• 한국수산과학회지
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• 제57권3호
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• pp.292-301
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• 2024

It is challenging to simultaneously estimate parameters in a stock-recruitment relationship, steepness, and natural mortality rate with the other parameters within an age-structured assessment model even in a data-rich situation. Such a problem leads to uncertainty in estimates of management references such as maximum sustainable yield (MSY), which are affected by those components. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of those parameters on MSY by analyzing the process of estimating the MSY. For illustration, we used two data sets: The chub mackerel Scomber japonicus in the Korean waters and the yellowtail flounder Limanda ferruginea in the Southern New England-Mid Atlantic. As a result, the natural mortality rate influenced spawning stock biomass per recruit, yield per recruit, and MSY, while steepness affected MSY. A sensitivity analysis enabled us to estimate the natural mortality rate and steepness. The optimal set of steepness and natural mortality was 1.0 and 0.37 per year for the chub mackerel, and 0.35, and 0.8 per year for the yellowtail flounder, respectively.

• 한국수학사학회지
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• 제27권3호
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• pp.197-210
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• 2014

Species like insects and fishes have, in many cases, non-overlapping time intervals of one generation and their descendant one. So the population dynamics of such species can be formulated as discrete models. In this paper various discrete population models are introduced in chronological order. The author's investigation starts with the Malthusian model suggested in 1798, and continues through Verhulst model(the discrete logistic model), Ricker model, the Beverton-Holt stock-recruitment model, Shep-herd model, Hassell model and Sigmoid type Beverton-Holt model. We discuss the mathematical and practical significance of each model and analyze its properties. Also the stability properties of stationary solutions of the models are studied analytically and illustratively using GSP, a computer software. The visual outputs generated by GSP are compared with the analytical stability results.

• 한국수산과학회지
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• 제40권6호
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• pp.367-373
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• 2007

We assessed the stock of the southern bluefin tuna (SBT, Thunnus maccoyii) by applying the MULTIFAN-CL model. The model is spatially disaggregated, with the population and fisheries stratified into a number of regions within the overall stock range. Catch, effort, length-frequency, and tagging data from 1965 to 2003 were stratified by three regions and four quarters (Jan-Mar, Apr-Jun, Jul-Sept and Oct-Dec). These data were used to estimate the instantaneous fishing mortality (F), biomass, spawning biomass, recruitment, and so on. The Commission for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna (CCSBT) used only Japanese data and did not consider migration for the SBT stock assessment. By contrast, we used Japanese, Australian, New Zealand, Taiwanese, and Korean data, and considered migration. As a result, the estimated annual average F of all age classes was 0.073/yr and the F of age class 6-10 was the highest. The results also showed that the biomass and recruitment of SBT had declined significantly after 1965. Compared with the CCSBT results, the estimated spawning biomass in this study was lower and more uncertain. However, we will conduct a sensitivity analysis to get more accurate biological parameters and results. In addition, we need to use the bootstrap resampling method to quantify the uncertainty.

• 한국수산과학회지
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• 제51권1호
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• pp.79-90
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• 2018

Fish ages are critical information in fish stock assessments because they are required for age-structure models such as virtual population analysis and stochastic catch-at-age models, whose outputs include recruitment strengths, a spawning stock size (abundance or biomass), and the projection of a fish population size in future. However, most countries other than the developed countries have not identified ages of fish caught by fisheries or surveys in a consistent manner for a long time (e.g.,>20 years). Instead, data about fish body sizes (e.g., lengths) have been well available because of ease of measurement. To infer age compositions of fish in a target group using fish length data, we intended to improve the length frequency analysis (LFA), which Schnute and Fournier had introduced in 1980. Our study was different in two ways from the Schnute and Fournier's method. First we calculated not only point estimates of age compositions but also the uncertainty in those estimates. Second, we modified LFA based on the von Bertalanffy growth model (vB-based model) to allow both individual-to-individual and cohort-to-cohort variability in estimates of parameters in the vB-based model. For illustration, we used data about lengths of Korean mackerel Scomber japonicas caught by purse-seine fisheries from 2000-2016.

• 수산해양기술연구
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• 제51권4호
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• pp.535-544
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• 2015

본 연구에서는 가입에 따른 산란자원량의 변화를 나타내어 가입남획을 방지하는 가입당 산란자원량 모델(spawning biomass per recruit model)을 비교 분석하였다. 가입당 산란자원량 모델은 연령별 선택비를 고려하지 않는 (knife-edged selectivity) 방법과 연령별 선택비를 고려한 (age specific selectivity) 방법의 두 가지가 있으며 연령별 선택비를 고려하지 않는 방법의 경우 가입당 자원량의 식에 성숙비를 곱함으로써 가입당 산란자원량을 나타낼 수 있다. 하지만 기존의 가입당 산란자원량 추정 방법은 어구가입 이후의 모든 연령을 고려하지 않고 어구가입 연령의 성숙비만을 가입당 자원량에 곱함으로써 가입당 산란자원량을 계산하였다. 본 연구에서는 이를 수정하여 어구가입 이후의 모든 연령을 고려한, 즉, 연령별 자원량에 대해 가중평균된 성숙비를 가입당 자원량에 곱하여 가입당 산란자원량을 추정하였다. 한국 근해에서 유자망에 의해 어획되는 참조기자원을 대상으로 기존의 방법과 새로운 방법을 적용하여 추정된 가입당 산란자원량을 비교한 결과 어구가입연령의 성숙비가 1.00 이상에서는 가입당 산란자원량이 차이가 없었다. 그러나 성숙비가 1.00 미만인 연령에서는 어구가입연령이 낮을수록 오차가 크게 나타났으며 기존 방법에 의해 가입당 산란자원량이 과소 추정되었고 어구가입연령별로 가입당 산란자원량의 오차 값을 비교하였을 때, 적게는 4세 때의 0.25 g에서 많게는 1세 때의 130.69 g만큼의 오차가 나타났다. 또한 연령별 선택비를 고려하지 않는 방법과 연령별 선택비를 고려한 방법을 통해 $F_{35%}$를 비교한 결과 연령별 선택비를 고려하지 않는 방법 중 기존 방법에 의한 $F_{35%}$가 0.349/year로 나타났으며 새로운 방법에 의한 $F_{35%}$가 0.302/year로써 새로운 방법에 의한 값이 연령별 선택비를 고려한 방법에 의한 $F_{35%}$인 0.320/year와 유사하게 추정되었다. 따라서 본 연구에서 제시된 새로운 가입당 산란자원량 방법은 대부분의 어구가입연령이 2세 미만으로 낮게 나타나는 한국 연근해 어종을 대상으로 가입당 산란자원량 모델을 통해 자원평가를 실시할 경우 가입당 산란자원량과 그에 따른 적정어획수준의 오차 값을 줄여줄 것이며 기존의 방법을 통한 $F_{35%}$의 값은 과대 추정되어 남획의 위험이 있으므로 새로운 방법을 통해 적정어획수준을 추정하는 것이 옳다고 판단된다.

• 한국수산과학회지
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• 제51권3호
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• pp.313-320
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• 2018

Chub mackerel Scomber japonicus is an economically important pelagic species in the western North Pacific. In the last 50 years, the annual total catch in Korean waters showed large fluctuations, ranging from 100 to $420{\times}10^3tons$. To provide a biological reference point for management of chub mackerel, we applied a simulation-based yield-per-recruit (Y/R) model that considered both temperature-dependent growth and size-dependent mortality. We estimated the fisheries yield with respect to varying biological reference points and environmental conditions, including 1) the instantaneous rate of fishing mortality (F), 2) length of fish at first capture ($L_c$), and 3) water temperature. The result of our analysis showed that the Y/R could be greatest when the $L_c$ ranges from 19-27 cm and F ranges from $1.48-2.00yr^{-1}$. Y/R increases with increased water temperature between 15 and $23^{\circ}C$. We suggest targeting an $L_c$ of 17 cm (age=0.6 years) under the assumed current of $F=0.48yr^{-1}$ for maximizing the chub mackerel harvest. Further analysis considering spawning and recruitment processes are required to provide biological reference points to ensure the sustainability of chub mackerel fisheries in Korean waters.