• 대기
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• 제31권5호
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• pp.511-523
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• 2021

This study explores the optimal ensemble size to improve the prediction performance of the Korea Meteorological Administration's operational climate prediction system, global seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5). The GloSea5 produces an ensemble of hindcast data using the stochastic kinetic energy backscattering version2 (SKEB2) and timelagged ensemble. An experiment to increase the hindcast ensemble from 3 to 14 members for four initial dates was performed and the improvement and effect of the prediction performance considering Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC), ensemble spread, and Ratio of Predictable Components (RPC) were evaluated. As the ensemble size increased, the RMSE and ACC prediction performance improved and more significantly in the high variability area. In spread and RPC analysis, the prediction accuracy of the system improved as the ensemble size increased. The closer the initial date, the better the predictive performance. Results show that increasing the ensemble to an appropriate number considering the combination of initial times is efficient.

• 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산유체공학회 2006년도 PARALLEL CFD 2006
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• pp.275-278
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• 2006

Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency has introduced a new terascale clusterd SMP system as a main compute engine of Numerical Simulator III for aerospace science and engineering research purposes. The system is using Fujitsu PRIMEPOWER HPC2500; it has computing capability of 9.3Tflop/s peak performance and 3.6TB of user memory, with about 1,800 scalar processors for computation. In this paper, we first present the performance evaluation results for aerospace CFD applications with hybrid programming paradigm used at JAXA. Next we propose a performance prediction formula for hybrid codes based on a simple extension of AMhhal's law, and discuss about the predicted and measured performances for some typical hybrid CFD codes.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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• 제14권10호
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• pp.1-10
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• 2009

현대의 프로세서 아키텍처에서 정확한 분기 예측은 시스템의 성능에 지대한 영향을 끼친다. 최근의 연구들은 예측 정확도뿐만 아니라, 예측 지연시간 또한 성능에 막대한 영향을 끼친다는 것을 보여준다. 하지만, 예측 지연시간은 간과되는 경향이 있다. 본 논문에서는 분기 예측지연시간을 극복하기 위한 분기 선예측 기법을 제안한다. 이 기법은 분기장치를 인출 단계에서 분리함으로써, 분기 예측기가 명령어 인출 장치로부터의 아무런 정보도 없이 스스로 분기 예측을 진행 가능하게 한다. 또한, 제안된 기법을 지원하기 위해, BTB의 구조를 새롭게 개선하였다. 실험 결과는 제안된 기법이 동일한수준의 분기 예측정확도를 유지하면서, 대부분의 예측지연시간을 은폐한다는 것을 보여준다. 더욱이 제안된 기법은 항상 1 싸이클의 예측 지연시간을 가지는 이상적인 분기 예측기를 사용한 경우보다도 더 나은 성능을 보여준다. 본 논문의 실험 결과에 따르면, 기존의 방식과 비교했을 때, 최대 11.92% 평균 5.15%의 IPC 향상을 가져온다.

• 한국정보통신학회논문지
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• 제13권7호
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• pp.1328-1334
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• 2009

본 논문은 효율적인 4세대 이동통신 시스템을 위한 대수가능성율 기반의 인터리버분할 다중접속 시스템의 성능 예측 메카니즘을 제안한다. 기존 시스템에서는 대수가능성율을 수신기에 단순 전달을 통해 반복적으로 가능성값을 개선시켜 성능 향상을 얻는다. 본 연구에서는 대수가능성율의 단순 전달이전에 대수가능성율 값을 분석하여 비트오율을 예측한다. 이러한 예측을 통하여 수신기의 불필요한 반복 연산을 줄일 수 있으며 성능을 예측할 수 있어 효율적 시스템 설계가 가능하다. 다중 사용자 인터리버 분할 다중접속 시스템의 다양한 전송 시나리오를 구성하여 제안한 메카니즘을 분석하였는데 예측 메카니즘의 성능을 확인하였으며 향후 4세대 시스템중의 하나로 고려되고 있는 인터리버 분할 다중접속 시스템 개발에 유용하게 사용할 수 있을 것이다.

• 대기
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• 제27권3호
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• pp.261-276
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• 2017

The main objectives of this study are to introduce Global Seasonal forecasting system version5 (GloSea5) of KMA and to evaluate the performance of ensemble prediction of system. KMA has performed an operational seasonal forecast system which is a joint system between KMA and UK Met office since 2014. GloSea5 is a fully coupled global climate model which consists of atmosphere (UM), ocean (NEMO), land surface (JULES) and sea ice (CICE) components through the coupler OASIS. The model resolution, used in GloSea5, is N216L85 (~60 km in mid-latitudes) in the atmosphere and ORCA0.25L75 ($0.25^{\circ}$ on a tri-polar grid) in the ocean. In this research, we evaluate the performance of this system using by RMSE, Correlation and MSSS for ensemble mean values. The forecast (FCST) and hindcast (HCST) are separately verified, and the operational data of GloSea5 are used from 2014 to 2015. The performance skills are similar to the past study. For example, the RMSE of h500 is increased from 22.30 gpm of 1 week forecast to 53.82 gpm of 7 week forecast but there is a similar error about 50~53 gpm after 3 week forecast. The Nino Index of SST shows a great correlation (higher than 0.9) up to 7 week forecast in Nino 3.4 area. It can be concluded that GloSea5 has a great performance for seasonal prediction.

• 한국마린엔지니어링학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국마린엔지니어링학회 2001년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.122-128
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• 2001

The simulation analyses of a dish solar power system with stirling engine in this study are applied to system performance prediction if four different test sites; Seoul, Pusan and Cheju in Korea, and Naha in Japan. The effects of difference of concentrator type such as monolithic and stretched-membrane construction on system efficiency are also evaluated. The total amount of generated power for a year depends on the site. However the total maximum system efficiency in every site is approximately 16% and there isnt striking difference. It is also found that the maximum collector efficiency of stretched-membrane concentrator is about 3∼15% lower than that of the monolithic type.

• 통합자연과학논문집
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• 제12권4호
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• pp.105-115
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• 2019

In this paper, a prediction system is proposed to control the brightness of smart street lamps by predicting the moving path through the reduction of consumption power and information of pedestrian's past moving direction while meeting the function of existing smart street lamps. The brightness of smart street lamps is adjusted by utilizing the walk tracking vector and soft hand-off characteristics obtained through the motion sensing sensor of smart street lamps. In addition, the motion vector is used to analyze and predict the pedestrian path, and the GPU is used for high-speed computation. Pedestrians were detected using adaptive Gaussian mixing, weighted difference imaging, and motion vectors, and motions of pedestrians were analyzed using the extracted motion vectors. The preprocessing process using linear interpolation is performed to improve the performance of the proposed prediction system. Fuzzy prediction system and neural network prediction system are designed in parallel to improve efficiency and rough set is used for error correction.

• 음성과학
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• 제9권3호
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• pp.25-34
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• 2002

One of the most important factor in the performance of Korean text-to-speech system is the prediction of accentual and intonational phrase boundary. The previous method of prediction shows only the 75-85% which is not proper in the practical and commercial system. Therefore, more accurate prediction must be needed in the practical system. In this study, we propose the simple and more accurate method of the prediction of AP, IP.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제35권1호
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• pp.124-131
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• 2012

This paper presents a spreadsheet-based reliability prediction simulation framework for the conceptual product design stage to acquire system reliability information in timely manner. During early stage, reliability performance deals with both known and unknown failure rates and component-level and subsystem-level failure estimate to predict system reliability. A technique for performing life testing simulation using Excel spreadsheet has been developed under the such circumstances. This paper also discuss the results obtainable from this method such as reliability estimate, mean and variance of failures and confidence intervals. The resultant of this reliability prediction system is mainly benefitting small and medium-sized enterprise's field engineers.

• 한국지능시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국퍼지및지능시스템학회 2001년도 춘계학술대회 학술발표 논문집
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• pp.191-194
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• 2001

The ozone forecasting systems have many problems because the mechanism of the ozone concentration is highly complex, nonlinear, and nonstationary. Also, the results of prediction are not a good performance so far, especially in the high-level ozone concentration. This paper describes the modeling method of the ozone prediction system using neuro-fuzzy approaches and fuzzy clustering. The dynamic polynomial neural network (DPNN) based upon a typical algorithm of GMDH (group method of data handling) is a useful method for data analysis, identification of nonlinear complex system, and prediction of a dynamical system.