• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제27권3호
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• pp.147-155
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• 2023

This study aims to present a method to evaluate the relative risk of failure due to liquefaction of domestic small to medium-sized earthfill dams with a height of less than 15 m, which has little information on geotechnical properties. Based on the results of previous researches, a series of methods and procedures for estimating the probability of dam failure due to liquefaction, which calculates the probability of liquefaction occurrence of the dam body, the amount of settlement at the dam crest according to the estimation of the residual strength of the dam after liquefaction, the overtopping depth determined from the amount of settlement at the dam crest, and the probability of failure of the dam due to overtopping was explicitly presented. To this end, representative properties essential for estimating the probability of failure due to the liquefaction of small to medium-sized earthfill dams were presented. Since it is almost impossible to directly determine these representative properties for each of the target dams because it is almost impossible to obtain geotechnical property information, they were estimated and determined from the results of field and laboratory tests conducted on existing small to medium-sized earthfill dams in previous researches. The method and procedure presented in this study were applied to 12 earthfill dams on a trial basis, and the liquefaction failure probability was calculated. The analysis of the calculation results confirmed that the representative properties were reasonable and that the overall evaluation procedure and method were effective.

• 한국가스학회지
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.1-6
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• 2018

신뢰도기반 설계 및 평가(RBDA) 방법론은 천연가스 배관을 설계하는 최신의 방법 중 하나이다. 신뢰도 목표는 설계와 유지관리 단계에 걸쳐 관계된 한계상태을 충족하는 안전수준을 가지는 지 확인하기 위해 사용된다. 목표 신뢰도는 대누출과 파단과 같은 극한한계상태에 대한 개인적 위험과 사회적 위험에서 사용하는 허용 가능한 위험수준을 적용하여 개발되었다. 본 논문에서 신뢰도 목표는 배관의 생애주기 동안 주기적인 유지관리를 적용함으로써 충족할 수 있음을 보여준다. 사례분석은 국내 천연가스 수송배관에 대한 굴착공사에 따른 손상확률 계산, 부식에 따른 손상확률의 계산, 그리고 재검사 주기의 추정을 포함한다.

• Journal of Ship and Ocean Technology
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• 제2권1호
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• pp.42-57
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• 1998

Genetic Algorithm (GA) is applied to obtain optimal Inspection plan for fatigue deteriorating structures. The optimization problem is defined so as to minimize inspection cost in the 1ifs-time of the structure under the constraint that the increment of failure probability in each inspection interval is maintained below a target value. Optimization parameters are the inspection timing and the inspection quality. The inspection timing is selected from the discrete intervals such as one year, two years, three years, etc. The inspection quality is selected from the followings; no inspection, normal inspection, sampling inspection or precise inspection. The applicability of the proposed GA approach is demonstrated through the numerical calculations assuming a structure consisting of four member sets. Influences of the level of target failure probability, initial defect condition and stress increase due to plate thickness reduction caused by corrosion on inspection planning are discussed.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.62-68
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• 2009

Life Cycle Cost(LCC) is adopted to decide the target of safety level in designing suspension bridges. The LCC are evaluated considering two types of uncertainty; aleatory and epistemic. The nine alternative designs of suspension bridge are simulated to decide the safety level which can minimize the LCC. The LCC is calculated through the probability of failure and safety index including the uncertainty. This method results in the useful tool deciding the optimum safety level with minimal LCC as the main design factor.

• 한국화재소방학회논문지
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• 제30권5호
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• pp.116-123
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• 2016

화재모델링을 이용한 목표 대상물의 열적 손상에 대한 정량적 위험성 평가방법이 검토되었다. 이를 위해 대표적인 화재모델로서 FDS가 사용되었으며, 특정 구획 내에서 화원 면적 변화에 따른 전기 케이블의 열적 손상과 관련된 확률이 평가되었다. 보수적 관점에서 적용되고 있는 '최대 손상임계 초과확률'과 손상시간의 정보가 포함된 '손상확률'이 체계적으로 비교되었다. 목표 대상물이 표면온도 및 열유속에 대한 최소 손상기준에 도달하는 순간에 열적 손상이 발생된다는 가정이 적용된 최대 손상임계 초과확률에 비해 본 연구에서 제안된 손상확률은 정량적 화재 위험성을 보다 현실적으로 평가할 수 있음을 확인하였다.

• Computers and Concrete
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• 제20권6호
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• pp.719-729
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• 2017

A considerable research is available on the seismic response of Reinforced Concrete (RC) shear wall-frame buildings, but the studies on the reliability of such buildings, with the consideration of human error, are limited. In the present study, a detailed procedure for reliability assessment of RC shear wall-frame building subjected to earthquake loading against serviceability limit state is presented. Monte Carlo simulation was used for the reliability assessment. The procedure was implemented on a 10-story RC building to demonstrate that the shear walls improve the reliability substantially. The annual and life-time failure probabilities of the studied building were estimated by employing the information of the annual probability of earthquake occurrence and the design life of the building. A simple risk-based cost assessment procedure that relates both the structural life-time failure probability and the target reliability with the total cost of the building was then presented. The structural failure probability (i.e., the probability of exceeding the allowable drift) considering human errors was also studied. It was observed that human error in the estimation of total load and/or concrete strength changes the reliability sharply.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제33권3호
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• pp.177-188
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• 2024

The fatigue-induced sequential failure of a structure having structural redundancy requires system-level analysis to account for stress redistribution. System reliability-based design optimization (SRBDO) for preventing fatigue-initiated structural failure is numerically costly owing to the inclusion of probabilistic constraints. This study incorporates the Branch-and-Bound method employing system reliability Bounds (termed the B³ method), a failure-path structural system reliability analysis approach, with a metaheuristic optimization algorithm, namely grey wolf optimization (GWO), to obtain the optimal design of structures under fatigue-induced system failure. To further improve the efficiency of this new optimization framework, an additional bounding rule is proposed in the context of SRBDO against fatigue using the B³ method. To demonstrate the proposed method, it is applied to complex problems, a multilayer Daniels system and a three-dimensional tripod jacket structure. The system failure probability of the optimal design is confirmed to be below the target threshold and verified using Monte Carlo simulation. At earlier stages of the optimization, a smaller number of limit-state function evaluation is required, which increases the efficiency. In addition, the proposed method can allocate limited materials throughout the structure optimally so that the optimally-designed structure has a relatively large number of failure paths with similar failure probability.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제16권6호
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• pp.655-667
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• 2018

To evaluate the stability of a rock slope with one pre-exiting vertical crack, this paper performs corresponding probabilistic stability analysis. The existence of cracks is generally ignored in traditional deterministic stability analysis. However, they are widely found in either cohesive soil or rock slopes. The influence of one pre-exiting vertical crack on a rock slope is considered in this study. The safety factor, which is usually adopted to quantity the stability of slopes, is derived through the deterministic computation based on the strength reduction technique. The generalized Hoek-Brown (HB) failure criterion is adopted to characterize the failure of rock masses. Considering high nonlinearity of the limit state function as using nonlinear HB criterion, the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) is used to accurately approximate the implicit limit state function of a rock slope. Then the MARS is integrated with Monte Carlo simulation to implement reliability analysis, and the influences of distribution types, level of uncertainty, and constants on the probability density functions and failure probability are discussed. It is found that distribution types of random variables have little influence on reliability results. The reliability results are affected by a combination of the uncertainty level and the constants. Finally, a reliability-based design figure is provided to evaluate the safety factor of a slope required for a target failure probability.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.313-326
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• 2017

Based on the reliability theory and limit analysis method, the roof stability of a shallow tunnel is investigated under the condition of surface settlement. Nonlinear Hoek-Brown failure criterion is adopted in the present analysis. With the consideration of surface settlement, the internal energy and external work are calculated. Equating the rate of energy dissipation to the external rate of work, the expression of support pressure is derived. With the help of variational approach, a performance function is proposed to reliability analysis. Improved response surface method is used to calculate the Hasofer-Lind reliability index and the failure probability. In order to assess the validity of the present results, Monte-Carlo simulation is performed to examine the correctness. Sensitivity analysis is used to estimate the influence of different variables on reliability index. Among random variables, the unit weight significantly affects the reliability index. It is found that the greater coefficient of variation of variables lead to the higher failure probability. On the basis of the discussions, the reliability-based design is achieved to calculate the required tunnel support pressure under different situations when the target reliability index is obtained.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제51권7호
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• pp.543-554
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• 2018

혼성제 직립 케이슨의 활동에 대한 부분안전계수 산정과 Level I 신뢰성 기반 설계법에 의한 단면 결정 과정을 자세히 제시하였다. 특히 본 연구에서는 형식의 일치성과 실무에서의 적용 편이성을 위하여 부력 및 자중과 직접적으로 관련된 수위 및 케이슨을 구성하는 재료의 불확실성을 고려할 수 있는 수학적 모형을 제시하였다. 또한 양압력에 대한 영향을 정확히 고려하여 활동에 대해 안정한 혼성제 직립 케이슨 단면을 산정할 수 있는 설계기준식을 유도하였다. 본 연구에서 제시한 부분안전계수를 가지고 Level I 신뢰성 기반 설계법에 의해 산정된 단면이 동일한 목표파괴확률에 대한 Level II AFDA의 결과 및 Level III MCS의 결과와 매우 잘 일치하였다. 그러나 미국 및 일본의 항만 설계기준에서 제시한 부분안전계수를 이용한 결과는 그 보다 훨씬 크거나 작은 단면을 산정하고 있다. 마지막으로 부분안전계수의 목표수준과 Level I 신뢰성 기반 설계법으로 결정된 단면의 안정성 수준에 대한 일치성 여부를 확인하기 위한 다각적인 신뢰성 재해석이 수행되었다.