were evaluated according to the change in fire area inside a specific compartment. 'The maximum probability of exceeding the damage thresholds' adopted in a conservative point of view and 'the probability of failure' including the time to damage were compared. The probability of failure suggested in the present study could evaluate the quantitative fire risk more realistically, compared to the maximum probability of exceeding the damage thresholds with the assumption that thermal damage occurred the instant the target reached its minimum failure criteria in terms of the surface temperature and heat flux.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.719-729
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• 2017

A considerable research is available on the seismic response of Reinforced Concrete (RC) shear wall-frame buildings, but the studies on the reliability of such buildings, with the consideration of human error, are limited. In the present study, a detailed procedure for reliability assessment of RC shear wall-frame building subjected to earthquake loading against serviceability limit state is presented. Monte Carlo simulation was used for the reliability assessment. The procedure was implemented on a 10-story RC building to demonstrate that the shear walls improve the reliability substantially. The annual and life-time failure probabilities of the studied building were estimated by employing the information of the annual probability of earthquake occurrence and the design life of the building. A simple risk-based cost assessment procedure that relates both the structural life-time failure probability and the target reliability with the total cost of the building was then presented. The structural failure probability (i.e., the probability of exceeding the allowable drift) considering human errors was also studied. It was observed that human error in the estimation of total load and/or concrete strength changes the reliability sharply.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.177-188
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• 2024

The fatigue-induced sequential failure of a structure having structural redundancy requires system-level analysis to account for stress redistribution. System reliability-based design optimization (SRBDO) for preventing fatigue-initiated structural failure is numerically costly owing to the inclusion of probabilistic constraints. This study incorporates the Branch-and-Bound method employing system reliability Bounds (termed the B³ method), a failure-path structural system reliability analysis approach, with a metaheuristic optimization algorithm, namely grey wolf optimization (GWO), to obtain the optimal design of structures under fatigue-induced system failure. To further improve the efficiency of this new optimization framework, an additional bounding rule is proposed in the context of SRBDO against fatigue using the B³ method. To demonstrate the proposed method, it is applied to complex problems, a multilayer Daniels system and a three-dimensional tripod jacket structure. The system failure probability of the optimal design is confirmed to be below the target threshold and verified using Monte Carlo simulation. At earlier stages of the optimization, a smaller number of limit-state function evaluation is required, which increases the efficiency. In addition, the proposed method can allocate limited materials throughout the structure optimally so that the optimally-designed structure has a relatively large number of failure paths with similar failure probability.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.16 no.6
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• pp.655-667
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• 2018

To evaluate the stability of a rock slope with one pre-exiting vertical crack, this paper performs corresponding probabilistic stability analysis. The existence of cracks is generally ignored in traditional deterministic stability analysis. However, they are widely found in either cohesive soil or rock slopes. The influence of one pre-exiting vertical crack on a rock slope is considered in this study. The safety factor, which is usually adopted to quantity the stability of slopes, is derived through the deterministic computation based on the strength reduction technique. The generalized Hoek-Brown (HB) failure criterion is adopted to characterize the failure of rock masses. Considering high nonlinearity of the limit state function as using nonlinear HB criterion, the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) is used to accurately approximate the implicit limit state function of a rock slope. Then the MARS is integrated with Monte Carlo simulation to implement reliability analysis, and the influences of distribution types, level of uncertainty, and constants on the probability density functions and failure probability are discussed. It is found that distribution types of random variables have little influence on reliability results. The reliability results are affected by a combination of the uncertainty level and the constants. Finally, a reliability-based design figure is provided to evaluate the safety factor of a slope required for a target failure probability.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.313-326
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• 2017

Based on the reliability theory and limit analysis method, the roof stability of a shallow tunnel is investigated under the condition of surface settlement. Nonlinear Hoek-Brown failure criterion is adopted in the present analysis. With the consideration of surface settlement, the internal energy and external work are calculated. Equating the rate of energy dissipation to the external rate of work, the expression of support pressure is derived. With the help of variational approach, a performance function is proposed to reliability analysis. Improved response surface method is used to calculate the Hasofer-Lind reliability index and the failure probability. In order to assess the validity of the present results, Monte-Carlo simulation is performed to examine the correctness. Sensitivity analysis is used to estimate the influence of different variables on reliability index. Among random variables, the unit weight significantly affects the reliability index. It is found that the greater coefficient of variation of variables lead to the higher failure probability. On the basis of the discussions, the reliability-based design is achieved to calculate the required tunnel support pressure under different situations when the target reliability index is obtained.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.7
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• pp.543-554
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• 2018

A methodology has been presented for evaluating the partial safety factors on the sliding failure mode of vertical caissons of composite breakwaters and for determining the cross sections of those by Level I reliability-based design method. Especially, a mathematical model has been suggested for the sake of a consistency of code format as well as convenience of application in practical design, for which the uncertainties associated with buoyancy and its own weight can be taken into account straightforwardly. Furthermore, design criteria equation has been derived by considering accurately the effect of uplift pressure, so that the cross sections of caissons can be assessed which must be safe against the sliding failure. It has been found that cross sections estimated from partial safety factors proposed in this paper are in very good agreement with the results of Level II AFDA and Level III MCS under the same target probability of failure. However, partial safety factors of the Technical Standards and Commentaries for Port and Harbour Facilities in Japan and Coastal Engineering Manual in USA tend to estimate much bigger or smaller cross sections in comparison to the present results. Finally, many reliability re-analyses have been performed in order to conform whether the stability level of cross section estimated by Level I reliability-based design method is satisfied with the target probability of failure of partial safety factors or not.