• Title/Summary/Keyword: Statistical decision

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Exchange paradox and rational decision (교환역설과 합리적 의사결정)

  • 채경철;안창원
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.203-214
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    • 1996
  • In this tutorial note, we resolve debates generated by Exchange Paradox. In particular, we show that Bayesian solution is superior to frequentist's. Then, in terms of decision analysis, we show that any rational decision is superior to no-action policy.

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An Analysis of Career Exploration and Career Decision-making by Identity Statuses of Vocational High School Students (실업계 고등학생의 자아정체감 상태에 따른 진로탐색 및 진로결정 분석)

  • PARK, Sung-Mi
    • Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.11-20
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    • 2004
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze of career exploration and career decision-making by identity statuses(diffusion, foreclosure, moratorium, achievement) of vocational high school students. The research questions were formulated as follows. (1) Is there a difference in identity statuses by level of the career exploration? (2) Is there a difference in identity statuses by level of the career decision-making? (3) How much identity statuses-identity diffusion, identity foreclosure, identity moratorium, identity achievement-effect to the career exploration and career decision-making? 255 vocational high school students in Pusan were sampled. For the statistical analysis, Oneway, analysis of covariance structure by AMOS 4.0 was applied. The results of the study were as follows. (1) The identity diffusion was low in the level of career exploration, but the identity moratorium and achievement were high in the level of career exploration. (3) The identity diffusion was low in the level of career decision-making, but the identity achievement was high in the level of career decision-making. (4) The identity diffusion effected to negatively career exploration and career decision-making, identity foreclosure effected to low positively career exploration and career decision-making, identity moratorium effected to positively career exploration but negatively career decision-making, identity achievement effected to positively career exploration and career decision-making.

A Statistical Model for Decisions on Arrest Warrants (구속영장발부 여부에 관한 통계모형)

  • Kim, Jung-Hun;Lee, Na-Rae;Lee, Gye-Min
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.1225-1234
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    • 2010
  • When most examining judges deny the request for an arrest warrant, they cite (as a reason) that there is no worry about escape or the destruction of evidence. Consequently, there has been no knowing what characteristics of a crime mainly affect the decision for an arrest warrant and there has been significant dispute about the exact decision criteria used for an arrest warrant. This paper classified the data about the request of arrest warrants for crimes committed in the jurisdiction of the Jinju Public Prosecutors' Office in 2006, 2007 and 2008, into 7 categories according to characteristics of the crimes. For each category we construct a statistical model about the decision on arrest warrants by applying a crosstabulation analysis in order to look for the characteristic of crime that affect the decision for an arrest warrant.

Deciding the Optimal Shutdown Time Incorporating the Accident Forecasting Model (원자력 발전소 사고 예측 모형과 병합한 최적 운행중지 결정 모형)

  • Yang, Hee Joong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.171-178
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    • 2018
  • Recently, the continuing operation of nuclear power plants has become a major controversial issue in Korea. Whether to continue to operate nuclear power plants is a matter to be determined considering many factors including social and political factors as well as economic factors. But in this paper we concentrate only on the economic factors to make an optimum decision on operating nuclear power plants. Decisions should be based on forecasts of plant accident risks and large and small accident data from power plants. We outline the structure of a decision model that incorporate accident risks. We formulate to decide whether to shutdown permanently, shutdown temporarily for maintenance, or to operate one period of time and then periodically repeat the analysis and decision process with additional information about new costs and risks. The forecasting model to predict nuclear power plant accidents is incorporated for an improved decision making. First, we build a one-period decision model and extend this theory to a multi-period model. In this paper we utilize influence diagrams as well as decision trees for modeling. And bayesian statistical approach is utilized. Many of the parameter values in this model may be set fairly subjective by decision makers. Once the parameter values have been determined, the model will be able to present the optimal decision according to that value.

Channel Statistical MAC Protocol for Cognitive Radio

  • Xiang, Gao;Zhu, Wenmin;Park, Hyung-Kun
    • Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.40-44
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    • 2010
  • opportunistic spectrum access (OSA) allows unlicensed users to share licensed spectrum in space and time with no or little interference to primary users, with bring new research challenges in MAC design. We propose a cognitive MAC protocol using statistical channel information and selecting appropriate idle channel for transmission. The protocol based on the CSMA/CA, exploits statistics of spectrum usage for decision making on channel access. Idle channel availability, spectrum hole sufficiency and available channel condition will be included in algorithm statistical information. The model include the control channel and data channel, the transmitter negotiates with receiver on transmission parameters through control channel, statistical decision results (successful rate of transmission) from exchanged transmission parameters of control channel should pass the threshold and decide the data transmission with spectrum hole on data channel. A dynamical sensing range as a important parameter introduced to maintain the our protocol performance. The proposed protocol's simulation will show that proposed protocol does improve the throughput performance via traditional opportunistic spectrum access MAC protocol.

Multi-Channel MAC Protocol Using Statistical Channel Utilization for Cognitive Networks

  • Xiang, Gao;Zhu, Wen-Min;Park, Hyung-Kun
    • Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.273-276
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    • 2010
  • Opportunistic spectrum access (OSA) allows unlicensed users to share licensed spectrum in space and time with no or little interference to primary users, with bring new research challenges in MAC design. We propose a cognitive MAC protocol using statistical channel information and selecting appropriate idle channel for transmission. The protocol based on the CSMA/CA, exploits statistics of spectrum usage for decision making on channel access. Idle channel availability, spectrum hole sufficiency and available channel condition will be included in algorithm statistical information. The model include the control channel and data channel, the transmitter negotiates with receiver on transmission parameters through control channel, statistical decision results (successful rate of transmission) from exchanged transmission parameters of control channel should pass the threshold and decide the data transmission with spectrum hole on data channel. The proposed protocol's simulation will show that proposed protocol does improve the throughput performance via traditional opportunistic spectrum access MAC protocol.

Statistical Methodologies for Scaling Factor Implementation: Part 1. Overview of Current Scaling Factor Method for Radioactive Waste Characterization

  • Kim, Tae-Hyeong;Park, Junghwan;Lee, Jeongmook;Kim, Junhyuck;Kim, Jong-Yun;Lim, Sang Ho
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.517-536
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    • 2020
  • The radionuclide inventory in radioactive waste from nuclear power plants should be determined to secure the safety of final repositories. As an alternative to time-consuming, labor-intensive, and destructive radiochemical analysis, the indirect scaling factor (SF) method has been used to determine the concentrations of difficult-to-measure radionuclides. Despite its long history, the original SF methodology remains almost unchanged and now needs to be improved for advanced SF implementation. Intense public attention and interest have been strongly directed to the reliability of the procedures and data regarding repository safety since the first operation of the low- and intermediate-level radioactive waste disposal facility in Gyeongju, Korea. In this review, statistical methodologies for SF implementation are described and evaluated to achieve reasonable and advanced decision-making. The first part of this review begins with an overview of the current status of the scaling factor method and global experiences, including some specific statistical issues associated with SF implementation. In addition, this review aims to extend the applicability of SF to the characterization of large quantities of waste from the decommissioning of nuclear facilities.

Discriminative Weight Training for a Statistical Model-Based Voice Activity Detection (통계적 모델 기반의 음성 검출기를 위한 변별적 가중치 학습)

  • Kang, Sang-Ick;Jo, Q-Haing;Park, Seung-Seop;Chang, Joon-Hyuk
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.194-198
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    • 2007
  • In this paper, we apply a discriminative weight training to a statistical model-based voice activity detection(VAD). In our approach, the VAD decision rule is expressed as the geometric mean of optimally weighted likelihood ratios(LRs) based on a minimum classification error(MCE) method which is different from the previous works in that different weights are assigned to each frequency bin which is considered more realistic. According to the experimental results, the proposed approach is found to be effective for the statistical model-based VAD using the LR test.

Statistical Model-Based Voice Activity Detection Using the Second-Order Conditional Maximum a Posteriori Criterion with Adapted Threshold (적응형 문턱값을 가지는 2차 조건 사후 최대 확률을 이용한 통계적 모델 기반의 음성 검출기)

  • Kim, Sang-Kyun;Chang, Joon-Hyuk
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.76-81
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, we propose a novel approach to improve the performance of a statistical model-based voice activity detection (VAD) which is based on the second-order conditional maximum a posteriori (CMAP). In our approach, the VAD decision rule is expressed as the geometric mean of likelihood ratios (LRs) based on adapted threshold according to the speech presence probability conditioned on both the current observation and the speech activity decisions in the pervious two frames. Experimental results show that the proposed approach yields better results compared to the statistical model-based and the CMAP-based VAD using the LR test.