• Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.5-15
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• 2014

Target reliability index in the limit state design indicated the safety margin and it is important to determine the partial factor. To determine the target reliability index which is needed in the limit state design, the six design and construction case histories of gravel compaction piles (GCP) were investigated. The limit state functions were defined by bulging failure for the major failure mode of GCP. The reliability analysis were performed using the first order reliability method (FORM) and the reliability index was calculated for each ultimate bearing capacity formulation. The reliability index of GCP tended to be penportional to the safety factor of allowable stress design and average value was ${\beta}$=2.30. Reliability level that was assessed by reliability analysis and target reliability index for existing structure foundations were compared and analyzed. As a result, The GCP was required a relatively low level of safety compared with deep and shallow foundations and the currd t reliability level were similar to the target reliability in the reinforced earth retaining-wall and soil-nailing. Therefore the target reliability index of GCP suggested as ${\beta}_T$=2.33 by various literatures together with the computed reliability level in this study.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Technology Engineers
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• v.22 no.3_1spc
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• pp.518-524
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• 2013

Recently, probabilistic assessments of nuclear power plant components have generated interest in the nuclear industries, either for the efficient inspection and maintenance of older nuclear plants or for improving the safety and cost-effective design of newly constructed nuclear plants. In the present paper, the partial safety factor (PSF) of wall-thinned nuclear piping is evaluated based on a reliability index method, from which the effect of each statistical variable (assessment parameter) on a certain target probability is evaluated. In order to calculate the PSF of a wall-thinned pipe, a limit state function based on the load and resistance factor design (LRFD) concept is first constructed. As for the reliability assessment method, both the advanced first-order second moment (AFOSM) method and second-order reliability method (SORM) are employed to determine the PSF of each probabilistic variable. The present results can be used for developing maintenance strategies considering the priorities of input variables for structural integrity assessments of wall-thinned piping, and this PSF concept can also be applied to the optimal design of the components of newly constructed plants considering the target reliability levels.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.34 no.11
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• pp.1691-1696
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• 2010

The efforts of reflecting the system's uncertainties in design step have been made and robust optimization or reliabilitybased design optimization are examples of the most famous methodologies. The statistical moments of a performance function and the constraints corresponding to probability conditions are involved in the formulation of these methodologies. Therefore, it is essential to effectively and accurately calculate them. The sensitivities of these methodologies have to be determined when nonlinear programming is utilized during the optimization process. The sensitivity of statistical moments and probability constraints is expressed in the integral form and limited to the normal random variable; we aim to expand the sensitivity formulation to nonnormal variables. Additional functional calculation will not be required when statistical moments and failure or satisfaction probabilities are already obtained at a design point. On the other hand, the accuracy of the sensitivity results could be worse than that of the moments because the target function is expressed as a product of the performance function and the explicit functions derived from probability density functions.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.49 no.6
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• pp.93-101
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• 2007

In general, geotechnical properties have many uncertain aspects, thus probabilistic analysis have been used to consider these aspects. It is, however, quite difficult to select an appropriate target probability for a certain structure or construction process. In this study, minimum expected cost design method based on probabilistic analysis is suggested for design of vertical drains generally used to accelerate consolidation in soft clayey soils. A sensitivity analysis is performed to select the most important uncertain parameters for the design of vertical drains. Monte Carlo simulation is used in sensitivity analysis and probabilistic analysis. Total expected cost, defined as the sum of initial cost and expected additive cost, varies widely with variation of input parameters used in design of vertical drain systems. And probability of failure to get the minimum total expected cost varies under the different design conditions. A minimum value of total expected cost is suggested as a design value in this study. The proposed design concept is applicable to unit construction process because this approach is to consider the uncertainties using probabilistic analysis and uncertainties of geotechnical properties.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.7-15
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• 2017

International standards such as IEC-61508 and IEC-61511 require Safety Integrity Levels (SILs) for Safety Instrumented Functions (SIFs) in process industries. SIL verification is one of the methods for process safety description. Results of the SIL verification in some cases indicated that several Safety Instrumented Functions (SIFs) do not satisfy the required SIL. This results in some problems in terms of cost and risks to the industries. This study has been performed to improve the reliability of a safety instrumented function (SIF) installed in hydrodesulfurization reactor heater using Partial Stroke Testing (PST). Emergency shutdown system was chosen as an SIF in this study. SIL verification has been performed for cases chosen through the layer of protection analysis method. The probability of failure on demands (PFDs) for SIFs in fault tree analysis was $4.82{\times}10^{-3}$. As a result, the SIFs were unsuitable for the needed RRF, although they were capable of satisfying their target SIL 2. So, different PST intervals from 1 to 4 years were applied to the SIFs. It was found that the PFD of SIFs was $2.13{\times}10^{-3}$ and the RRF was 469 at the PST interval of one year, and this satisfies the RRF requirements in this case. It was also found that shorter interval of PST caused higher reliability of the SIF.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.95-107
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• 2002

A reliability analysis on sliding of monolithic vertical caisson of composite breakwaters is extensively carried out in order to make the basis for the applicability of reliability-based design method. The required width of caisson of composite breakwaters is determined by the deterministic design method including the effect of impulsive breaking waves as a function of water depth, also studied interactively with the results of reliability analyses. It is found that the safety factor applied in current design may be a little over-weighted magnitude for the sliding of caisson. The reliability index/failure probability is also seen to slowly decrease as the water depth increases for a given wave condition and a safety factor. In addition, optimal safety factor can roughly be evaluated by using the concept of target reliability index for several incident waves. The variations of optimal safety factor may be resulted from the different wave conditions. Finally, it may be concluded from the sensitivity studies that the reliability index may be more depended on the incident wave angles and the wave periodsrather than on the bottom slopes and the thickness of rubble mound.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.28 no.6C
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• pp.349-358
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• 2008

In performing the reliability analysis for predicting the settlement with time of alluvial clay layer at Kobe airport, the uncertainties of geotechnical properties were examined based on the stochastic and probabilistic theory. By using Terzaghi's consolidation theory as the objective function, the failure probability was normalized based on AFOSM method. As the result of reliability analysis, the occurrence probabilities for the cases of the target settlement of ${\pm}10%,\;{\pm}25%$ of the total settlement from the deterministic analysis were 30~50%, 60%~90%, respectively. Considering that the variation coefficients of input variable are almost similar as those of past researches, the acceptable error range of the total settlement would be expected in the range of 10% of the predicted total settlement. As the result of sensitivity analysis, the factors which affect significantly on the settlement analysis were the uncertainties of the compression coefficient Cc, the pre-consolidation stress Pc, and the prediction model employed. Accordingly, it is very important for the reliable prediction with high reliability to obtain reliable soil properties such as Cc and Pc by performing laboratory tests in which the in-situ stress and strain conditions are properly simulated.

• Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.1-7
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• 2017

The development of effective design allowable values for unmanned composite aircraft is an issue of paramount concern for the industry. The application of conventional manned aircraft structural certification methods to unmanned aircraft such as prototype and technology demonstrators, can lead to excessively long development time and costs. In this paper, the determining method of composite structure design allowable values for light composite unmanned aircraft is presented to reduce to the structural weight. This paper seeks to show the applicability of composite B-basis material values as a design allowable of light composite unmanned aircraft structures. A review of different civil and UAV targets failure probability is given. From the results, the researchers can know that the requirements of light composite unmanned aircraft design allowable should be alleviated, compared to manned composite aircrafts.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.117-124
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• 2015

RAM (Reliability, Availability and Maintenance) has been applied to design and analysis tools which affects system's operational sustainability and its life cycle cost as RAM-c(2009 DoD). RAM-c plays also an important role to guarantee the system engineering for mission assurance. Reliability is highly related to the probability of system failure. Availability means mission capability or the condition of ready to mission. Maintenance includes both the repair to recover the system in the event of failure/unexpected breakdown and proactive maintenance to prolong the design service life of the system or machinery. It is the purpose that this paper is to analyze and conclude the objective service life of UAV. The more UAV is operated, the less the level of its reliability becomes. Repairing failures and supplying spare parts on time, system reliability could be improved up until the time over target. Applying statistical Weibull distributions, this paper suggests the analysis of the design service life and economic life of UAV based on RAM-c with operational data.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.422-428
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• 2011

Optimal reliability indices were found by optimizing life cycle cost(LCC) of pier type quay walls. Failure probability of pier and shore bridge were calculated by response surface method. Then, they were used to obtain recovery cost after damage. Costs for initial construction and maintenance were also considered in finding optimal reliability indices. Target reliability indices which may be used in reliability based design were suggested by numerical examples under seismic load and ship load.