• Title/Summary/Keyword: Systematic Error

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Fund Flow and Market Risk (펀드플로우와 시장위험)

  • Chung, Hyo-Youn;Park, Jong-Won
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.169-204
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    • 2010
  • This paper examines the dynamic relationship between fund flow and market risk at the aggregate level and explores whether sudden sharp changes in fund flow (fund run) can cause a systemic risk in the Korean financial markets. We use daily and weekly data and regression and VAR analysis. Main results of the paper are as follows: First, in the stock market, a concurrent and a lagged unexpected fund flows have a positive relationship with market volatility. A positive shock in fund flow predicts an increase in stock market volatility. In the bond market, an unexpected fund flow has a negative relationship with the default risk premium, but a positive relationship with the term premium. And an unexpected fund flow of the money market fund has a negative relationship with the liquidy risk, but the explanatory power is very low. Second, for examining whether changes in fund flow induce a systemic risk, we construct a spillover index based on the forecast error variance decomposition of VAR model. A spillover index represents that how much the shock in fund flow can explain the change of market risk in a market. In general, explanatory powers from spillover indexes are so fluctuant and low. In the stock market, the impact of shocks in fund flow on market risk is relatively high and persistent during the period from the end of 2007 to 2008, which is the subprime-mortgage crisis period. In bond market, since the end of 2008, the impact of shocks in fund flow spreads to default risk continually, while in the money market, such a systematic effect doesn't take place. The persistent patterns of spillover effect appearing around a certain period in the stock market and the bond market suggest that the shock to the unexpected fund flow may increase the market risk and can be a cause of systemic risk in the financial markets. However, summarizing the results of regression and VAR model analysis, and considering the very low explanatory power of spillover index analysis, we can conclude that changes in fund flow have a very limited power in explaining changes in market risk and it is not very likely to induce the systemic risk by a fund run in the Korean financial markets.

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The Optimum of Respiratory Phase Using the Motion Range of the Diaphragm: Focus on Respiratory Gated Radiotherapy of Lung Cancer (횡격막의 움직임을 이용한 최적화된 호흡 위상의 선택: 폐암의 호흡 동기 방사선치료 중심)

  • Kim, Myoungju;Im, Inchul;Lee, Jaeseung;Kang, Suman
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.157-163
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    • 2013
  • This study was to analyze quantitatively movement of planning target volume (PTV) and change of PTV volume through movement of diaphragm according to breathing phase. The purpose of present study was to investigate optimized respiration phase for radiation therapy of lung cancer. Simulated breathing training was performed in order to minimize systematic errors which is caused non-specific or irregular breathing. We performed 4-dimensional computed tomography (4DCTi) in accordance with each respiratory phase in the normalized respiratory gated radiation therapy procedures, then not only defined PTVi in 0 ~ 90%, 30 ~ 70% and 40 ~ 60% in the reconstructed 4DCTi images but analyzed quantitatively movement and changes of volume in PTVi. As a results, average respiratory cycle was $3.4{\pm}0.5$ seconds by simulated breathing training. R2-value which is expressed as concordance between clinically induced expected value and actual measured value, was almost 1. There was a statistically significant. And also movement of PTVi according to each respiration phase 0 ~ 90%, 30 ~ 70% and 40 ~ 60% were $13.4{\pm}6.4mm$, $6.1{\pm}2.9mm$ and $4.0{\pm}2.1mm$ respectively. Change of volume in PTVi of respiration phase 30 ~ 70% was decreased by $32.6{\pm}8.7%$ and 40 ~ 60% was decreased by $41.6{\pm}6.2%$. In conclusion, PTVi movement and volume change was reduced, when we apply a short breathing phase (40 ~ 60%: 30% duty cycle) range. Furthermore, PTVi margin considered respiration was not only within 4mm but able to get uniformity of dose.

The feasibility evaluation of Respiratory Gated radiation therapy simulation according to the Respiratory Training with lung cancer (폐암 환자의 호흡훈련에 의한 호흡동조 방사선치료계획의 유용성 평가)

  • Hong, mi ran;Kim, cheol jong;Park, soo yeon;Choi, jae won;Pyo, hong ryeol
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.149-159
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    • 2016
  • Purpose : To evaluate the usefulness of the breathing exercise,we analyzed the change in the RPM signal and the diaphragm imagebefore 4D respiratory gated radiation therapy planning of lung cancer patients. Materials and Methods : The breathing training was enforced on 11 patients getting the 4D respiratory gated radiation therapy from April, 2016 until August. At the same time, RPM signal and diaphragm image was obtained respiration training total three steps in step 1 signal acquisition of free-breathing state, 2 steps respiratory signal acquisition through the guide of the respiratory signal, 3 steps, won the regular respiration signal to the description and repeat training. And then, acquired the minimum value, maximum value, average value, and a standard deviation of the inspiration and expiration in RPM signal and diaphragm image in each steps. Were normalized by the value of the step 1, to convert the 2,3 steps to the other distribution ratio (%), by evaluating the change in the interior of the respiratory motion of the patient, it was evaluated breathing exercise usefulness of each patient. Results : The mean value and the standard deviation of each step were obtained with the procedure 1 of the RPM signal and the diaphragm amplitude as a 100% reference. In the RPM signal, the amplitudes and standard deviations of four patients (36.4%, eleven) decreased by 18.1%, 27.6% on average in 3 steps, and 2 patients (18.2%, 11 people) had standard deviation, It decreased by an average of 36.5%. Meanwhile, the other four patients (36.4%, eleven) decreased by an average of only amplitude 13.1%. In Step 3, the amplitude of the diaphragm image decreased by 30% on average of 9 patients (81.8%, 11 people), and the average of 2 patients (18.2%, 11 people) increased by 7.3%. However, the amplitudes of RPM signals and diaphragm image in 3steps were reduced by 52.6% and 42.1% on average from all patients, respectively, compared to the 2 steps. Relationship between RPM signal and diaphragm image amplitude difference was consistent with patterns of movement 1, 2 and 3steps, respectively, except for No. 2 No. 10 patients. Conclusion : It is possible to induce an optimized respiratory cycle when respiratory training is done. By conducting respiratory training before treatment, it was possible to expect the effect of predicting the movement of the lung which could control the patient's respiration. Ultimately, it can be said that breathing exercises are useful because it is possible to minimize the systematic error of radiotherapy, expect more accurate treatment. In this study, it is limited to research analyzed based on data on respiratory training before treatment, and it will be necessary to verify with the actual CT plan and the data acquired during treatment in the future.

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Heavy Metals of Landfilled Biomass and Their Environmental Standard, Including CCA-treated Wood for Eco-housing Materials (방부처리 목재를 포함한 토양매립 바이오메스의 중금속 함량과 안전성 문제)

  • Lim, Kie-Pyo;Lee, Jong-Tak;Bum, Jung-Won
    • Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.37-45
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    • 2006
  • Recently, wood-framed houses has been built in the Korea for pension. Wood is good material for human healthy, while the construction lumbers are treated with preservative such as CCA (chromated copper arsenate), which contain some toxic elements for human body. However, if the waste woody biomass treated with various heavy metals, which has been collected from house construction or demolition, was fired in the field, and incinerated or landfilled after mass collection, such components will result in the toxic air pollutants in the burning or land fills, and spreaded into other areas. So the careful selection of wood and chemicals are required in advance for house construction, in particular, for environment-friendly housings. Therefore, this study was carried out to determine the content of toxic heavy metals in woody materials such as domestic hinoki and imported hemlock treated with CCA for housing materials, and the post-treated wood components such as organic fertilizer, sludge, dry-distilled charcoal and carbonized charcoal, to be returned finally into soil. The results are as follows. 1) The chemical analysis of toxic trace elements in various solid biomass required accurate control and management of laboratory environment, and reagents and water used, because of the error of data due to various foreign substances added in various processing and transporting steps. So a systematic analyzers was necessary to monitor the toxic pollutants of construction materials. 2) In particular, the biomass treated with industrial biological or thermal conditions such as sludge or charcoals was not fully dissolvable after third addition of $HNO_3$ and HF. 3) The natural woody materials such as organic fertilizer, sludge. and charcoals without any treatment of preservatives or heavy metal components were nontoxic in landfill because of the standard of organic fertilizers, even after thermal or biological treatments. 4) The CC A-treated wood for making the construction wood durable should not be landfilled, because of its higher contents of toxic metals than the criterion of organic fertilizer for agriculture or of natural environment. So the demolished waste should be treated separately from municipal wastes.

Why Your Manuscripts Were Rejected or Required a Major Revision: An Analysis of Asia Pacific Journal if Information Systems (MIS 논문의 '게재 불가' 및 '수정 후 재심사' 사유: Asia Pacific Journal of Information Systems 심사소견서 분석)

  • Lee, Choong-C.;Yun, Hae-Jung;Hwang, Seong-Hoon
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.179-193
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    • 2009
  • As the common saying attests, a publish-or-perish world, publishing is absolutely critical for academic researchers' successful careers. It is the most objectively-accepted academic performance criteria and the most viable way to attain public and academic recognition. Asia Pacific Journal of Information Systems(APJIS) has been recognized as the most influential domestic journal in Korean MIS field since July, 1991. Therefore, publishing in APJIS means your research is original, valid, and contributive. While most researchers learn how to publish an article in APJIS through a repetitive review process, thereby improving their chance of the' accepted' through their personal trial and error experiences, such valuable lessons and know-how tend to be kept personally and rarely shared. However, useful insights into research and publication skills could be also gained from sharing others' errors, neglect, and misjudgments which are equally critical in improving researchers' knowledge in the field (Murthy and Wiggins, 2002). For this reason, other academic disciplines make systematic efforts to examine the paper review process of major journals and share the findings from these studies with the rest of the research community members (Beyer et al., 1995; Cummings et al, 1985; Daft, 1995; Jauch and Wall, 1989; Murthy and Wiggins, 2002). Recognizing the urgent need to provide such type of information to MIS research community in Korea, we have chosen the most influential academic journal, APJIS with an intention to share the answer to the following research question: "What are the common problems found in the manuscripts either 'rejected' or 'required a major revision' by APJIS reviewers?" This study analyzes the review results of manuscripts submitted to APJIS (from January, 2006 to October, 2008), particularly those that were 'rejected' or required a 'major revision' at the first round. Based on Daft's(1995) study, twelve most-likelihood problems were defined and used to analyze the reviews. The twelve criteria for classification, or "twelve problems", are as follows: No theory, Concepts and operationalization not in alignment, Insufficient definition--theory, Insufficient rationale--design, Macrostructure--organization and flow, Amateur style and tone, Inadequate research design, Not relevant to the field, Overengineering, Conclusions not in alignment, Cutting up the data, and Poor editorial practice. Upon the approval of the editorial board of APJIS, the total 252 reviews, including 11 cases of 2005 and 241 cases from July, 2006 to October, 2008, were received without any information about manuscripts, authors, or reviewers. Eleven cases of 2005 were used in the pilot test because the data of 2005 were not in complete enumeration, and the 241 reviews (113 cases of 'rejection' and 128 ones of 'major revision') of 2006, 2007, and 2008 were examined in this study. Our findings show that insufficient rationale-design(20.25%), no theory(18.45%), and insufficient definition--theory(15.69%) were the three leading reasons of 'rejection' and 'major revision.' Between these two results, the former followed the same order of three major reasons as an overall analysis (insufficient rationale-design, no theory, and insufficient definition-theory), but the latter followed the order of insufficient rationale--design, insufficient definition--theory, and no theory. Using Daft's three major skills-- 'theory skills', 'design skills', and 'communication skills'-- twelve criteria were reclassified into 'theory problems', 'design problems', and 'communication problems' to derive more practical implications of our findings. Our findings show that 'theory problems' occupied 43.48%, 'design problems' were 30.86%, and 'communication problems' were 25.86%. In general, the APJIS reviewers weigh each of these three problem areas almost equally. Comparing to other disciplines like management field shown in Daft's study, the portion of 'design problems' and 'communication problems' are much higher in manuscripts submitted to the APJIS than in those of Administrative Science Quarterly and Academy of Management Journal even though 'theory problems' are the most predominant in both disciplines.

An Analysis and Evaluation of Current Cyber Home Learning Contents - Focused on the Earth Science Area of Science Course for the 10th Grade- (현행 사이버가정학습 콘텐츠의 분석 및 평가 -고등학교 1학년 과학과정의 지구과학 영역을 중심으로-)

  • Na, Jae-Joon
    • Journal of Science Education
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.225-236
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze and evaluate the Cyber Home Learning contents of Earth science area in the basic course of the $10^{th}$ grade. For this purpose, we applied the 'Cyber Home Study Content Quality Control Tool' presented in Elementary Secondary Education e-Learning Quality Management Guidelines (Ver.2.0)' of Korea Education & Research Information Service(2008). The results of Cyber home learning contents analysis are as follow: First, it was presented that the study guide introduced the contents which should be studied for one class, properly. And it was not analyzed that the diagnosis assesment was not completed in the initiative study; Second, it was possible to study choosing the contents fitting the learner's level of learning in the main study, it was comprised of about 10 minutes. Third, it was performed without feedback for incorrect answers in the learning assessment, just the number of wrong questions. And the learning arrangement present the important contents learned in that class, summarizing and arranging again. The results of evaluating the contents in Cyber Home Learning are as follows: First, in evaluation section of instructional design, many text materials which were so difficult for learners to read were explained, being provided. Besides, the systematic structures leaves much to be desired, in view of learners' learning experience, contents, and environment. And in evaluation section of learning contents, the error of contents caused the learning contents not to appear, the amount of learning in each section was found too much. Second, in evaluation section of the strategy for Teaching and Learning, when we mention the strategy of Self Directed Learning, the environment to make learners search for information free and self-study possible was not possessed well. And in evaluation section of interaction, it was found that a simple click caused the learning to go on. Third, in evaluation section of evaluating, it was evaluated that there was wanting in consistency in learning aims, contents, evaluation contents.

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A Suvey on Satisfaction Measurement of Automatic Milking System in Domestic Dairy Farm (자동착유시스템 설치농가의 설치 후 만족도에 관한 실태조사)

  • Ki, Kwang-Seok;Kim, Jong-Hyeong;Jeong, Young-Hun;Kim, Yun-Ho;Park, Sung-Jai;Kim, Sang-Bum;Lee, Wang-Shik;Lee, Hyun-June;Cho, Won-Mo;Baek, Kwang-Soo;Kim, Hyeon-Shup;Kwon, Eung-Gi;Kim, Wan-Young;Jeo, Joon-Mo
    • Journal of Animal Environmental Science
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.39-48
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    • 2011
  • The present survey was conducted to provide basic information on automatic milking system (AMS) in relation to purchase motive, milk yield and quality, customer satisfaction, difficulties of operation and customer suggestions, etc. Purchase motives of AMS were insufficient labor (44%), planning of dairy experience farm (25%), better performance of high yield cows (19%) and others (6%), respectively. Average cow performance after using AMS was 30.9l/d for milk yield, 3.9% for milk fat, 9,100/ml for bacterial counts. Sixty-eight percentage of respondents were very positive in response to AMS use for their successors but 18% were negative. The AMS operators were owner (44%), successor (44%), wife (6%) and company worker (6%), respectively. The most difficulty (31%) in using AMS was operating the system and complicated program manual. The rate of response to system error and breakdown was 25%. The reasons for culling cow after using AMS were mastitis (28%), reproduction failure (19%), incorrect teat placement (12%), metabolic disease (7%) and others (14%), respectively. Fifty-six percentages of the respondents made AMS maintenance contract and 44% did not. Average annual cost of the maintenance contract was 6,580,000 won. Average score for AMS satisfaction measurement (1 to 5 range) was 3.2 with decrease of labor cost 3.7, company A/S 3.6, increase of milk yield 3.2 and decrease of somatic cell count 2.8, respectively. Suggestions for the higher efficiency in using AMS were selecting cows with correct udder shape and teat placement, proper environment, capital and land, and attitude for continuous observation. Systematic consulting was highly required for AMS companies followed by low cost for AMS setup and systematization of A/S.

A Study on Status of Landscape Architecture Industry with National Statistics (국가통계자료를 활용한 조경산업 현황 연구)

  • Choi, Ja-Ho;Yoon, Young-Kwan;Koo, Bon-Hak
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.50 no.5
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    • pp.40-53
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    • 2022
  • This study carried out to provide the methodology and basic status material of using Korean national statistics needed to find the actual state of the landscape architecture industry. The landscape architecture industry was classified into 'Design', 'Construction Management', 'construction', 'Maintenance & Management', 'Materials', 'Research', 'Education', and 'Administration' areas. In each field, business types were systemized and associated in accordance with Korean standard industrial classification and legislations pertinent to construction. Among them, the business types directly defined in the construction related legislations under the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport were focused on, and the establishment, association, integration, distribution, duplication, and omission of national statistics were analyzed. As a result, the business types of statistical analysis were selected. In order for commonality of statistical items and minimized error of interpretation, semantic analysis was conducted. Finally, the number of registered business types, the number of workers, and sales were selected. Based on them, the analysis framework applicable to fundamental analysis and evaluation of the actual state of the industry was proposed. Actual national statical data were applied for analysis and evaluation. In 2019, the number of registered business types related to the landscape architecture industry was 12,160, the number of workers by business type was 106,296, and the sales by business type were 8,308.5 billion KRW. The number of registered business types and the number of workers had been on the rise from 2017, whereas the sales had been on the decrease. It is required to come up with a plan for industrial development. This study was conducted with the national statistics established by multiple public institutions, so that there are limitations in securing consistency and reliability. Therefore, it is necessary to establish systematic and consistent national statistics in accordance with 「Landscaping Promotion Act」. In the future, it will planned to research application and development plans of national statistics according to subjects including park and green.