• Title/Summary/Keyword: Support Decision Making

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A Study on Decision Making for Applying Insurance in Car Accident -Using the Conditional Probability on Car Accident- (자동차사고 발생시 보험처리 의사결정에 관한 연구 -사고에 대한 조건부확율의 이용-)

  • 이공섭
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.22 no.51
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    • pp.199-210
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    • 1999
  • The number of car accident is Recently on the increase in Korea because of the explosive increase of cars, the poor road condition, the lack of safety facility, and others. The insurant with a accident has to decide whether receiving a insurance or not. In this paper, we represent a reasonable decision support material by calculating the approximate insurance fee based on the discount rate and premium additive rate, which is changed by the accident type and the accident expenditure. Practically, there is difference in the standard insurance rate and premium additive rate according to the accident type and the accident expenditure in Korea. The premium additive rate is assessed considering the number of accident, the pattern of accident, and the reason of accident for 3 years. In this paper, we represent a decision making method considering not only the first-time car accident but also the future car accident. For considering the repeated accident, we analyzed the real data accumulated until the year of 1996 from S Insurance Company, and estimated the probability density function between the first and the second-time accident, and executed the goodness of fit test using ARENA and STATISTICA software. Using this conditional PDF, we can calculate the insurance fee next 3 years and compare the insurance fee with the equivalent present value of cash flows. The program performing this analysis is represented, and written in VISUAL BASIC Language. We tried to suggest an accurate guideline for the insurant to decide the insurance coverage rationally, and tried to correct a wrong idea of dependence on the car insurance only by the amount of the accident expenditure. And we expect this study can generally be applied to many different accident types under the uncertain circumstances in our daily life.

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A Study on the Construction Method selecting scheme using Fuzzy Relative Preference Ratio method (퍼지 R.P.R(Relative Preference Ratio)기법을 이용한 건설프로젝트의 공법선정에 관한 연구)

  • Lee Dong-Un;Kim Kyung-Whal
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.5 no.5 s.21
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    • pp.143-150
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    • 2004
  • Nowaday, The tendency of complexity and extension of construction fields increase the need for efficient works managements like a construction management. Consequently, by the introduction of Decision-Making Theories, researches for improving construction field's efficiencies are actively performed. Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process method is invented, so that describes a decision maker's ambiguous linguistic judgment with fuzzy numbers. but most of researches on Fuzzy-AHP use symmetric triangular fuzzy function for estimating each evaluation item with the consequence that exact judgments are impossible. those limits are caused by the point that employed fuzzy ranking methods can not support dissymmetric fuzzy numbers. In this research, we aims to overcome this problem with R.P.R(Relative Preference Ratio) method and suggest improved Fuzzy-AHP method which can use dissymmetric fuzzy triangular numbers.

Evaluation of Risk Factors to Detect Anomaly in Water Supply Networks Based on the PROMETHEE and ANP (상수도관망의 이상징후 판정을 위한 위험요소 평가 - PROMETHEE와 ANP 기법 중심으로)

  • Hong, Sung-Jun;Lee, Yong-Dae;Kim, Sheung-Kown;Kim, Joong-Hoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.1 s.162
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    • pp.35-46
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    • 2006
  • In this study, we proposed a layout of the integrated decision support system in order to prevent the contamination and to manage risk in water supply networks for safe and smooth water supply. We evaluated the priority of risk factors to detect anomaly in water supply networks using PROMETHEE and ANP techniques, which are applied to various Multi-Criteria Decision Making area in Europe and America. To develop the model, we selected pH, residual chlorine concentration, discharge, hydraulic pressure, electrical conductivity, turbidity, block leakage and water temperature as the key data item. We also chose pipe corrosion, pipe burst and water pollution in pipe as the criteria and then we present the results of PROMETHEE and ANP analysis. The evaluation results of the priority of risk factors in water supply networks will provide basic data to establish a contingency plan for accidents so that we can establish the specific emergency response procedures.

Technical Trends of AI Military Staff to Support Decision-Making of Commanders (지휘관들의 의사결정지원을 위한 AI 군참모 기술동향)

  • Lee, C.E.;Son, J.H.;Park, H.S.;Lee, S.Y.;Park, S.J.;Lee, Y.T.
    • Electronics and Telecommunications Trends
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.89-98
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    • 2021
  • The Ministry of National Defense aims to create an environment in which transparent and reasonable defense policies can be implemented in real time by establishing the vision of smart defense innovation based on the Fourth Industrial Revolution and promoting innovation in technology-based defense operation systems. Artificial intelligence (AI) based defense technology is at the level of basic research worldwide, includes no domestic tasks, and involves classified military operation data and command control/decision information. Further, it is needed to secure independent technologies specialized for our military. In the army, military power continues to decline due to aging and declining population. In addition, it is expected that there will be more than 500,000 units should be managed simultaneously, to recognize the battle situation in real time on the future battlefields. Such a complex battlefield, command decisions will be limited by the experience and expertise of individual commanders. Accordingly, the study of AI core technologies supporting real-time combat command is actively pursued at home and abroad. It is necessary to strengthen future defense capabilities by identifying potential threats that commanders are likely to miss, improving the viability of the combat system, ensuring smart commanders always win conflicts and providing reasonable AI digital staff based on data science. This paper describes the recent research trends in AI military staff technology supporting commander decision-making, broken down into five key areas.

A Study on Railway Transportation Business Cost Estimation & Decision Supporting Methods using Simulation Data (시뮬레이션을 활용한 철도교통사업 비용 추산 및 의사결정 지원 방법 연구)

  • Chang, Suk;Nam, Do Woo;Sim, Jeong Hwan;Kim, Dong Hee
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.85-94
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    • 2020
  • In determining the feasibility of planning and launching railway transportation projects, various decision-making processes are essentially required. LCC(Life Cycle Cost) value including total construction cost and operation cost is estimated in approximation Model with rough guideline. In this study, modeling and simulation-based analysis method is proposed to support the decision making process of railroad transportation and derivation of LCC. Firstly, cost analysis model was constructed by collecting various existing rail transportation business data to enable analyze based on numerical data, and the result were analyzed by DOE(Design Of Experiments) and RSM (Response Surface Method) simulation. Professional commercial software tools were used for effective model construction and simulation. In order to verify the research results, the actual railroad transportation projects were selected, and the results of the analysis were compared.

Decision Making of Seismic Performance Management for the Aged Road Facilities Based on Road-Network and Fragility Curve (취약도곡선을 이용한 도로망기반 노후도로시설물 내진성능관리 의사결정)

  • Kim, Dong-Joo;Choi, Ji-Hae
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.94-101
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    • 2021
  • According to the Facility Management System (FMS) operated by the Korea Authority of Land & Infrastructure Safety, it is expected that the number of aging facilities that have been in use for more than 30 years will increase rapidly to 13.9% in 2019 and 34.5% in 2929, and end up with a social problem. In addition, with the revision of "Common Application of Seismic Design Criteria" by the Ministry of Public Administration and Security in 2017, it is mandatory to re-evaluate all existing road facilities and if necessary seismic reinforcement should be done to minimize the magnitude of earthquake damage and perform normal road functions. The seismic performance management-decision support technology currently used in seismic performance management practice in Korea only determines the earthquake-resistance reinforcement priority based on the qualitative index value for the seismic performance of individual facilities. However with this practice, normal traffic functions cannot be guaranteed. A new seismic performance management decision support technology that can provide various judgment data required for decision making is needed to overcome these shortcomings and better perform seismic performance management from a road network perspective.

An Elective Multi-Project Management for the Small and Medium-sized Construction Companies - Focused on the Planning and Scheduling - (중소건설업체의 다중현장관리를 위한 공사관리업무의 효율화 방안 - 공정관리업무를 중심으로 -)

  • Choi Kwang-Hee;Han Ju-Yeon;Kim Kyung-Rai;Shin Dong-Woo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • autumn
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    • pp.504-510
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    • 2002
  • As the Scale of construction work is enlarged, complicated and diversified, construction information from the large number of construction sites is happened at site and reported to the head office. To simultaneously control the individual or large number of sites in large number of construction information, the necessity of making extract the important point of the information and the board of director's making a suitable decision to support the fields is increased. Also, as driving the construction industry to be informative, efficiently aggregating the information created in fields, efficiently making decision and controlling the construction work is increased the importance of the company's competitiveness factor. To simultaneously control multi-construction sites in the small and medium size construction firms define the fundamental and core information factor which needed in the head office and suggest the appling method.

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Spatial Analysis on Mismatch Between Particulate Matter Regulation Services Supply and Demand in Urban Area - A Case Study of Suwon - (도시녹지 미세먼지 조절 서비스 수요와 공급의 공간적 차이 분석 - 수원시를 대상으로 -)

  • Kang, Da-In;Kwon, Hyuk-Soo;Choi, Tae-Young;Park, Chan;Kim, Sung-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.57-69
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    • 2021
  • Urban green spaces supply ecosystem services (ESs), which are consumed by city residents and generate demand, to improve air quality. It is important to determine supply and demand for ESs and reduce the gap for efficient management. This study proposed a method to use the concept of supply and demand for ESs in the decision-making process for urban planning or management. PM10 concentrations were converted to weight for demand assessment on PM10 reduction, and PM10 absorption capacity of all green spaces including the forests, and that of urban green spaces excluding forests, was calculated for each supply assessment. The differences in the calculated supply and demand were analyzed to derive the mismatched regions in Suwon. As a result, regions with big forested areas showed sufficient supply, indicating that the degree of mismatch among administrative neighborhoods (dong) varied greatly depending on whether they had a forest. An analysis of only urban green spaces showed that all neighborhoods lacked supply. Forests with high PM10 absorption capacity had a great effect, but urban green spaces can be considered a key element in reducing PM10 in daily life. Considering the mismatch of supply and demand, spatial distribution, and population distribution, it is possible to prioritize the supply of urban green spaces to reduce PM10 and, furthermore, support decision making for priority zones subject to forest conservation and designation and cancellation of green spaces, which gives significance to this study.

An Analysis of Decision Making Factor by Delphi and DEMATEL Model for Decision Support Information System development -Wartime Operational Control Transition approach- (의사결정 지원 정보시스템 개발을 위한 Delphi-DEMATEL모델에 의한 의사결정 요인분석 -전작권 전환 사례를 중심으로-)

  • Park, Sangjung;Koh, Chan
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.10 no.11
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    • pp.47-58
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    • 2012
  • This study selects political and military decision factors of Participatory Government's Wartime Operational Control(OPCON) Transition and analyzes, both quantitatively and qualitatively, the effects and relations between those factors. Previous research utilizing the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) selected their decision factors based on academic data and field experience, requiring more objective analysis of the factors. For this study, we conducted a survey among security subject matter experts(SME) both online and offline. The results show that OPCON transition's decision factors were to 'recover military sovereignty', 'set the conditions for peaceful reunification' and 'improve ROK image through enhancing national power' which differs little from the previous AHP method studies. It also showed that 'recover military sovereignty' and 'set the conditions for peaceful reunification' had no relationship to each other and that the key factor that decided the OPCON Transition was actually 'recover military sovereignty' which represents the interest of the liberal party in ROK. This study finds its meaning by analyzing the decision factors of Participartory Government's OPCON Transition thorugh Delphi and DEMATEL method.

Relationship between Social Work Self-efficacy and Career Decision Level and Career Preparation Behavior of University Students Majoring in Social Welfare (사회복지학 전공 대학생의 사회복지 자기효능감과 진로결정수준 및 진로준비행동과의 관계)

  • Jeong, Jin-Hee;Won, Mi-Soon;Lee, Soo-Jin
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.13 no.7
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    • pp.228-237
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    • 2013
  • This study was conducted to contribute to career counseling and career guidance for universities students majoring in social welfare by examining how the career decision level and the career preparation behavior of the students are and the relationship between social work self-efficacy and the career decision level and the career preparation behavior of the respondents. For this study, the social work self-efficacy, the levels of career decision making and career preparation-related behavior of 502 students of social welfare in five universities were measured. The frequency analysis, correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis were used for collected data analysis. The research findings are as follows. Firstly, the levels of career decision making and career preparation-related behavior were slightly lower than mid-point on 5 point scale respectively. Secondly, social work self-efficacy was not correlated to their career decision levels while social work self-efficacy positively affected to the career-related behavioral levels. In particular, the client support self-efficacy of the three sub-factors in social work efficacy had a negative influence on the levels of career preparation behavior. Consequently, social work self-efficacy of the participants intensively was correlated with their career preparation-related behavioral levels.