• Title/Summary/Keyword: Support Decision Making

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Bayesian Model for Cost Estimation of Construction Projects

  • Kim, Sang-Yon
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.91-99
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    • 2011
  • Bayesian network is a form of probabilistic graphical model. It incorporates human reasoning to deal with sparse data availability and to determine the probabilities of uncertain cases. In this research, bayesian network is adopted to model the problem of construction project cost. General information, time, cost, and material, the four main factors dominating the characteristic of construction costs, are incorporated into the model. This research presents verify a model that were conducted to illustrate the functionality and application of a decision support system for predicting the costs. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is applied to estimate parameter distributions. Furthermore, it is shown that not all the parameters are normally distributed. In addition, cost estimates based on the Gibbs output is performed. It can enhance the decision the decision-making process.

Development of Optimal Real Estate Decision Support System by Geographic Information on Real Estate Appraisal - Using Internet and GIS - (부동산 감정평가에 있어 공간정보를 활용한 최적의 부동산 의사결정지원 시스템 개발 - 인터넷과 GIS를 활용하여 -)

  • Kim Han-Su;Na Sang-Youp
    • Journal of the Korean housing association
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.45-54
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    • 2004
  • This study systematized synthetically to use internet GIS and real estate appraisal method in computing system for the real estate decision. First, indicated the method of using GIS and databases to appraise the real estate by using the cost approach. Second, used the artificial neural network to predict the change of land prices and the artificial neural network convinced us that it indicates easily the result of land prices without complicated processes. Third, examined land prices using the artificial neural network but there is limits for the land price prediction because of difficult data gathering. also, this study may heighten information levels of the real estate field according to 21th century information level if use actively a internet, information users who should pay much moneys in existent real estate decisions may can approach easily.

Development of Decision Support System for Optimal Structure Control of Local Industry under Multiobjective (다목적하에서 지역 산업의 최적 구조조정을 위한 의사결정지원시스템의 개발)

  • 남현우;이상완
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 1998.10a
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    • pp.137-140
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    • 1998
  • In this study, we have developed algorithms to find more effective solutions for compensatory decision-making problems in the case of the decision maker with fuzziness which can occur in a real world fuzzy environment. We have applied the algorithm to the problems related to the structural reform of the capital and the number of workers in the local industry. We have selected Taegu city for this study. In this study, we have determined the capital and the number of workers, satisfying maximum productivity and minimum air and water pollution under the constraints such as capital-labor ratio, the demand for land and water and the fluctuation of the capital and the number of workers. The determined capital and the number of workers could improve the competitive advantage of Taegu city and could be utilized as criteria for the compilation of the budget, determination of policy for supporting plan of companies, the forecast of number of workers and the training plan of workers.

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소비자의 판매자 선택을 위한 게임 모델

  • No, Sang-Gyu;An, Jeong-Nam
    • Proceedings of the Korea Association of Information Systems Conference
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    • 2005.12a
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    • pp.326-333
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this paper is to provide a decision support method to a rational buyer, who wants to pay the least price for the product with the highest quality and service. We suggest a minimum efficiency game model and DEA game model to valuate many vendors whose qualifies of outputs are measured by percentage. Our results gave a decision maker (buyer) the upper bound and lower bound of the true efficiency score of a decision making unit (vendor) with respect to the benchmark (target) set by the buyer. As a result, a buyer can choose the best vendor in terms of his/her preference.

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Determinants of nuclear power expansion in Indonesia

  • Cho, Inkyung;Oh, Surim;Kim, Soohyeon;Ardin, Fadolly;Heo, Eunnyeong
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.1
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    • pp.314-321
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    • 2021
  • As Indonesia is rich in natural resources, nuclear power remains a low priority among energy alternatives. However, Indonesia needs to introduce nuclear power to improve the atmospheric environment and to support sustainable economic growth. This study conducted a two-stage survey of logit-probit and analytic hierarchy process to analyze the perception of Indonesian energy policymakers regarding the introduction of nuclear power, the potential for change, and key decision factors. The analysis confirms that the perception of nuclear power is positive and that the willingness to expand nuclear power can improve if negative conditions, such as underdeveloped technology level, foreign aid and assistance, and safety issues are addressed. In addition, it is confirmed that the policy makers consider political/social and environmental factors to be more important for decision-making. The results of this study can give inplications and be used as a key reference for Indonesia's nuclear power policy

Decision Supporting Methodology and System Based on Theory of Constraints for Optimal Product Portfolio Strategy in Shipbuilding Industry (제약이론을 기반으로 한 최적제품조합 의사결정 지원 방법론 및 시스템)

  • Kim, In-Il;Han, Seong-Hwan;Kwon, Min-Chull
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.362-371
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    • 2009
  • Shipbuilding is a typical 'build to order' industry. It has a business model that generates revenues from building various ships and offshore products in accordance with owner's requirements at each production stage. Under uncertainty in shipping market, it is very essential for the shipbuilder to prepare the fast and competitive decision for product portfolio strategy in order to maximize contribution margin by exploiting production facilities and constraints. In this study, we introduce the unique decision supporting methodology for the optimal product portfolio sets based on Theory of Constraints(TOC). This methodology is established by adopting the concept of Drum Buffer Rope(DBR) in constraints planning and Throughput Accounting (TA) in management accounting of TOC. In addition, Decision Supporting System(DSS) is implemented. This DSS system provides a throughput estimator with reflecting the cost structure of shipbuilding industry and a resource simulator built on heuristic algorithms to operate major constraint-resources in shipyard such as dock, quay and pre-erection area etc. Several examples are presented to show that the proposed methodology and system can effectively support the strategic decision-making process of a global shipbuilding company.

USN Technologies Decision Making Matrix for the Efficiency Management of Earthwork Selection (효율적인 토공사 계측관리를 위한 USN기술 선정 의사결정 매트릭스 도출)

  • Jung, Seung-Woo;Kwon, Soon-Wook
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.55-62
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    • 2011
  • Recently, construction work has diversified and become larger. So, a systematic measurement and management measures are required. In this study, USN technology which is one of the most important network technologies was selected. Based on elements derived from comparison of each element of standard was calculated according to the importance of the elements. The importance of the decision to support the proposed model is explained by integrating the importance of each criteria and decision-support model by considering the situation and creating a matrix of considerations for the construction of earthwork. The results of this study show that USN technology in the context of judging criteria can be selected for the earthwork.

Information Engineering and Workflow Design in a Clinical Decision Support System for Colorectal Cancer Screening in Iran

  • Maserat, Elham;Farajollah, Seiede Sedigheh Seied;Safdari, Reza;Ghazisaeedi, Marjan;Aghdaei, Hamid Asadzadeh;Zali, Mohammad Reza
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.15
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    • pp.6605-6608
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    • 2015
  • Background: Colorectal cancer is a major cause of morbidity and mortality throughout the world. Colorectal cancer screening is an optimal way for reducing of morbidity and mortality and a clinical decision support system (CDSS) plays an important role in predicting success of screening processes. DSS is a computer-based information system that improves the delivery of preventive care services. The aim of this article was to detail engineering of information requirements and work flow design of CDSS for a colorectal cancer screening program. Materials and Methods: In the first stage a screening minimum data set was determined. Developed and developing countries were analyzed for identifying this data set. Then information deficiencies and gaps were determined by check list. The second stage was a qualitative survey with a semi-structured interview as the study tool. A total of 15 users and stakeholders' perspectives about workflow of CDSS were studied. Finally workflow of DSS of control program was designed by standard clinical practice guidelines and perspectives. Results: Screening minimum data set of national colorectal cancer screening program was defined in five sections, including colonoscopy data set, surgery, pathology, genetics and pedigree data set. Deficiencies and information gaps were analyzed. Then we designed a work process standard of screening. Finally workflow of DSS and entry stage were determined. Conclusions: A CDSS facilitates complex decision making for screening and has key roles in designing optimal interactions between colonoscopy, pathology and laboratory departments. Also workflow analysis is useful to identify data reconciliation strategies to address documentation gaps. Following recommendations of CDSS should improve quality of colorectal cancer screening.

Optimum Allocation Model of Military Engineer Equipments for Artillery Position Development (포병진지 구축을 위한 공병장비 최적배정 모형)

  • Jang, Young Cho;Lee, Moon Gul
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.103-113
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    • 2017
  • The artillery is a key element of the ground forces operation during wartime, and the military engineers support the artillery position development operation to support the smooth operation of the artillery. In establishing the artillery position development operation plan, the commander requires more than his intuition to find the best option reflecting a number of elements of the battlefield situation which changes every minute. Moreover, the number of available equipment is smaller than the number of required position developments, and the effective equipment operation becomes essential element of this issue. This study quantified the capability of the available engineering equipment, organized a number of teams enabling equipment to put out the maximum capacity based on the quantified figures, and formed the model which allocates the team to the developing points to minimize the developing time. The goal programming method was applied to resolve the problem. The developed model was applied to compare the total mission duration following the number of teams, the variable for commander's decision, and the result of this study can be used as the quantitative data for commander's decision making process in establishing the artillery position development support operation through effective equipment management.

A Consensus-Building Support System for Water Environment Governance Based on Multi-Criteria Decision Making (물환경 거버넌스를 위한 다기준의사결정 기반 합의형성 지원시스템)

  • Lee, Jin Hee;Yi, Choong Sung;Kim, Gil Ho
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.7
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    • pp.573-585
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    • 2014
  • In this study, we propose a consensus-building support system to engage various stakeholders, transparently disseminate information, ensure objective decision-making, and reflect the view of each stakeholder as a methodology or tool for resolving conflicts that may arise in the process of implementing water environment policies and plans. The system suggests ways to resolve issues by engaging all interested actors and not just a few influential groups of stakeholders imposing their solutions upon local users. The system provides an environment where stakeholders can find solutions to conflicts through their own efforts, mediating competing interests through the interactions such as negotiations and conciliation to reach a consensus. To verify the applicability of the proposed consensus-building support system, simulated role-playing albeit restricted was conducted on the case of the Hantangang Dam construction. The simulation validated that open discussions and negotiations with the local community or NGO by the government increased the efficacy of negotiations.