• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.33-60
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• 2023

This paper analyzes the entire distribution of stock market returns/volatility in five emerging markets (ASEAN5) and figures out the conditional distribution of the CHI_EPU index. The aim is to examine the impact of CHI_EPU on the stock returns/volatility density of ASEAN5 markets. It also examined whether changes in CHI_EPU explain returns at higher or lower points (abnormal returns). This paper models the behaviour of stock returns from March 2011 to June 2018 using a non-parametric conditional density estimation approach. The results indicate that CHI_EPU diminishes stock returns and augments volatility in ASEAN5 markets, except for Malaysia, where it affects stock returns positively. The possible reason for this positive impact is that EPU is not the leading factor reducing Malaysian stock returns; but, other forces, such as dependency on other countries' stock markets and global factors, may have a positive impact on stock returns (Bachmann and Bayer, 2013). Thus, the risk of simultaneous investment in Chinese and ASEAN5 stock markets, except Malaysia, is high. Further, the degree of this influence intensifies at extreme high/low intervals (positive/negative tails). The findings of this study have significant implications for investors, policymakers, market agents, and analysts of ASEAN5.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.91-131
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• 2007

In the paper, the effects of sidecar on index arbitrage trading and non-index arbitrage trading in the Korean stock market are examined. The analyses of return, volatility, and liquidity dynamics illustrate that there are no distinct differences for index arbitrage group and non-index arbitrage group surrounding the sidecar events. For further analysis, we construct pseudo-sidecar sample and analyse the effects of the actual sidecar and pseudo-sidecar on arbitrage sample and non-index arbitrage sample. The result of analysis using pseudo-sidecar shows that the differences between index arbitrage group and non-index arbitrage group are larger in pseudo-sidecar sample than in actual sidecar sample. This means that former results can be explained by temporary order clustering in one side before and after the event. Sidecar has little effect on non-index arbitrage group, however, it has relatively large effect on arbitrage group. These results imply that it needs to redesign the sidecar system of the Korean stock market which applies for all program trading including arbitrage and non-index arbitrage trading.

• Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
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• v.4 no.4
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• pp.113-125
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• 2008

This paper investigates the spillover effects(co-movements) between korean and U.S stock market by KOSPI and DJIA Index. Especially it compare to the pre- and post period of U.S. financial crisis resulted from sub-prime mortgage loan. The main results are as follows. First, the spillover effects of DJIA(U.S. market) to KOSPI(Korean market) are strong. This result accord with the former researches on this subject. Second, spillover effects are more strong after U.S. financial crisis. A possible reason for this phenomenon is a trend which the major investors such as foreign and institutional investors in domestic stock market have more attention to U.S. stock market. Third, the spillover effects appear in the opposite direction, that is KOSPI(Korean Stock Market) to DJIA(U.S. Stock Market). It seems to be the results of asian stock market's growing infIuences to European and U.S Markets.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2000.10a
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• pp.29-32
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• 2000

We proposed a neural network based “left shoulder”detector. The auto-associative neural network was trained with the “left shoulder”patterns obtained from the Korea Composite Stock Price Index, and then tested out-of-sample with a reasonably good result. A hypothetical investment strategy based on the detector achieved a return of 132% in comparison with 39% return from a buy and hold strategy

• The Pure and Applied Mathematics
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.227-241
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• 2017

The study investigates the stock market using emotion index calculated from SMD based on investors' emotion. In the VAR anlaysis, we find that the correlation between the KOSPI200 return and emotion score sum is highest in 2- or 3- day lag. This study concludes that explanatory power of the SMD emotion index is limited in explaining the Korean stock market yet.

• Management Science and Financial Engineering
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.37-41
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• 2013

This study presents an application of stochastic model for limit order book (LOB) dynamics to Korean Stock Index Futures (KOSPI 200 Futures). Since KOSPI 200 futures market is widely known as one of the most liquid markets in the world, direct application of an existing model is hardly possible. Therefore, we modified an existing model to successfully model and predict the dynamics of extremely liquid KOSPI 200 futures market.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.11
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• pp.117-126
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• 2020

This paper is aimed to explore the co-movement capital market in Southeast Asia and analysis the correlation of conventional and Islamic Index in the regional and global equity. This research become necessary to represent the risk on the capital market and measure market performance, as investor considers the volatility before investing. The time series daily data use from April 2012 to April 2020 both conventional and Islamic stock index in Malaysia and Indonesia. This paper examines the dynamics of conditional volatilities and correlations between those markets by using Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (MGARCH). Our result shows that conventional or composite index in Malaysia less volatile than Islamic, but on the other hand, both drive correlation movement. The other output captures that Islamic Index in Indonesian capital market more gradual volatilities than the Composite Index that tends to be low in risk so that investors intend to keep the shares. Generally, the result shows a correlation in each country for conventional and the Islamic index. However, Internationally Indonesia and Malaysia composite and Islamic is low correlated. Regionally Indonesia's indices movement looks to be more correlated and it's similar to Malaysian Capital Market counterparts. In the global market distress condition, the diversification portfolio between Indonesia and Malaysia does not give many benefits.

• International journal of advanced smart convergence
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.132-139
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• 2019

We address the problem about forecasting the direction of stock price movement in the Korea market. Recently, the deep neural network is popularly applied in this area of research. In deep neural network systems, proper parameter initialization reduces training time and improves the performance of the model. Therefore, in our study, we propose a novel parameter initialization technique and apply this technique for the stock price movement prediction model. Specifically, we design a framework which consists of two models: a base model and a main prediction model. The base model constructed with LSTM is trained by using the large data which is generated by a large amount of the stock data to achieve optimal parameters. The main prediction model with the same architecture as the base model uses the optimal parameter initialization. Thus, the main prediction model is trained by only using the data of the given stock. Moreover, the stock price movements can be affected by other related information in the stock market. For this reason, we conducted our research with two types of inputs. The first type is the stock features, and the second type is a combination of the stock features and the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) features. Empirical results conducted on the top five stocks in the KOSPI list in terms of market capitalization indicate that our approaches achieve better predictive accuracy and F1-score comparing to other baseline models.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.27-35
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• 2021

Purpose: This study is to investigate the effect of managerial ownership level in distribution and service companies on the stock price crash. The managerial ownership level affects the firm's information disclosure policy. If managers conceal or withholds business-related unfavorable factors over a long period, the firm's stock price is likely to plummet. In a similar vein, management's equity affects information opacity, and information asymmetry affects stock price collapse. Research design, data, and methodology: A regression analysis is conducted using the data on companies listed on the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) between 2012-2017 to examine the effect of the managerial ownership level on stock price crash risks. Results: Logistic and regression results indicate that the stock price crash risk was reduced as managerial ownership levels are increased. The managerial ownership level has a significant negative coefficient on stock price crash risk, negative conditional return skewness of firm-specific weekly return distribution, and asymmetric volatility between positive and negative price-to-earnings ratios. Conclusions: As the ownership and management align, the likeliness of withholding business-related information is reduced. This study's results imply that the stock price crash risk reduces as the managerial ownership level increases because shareholder and manager interests coincide, thereby reducing information asymmetry.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.191-212
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• 2003

Recently, there is a growing body of literature that suggests that information inefficiency is one of the causes of the asymmetric volatility. If this explanation for the asymmetric volatility is appropriate, then innovations, such as the introduction of futures, may be expected to impact the asymmetric volatility of stock market. As transaction costs and margin requirements in the futures market are lower than those in the spot market, new information is transmitted to futures prices more quickly and affects spot prices through arbitrage trading with spots. Also, the merit of the futures market may attract noise traders away from the spot market to the futures market. This study examines the impact of futures on the asymmetry of stock market volatility. If the asymmetric volatility is significant lower post-futures and exist in the futures market, it has validity that the asymmetric volatility is caused by information inefficiency in the spot market. The data examined are daily logarithmic returns on KOSPI 200 stock price index from January 4, 1993 to December 26, 2000. To examine the existence of the asymmetric volatility in the futures market, logarithmic returns on KOSPI 200 futures are used from May 4, 1996 to December 26, 2000. We used a conditional mode of TGARCH(threshold GARCH) of Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkel(1993). Pre-futures the spot market exhibits significant asymmetric responses of volatility to news and post-futures asymmetries are significantly lower, irrespective of bear market and bull market. The results suggest that the introduction of stock index futures has an effect on the asymmetric volatility of the spot market and are inconsistent with leverage being the sole explanation of asymmetry. However, it is found that the volatility of futures is not so asymmetric as expected.