• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.239-251
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• 2019

Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.

• 한국사회정책
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.77-115
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• 2013

The purpose of this study is to present empirical evidence for discussion of financing social welfare via estimating optimal tax burden in the main member countries of the OECD by using Hausman-Taylor method considering endogeneity of explanatory variables. Also, the author produced an international tax comparison index reflecting theoretical hypotheses on revenue-expenditure nexus within a model to compare real tax burden by countries and to examine feasibility of tax increase in Korea. As a result of the analysis, the higher the level of tax burden was, the higher the level of welfare expenditure was, indicating the connection between high burden and high welfare from the aspect of scale. The results also indicated that the subject countries recently entered into the state of low tax burden. Meanwhile, Korea had maintained low burden until the late 1990s but the tax burden soared up since the financial crisis related to the IMF. However, due to the impact of foreign economy and the tax reduction policy, it reentered into the low-burden state after 2009. On the other hand, the degree of social welfare expenditure's reducing tax burden has been gradually enhanced since the crisis. In this context, the current optimal tax burden ratio of Korea as of 2010 may be 25.8%~26.5% of GDP based on input of welfare expenditure variables, a percent that Korea was investigated to be a 'high tax burden-low ITC' country whose tax increase of 0.7~1.4%p may be feasible and that the success of tax system reform for tax increase might be higher probability when compare to others. However, measures of increasing social security contributions and consumption tax were analyzed to be improper from the aspect of managing finance when compared to increase in other tax items, considering the relatively higher ITC. Tax increase is not necessarily required though there may be room for tax increase; the optimal tax burden ratio can be understood as the level that may be achieved on average when compared to other nations, not as the "proper" level. Thus, discussion of tax increase should be accompanied with comprehensive understanding of models of economic developmental difference from nations and institutional & historical attributes included in specific tax mix.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.105-116
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• 2021

In the city of high population density crowded with buildings, Urban Heat Island (UHI) is intensified, and the city is vulnerable to thermal comfort. The maintenance of vacant land in downtown is treated as a factor that undermines the residential environment, spoils the urban landscape, and decreases the economic vitality of the whole region. Therefore, this study compared the effects on microclimate in the surrounding area according to the development scenarios targeting the vacant land in Songhyeon-dong, Jongno-gu, Seoul. The status quo, green oriented, building oriented and green-building mediation scenarios were established and ENVI-met was used to compare and analyze the impact of changes in wind speed, air temperature and mean radiant temperature (MRT) within 1 km of the target and the target site. The result of inside and 1 km radius the targeted area showed that the seasonal average temperature decreased and the wind speed increased when the green oriented scenario was compared with the current state one. It was expected that the temperature lowered to -0.73 ℃ or increased to 1.5 ℃ in summer, and the wind speed was affected up to 210 meters depending on the scenario. And it was revealed that green area inside the site generally affects inside area, but the layout and size of the buildings affect either internal and external area. This study is expected to help as a decision-making support tool for developing Songhyeon-dong area and to be used to reflect the part related to microclimate on the future environmental effects evaluation system.

• Research in Plant Disease
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.113-121
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• 2022

Rice blast is a major plant disease that occurs worldwide and significantly reduces rice yields. Rice blast disease occurs periodically in Korea, causing significant socio-economic damage due to the unique status of rice as a major staple crop. A disease outbreak prediction system is required for preventing rice blast disease. Epidemiological investigations of disease outbreaks can aid in decision-making for plant disease management. Currently, plant disease prediction and epidemiological investigations are mainly based on quantitatively measurable, structured data such as crop growth and damage, weather, and other environmental factors. On the other hand, text data related to the occurrence of plant diseases are accumulated along with the structured data. However, epidemiological investigations using these unstructured data have not been conducted. The useful information extracted using unstructured data can be used for more effective plant disease management. This study analyzed news articles related to the rice blast disease through text mining to investigate the years and provinces where rice blast disease occurred most in Korea. Moreover, the average temperature, total precipitation, sunshine hours, and supplied rice varieties in the regions were also analyzed. Through these data, it was estimated that the primary causes of the nationwide outbreak in 2020 and the major outbreak in Jeonbuk region in 2021 were meteorological factors. These results obtained through text mining can be combined with deep learning technology to be used as a tool to investigate the epidemiology of rice blast disease in the future.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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• v.50 no.1
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• pp.1-19
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• 2022

The Geumgang Pine (Pinus densiflora) Forest in Sogwang-ri, Uljin has traditionally been a pine tree protection area (prohibited forest) for timber production purposes, and is now designated and managed as a protected area for forest genetic resource conservation by the Korea Forest Service. This study, we analyzed topographical characteristics, existing vegetation, tree age, and plant community structure, and proposed a sustainable management method for the Geumgang Pine (Pinus densiflora) Forest in Sogwang-ri, Uljin for timber havesting purposes. The topographical characteristics of the target area were 36.7% ridges and 38.7% valleys; the ratio of ridges to valleys was similar, and the slopes formed 24.7% of the total area. The types of pine forest communities are divided into six types based on the progress of pine forest renewal, the competition with other species such as deciduous broadleaf trees, and the formation of layered structures. It has been confirmed that the age of the large-diameter pine trees (40~60cm in diameter) is approximately 60~70 years, which is relatively low. As a result of the analysis of the relative importance percentage and layered structure, differences depended on the progress of the pine forest renewal project, and not only the maintenance of the pine forest, but also the creation of a secondary growth forest, the density adjustment of pine trees, and the active management of competitive trees. The average basal area by the community was 12,642.1~25,424.4cm² for the tree layer and 1.8~1,956.5cm² for the low tree layer based on a quadrat of 400m². The difference in the basal area appeared to depend on the size and number of trees forming the tree layer and the degree of pine forest renewal (the degree of time elapsed after thinning pine trees). The average number of species that appeared in each community was 8.7-20.3; there were many species located in valleys, and the type competes with deciduous broadleaf trees due to the lack of management. The diversity of species ranged from 0.6915-1.0942, and was evaluated as low compared to pine communities in central temperate zones. In this paper, we determined the management goals of Geumgang Pine (Pinus densiflora) Forest in Sogwang-ri, Uljin to produce timber with high economic value, and suggested efficient vegetation management for continuous afforestation, the establishment of a timber production system, and improvement of wood production as a management direction.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.28 no.5B
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• pp.595-601
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• 2008

The purpose of this study is to investigate the trends and patterns of various kind of water uses in a household by metering in Korea. Water use components are classified by toilet, washbowl, bathing, laundry, kitchen, miscellaneous. Flow meters are installed in 140 household selected by sampling in all around Korea. The data are gathered by web-based data collection system from the year 2002 to 2006, considering pre-investigated data such as occupation, revenue, family members, housing types, age, floor area, water saving devices, education, miscellaneous. Reliable data are selected by upper fence method for each observed water use component and statistical characteristics are estimated for each residential type to determine liter per capita per day. Estimated domestic per capita day show an indoor water use with the range from 150 lpcd to 169 lpcd for each housing type as the order of high rise apartment, multi-house, and single house. As the order of consuming amount among water use components, it is investigated that toilet (38.5 lpcd) is the first, and the second is laundry water (30.8 lpcd), the third is kitchen (28.4 lpcd), the fourth is bathtub (24.7 lpcd), the next is washbowl (15.4 lpcd). The results are compared with water uses in U.K. and U.S. As life style has been changed into western style, pattern of water use in Korea is tend to be similar with the U.S. water use pattern. Compared with the surveying results by Bradley, on 1985. Thirty liter of total use increased with the advancement of economic level, and a little change of water use pattern can be found. Especially, toilet water take almost half part of total water use and laundry water shows lowest as 11% in surveying at the year of 1985. But, this study shows that 39 liter, 28% of toilet water, has been decreased by the spread of saving devices and campaign. It is supposed that the spread large sized laundry machine make by-hand laundry has been decreased and water use increased. Unit water amount of each end-use in household can be applied to design factor for water and wastewater facilities, and it play a role as information in establishing water demand forecasting and conservation policy.

• Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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• v.13 no.5
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• pp.263-271
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• 2019

The recent phenomenon of job "Miss Match", which is inconsistent with knowledge in the demand of educational training institutes and industries, has spread to an increase in private education costs for reeducation and employment of new hires, resulting in weak individual job competency and poor employment capability, as well as economic and material waste at the national level. To compensate for these problems, the National Competency Standards(NCS), which are available immediately in practice and look for a standard point of national job competency with the aim of fostering human resources sought by industries, were developed, and even the NCS-based qualification system was launched in line with the stream of times. This study is intended to look into the importance and priority of competency units and competency unit elements at the NCS-based qualification L3 level in the skin care field for an overall check of the NCS-based qualification level at a time when educational institutes are organizing and operating the school curriculums according to the NCS and NCS-based qualification level. And it is attempted to provide basic data for the development of curriculum in fostering professional human resources required by industries. To analyze the needs for competency units and competency unit elements at the L3 level, a survey using AHP method was carried out to a group of field experts and a group of education experts. In addition, the SPSS(Statistical Package for Social Science) ver. 21.0 and Expert Choice 2000, an AHP-only solution was used to do statistical processing through the processes of data coding and data cleaning. The findings showed that there was a partial difference of opinion between a group of field experts and a group of education experts. This indicates that the inconsistencies between educational training institutes and industrial sites should be resolved at this time of change with the aim of fostering field customized human resources with professional skills. Consequently, the solution is to combine jobs at industrial sites and standardized educations of educational institutes with human resources required at industrial sites.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.29 no.6
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• pp.639-652
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• 2023

The fundamental background behind the introduction of the fishing vessel system is to allow petty small fishers to engage in pure fishery business activities with fishing vessels during normal times and engage in fishing vessel business only during specific periods (closed fishing season, etc.) thereby granting a qualification as an auxiliary tool for the economic activities of petty small fishers. In addition, fishing boats are allowed to engage in excursion ship activities using fishing vessels registered under the Fishing Vessels Act, the form of fishing vessels should also have a general and universal structure that is practically easy to engage in fishing activities in the field in accordance with the relevant regulations. However, most fishing vessel proprietors are currently focusing only on increasing income, and rather than building fishing vessels in a reasonable form suitable for the original purpose of general fishing vessels, they prefer an abnormal hull form equivalent to expediency, that is biased hull structure biased toward the fishing vessel business. As a result, it is causing serious problems in safety management as well as conflict [damaging relative equity in government support measures (tax-free oil supply, etc.), and depletion of livelihood-type fish stocks] with fishing vessel forces who consider the fishing vessel business only to be a part of the side job among all fishery business activities. Meanwhile, the most fundamental cause of this problem is that the current Fishing Management and Promotion Act, limits the concept of fishing vessels to fishing vessels registered under the Fishing Vessels Act, and applies survey standards accordingly. Accordingly, in this study, through analysis of the distribution status of fishing vessels, structural characteristics, operation status of fishing vessels, and the government's fishing promotion policies, etc., the relevant laws (regulations) have been reorganized to suit the current reality of the concept of fishing vessels to separate the current fishing vessel from fishing vessels and operate it as a fishing-only vessel.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.31 no.1 s.60
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• pp.139-156
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• 1998

Diving related disease including decompression sickness is an important occupational health problem and diving fishermen remain a fairly hazardous occupation in Korea. To prevent diving related disease, we investigate diving patterns, incidence of diving related diseases, and contributing factors of 433 diving fishermen of three coast interviewing and mailing questionnaire in 1996. Mean age of divers was 39.7 years, ranged from 24 to 58 years, 92.8% of these were male, and 58.4% of divers were high school graduates. Mean duration of work as a diver was 12.9 years, ranged from 2 to 40 years. It was found that 70.4% of divers were using hookah system, 22.2% of helmet, and only 2.5% SCUBA. About half of them have learned diving skills from other divers. The peak season of diving was from April to June and mean working days were 20.3 days per month during the peak season. On the average, the divers dived 5-6 times, ranged from 1 to 10 times a day with 51.1 minutes of diving time, ranged from 20 to 120 minutes, at 30 m or 40 m in depth, and 35.5 minute of interval on surface. Most divers ascended slowly making decompression stop, yet the decompression profile used was not based on any scientific knowledge except for their own experiences. It appeared that each diving system had slightly different diving patterns. There were 282(65.0%) divers that suffered from DCS in 1995 and 31.2% of divers were given recompression therapy at a medical facility since they worked as diving fishermen. Skin and musculoskeletal complaints were common symptoms of DCS and 39% of divers experienced a voiding difficulty. In univariate analysis, females have an increased frequency of DCS(93% vs 66% for males). Old age, long duration of work, helmet diving, diving time, diving depth, repetitive diving, and blow up were all contributing factors to DCS. It was found that most diving patterns exceed no decompression limit and did not use the standard decompression table. This suggests that most of divers are at high risk of developing diving related disease with prolonged dives and lengthy repetitive diving in deep depth. Considering the diving patterns and economic aspect of professional diving, the incidence of DCS among diving fishermen in Korea will not decrease in the near future. These findings suggest that periodical health surveillance for divers, and education of health and safety are important for reducing the risk of diving related disease in the population of diving fishermen.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.59-87
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• 2014

In MIS field, the researches on payment services are focused on adoption factors of payment service using behavior theories such as TRA(Theory of Reasoned Action), TAM(Technology Acceptance Model), and TPB (Theory of Planned Behavior). The previous researches presented various adoption factors according to types of payment service, nations, culture and so on even though adoption factors of identical payment service were presented differently by researchers. The payment service industry relatively has strong path dependency to the existing payment methods so that the research results on the identical payment service are different due to payment culture of nation. This paper aims to suggest a successful adoption factor of noble payment service regardless of nation's culture and characteristics of payment and prove it. In previous researches, common adoption factors of payment service are convenience, ease of use, security, convenience, speed etc. But real cases prove the fact that adoption factors that the previous researches present are not always critical to success to penetrate a market. For example, PayByPhone, NFC based parking payment service, successfully has penetrated to early market and grown. In contrast, Google Wallet service failed to be adopted to users despite NFC based payment method which provides convenience, security, ease of use. As shown in upper case, there remains an unexplained aspect. Therefore, the present research question emerged from the question: "What is the more essential and fundamental factor that should takes precedence over factors such as provides convenience, security, ease of use for successful penetration to market". With these cases, this paper analyzes four cases predicted on the following hypothesis and demonstrates it. "To successfully penetrate a market and sustainably grow, new payment service should find non-customer of the existing payment service and provide noble payment method so that they can use payment method". We give plausible explanations for the hypothesis using multiple case studies. Diners club, Danal, PayPal, Square were selected as a typical and successful cases in each category of payment service. The discussion on cases is primarily non-customer analysis that noble payment service targets on to find the most crucial factor in the early market, we does not attempt to consider factors for business growth. We clarified three-tier non-customer of the payment method that new payment service targets on and elaborated how new payment service satisfy them. In case of credit card, this payment service target first tier of non-customer who can't pay for because they don't have any cash temporarily but they have regular income. So credit card provides an opportunity which they can do economic activities by delaying the date of payment. In a result of wireless phone payment's case study, this service targets on second of non-customer who can't use online payment because they concern about security or have to take a complex process and learn how to use online payment method. Therefore, wireless phone payment provides very convenient payment method. Especially, it made group of young pay for a little money without a credit card. Case study result of PayPal, online payment service, shows that it targets on second tier of non-customer who reject to use online payment service because of concern about sensitive information leaks such as passwords and credit card details. Accordingly, PayPal service allows users to pay online without a provision of sensitive information. Final Square case result, Mobile POS -based payment service, also shows that it targets on second tier of non-customer who can't individually transact offline because of cash's shortness. Hence, Square provides dongle which function as POS by putting dongle in earphone terminal. As a result, four cases made non-customer their customer so that they could penetrate early market and had been extended their market share. Consequently, all cases supported the hypothesis and it is highly probable according to 'analytic generation' that case study methodology suggests. We present for judging the quality of research designs the following. Construct validity, internal validity, external validity, reliability are common to all social science methods, these have been summarized in numerous textbooks(Yin, 2014). In case study methodology, these also have served as a framework for assessing a large group of case studies (Gibbert, Ruigrok & Wicki, 2008). Construct validity is to identify correct operational measures for the concepts being studied. To satisfy construct validity, we use multiple sources of evidence such as the academic journals, magazine and articles etc. Internal validity is to seek to establish a causal relationship, whereby certain conditions are believed to lead to other conditions, as distinguished from spurious relationships. To satisfy internal validity, we do explanation building through four cases analysis. External validity is to define the domain to which a study's findings can be generalized. To satisfy this, replication logic in multiple case studies is used. Reliability is to demonstrate that the operations of a study -such as the data collection procedures- can be repeated, with the same results. To satisfy this, we use case study protocol. In Korea, the competition among stakeholders over mobile payment industry is intensifying. Not only main three Telecom Companies but also Smartphone companies and service provider like KakaoTalk announced that they would enter into mobile payment industry. Mobile payment industry is getting competitive. But it doesn't still have momentum effect notwithstanding positive presumptions that will grow very fast. Mobile payment services are categorized into various technology based payment service such as IC mobile card and Application payment service of cloud based, NFC, sound wave, BLE(Bluetooth Low Energy), Biometric recognition technology etc. Especially, mobile payment service is discontinuous innovations that users should change their behavior and noble infrastructure should be installed. These require users to learn how to use it and cause infra-installation cost to shopkeepers. Additionally, payment industry has the strong path dependency. In spite of these obstacles, mobile payment service which should provide dramatically improved value as a products and service of discontinuous innovations is focusing on convenience and security, convenience and so on. We suggest the following to success mobile payment service. First, non-customers of the existing payment service need to be identified. Second, needs of them should be taken. Then, noble payment service provides non-customer who can't pay by the previous payment method to payment method. In conclusion, mobile payment service can create new market and will result in extension of payment market.