• 제목/요약/키워드: Survival Probability

검색결과 242건 처리시간 0.025초

P.S.C 철도교량의 잔존수명 예측 (Lifetime Prediction of a P.S.C Rail Road Bridge)

  • 양승이
    • 한국철도학회논문집
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    • 제8권5호
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    • pp.439-443
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    • 2005
  • The biggest challenge bridge agencies face is the maintenance of bridges, keeping them safe and serviceable, with limited funds. To maintain the bridges effectively, there is and urgent need to predict their remaining life from a system reliability viewpoint. In this paper, a model using lifetime functions to evaluate the overall system probability of survival of a rail road bridge is proposed. In this model, the rail load bridge is modeled as a system. Using the model, the lifetime of the rail road bridge is predicted.

Verification of the Correlation between Progression-free Survival and Overall Survival Considering Magnitudes of Survival Post-progression in the Treatment of Four Types of Cancer

  • Liu, Li-Ya;Yu, Hao;Bai, Jian-Ling;Zeng, Ping;Miao, Dan-Dan;Chen, Feng
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제16권3호
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    • pp.1001-1006
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    • 2015
  • Background: With development and application of new and effective anti-cancer drugs, the median survival post-progression (SPP) is often prolonged, and the role of the median SPP on surrogacy performance should be considered. To evaluate the impact of the median SPP on the correlation between progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS), we performed simulations for treatment of four types of cancer, advanced gastric cancer (AGC), metastatic colorectal cancer (MCC), glioblastoma (GBM), and advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (ANSCLC). Materials and Methods: The effects of the median SPP on the statistical properties of OS and the correlation between PFS and OS were assessed. Further, comparisons were made between the surrogacy performance based on real data from meta-analyses and simulation results with similar scenarios. Results: The probability of a significant gain in OS and HR for OS was decreased by an increase of the SPP/OS ratio or by a decrease of observed treatment benefit for PFS. Similarly, for each of the four types of cancer, the correlation between PFS and OS was reduced as the median SPP increased from 2 to 12 months. Except for ANSCLC, for which the median SPP was equal to the true value, the simulated correlation between PFS and OS was consistent with the values derived from meta-analyses for the other three kinds of cancer. Further, for these three types of cancer, when the median SPP was controlled at a designated level (i.e., < 4 months for AGC, < 12 months for MCC, and <6 months for GBM), the correlation between PFS and OS was strong; and the power of OS reached 34.9% at the minimum. Conclusions: PFS is an acceptable surrogate endpoint for OS under the condition of controlling SPPs for AGC, MCC, and GBM at their limit levels; a similar conclusion cannot be made for ANSCLC.

Benefit of Post-mastectomy Radiotherapy of the Supra-/infraclavicular Lymphatic Drainage Area in Breast Cancer Patients

  • He, Zhen-Yu;Wu, San-Gang;Zhou, Juan;Sun, Jia-Yuan;Li, Feng-Yan;Lin, Qin;Guo, Ling;Lin, Huan-Xin
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제15권14호
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    • pp.5557-5563
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    • 2014
  • Background: This study investigated the survival benefit of radiotherapy (RT) of the supra- and infraclavicular lymphatic drainage area in Chinese women with T1-2N1M0 breast cancer receiving mastectomy. Methods: A total of 593 cases were retrospectively reviewed from 1998 to 2007. The relationship between supra- or infraclavicular fossa relapse (SCFR) and post-operative RT at the supra-/infraclavicular lymphatic drainage area was evaluated. Results: The majority of patients (532/593; 89. 8%) received no RT while 61 patients received RT. The median follow-up was 85 months. Among patients without RT, 54 (10. 2%) developed recurrence in the chest wall or ipsilateral SCFR. However, none of the 61 patients who underwent RT demonstrated SCFR. One patient who received RT (1. 6%) experienced recurrence in the chest wall. Univariate analysis revealed that age and molecular subtype (both P < 0. 05) were two prognostic factors related to supraclavicular and infraclavicular fossa relapse-free survival (SFRFS). Multivariate analysis revealed that only Her-2 positive status (P = 0. 011) was an independent predictor of SFRFS. RT had no influence on distant metastasis (P = 0. 328) or overall survival (P = 0. 541). SCFR significantly affected probability of distant metastasis (P < 0. 001) and overall survival (P < 0. 001). Conclusion: Although RT was not significantly associated with SFRFS, postoperative RT was significantly associated with a lower locoregional (i. e., supraclavicular/infraclavicular and chest wall) recurrence rate. SCFR significantly influenced distant metastasis-free survival, which significantly influenced the overall survival of T1-2N1M0 breast cancer patients after mastectomy. Thus, prophylactic RT is recommended in T1-2N1M0 breast cancer patients, especially those who have Her-2 positive lesions.

Genetic alterations in Wnt family of genes and their putative association with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

  • Aditya, Jain;Smiline Girija, A.S.;Paramasivam, A.;Priyadharsini, J. Vijayashree
    • Genomics & Informatics
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    • 제19권1호
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    • pp.5.1-5.11
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    • 2021
  • Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is the most frequent type of head and neck cancer that usually arises from the mucosal surfaces of several organs including nasal cavity, paranasal sinuses, oral cavity, tongue, pharynx, and larynx. The Wnt signaling pathway is a crucial mechanism for cellular maintenance and development. It regulates cell cycle progression, apoptosis, proliferation, migration, and differentiation. Dysregulation of this pathway correlates with oncogenesis in various tissues including breast, colon, pancreatic as well as head and neck cancers. The present study aims to assess the gene alterations in the Wnt family of genes so as to derive an association with HNSCC. Computational approaches have been utilized for the identification of gene alterations in the Wnt family of genes. Several databases such as cBioportal, STRING, and UALCAN were used for the purpose. The frequency of alteration was high in case of Wnt family member 11 (5%). Gene amplification, deep deletions, missense and truncating mutations were observed in HNSCC patients. There was a marked difference in the gene expression profile of WNT11 between grades as well as normal samples. The survival probability measured using the Kaplan-Meier curve also presented with a significant difference among male and female subjects experiencing a low/medium level expression. The female patients showed less survival probability when compared to the male subjects. This provides the prognostic significance of the WNT11 gene in HNSCC. Taken together, the present study provides clues on the possible association of WNT11 gene alterations with HNSCC, which has to be further validated using experimental approaches.

고장력볼트의 인장피로강도에 관한 실험적 연구 (Experimental Study on Tensile Fatigue Strength of the High Strength Bolts)

  • 한종욱;박영석
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제28권2A호
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    • pp.165-170
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    • 2008
  • 각국의 강구조물 시공현장에서 사용되고 있는 고장력볼트의 인장강도는 일반적으로 1,000 MPa급이 주종을 이루고 있으나, 고강도강과 극후판의 개발과 교량 지간의 장대화로 인하여 강도가 큰 새로운 볼트 개발이 요구되고 있다. 한편, 반복적인 하중이 작용하는 곳에서 인장연결부에 사용되는 고장력볼트에 인장피로파괴 사례가 발생되고 있으나 아직까지 우리나라에서는 이에 대한 이론 및 실험적인 연구가 없는 실정이다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 현재 일반적으로 사용하고 있는 F8T, F10T볼트와 새로이 개발된 F13T, F13T-N볼트에 대해서 인장피로실험을 수행하였다. 고장력볼트에 대한 피로강도평가는 반복횟수 200만회에 95% 하한신뢰도분석을 하여 수행하였고, 이를 기초로 3가지의 피로강도 기준안을 제시하였다. 또한, KS나사형상의 볼트와 새로이 제안된 나사선 형상의 볼트에 대한 피로강도에 대해서 비교 검토하였다.

Standardized Breast Cancer Mortality Rate Compared to the General Female Population of Iran

  • Haghighat, S.;Akbari, M.E.;Ghaffari, S.;Yavari, P.
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제13권11호
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    • pp.5525-5528
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    • 2012
  • Introduction: Breast cancer is the most common cancer in women. Improvements of early diagnosis modalities have led to longer survival rates. This study aimed to determine the 5, 10 and 15 year mortality rates of breast cancer patients compared to the normal female population. Materials and Methods: The follow up data of a cohort of 615 breast cancer patients referred to Iranian Breast Cancer Research Center (BCRC) from 1986 to 1996 was considered as reference breast cancer dataset. The dataset was divided into 5 year age groups and the 5, 10 and 15 year probability of death for each group was estimated. The annual mortality rate of Iranian women was obtained from the Death Registry system. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) of breast cancer patients were calculated using the ratio of the mortality rate in breast cancer patients over the general female population. Results: The mean age of breast cancer patients at diagnosis time was 45.9 (${\pm}10.5$) years ranging from 24-74. A total of 73, 32 and 2 deaths were recorded at 5, 10 and 15 years, respectively, after diagnosis. The SMRs for breast cancer patients at 5, 10 and 15 year intervals after diagnosis were 6.74 (95% CI, 5.5-8.2), 6.55 (95%CI, 5-8.1) and 1.26 (95%CI, 0.65-2.9), respectively. Conclusion: Results showed that the observed mortality rate of breast cancer patients after 15 years from diagnosis was very similar to expected rates in general female population. This finding would be useful for clinicians and health policy makers to adopt a beneficial strategy to improve breast cancer survival. Further follow-up time with larger sample size and a pooled analysis of survival rates of different centres may shed more light on mortality patterns of breast cancer.

신경모세포종 -15년간 한 병원에서의 임상적 경험- (Neuroblastoma - Experience in One Center -)

  • 김대연;김성철;김인구
    • Advances in pediatric surgery
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    • 제11권2호
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    • pp.99-106
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    • 2005
  • Neuroblastoma treatment remains challenging, but treatment has become more effective due to the establishment of clinical and biological variables that determine prognostic risks. Initially, stage and age were the prime determinants of survival used in clinical practice. Risk-based therapy currently is the hallmark of neuroblastoma treatment. This study reviews one center's experience with the management of neuroblastoma. Sixty-three patients with neuroblastoma were treated from 1989 to 2003. All patients were graded according to the International Neuroblastoma Staging System (INSS) at diagnosis. There were 37 boys and 26 girls. The median age was 2.14 years (range, 33 days-10.2years). The primary site was the adrenal gland in 47, dumbbell shape extending into spinal canal in 6, retroperitoneum in 5, mediastinum in 3, and other sites in 2. The probability of 5-year overall survival (OS) and event free survival (EFS) were 46.7 % and 44.2 % by Kaplan-Meier method. According to INSS, there were stage 1 in 2 cases, stage 2 in 5, stage 3 in 12, stage 4 in 42, and stage 4s in 2. There were statistically significant differences in the survival rates between patients with stage1, 2 and stage 3, 4(P<0.05). For the stage 3 and 4, the extents of surgical resection, determined from the operative records and pathologies, were complete resection in 17 cases, minimal residual in 15, and partial resection 11, and the 5-year OS rate was 57.8, 51.4, and 13.6 %, respectively. There is a trend toward higher OS with more complete resection (P<0.05). We conclude that age and stage at diagnosis are prognostic factors, and complete excision of the primary tumor can provide better prognosis for patients with stage 3 and 4 neuroblastoma.

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신뢰성 개념을 이용한 포장의 평균수명 및 신뢰도 예측 (Estimation of Mean Life and Reliability of Highway Pavement Based on Reliability Theory)

  • 도명식
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제30권5D호
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    • pp.497-504
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    • 2010
  • 본 연구에서는 최근 10년간의 수원과 의정부지역의 국도 포장구간의 수명 데이터를 기반으로 신뢰성 개념을 도입하여 포장 수명의 고장확률, 신뢰도, 평균 수명 등의 정보를 산정하는 방안을 제시하였다. 모수적 추론 방법인 최우추정법과 확률지를 이용하여 최적 수명분포형태가 대수정규분포임을 확인하였으며, 본 연구에서 제안한 대수정규수명분포에 의해 추정된 누적 고장확률이 실제 관측값과 차이가 거의 없음도 확인하였다. 나아가 추정된 모수를 기반으로 신설 포장과 덧씌우기 포장의 하중별 평균 수명을 산정한 결과, 각각 6.5년~7.9년과 7.3년~9.1년으로 추정되었으며 상대적으로 덧씌우기 구간의 평균수명이 더 길게 추정되었다. 본 연구에서 제안한 신뢰성 개념을 이용한 분석 방법은 포장관리 및 유지보수 데이터가 축적되어감에 따라 비교적 용이하게 계속 보완이 가능하며 보다 정확한 포장수명에 대한 신뢰도 값에 접근해 갈 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

Impact of Additional Preoperative Computed Tomography Imaging on Staging, Surgery, and Postsurgical Survival in Patients With Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

  • So Yeong Jeong;Sae Rom Chung;Jung Hwan Baek;Young Jun Choi;Sehee Kim;Tae-Yon Sung;Dong Eun Song;Tae Yong Kim;Jeong Hyun Lee
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • 제24권12호
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    • pp.1284-1292
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    • 2023
  • Objective: We investigated the impacts of computed tomography (CT) added to ultrasound (US) for preoperative evaluation of patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) on staging, surgical extent, and postsurgical survival. Materials and Methods: Consecutive patients who underwent surgery for PTC between January 2015 and December 2015 were retrospectively identified. Of them, 584 had undergone preoperative additional thyroid CT imaging (CT + US group), and 859 had not (US group). Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) and propensity score matching (PSM) were used to adjust for 14 variables and balance the two groups. Changes in nodal staging and surgical extent caused by CT were recorded. The recurrence-free survival and distant metastasis-free survival after surgery were compared between the two groups. Results: In the CT + US group, discordant nodal staging results between CT and US were observed in 94 of 584 patients (16.1%). Of them, CT accurately diagnosed nodal staging in 54 patients (57.4%), while the US provided incorrect nodal staging. Ten patients (1.7%) had a change in the extent of surgery based on CT findings. Postsurgical recurrence developed in 3.6% (31 of 859) of the CT + US group and 2.9% (17 of 584) of the US group during the median follow-up of 59 months. After adjustment using IPTW (580 vs. 861 patients), the CT + US group showed significantly higher recurrence-free survival rates than the US group (hazard ratio [HR], 0.52 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.29-0.96]; P = 0.037). PSM analysis (535 patients in each group) showed similar HR without statistical significance (HR, 0.60 [95% CI, 0.31-1.17]; P = 0.134). For distant metastasis-free survival, HRs after IPTW and PSM were 0.75 (95% CI, 0.17-3.36; P = 0.71) and 0.87 (95% CI, 0.20-3.80; P = 0.851), respectively. Conclusion: The addition of CT imaging for preoperative evaluation changed nodal staging and surgical extent and might improve recurrence-free survival in patients with PTC.

The impact of hair coat color on longevity of Holstein cows in the tropics

  • Lee, C.N.;Baek, K.S.;Parkhurst, A.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • 제58권12호
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    • pp.41.1-41.7
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    • 2016
  • Background: Over two decades of observations in the field in South East Asia and Hawai'i suggest that majority of the commercial dairy herds are of black hair coat. Hence a simple study to determine the accuracy of the observation was conducted with two large dairy herds in Hawaii in the mid-1990s. Methods: A retrospective study on longevity of Holstein cattle in the tropics was conducted using DairyComp-305 lactation information coupled with phenotypic evaluation of hair coat color in two large dairy farms. Cows were classified into 3 groups: a) black (B, >90%); b) black/white (BW, 50:50) and c) white (W, >90%). Cows with other hair coat distribution were excluded from the study. In farm A, 211 out of 970 cows were identified having 4 or more lactations. In farm B, 690 out of 1,350 cows were identified with 2 or more lactations for the study. Results: The regression analyses and the Wilcoxon-Log-rank test for survival probability showed that Holstein cattle with 90% black hair coat had greater longevity compared to Holstein cattle with 90% white hair coat. Conclusions: This study suggests that longevity of Holstein cattle in tropical regions was influenced by hair coat color and characteristics.