• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.109-124
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• 2002

This study is an effort to develop a stochastic model of precipitation series that preserves the pattern of occurrence of precipitation events throughout the year as well as several characteristics of the duration, amount, and intensity of precipitation events. In this study an event cluster model is used to describe the occurrence of precipitation events. A logarithmic negative mixture distribution is used to describe event duration and separation. The number of events within each cluster is also described by the Poisson cluster process. The duration of each event within a cluster and the separation of events within a single cluster are described by a logarithmic negative mixture distribution. The stochastic model for hourly precipitation occurrence process is fitted to historical precipitation data by estimating the model parameters. To allow for seasonal variations in the precipitation process, the model parameters are estimated separately for each month. an analysis of thirty-four years of historical and simulated hourly precipitation data for Seoul indicates that the stochastic model preserves many features of historical precipitation. The seasonal variations in number of precipitation events in each month for the historical and simulated data are also approximately identical. The marginal distributions for event characteristics for the historical and simulated data were similar. The conditional distributions for event characteristics for the historical and simulated data showed in general good agreement with each other.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.12 no.6
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• pp.803-818
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• 2013

In this study, analytical and experimental modal analyses of a scaled bridge model are carried out to extract the dynamic characteristics such as natural frequency, mode shapes and damping ratios. For this purpose, a scaled bridge model is constructed in laboratory conditions. Three dimensional finite element model of the bridge is constituted and dynamic characteristics are determined, analytically. To identify the dynamic characteristics experimentally; Experimental Modal Analyses (ambient and forced vibration tests) are conducted to the bridge model. In the ambient vibration tests, natural excitations are provided and the response of the bridge model is measured. Sensitivity accelerometers are placed to collect signals from the measurements. The signals collected from the tests are processed by Operational Modal Analysis; and the dynamic characteristics of the bridge model are estimated using Enhanced Frequency Domain Decomposition and Stochastic Subspace Identification methods. In the forced vibration tests, excitation of the bridge model is induced by an impact hammer and the frequency response functions are obtained. From the finite element analyses, a total of 8 natural frequencies are attained between 28.33 and 313.5 Hz. Considering the first eight mode shapes, these modes can be classified into longitudinal, transverse and vertical modes. It is seen that the dynamic characteristics obtained from the ambient and forced vibration tests are close to each other. It can be stated that the both of Enhanced Frequency Domain Decomposition and Stochastic Subspace Identification methods are very useful to identify the dynamic characteristics of the bridge model. The first eight natural frequencies are obtained from experimental measurements between 25.00-299.5 Hz. In addition, the dynamic characteristics obtained from the finite element analyses have a good correlation with experimental frequencies and mode shapes. The MAC values obtained between 90-100% and 80-100% using experimental results and experimental-analytical results, respectively.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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• 2006.05a
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• pp.201-202
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• 2006

To analyze the dynamic characteristics of the bundle drawing process, we employed a Random Phase Spectrum method to generate stochastic test signals that had a given autocorrelation function. And the spectra of the dynamics of the process outputs were obtained, based on the dynamic model of the bundle drawing process. Results showed that the RPS method was very effective to generate stochastic signals that had an exponential function form. The drawing process had the traits that there existed a special frequency range, incurring the process resonance.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.127-136
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• 1991

This paper is concerned with the development and application of a stochastic model for daily sulphur dioxide $(SO_2)$ concentrations in urban area (Seoul). For this, the characteristics of the regression trend, periodicity and dependence of the daily $SO_2$ concentration are investigated by a statistisical analysis of the daily average $SO_2$ values measured in Seoul area during 1989 $\sim$ 1990. Based on these, nonlinear regression time series model for the prediction of daily $SO_2$ concentrations is derived. A statistical procedure for using the model to predict the concentration level is also proposed.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.49-59
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• 2005

This paper is to propose various safety design models of tolerance specifications with different consumer requirements. In these models, tolerance specifications can be jointly determined by considering all the stochastic, economic, robust and engineering safety design factors with various characteristics of interest. In this paper, the proposed models are easily formulated for design engineers.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.5 no.4
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• pp.17-26
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• 2001

In order to estimate peak ground motions and frequency characteristics of strong ground motions in southern korea, we employed the stochastic simulation method with the moment magnitude(M$_{w}$) and the hypocentral distance(R). We estimated same input parameters that account for specific properties of source and propagation processes, and applied them to the stochastic simulation method. The stress drop($\Delta$$\sigma$) of 100-bar was estimated considering results of research in ENA, China, and southern korea. The attenuation parameter x was calculated by analyzing 57 seismograms recorded from September 1996 to October 1997 and the estimation result of the attenuation parameter x is 0.00112+0.000224 R where R is hypocenter distance. We estimated strong ground motion relations using the stochastic simulation method with suitable input parameters(e.g. $\Delta$$\sigma$, x, and so on). At last, we derived relations between hypocentral distances and ground motions(seismic attenuation equation) using results of the stochastic prediction.esults of the stochastic prediction.n.

• Computational Structural Engineering
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.127-136
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• 1995

In this paper the stochastic FE analysis considering the material and geometrical property of the plate structure is performed by the weighted integral method. To consider the stochasity of the material and geometrical property, the stochastic field is assumed respectively. The mean value of the stochastic field is 0 and the value of variance is assumed as 0.1. The characteristics of the assumed stochastic field is represented by auto-correlation function. This auto-correlation function is used in evaluating the response variability of the plate structure. In this study a new auto-correlation function is derived to concern the uncertainty of the plate thickness. The newly derived auto-correlation function is a function of auto-correlation function and coefficient of variation of the assumed stochastic field. The two results, obtained by proposed Weighted Integral method and Monte Carlo Simulation method, are coincided with each other and these results are almost equal to the theoretical result that is derived in this study. In the case of considering the variability of plate thickness, the obtained result is well coincide with those of Lawrence and Monte Carlo simulation.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 1992.07a
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• pp.411-418
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• 1992

The purpose of this study is to develop dynamic-stochastic models that can forecast the inflow into reservoir during low/drought periods and flood periods. For the formulation of the models, the discrete transfer function is utilized to construct the deterministic characteristics, and the ARIMA model is utilized to construct the stochastic characteristics of residuals. The stochastic variations and structures of time series on hydrological data are examined by employing the auto/cross covariance function and auto/cross correlation function. Also, general modeling processes and forecasting method are used the model building methods of Box and Jenkins. For the verifications and applications of the developed models, the Chungju multi-purpose reservoir which is located in the South Han river systems is selected. Input data required are the current and past reservoir inflow and Yungchun water levels. In order to transform the water level at Yungchon into streamflows, the water level-streamflows rating curves at low/drought periods and flood periods are estimated. The models are calibrated with the flood periods of 1988 and 1989 and hourly data for 1990 flood are analyzed. Also, for the low/drought periods, daily data of 1988 and 1989 are calibrated, and daily data for 1989 are analyzed.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 1998.10a
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• pp.497-504
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• 1998

In the nonlinear dynamic structural analysis, the given ground excitation as an input should be well defined. Because of the lack of recorded accelerograms in Korea, it is required to generate an artificial earthquake by a stochastic model of ground excitation with various dynamic properties rather than recorded accelerograms. It is well own that earthquake motions are generally non-stationary with time-varying intensity and frequency content. Many researchers have proposed non-stationary random process models. Yeh and Wen (1990) proposed a non-stationary stochastic process model which can be modeled as components with an intensity function, a frequency modulation function and a power spectral density function to describe such non-stationary characteristics. This model is based on the simulation for the strong-motion earthquakes with magnitude greater than approximately 5.0~6.0, because it will be not only expected to cause structural damage but also involved the characteristics of earthquake motions. Also, the recorded earthquake motion within this range are still very scarce in Korea. Thus, it is necessary to verify the model by the application of it to the mid-magnitude (approximately 4.0~6.0) earthquakes actually recorded in domestic or foreign area. The purpose of the paper is to generate an artificial earthquake using the model of Yeh and Wen in the area with low seismicity.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2010.02a
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• pp.51.2-51.2
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• 2010

A novel approach of Poisson cluster stochastic rainfall generator was validated in its ability to reproduce important rainfall and watershed response characteristics at 104 locations of the United States. The suggested novel approach - The Hybrid Model(THM), as compared to the traditional ones, has an additional function to account for the year-to-year variability of rainfall statistics. The two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to see how well THM and traditional approach of Poisson cluster rainfall model reproduce the distribution of the following hydrologic variables: monthly maximum rainfall depths with 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 hour duration, monthly maximum flow peaks at the virtual watersheds with Curve Number of 50, 60, 70, 80 and 90; and monthly runoff depths at the same virtual watersheds. In all of the testing variables, THM significantly outperformed the traditional approach. This result indicates that the year-to-year variability of rainfall statistics contains important information about the characteristics of rainfall processes that were not considered by the conventional approach of Poisson cluster rainfall modeling and that further considering it in rainfall simulation will enhance the performance of the rainfall models.