• Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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• v.43 no.5
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• pp.763-773
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• 1996

Background : Behçet's syndrome is a chronic multisystemic disease affecting many organs such as skin, mucosa, eye, joint, central nervous system and blood vessels. Lung involvement occurs in 5% of Behçet's syndrome and is thought to be due to the pulmonary vasculitis leading to thromboembolism, aneurysm and arteriobronchial fistula. Pulmonary vasculitis in Behçet's syndrome is a unique clinical feature, differing from other vasculitis affecting the lung and is one of the major causes of death. Therefore, we examined the incidence, the clinical features, the radioloic findings and the clinical courses of the lung involvement in Behçet's syndrome. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the medical records and radiologic studies of 10 cases of the lung involvement in Behçet's syndrome diagnosed at Yongdong Severance Hospital and Severance Hospital from 1986 to 1995. We analysed the clinical features, the radiological findings, the treatment modalities and the clinical courses. Results: 1) The incidence of the lung involvement in Behçet's syndrome was 2%(10/487). The male to female ratio was 8 : 2 and the mean age was 34 years. The presenting symptom was hemoptysis in 5 of 10 cases, and massive hemoptysis was noted in 2 cases. Other pulmonary symptoms were cough(6/10), dyspnea(4/10), and chest pain(2/10). Other manifestations were oral ulcers(10/10), genital ulcers(9/10), skin lesions(7/10), and eye lesions(6/10). 2) The laboratory findings were nonspecific. The posteroanterior views of chest radiographies showed multiple infiltrates(6/10), nodular or mass-like opacities(4/10), or normal findings(2/10). The chest CT scans showed multifocal consolidations(6/8), and aneurysms of the pulmonary aneries(4/8). The pulmonary angiographies were performed in 3 cases, and showed pulmonary artery aneurysms in 2 cases. The ventilation-perfusion scans in 2 cases of normal chest x-ray showed multiple mismatched findings. 3) The patients were treated with combination therapy consisting of corticosteroids, cyclophosphamide, and colchicine or anticoagulant agents. Surgical resection was performed in one case with a huge aneurysm. 4) We have followed up nine of ten cases. Three cases are well-being with medical therapy, two cases are severely disabled now and four cases died due to massive hemoptysis, massive pulmonary embolism, or sepsis. Conclusion : Pulmonary vasculitis is a main feature of the lung involvement of Behçet's syndrome, causing hemorrhage, aneurysmal formation, and/or thromboemboism. The lung involvement of Behçet's syndrome is uncommon but is one of the most serious prognostic factors of the disease. Therefore, an aggressive diagnostic work-up for early detection and proper treatment are recommended to improve the clinical course and the survival.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.83-102
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• 2021

The government recently announced various policies for developing big-data and artificial intelligence fields to provide a great opportunity to the public with respect to disclosure of high-quality data within public institutions. KSURE(Korea Trade Insurance Corporation) is a major public institution for financial policy in Korea, and thus the company is strongly committed to backing export companies with various systems. Nevertheless, there are still fewer cases of realized business model based on big-data analyses. In this situation, this paper aims to develop a new business model which can be applied to an ex-ante prediction for the likelihood of the insurance accident of credit guarantee. We utilize internal data from KSURE which supports export companies in Korea and apply machine learning models. Then, we conduct performance comparison among the predictive models including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN(Deep Neural Network). For decades, many researchers have tried to find better models which can help to predict bankruptcy since the ex-ante prediction is crucial for corporate managers, investors, creditors, and other stakeholders. The development of the prediction for financial distress or bankruptcy was originated from Smith(1930), Fitzpatrick(1932), or Merwin(1942). One of the most famous models is the Altman's Z-score model(Altman, 1968) which was based on the multiple discriminant analysis. This model is widely used in both research and practice by this time. The author suggests the score model that utilizes five key financial ratios to predict the probability of bankruptcy in the next two years. Ohlson(1980) introduces logit model to complement some limitations of previous models. Furthermore, Elmer and Borowski(1988) develop and examine a rule-based, automated system which conducts the financial analysis of savings and loans. Since the 1980s, researchers in Korea have started to examine analyses on the prediction of financial distress or bankruptcy. Kim(1987) analyzes financial ratios and develops the prediction model. Also, Han et al.(1995, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2006) construct the prediction model using various techniques including artificial neural network. Yang(1996) introduces multiple discriminant analysis and logit model. Besides, Kim and Kim(2001) utilize artificial neural network techniques for ex-ante prediction of insolvent enterprises. After that, many scholars have been trying to predict financial distress or bankruptcy more precisely based on diverse models such as Random Forest or SVM. One major distinction of our research from the previous research is that we focus on examining the predicted probability of default for each sample case, not only on investigating the classification accuracy of each model for the entire sample. Most predictive models in this paper show that the level of the accuracy of classification is about 70% based on the entire sample. To be specific, LightGBM model shows the highest accuracy of 71.1% and Logit model indicates the lowest accuracy of 69%. However, we confirm that there are open to multiple interpretations. In the context of the business, we have to put more emphasis on efforts to minimize type 2 error which causes more harmful operating losses for the guaranty company. Thus, we also compare the classification accuracy by splitting predicted probability of the default into ten equal intervals. When we examine the classification accuracy for each interval, Logit model has the highest accuracy of 100% for 0~10% of the predicted probability of the default, however, Logit model has a relatively lower accuracy of 61.5% for 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. On the other hand, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN indicate more desirable results since they indicate a higher level of accuracy for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default but have a lower level of accuracy around 50% of the predicted probability of the default. When it comes to the distribution of samples for each predicted probability of the default, both LightGBM and XGBoost models have a relatively large number of samples for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. Although Random Forest model has an advantage with regard to the perspective of classification accuracy with small number of cases, LightGBM or XGBoost could become a more desirable model since they classify large number of cases into the two extreme intervals of the predicted probability of the default, even allowing for their relatively low classification accuracy. Considering the importance of type 2 error and total prediction accuracy, XGBoost and DNN show superior performance. Next, Random Forest and LightGBM show good results, but logistic regression shows the worst performance. However, each predictive model has a comparative advantage in terms of various evaluation standards. For instance, Random Forest model shows almost 100% accuracy for samples which are expected to have a high level of the probability of default. Collectively, we can construct more comprehensive ensemble models which contain multiple classification machine learning models and conduct majority voting for maximizing its overall performance.

• Applied Biological Chemistry
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• v.8
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• pp.29-37
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• 1967

Citrus fruits of ten varieties grown in Chaeju island and a few other fruits for the comparison were analyzed to determined the contents of crude fat, crude fiber, total carbohydrates, macroelements and ash. Acids and sugars in fruit juices were also determined and the characteristic of neutralization of fruit juices were investigated. 1. The per cent of edible part of citrus fruits having the range of 48.5(Daingwoochi) to 72(Onju) were lower than that of other fruits. It was lower by about 8 per cent than that of the same variety produced in U.S.A. It was shown that the amount of rind per fruit might be increased in the citrus fruit grown in the low annual temperature. 2. The content of crude protein were around 1% and higher than other's. The contents of crude fat were below 0.1% in three varieties and over 0.1 in others. The contents of crude fiber were between 0.3 to 0.8% and the fruits with the high content of crude protein were inclined to have the high content of crude fiber and it was also shown that the low annual temperature was inclined to increase the amount of crude fiber per fruit. 3. The amount of total acid were from 19.5 m.e per 100 g of fresh fruit in Byongkyul to 44.2 m.e in Daingwoochi. The high percentage of titrable acid was over 90 in two sour varieties, Daingwoochi and Hakyul having pH below 3 and the high content of total acid. These two varieties were above 10 in the ratio of total acid in the edible part to the total acid in the rind(total acid in edible part/total acid in the rind). The content of combined acid was lower than that of titrable acid in the edible part and vice versa in the rind. 4. Navel was highest as 12.82% in the total sugar content and the lowest content was 4.9% of Hakyul. The contents of reducing sugar in the citrus fruits were about half of that in other fruits. The ratio of total sugar to titrable acid (sugar/acid: the grade of sweet taste) were lower than foreign products . 5. From the titration curves of fruit juices the characteristic of neutralization of juices could be grouped in three types, and other values, that is, pH, the content of total acid, the percentage of combined acid, the ratio of total acids in edible part and rind, the content of sugar, and the grade of sweet taste were also devided into the same three categories. 6. The contents of macroelements were different along to the each part of fruit. The content, in the seed were high and the ones in the rind were low. The contents of each element were in the order of $K_2O>N>P_2O_5{\gtrless}CaO{\gtrless}MgO$ in the edible part, $K_2O>N>CaO>P_2O_5{\gtrless}MgO$ in the rind, $N>K_2O>P_2O_5>CaO>MgO$ in the seed. The content of potassium was especially high in Marumeru and Hakyul and the content of calcium in citrus fruit was higher than others.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.1-38
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• 1972

1. Objective of the Study The objective of the study was to make fundamental suggestions for drawing a forest insurance system applicable in Korea by investigating forest insurance systems undertaken in foreign countries, analyzing the forest hazards occurred in entire forests of Korea in the past, and hearing the opinions of people engaged in forestry. 2. Methods of the Study First, reference studies on insurance at large as well as on forest insurance were intensively made to draw the characteristics of forest insurance practiced in main forestry countries, Second, the investigations of forest hazards in Korea for the past ten years were made with the help of the Office of Forestry. Third, the questionnaires concerning forest insurance were prepared and delivered at random to 533 personnel who are working at different administrative offices of forestry, forest stations, forest cooperatives, colleges and universities, research institutes, and fire insurance companies. Fourth, fifty three representative forest owners in the area of three forest types (coniferous, hardwood, and mixed forest), a representative region in Kyonggi Province out of fourteen collective forest development programs in Korea, were directly interviewed with the writer. 3. Results of the Study The rate of response to the questionnaire was 74.40% as shown in the table 3, and the results of the questionaire were as follows: (% in the parenthes shows the rates of response; shortages in amount to 100% were due to the facts of excluding the rates of response of minor respondents). 1) Necessity of forest insurance The respondents expressed their opinions that forest insurance must be undertaken to assure forest financing (5.65%); for receiving the reimbursement of replanting costs in case of damages done (35.87%); and to protect silvicultural investments (46.74%). 2) Law of forest insurance Few respondents showed their views in favor of applying the general insurance regulations to forest insurance practice (9.35%), but the majority of respondents were in favor of passing a special forest insurance law in the light of forest characteristics (88.26%). 3) Sorts of institutes to undertake forest insurance A few respondents believed that insurance companies at large could take care of forest insurance (17.42%); forest owner's mutual associations would manage the forest insurance more effectively (23.53%); but the more than half of the respondents were in favor of establishing public or national forest insurance institutes (56.18%). 4) Kinds of risks to be undertaken in forest insurance It would be desirable that the risks to be undertaken in forest insurance be limited: To forest fire hazards only (23.38%); to forest fire hazards plus damages made by weather (14.32%); to forest fire hazards, weather damages, and insect damages (60.68%). 5) Objectives to be insured It was responded that the objectives to be included in forest insurance should be limited: (1) To artificial coniferous forest only (13.47%); (2) to both coniferous and broad-leaved artificial forests (23.74%); (3) but the more than half of the respondents showed their desire that all the forests regardless of species and the methods of establishment should be insured (61.64%). 6) Range of risks in age of trees to be included in forest insurance The opinions of the respondents showed that it might be enough to insure the trees less than ten years of age (15.23%); but it would be more desirous of taking up forest trees under twenty years of age (32.95%); nevertheless, a large number of respondents were in favor of underwriting all the forest trees less than fourty years of age (46.37%). 7) Term of a forest insurance contract Quite a few respondents favored a contract made on one year basis (31.74%), but the more than half of the respondents favored the contract made on five year bases (58.68%). 8) Limitation in a forest insurance contract The respondents indicated that it would be desirable in a forest insurance contract to exclude forests less than five hectars (20.78%), but more than half of the respondents expressed their opinions that forests above a minimum volume or number of trees per unit area should be included in a forest insurance contract regardless of the area of forest lands (63.77%). 9) Methods of contract Some responded that it would be good to let the forest owners choose their forests in making a forest insurance contract (32.13%); others inclined to think that it would be desirable to include all the forests that owners hold whenerver they decide to make a forest insurance contract (33.48%); the rest responded in favor of forcing the owners to buy insurance policy if they own the forests that were established with subsidy or own highly vauable growing stock (31.92%) 10) Rate of premium The responses were divided into three categories: (1) The rate of primium is to be decided according to the regional degree of risks(27.72%); (2) to be decided by taking consideration both regional degree of risks and insurable values(31.59%); (3) and to be decided according to the rate of risks for the entire country and the insurable values (39.55%). 11) Payment of Premium Although a few respondents wished to make a payment of premium at once for a short term forest insurance contract, and an annual payment for a long term contract (13.80%); the majority of the respondents wished to pay the premium annually regardless of the term of contract, by employing a high rate of premium on a short term contract, but a low rate on a long term contract (83.71%). 12) Institutes in charge of forest insurance business A few respondents showed their desire that forest insurance be taken care of at the government forest administrative offices (18.75%); others at insurance companies (35.76%); but the rest, the largest number of the respondents, favored forest associations in the county. They also wanted to pay a certain rate of premium to the forest associations that issue the insurance (44.22%). 13) Limitation on indemnity for damages done In limitation on indemnity for damages done, the respondents showed a quite different views. Some desired compesation to cover replanting costs when young stands suffered damages and to be paid at the rate of eighty percent to the losses received when matured timber stands suffered damages(29.70%); others desired to receive compensation of the actual total loss valued at present market prices (31.07%); but the rest responded in favor of compensation at the present value figured out by applying a certain rate of prolongation factors to the establishment costs(36.99%). 14) Raising of funds for forest insurance A few respondents hoped to raise the fund for forest insurance by setting aside certain amount of money from the indemnity paid (15.65%); others wished to raise the fund by levying new forest land taxes(33.79%); but the rest expressed their hope to raise the fund by reserving certain amount of money from the surplus money that was saved due to the non-risks (44.81%). 15) Causes of fires The main causes of forest fires 6gured out by the respondents experience turned out to be (1) an accidental fire, (2) cigarettes, (3) shifting cultivation. The reponses were coincided with the forest fire analysis made by the Office of Forestry. 16) Fire prevention The respondents suggested that the most important and practical three kinds of forest fire prevention measures would be (1) providing a fire-break, (2) keeping passers-by out during the drought seasons, (3) enlightenment through mass communication systems. 4. Suggestions The writer wishes to present some suggestions that seemed helpful in drawing up a forest insurance system by reviewing the findings in the questionaire analysis and the results of investigations on forest insurance undertaken in foreign countries. 1) A forest insurance system designed to compensate the loss figured out on the basis of replanting cost when young forest stands suffered damages, and to strengthen credit rating by relieving of risks of damages, must be put in practice as soon as possible with the enactment of a specifically drawn forest insurance law. And the committee of forest insurance should be organized to make a full study of forest insurance system. 2) Two kinds of forest insurance organizations furnishing forest insurance, publicly-owned insurance organizations and privately-owned, are desirable in order to handle forest risks properly. The privately-owned forest insurance organizations should take up forest fire insurance only, and the publicly-owned ought to write insurance for forest fires and insect damages. 3) The privately-owned organizations furnishing forest insurance are desired to take up all the forest stands older than twenty years; whereas, the publicly-owned should sell forest insurance on artificially planted stands younger than twenty years with emphasis on compensating replanting costs of forest stands when they suffer damages. 4) Small forest stands, less than one hectare holding volume or stocked at smaller than standard per unit area are not to be included in a forest insurance writing, and the minimum term of insuring should not be longer than one year in the privately-owned forest insurance organizations although insuring period could be extended more than one year; whereas, consecutive five year term of insurance periods should be set as a mimimum period of insuring forest in the publicly-owned forest insurance organizations. 5) The forest owners should be free in selecting their forests in insuring; whereas, forest owners of the stands that were established with subsidy should be required to insure their forests at publicly-owned forest insurance organizations. 6) Annual insurance premiums for both publicly-owned and privately-owned forest insurance organizations ought to be figured out in proportion to the amount of insurance in accordance with the degree of risks which are grouped into three categories on the basis of the rate of risks throughout the country. 7) Annual premium should be paid at the beginning of forest insurance contract, but reduction must be made if the insuring periods extend longer than a minimum period of forest insurance set by the law. 8) The compensation for damages, the reimbursement, should be figured out on the basis of the ratio between the amount of insurance and insurable value. In the publicly-owned forest insurance system, the standard amount of insurance should be set on the basis of establishment costs in order to prevent over-compensation. 9) Forest insurance business is to be taken care of at the window of insurance com pnies when forest owners buy the privately-owned forest insurance, but the business of writing the publicly-owned forest insurance should be done through the forest cooperatives and certain portions of the premium be reimbursed to the forest cooperatives. 10) Forest insurance funds ought to be reserved by levying a property tax on forest lands. 11) In order to prevent forest damages, the forest owners should be required to report forest hazards immediately to the forest insurance organizations and the latter should bear the responsibility of taking preventive measures.

• Child Health Nursing Research
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.93-111
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• 1996

The purpose of the study is to identify the lived experience of mothers who have children with cerebral palsy in order to understand their agony. Moreover, the result of study was to find some nursing intervention for disabled children and their mothers. For this purpose, ten mothers who are willing to cooperate with this research were selected at random from those who have children with the cerebral palsy, currently using the municipal facilities for the handicapped with cerebral malfunction. Data collection was done from October 4, 1994 th December 31, 1994. The data were collected by asking the mothers mentioned above with some unstructured open-ended questions, recorded on the tapes with permission by the interviewee in order to prevent missing of the interviewed contents. These collected data have been substantiated and properly analyzed on the basis of phenomenological approach initiated by Colaizzi's method. The results and validity are proved to be credible by means of the individual checking of the interviewed mothers. The results of this study are as follows : 1. When the mother is first informed of the diagnosis of cerebral palsy on her child, she usually misses the crucial timing needed for proper treatment of the child's disorder because she is notified through the doctor's indifference and his apparently inactive, matter-of-fact attitude. At first she suspects the doctor's diagnosis and tries to attribute it to the unknown cause from a certain genetic problem and then she quickly wants to deny the whole situation that her child is really suffering from the cerebral palsy. The reality is too much for her to accept as it is and she would not believe her child is abnormal. Therefore, she even attempts depend on the power of God for its solution. 2. The mother, who goes thorough this kind of uncommon experiences, is totally devoted to the treatment and care of the child and completely ignores her own life and happiness. At the same time, she feels sorry for her other normal children she believes having not enough care and concern. Also, she feels sorry for the sick child when the child's brothers or sisters show special concern for the patient out of sympathy. It is sorry and not satisfied for her that the child is growing with abnormality and neighbor other around have inappropriate attitudes. Likewise, she is discontent with her husband's lack of concern about the child's treatment. She believes that the health care system in this society isn't fulfilling its due purpose. In the state of her utmost distress and anxiety, she always feels the need of competent consultants, and is angry about that her child is treated as an abnormal being, she is trying to hide the child from other people and to make him or her disappear, if possible. Although she doesn't have harmonious relation with her husband, she id happy when he shows his affection for the child and she feels relieved and thankful when the relatives don't mention about the child's condition Since the child's overall status of health is continuously in unstable conditions, requiring her all-time readiness for an emergency, she feels guilty of her child's illness toward the fEmily members as if it was her own fault to have borne such an abnormal child and she feels responsible for the child morally and financially if necessary Because her life is centered on taking care of the child, she cannot afford to enjoy her own life and happiness. She is a lonely mother, fatigued, with no proper relationship with other people around her. With this sense of guilt and responsibility as a mother of an unusual disease, she has no choice but to grieve her destiny from which she is not allowed to escape. 3. Nevertheless, the mother with the child suffering from the cerebral palsy does not easily give up the hope of getting her child cured and she believes that in the long run, though slower than hoped, her abnormal son or daughter will be eventually cured to become a normal sibling someday. This kind of hope is sustained by the mother's strong faith coming from observing the progress of other similar children getting better. Sometimes she is encouraged to have this faith by other mothers who share the same painful experiences, believing that her child will improve even more rapidly than others with the same palsy. Full of hope, she painstakingly waits for the child's healing. Moreover, she plans to have another child. she thinks that the patient child's brothers and sisters only can truly understand and look after the patients. However, when she notices that the progress of other children under the treatment does not look so hopeful, she is distressed by the thoughts that her child may never get well. Too, she is worried that the patient's brother or sister will be born as the same invalid with the cerebral disease. She is discouraged to have another baby as much as she is encouraged to. She is also troubled by the thought that in case she has another baby, she will have to be forced. to neglect the patient child, especially when she does have an extra hand or some reliable person to help her with taking care of the patient.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.123-138
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• 2017

Since the stock market is driven by the expectation of traders, studies have been conducted to predict stock price movements through analysis of various sources of text data. In order to predict stock price movements, research has been conducted not only on the relationship between text data and fluctuations in stock prices, but also on the trading stocks based on news articles and social media responses. Studies that predict the movements of stock prices have also applied classification algorithms with constructing term-document matrix in the same way as other text mining approaches. Because the document contains a lot of words, it is better to select words that contribute more for building a term-document matrix. Based on the frequency of words, words that show too little frequency or importance are removed. It also selects words according to their contribution by measuring the degree to which a word contributes to correctly classifying a document. The basic idea of constructing a term-document matrix was to collect all the documents to be analyzed and to select and use the words that have an influence on the classification. In this study, we analyze the documents for each individual item and select the words that are irrelevant for all categories as neutral words. We extract the words around the selected neutral word and use it to generate the term-document matrix. The neutral word itself starts with the idea that the stock movement is less related to the existence of the neutral words, and that the surrounding words of the neutral word are more likely to affect the stock price movements. And apply it to the algorithm that classifies the stock price fluctuations with the generated term-document matrix. In this study, we firstly removed stop words and selected neutral words for each stock. And we used a method to exclude words that are included in news articles for other stocks among the selected words. Through the online news portal, we collected four months of news articles on the top 10 market cap stocks. We split the news articles into 3 month news data as training data and apply the remaining one month news articles to the model to predict the stock price movements of the next day. We used SVM, Boosting and Random Forest for building models and predicting the movements of stock prices. The stock market opened for four months (2016/02/01 ~ 2016/05/31) for a total of 80 days, using the initial 60 days as a training set and the remaining 20 days as a test set. The proposed word - based algorithm in this study showed better classification performance than the word selection method based on sparsity. This study predicted stock price volatility by collecting and analyzing news articles of the top 10 stocks in market cap. We used the term - document matrix based classification model to estimate the stock price fluctuations and compared the performance of the existing sparse - based word extraction method and the suggested method of removing words from the term - document matrix. The suggested method differs from the word extraction method in that it uses not only the news articles for the corresponding stock but also other news items to determine the words to extract. In other words, it removed not only the words that appeared in all the increase and decrease but also the words that appeared common in the news for other stocks. When the prediction accuracy was compared, the suggested method showed higher accuracy. The limitation of this study is that the stock price prediction was set up to classify the rise and fall, and the experiment was conducted only for the top ten stocks. The 10 stocks used in the experiment do not represent the entire stock market. In addition, it is difficult to show the investment performance because stock price fluctuation and profit rate may be different. Therefore, it is necessary to study the research using more stocks and the yield prediction through trading simulation.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.63-83
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• 2019

Investors prefer to look for trading points based on the graph shown in the chart rather than complex analysis, such as corporate intrinsic value analysis and technical auxiliary index analysis. However, the pattern analysis technique is difficult and computerized less than the needs of users. In recent years, there have been many cases of studying stock price patterns using various machine learning techniques including neural networks in the field of artificial intelligence(AI). In particular, the development of IT technology has made it easier to analyze a huge number of chart data to find patterns that can predict stock prices. Although short-term forecasting power of prices has increased in terms of performance so far, long-term forecasting power is limited and is used in short-term trading rather than long-term investment. Other studies have focused on mechanically and accurately identifying patterns that were not recognized by past technology, but it can be vulnerable in practical areas because it is a separate matter whether the patterns found are suitable for trading. When they find a meaningful pattern, they find a point that matches the pattern. They then measure their performance after n days, assuming that they have bought at that point in time. Since this approach is to calculate virtual revenues, there can be many disparities with reality. The existing research method tries to find a pattern with stock price prediction power, but this study proposes to define the patterns first and to trade when the pattern with high success probability appears. The M & W wave pattern published by Merrill(1980) is simple because we can distinguish it by five turning points. Despite the report that some patterns have price predictability, there were no performance reports used in the actual market. The simplicity of a pattern consisting of five turning points has the advantage of reducing the cost of increasing pattern recognition accuracy. In this study, 16 patterns of up conversion and 16 patterns of down conversion are reclassified into ten groups so that they can be easily implemented by the system. Only one pattern with high success rate per group is selected for trading. Patterns that had a high probability of success in the past are likely to succeed in the future. So we trade when such a pattern occurs. It is a real situation because it is measured assuming that both the buy and sell have been executed. We tested three ways to calculate the turning point. The first method, the minimum change rate zig-zag method, removes price movements below a certain percentage and calculates the vertex. In the second method, high-low line zig-zag, the high price that meets the n-day high price line is calculated at the peak price, and the low price that meets the n-day low price line is calculated at the valley price. In the third method, the swing wave method, the high price in the center higher than n high prices on the left and right is calculated as the peak price. If the central low price is lower than the n low price on the left and right, it is calculated as valley price. The swing wave method was superior to the other methods in the test results. It is interpreted that the transaction after checking the completion of the pattern is more effective than the transaction in the unfinished state of the pattern. Genetic algorithms(GA) were the most suitable solution, although it was virtually impossible to find patterns with high success rates because the number of cases was too large in this simulation. We also performed the simulation using the Walk-forward Analysis(WFA) method, which tests the test section and the application section separately. So we were able to respond appropriately to market changes. In this study, we optimize the stock portfolio because there is a risk of over-optimized if we implement the variable optimality for each individual stock. Therefore, we selected the number of constituent stocks as 20 to increase the effect of diversified investment while avoiding optimization. We tested the KOSPI market by dividing it into six categories. In the results, the portfolio of small cap stock was the most successful and the high vol stock portfolio was the second best. This shows that patterns need to have some price volatility in order for patterns to be shaped, but volatility is not the best.

• MISULJARYO - National Museum of Korea Art Journal
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• v.96
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• pp.239-260
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• 2019

This paper examines the circulation and dissemination of painting during and after the nineteenth century through a case study on the One Hundred Fans paintings produced as decorative folding screens at the time. One Hundred Fans paintings refer to depictions of layers of fans in various shapes on which pictures of diverse themes are drawn. Fans and paintings on fans were depicted on paintings before the nineteenth century. However, it was in the nineteenth century that they began to be applied as subject matter for decorative paintings. Reflecting the trend of enjoying extravagant hobbies, fans and paintings on fans were mainly produced as folding screens. The folding screen of One Hundred Fans from the collection of the Museum am Rothenbaum Kulturen und Künste der Welt (hereafter Rothenbaum Museum) in Germany was first introduced to Korean in the exhibition The City in Art, Art in the City held at the National Museum of Korea in 2016. Each panel in this six-panel folding screen features more than five different fans painted with diverse topics. This folding screen is of particular significance since the National Museum of Korea holds the original drawings. In the nineteenth century, calligraphy and painting that had formerly been enjoyed by Joseon royal family members and the nobility in private spaces began to spread among common people and was distributed through markets. In accordance with the trend of adorning households, colorful decorative paintings were preferred, leading to the popularization of the production of One Hundred Fans folding screens with pictures in different shapes and themes. A majority of the Korean collection in the Rothenbaum Museum belonged to Heinrich Constantin Eduard Meyer(1841~1926), a German businessman who served as the Joseon consul general in Germany. From the late 1890s until 1905, Meyer traveled back and forth between Joseon and Germany and collected a wide range of Korean artifacts. After returning to Germany, he sequentially donated his collections, including One Hundred Fans, to the Rothenbaum Museum. Folding screens like One Hundred Fans with their fresh and decorative beauty may have attracted the attention of foreigners living in Joseon. The One Hundred Fans at the Rothenbaum Museum is an intriguing work in that during its treatment, a piece of paper with the inscription of the place name "Donghyeon" was found pasted upside down on the back of the second panel. Donghyeon was situated in between Euljiro 1-ga and Euljiro 2-ga in present-day Seoul. During the Joseon Dynasty, a domestic handicraft industry boomed in the area based on licensed shops and government offices, including the Dohwaseo (Royal Bureau of Painting), Hyeminseo (Royal Bureau of Public Dispensary), and Jangagwon (Royal Bureau of Music). In fact, in the early 1900s, shops selling calligraphy and painting existed in Donghyeon. Thus, it is very likely that the shops where Meyer purchased his collection of calligraphy and painting were located in Donghyeon. The six-panel folding screen One Hundred Fans in the collection of the Rothenbaum Museum is thought to have acquired its present form during a process of restoring Korean artifacts works in the 1980s. The original drawings of One Hundred Fans currently housed in the National Museum of Korea was acquired by the National Folk Museum of Korea between 1945 and 1950. Among the seven drawings of the painting, six indicate the order of their panels in the margins, which relates that the painting was originally an eight-panel folding screen. Each drawing shows more than five different fans. The details of these fans, including small decorations and patterns on the ribs, are realistically depicted. The names of the colors to be applied, including 'red ocher', 'red', 'ink', and 'blue', are written on most of the fans, while some are left empty or 'oil' is indicated on them. Ten fans have sketches of flowers, plants, and insects or historical figures. A comparison between these drawings and the folding screen of One Hundred Fans at the Rothenbaum Museum has revealed that their size and proportion are identical. This shows that the Rothenbaum Museum painting follows the directions set forth in the original drawings. The fans on the folding screen of One Hundred Fans at the Rothenbaum Museum are painted with images on diverse themes, including landscapes, narrative figures, birds and flowers, birds and animals, plants and insects, and fish and crabs. In particular, flowers and butterflies and fish and crabs were popular themes favored by nineteenth century Joseon painters. It is noteworthy that the folding screen One Hundred Fans at the Rothenbaum Museum includes several scenes recalling the typical painting style of Kim Hong-do, unlike other folding screens of One Hundred Fans or Various Paintings and Calligraphy. As a case in point, the theme of "Elegant Gathering in the Western Garden" is depicted in the Rothenbaum folding screen even though it is not commonly included in folding screens of One Hundred Fans or One Hundred Paintings due to spatial limitations. The scene of "Elegant Gathering in the Western Garden" in the Rothenbaum folding screen bears a resemblance to Kim Hong-do's folding screen of Elegant Gathering in the Western Garden at the National Museum of Korea in terms of its composition and style. Moreover, a few scenes on the Rothenbaum folding screen are similar to examples in the Painting Album of Byeongjin Year produced by Kim Hong-do in 1796. The painter who drew the fan paintings on the Rothenbaum folding screen is presumed to have been influenced by Kim Hong-do since the fan paintings of a landscape similar to Sainsam Rock, an Elegant Gathering in the Western Garden, and a Pair of Pheasants are all reminiscent of Kim's style. These paintings in the style of Kim Hong-do are reproduced on the fans left empty in the original drawings. The figure who produced both the original drawings and fan paintings appears to have been a professional painter influenced by Kim Hong-do. He might have appreciated Kim's Painting Album of Byeongjin Year or created duplicates of Painting Album of Byeongjin Year for circulation in the art market. We have so far identified about ten folding screens remaining with the One Hundred Fans. The composition of these folding screens are similar each other except for a slight difference in the number and proportion of the fans or reversed left and right sides of the fans. Such uniform composition can be also found in the paintings of scholar's accoutrements in the nineteenth century. This suggests that the increasing demand for calligraphy and painting in the nineteenth century led to the application of manuals for the mass production of decorative paintings. As the demand for colorful decorative folding screens with intricate designs increased from the nineteenth century, original drawings began to be used as models for producing various paintings. These were fully utilized when making large-scale folding screens with images such as Guo Ziyi's Enjoyment-of-Life Banquet, Banquet of the Queen Mother of the West, One Hundred Children, and the Sun, Cranes and Heavenly Peaches, all of which entailed complicated patterns. In fact, several designs repeatedly emerge in the extant folding screens, suggesting the use of original drawings as models. A tendency toward using original drawings as models for producing folding screens in large quantities in accordance with market demand is reflected in the production of the folding screens of One Hundred Fans filled with fans in different shapes and fan paintings on diverse themes. In the case of the folding screens of One Hundred Paintings, bordering frames are drawn first and then various paintings are executed inside the frames. In folding screens of One Hundred Fans, however, fans in diverse forms were drawn first. Accordingly, it must have been difficult to produce them in bulk. Existing examples are relatively fewer than other folding screens. As discussed above, the folding screen of One Hundred Fans at the Rothenbaum Museum and its original drawings at the National Museum of Korea aptly demonstrate the late Joseon painting trend of embracing and employing new painting styles. Further in-depth research into the Rothenbaum painting is required in that it is a rare example exhibiting the influence of Kim Hong-do compared to other paintings on the theme of One Hundred Fans whose composition and painting style are more similar to those found in the work of Bak Gi-jun.

• Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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• v.44 no.4
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• pp.822-835
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• 1997

Background : There have been many in vitro evidences that interleukin-4(IL-4) might be the most important cytokine inducing IgE synthesis from B-cells, and interferon-gamma(IFN-$\gamma$) might be a main cytokine antagonizing IL-4-mediated IgE synthesis. Recently some reports demonstrated that IFN-$\gamma$ might be used as a new therapeutic modality in some allergic diseases with high serum IgE level, such as atopic dermatitis or bronchial asthma. To evaluate the in vivo effect of IFN-$\gamma$ in bronchial asthma we tried a clinical study. Methods : Fifty bronchial asthmatics(serum IgE level over 200 IU/ml) who did not respond to inhaled or systemic corticosteroid treatment, and 17 healthy nonsmoking volunteers were included in this study. The CD 23 expressions of peripheral B-cells, the IL-4 activities of peripheral T-cells, the serum soluble CD23(sCD23) levels, and the superoxide anion(${O_2}^-$) generations by peripheral PMN were compared between bronchial asthmatics and normal subjects. The IL-4 activities of peripheral T-cells were analyzed by T-cell supernatant (T-sup)-induced CD23 expression from tonsil B-cells. In bronchial asthmatics the serum IgE levels and histamine $PC_{20}$ in addition to the above parameters were also compared before and after IFN-$\gamma$ treatment. IFN-$\gamma$ was administered subcutaneously with a weekly dose of 30,000 IU per kilogram of body weight for 4 weeks. Results : The ${O_2}^-$ generations by peripheral PMNs in bronchial asthmatics were higher than normal subjects($8.23{\pm}0.94$ vs $5.00{\pm}0.68\;nmol/1{\times}10^6$ cells, P<0.05), and significantly decreased after IFN-$\gamma$ treatment compared to initial values($3.69{\pm}0.88$ vs $8.61{\pm}1.53\;nmol/1{\times}10^6$ cells, P<0.05). CD23 expression of peripheral B-cells in bronchial asthmatics was higher than normal subjects($47.47{\pm}2.96%$, vs $31.62{\pm}1.92%$, P<0.05), but showed no significant change after IFN-$\gamma$ treatment. The serum sCD23 levels in bronchial asthmatics were slightly higher than normal subjects($191.04{\pm}23.3\;U/ml$ vs $162.85{\pm}4.85\;U/ml$), and 11(64.7%) of 17 patients showed a decreasing pattern in their serum sCD23 levels after IFN-$\gamma$ treatment. However the means of serum sCD23 levels were not different before and after IFN-$\gamma$ treatment. The IL-4 activities of peripheral T-cells in bronchial asthmatics were slightly higher than normal subjects($22.48{\pm}6.81%$ vs $18.90{\pm}2.43%$), and slightly increased after IFN-$\gamma$ treatment($27.90{\pm}2.56%$). Nine(60%) of 15 patients showed a decreasing pattern in their serum IgE levels after IFN-$\gamma$ treatment. And the levels of serum IgE were significantly decreased after IFN-$\gamma$ treatment compared to initial values ($658.67{\pm}120.84\;IU/ml$ vs $1394.32{\pm}314.42\;IU/ml$, P<0.05). Ten(83.3%) of 12 patients showed an improving pattern in bronchial hyperresponsiveness after IFN-$\gamma$ treatment, and the means of histamine $PC_{20}$ were significantly increased after IFN-$\gamma$ treatment compared to initial values ($1.22{\pm}0.29mg/ml$ vs $0.69{\pm}0.17mg/ml$, P<0.05). Conclusion : Our results suggest that IFN-$\gamma$ may be useful as well as safety in the treatment of bronchial asthmatics with high serum IgE level and that in vivo effects of IFN-$\gamma$ may be different from its in vitro effects on the regulations of IgE synthesis or the respiratory burst of PMN.

• Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.1-32
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• 2008

Brown and Dacin (1997) have investigated the relationship between corporate associations and product evaluations. Their study focused on the effects of associations with a company's corporate ability (CA) and its corporate social responsibility (CSR) on consumers' product evaluations. Their study has found that both of CA and CSR influenced product evaluation but CA association has a stronger effect than CSR associations. Brown and Dacin (1997) have, however, claimed that there are few researches on how corporate association impacts product responses. Accordingly, some of researchers have found the variables to moderate or to mediate the relationship between the corporate association and the product responses. In particular, there has been existed a few of studies that tested the influence of the reputation on the product-relevant perceived risk, but the effects of two types of the corporate association on the product-relevant perceived risk were not identified so far. The primary goal of this article is to identify and empirically examine some variables to moderate the effects of CA association and CSR association on the perceived risk of the product. In this articles, we take the concept of the corporate associations that Brown and Dacin (1997) had proposed. CA association is those association related to the company's expertise in producing and delivering its outputs and CSR association reflected the organization's status and activities with respect to its perceived societal obligations. Also, this study defines the risk, which is the uncertainty or loss of the product and corporate that consumers have taken in a particular purchase decision or after having purchased. The risk is classified into product-relevant performance risk and financial risk. Performance risk is the possibility or the consequence of a product not functioning at some expected level and financial risk is the monetary loss one perceives to be incurring if a product does not function at some expected level. In relation to consumer's knowledge, expert consumers have much of the experiences or knowledge of the product in consumer position and novice consumers does not. The model tested in this article are shown in Figure 1. The model indicates that both of CA association and CSR association influence on performance risk and financial risk. In addition, the effects of CA and CSR are moderated by product category knowledge (product knowledge) and product category involvement (product involvement). In this study, the relationships between the corporate association and product-relevant perceived risk are hypothesized as the following form. For example, Hypothesis 1a($H_{1a}$) is represented that CA association has a positive influence on the performance risk of consumer. Also, the hypotheses that identified some variables to moderate the effects of two types of corporate association on the perceived risk of the product are laid down. One of the hypotheses of the interaction effect is Hypothesis 3a($H_{3a}$), it is described that consumer's knowledges of the product moderates the negative relationship between CA association and product-relevant performance risk. A field experiment was conducted in order to examine our model. The company tested was not real but imagined to meet the internal validity. Water purifiers were used for our study. Four scenarios have been developed and described as the imaginary company: Type A with both of superior CA and CSR, Type B with superior CSR and inferior CA, Type C with superior CA and inferior CSR, and Type D with both inferior of CA and CSR. The respondents of this study were classified into four groups. One type of four scenarios (Type A, B, C, or D) in its questionnaire was given to the respondent who filled out questions. Data were collected by means of a self-administered questionnaire to the respondents, chosen in convenience. A total of 300 respondents filled out the questionnaire but 207 were used for further analysis. Table 1 indicates that the scales in this study are reliable because the range of coefficients of Cronbach's $\alpha$ are from 0.85 to 0.92. The composite reliability is in the range of 0,85 to 0,92 and average variance extracted is in 0.72-0.98 range that is higher than the base level of 0.6. As shown in Table 2, the values for CFI, NNFI, root-mean-square error approximation (RMSEA), and standardized root-mean-square residual (SRMR) are acceptably close to the standards suggested by Hu and Bentler (1999):.95 for CFI and NNFI,.06 for RMSEA, and.08 for SRMR. We also tested discriminant validity provided by Fornell and Larcker (1981). As shown in Table 2, we found strong evidence for discriminant validity between each possible pair of latent constructs in all samples. Given that these batteries of overall goodness-of-fit indices were accurate and that the model was developed on theoretical bases, and given the high level of consistency across samples, this enables us to proceed the previously defined scales. We used the moderated hierarchical regression analysis to test the influence of the corporate association(CA and CSR associations) on product-relevant perceived risk(performance and financial risks) and to identify the variables moderating the relationship between the corporate association and product-relevant performance risk. In this study, dependent variables are performance and financial risk. CA and CSR associations are described the independent variables. The moderating variables are product category knowledge and product category involvement. The results are, as expected, found that CA association has statistically a significant influence on the perceived risk of the product, but CSR association does not. Product category knowledge and involvement moderate the relationship between the CA association and the perceived risk of the product. However, the effect of CSR association on the perceived risk of the product is not moderated by the consumers' knowledge and involvement. For this result, it is necessary for a corporate to inform its customers CA association more than CSR association so that they could be felt to be the reduction of the perceived risk. The important theoretical contribution of this research is the meanings that two types of corporate association that Brown and Dacin(1997), and Brown(1998) have proposed replicated the difference of the effects on product evaluation. According to Hunter(2001), it was an important affair to accomplish the validity of a particular study and we had to take about ten studies to deduce a strict study. Next, there is the contribution of the this study to find that the effects of corporate association on the perceived risk of the product are varied by the moderator variables. In particular, the moderating effect of knowledge on the relationship between corporate association and product-relevant perceived risk has not been tested in Korea. In the managerial implications of this research, we suggest the necessity to stress the ability that corporate manufactures the product well(CA association) than the accomplishment of corporate's social obligation(CSR association). This study suffers from various limitations that imply future research directions. The moderating effects of product category knowledge and involvement on the relationship between corporate association and perceived risk need to be replicated. Next, future research could explore whether the mediated effects of the perceived risk has the relationship between corporate association and consumer's product purchase. In addition, to ensure the external validity of the study will be needed to use realistic company, not artificial.