• Title/Summary/Keyword: Statistical Decision Making

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A study on the Marketing and Feng-Shui (마케팅과 풍수지리에 관한 고찰)

  • Hwang, Hwa-cheol
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.161-173
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    • 2006
  • The most important two decision-makings which a retail store owner face require which place of the store should geographically be established and which stock should be properly placed on the shelves. The problem of geographic positioning is the decision-making for the store's positioning and stock arrangement within the retail store is the decision-making for the placement store. In order to determine the positioning, the expected area should be analyzed so that the analysis of commercial area can usually be implemented in accordance with retail marketing strategy and therefore the sized of the potential market for example each distric's clientele, competition and, a municipal community's regulations, could be evaluated. But I contend that with only the size of potential market does not give an adequate answer to the problem of a store's positioning. Through the estimation of commercial are in combination with feng-shui, the theory of divination based on topography, the store's position could be selected, taking a positive energy, Gi. This thesis is the starting point of these trials. In the long run, the actual analysis of the study should be continued in a more scientific, systematic, statistical way.

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Pattern Classification Model Design and Performance Comparison for Data Mining of Time Series Data (시계열 자료의 데이터마이닝을 위한 패턴분류 모델설계 및 성능비교)

  • Lee, Soo-Yong;Lee, Kyoung-Joung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.730-736
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, we designed the models for pattern classification which can reflect the latest trend in time series. It has been shown that fusion models based on statistical and AI methods are superior to traditional ones for the pattern classification model supporting decision making. Especially, the hit rates of pattern classification models combined with fuzzy theory are relatively increased. The statistical SVM models combined with fuzzy membership function, or the models combining neural network and FCM has shown good performance. BPN, PNN, FNN, FCM, SVM, FSVM, Decision Tree, Time Series Analysis, and Regression Analysis were used for pattern classification models in the experiments of this paper. The economical indices DB with time series properties of the financial market(Korea, KOSPI200 DB) and the electrocardiogram DB of arrhythmia patients in hospital emergencies(USA, MIT-BIH DB) were used for data base.

The Development and the Effectiveness of a Career Group Counseling Program for Career Maturity, Career-Identity, and Career-Decision Self-Efficacy in High School Students (청소년의 진로성숙도와 진로정체감 및 진로결정 자기효능감 증진을 위한 진로 집단상담 프로그램의 개발과 효과)

  • Kim, Sarah Hyoung-Sun
    • Korean Journal of Child Studies
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.43-59
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study was to develop a Career Group Counseling Program to increase the career maturity, career-identity and career-decision self-efficacy of high school students, and to examine the effectiveness of such a program. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of the program thus developed, an experimental group which was exposed to the program and a control group without exposure to the program were compared. The program was administered over eight weekly sessions, each session lasting ninety minutes. The subjects in this study consisted of twenty four students. The experimental group and a control group were organized with twelve students in each. For the purpose of data processing, SPSS 16.0 was used to analyze the statistical results. The Career Maturity Scale, the Identity Scale, and Career Decision-Making Self-Efficacy Scale were used in a pre-test, post-test, and follow-up test. The findings of this study were as follows : The treatment group exhibited a significant statistically increasing degree of career maturity, career-identity and career-decision self-efficacy levels in comparison to the control group. The results of the study indicated the effectiveness of this newly developed Career Group Counseling Program on increasing career maturity, career-identity and career-decision self-efficacy levels.

Fingerprint Matching Method using Statistical Methods (통계학적 방법을 이용한 지문 정합 방법)

  • Kim, Yong Gil;Park, Jong Mn
    • Smart Media Journal
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.15-19
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    • 2014
  • Fingerprint Recognition System is made up of Off-line treatment and On-line treatment; the one is registering all the information of there trier features which are retrieved in the digitalized fingerprint getting out of the analog fingerprint through the fingerprint acquisition device and the other is the treatment making the decision whether the users are approved to be accessed to the system or not with matching them with the fingerprint features which are retrieved and database from the input fingerprint when the users are approaching the system to use. In this paper, Among various biometrics recognition systems, statistical fingerprint recognition matching methods are considered using minutiae on fingerprints. We define similarity distance measures based on the coordinate and angle of the minutiae, and suggest a fingerprint recognition model following statistical distributions.

A Study on Economic Methodology for Deriving Money Coefficients (금전계수 도출을 위한 경제학적 방법론 연구)

  • Min-Hee Back
    • Journal of Radiation Industry
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.111-118
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    • 2023
  • The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) 103 recommends a cost-benefit analysis method as an auxiliary tool for scientific and rational decision-making for the principle of optimization of radiological protection. In order to conduct a cost-benefit analysis, the safety improvement of nuclear power by regulation must be measured and converted into monetary terms. The improvement of nuclear safety can be measured by reducing the radiation exposure dose of the people, and it is necessary to determine the coefficient to convert the radiation exposure dose into money. The monetary coefficient is calculated as the product of the statistical life value (VSL) and the nominal risk coefficient. In order to derive the monetary coefficient, the willingness to pay (WTP) can be estimated using the contingent valuation method (CVM), which quantifies the value of non-market goods by converting them into monetary units. WTP can be estimated based on the random utility model, which is the basic model for bivariate selection type conditional value measurement data. Statistical life value can be calculated using the estimated WTP and reduction in early mortality, and a monetary coefficient can be derived.

An Empirical Study on Statistical Optimization Model for the Portfolio Construction of Sponsored Search Advertising(SSA) (키워드검색광고 포트폴리오 구성을 위한 통계적 최적화 모델에 대한 실증분석)

  • Yang, Hognkyu;Hong, Juneseok;Kim, Wooju
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.167-194
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    • 2019
  • This research starts from the four basic concepts of incentive incompatibility, limited information, myopia and decision variable which are confronted when making decisions in keyword bidding. In order to make these concept concrete, four framework approaches are designed as follows; Strategic approach for the incentive incompatibility, Statistical approach for the limited information, Alternative optimization for myopia, and New model approach for decision variable. The purpose of this research is to propose the statistical optimization model in constructing the portfolio of Sponsored Search Advertising (SSA) in the Sponsor's perspective through empirical tests which can be used in portfolio decision making. Previous research up to date formulates the CTR estimation model using CPC, Rank, Impression, CVR, etc., individually or collectively as the independent variables. However, many of the variables are not controllable in keyword bidding. Only CPC and Rank can be used as decision variables in the bidding system. Classical SSA model is designed on the basic assumption that the CPC is the decision variable and CTR is the response variable. However, this classical model has so many huddles in the estimation of CTR. The main problem is the uncertainty between CPC and Rank. In keyword bid, CPC is continuously fluctuating even at the same Rank. This uncertainty usually raises questions about the credibility of CTR, along with the practical management problems. Sponsors make decisions in keyword bids under the limited information, and the strategic portfolio approach based on statistical models is necessary. In order to solve the problem in Classical SSA model, the New SSA model frame is designed on the basic assumption that Rank is the decision variable. Rank is proposed as the best decision variable in predicting the CTR in many papers. Further, most of the search engine platforms provide the options and algorithms to make it possible to bid with Rank. Sponsors can participate in the keyword bidding with Rank. Therefore, this paper tries to test the validity of this new SSA model and the applicability to construct the optimal portfolio in keyword bidding. Research process is as follows; In order to perform the optimization analysis in constructing the keyword portfolio under the New SSA model, this study proposes the criteria for categorizing the keywords, selects the representing keywords for each category, shows the non-linearity relationship, screens the scenarios for CTR and CPC estimation, selects the best fit model through Goodness-of-Fit (GOF) test, formulates the optimization models, confirms the Spillover effects, and suggests the modified optimization model reflecting Spillover and some strategic recommendations. Tests of Optimization models using these CTR/CPC estimation models are empirically performed with the objective functions of (1) maximizing CTR (CTR optimization model) and of (2) maximizing expected profit reflecting CVR (namely, CVR optimization model). Both of the CTR and CVR optimization test result show that the suggested SSA model confirms the significant improvements and this model is valid in constructing the keyword portfolio using the CTR/CPC estimation models suggested in this study. However, one critical problem is found in the CVR optimization model. Important keywords are excluded from the keyword portfolio due to the myopia of the immediate low profit at present. In order to solve this problem, Markov Chain analysis is carried out and the concept of Core Transit Keyword (CTK) and Expected Opportunity Profit (EOP) are introduced. The Revised CVR Optimization model is proposed and is tested and shows validity in constructing the portfolio. Strategic guidelines and insights are as follows; Brand keywords are usually dominant in almost every aspects of CTR, CVR, the expected profit, etc. Now, it is found that the Generic keywords are the CTK and have the spillover potentials which might increase consumers awareness and lead them to Brand keyword. That's why the Generic keyword should be focused in the keyword bidding. The contribution of the thesis is to propose the novel SSA model based on Rank as decision variable, to propose to manage the keyword portfolio by categories according to the characteristics of keywords, to propose the statistical modelling and managing based on the Rank in constructing the keyword portfolio, and to perform empirical tests and propose a new strategic guidelines to focus on the CTK and to propose the modified CVR optimization objective function reflecting the spillover effect in stead of the previous expected profit models.

Statistical Analysis on the Web Using PHP3 (PHP3를 이용한 웹상에서의 통계분석)

  • Hwang, Jin-Soo;Uhm, Dae-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.501-510
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    • 1999
  • We have seen a rapid development of multimedia intustry as computer evolves and the internet has changed our way of life dramatically in these days. There we several attempts to teach elementary statistics on the web but most of them are based on commercial products. The need for statistical data analysis and decision making based on those analysis is growing. In this article we try to show one way of reaching that goal by using a server side scripting language PHP3 toghether with extra graphical module and statistical distribution module on the web. We showed some elementary exploratory graphical data analysis and statistical inferences. There are plenty of room of improvements to make it a full blown statistical analysis tool on the web in the new future. All the programs and databases used in our article we public programs. The main engine PHP3 is included as an apache web server module so it is very light and fast. It will be much better when the PHP4(ZEND) will be officially out in terms of processing speed.

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Study on the EDA based Statistics Attributes Discovery and Utilization for the Maritime Safety Statistics Items Diversification (해상안전 통계 항목 다양화를 위한 EDA 기반 통계 속성 도출 및 활용에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Seong Kyung;Lee, Young Jai
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.26 no.7
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    • pp.798-809
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    • 2020
  • Evidence-based policymaking and assessments for scientific administration have increased the importance of statistics (data) utilization. Statistics can explain specific phenomena by providing numerical values and are a public resource for national decision making. Due to these inherent attributes, statistics are utilized as baseline and base data for government policy determinations and the analysis of various phenomena. However, compared to the importance, the role of statistics is limited, and statistics are often used as simple abstracts, produced mainly for suppliers, not for consumers' perspectives to create value. This study explores the statistical data and other attributes that can be utilized for policies or research to address the problems mentioned above. The baseline statistical data used in this study is from the Maritime Distress Accident Statistical Yearbook published by the South Korean Coast Guard, and other additional attributes are from text analyses of vessel casualty situation reports from the South Korean Maritime Police. Collecting 56 attributes drawn from the text analysis and executing an EDA resulted in 88 attribute unions: 18 attribute unions had a satisfactory significance probability (p-value < .05) and a strong correlation coefficient above 0.7, and 70 attribute unions had a middle correlation. (over 0.4 and under 0.7). Additionally, to utilize the extra attributes discovered from the EDA politically, a keyword analysis for each detailed strategy of the disaster Preparation basic plan was executed, the utilization availability of the attributes was obtained using a matching process of keywords, and the EDA deducted attributes were examined.

Optimum Allocation Modelling of Rural Facilities by Decision-Making Technique - With Special Reference to Agricultural-cum-Industrial Complex- (의사결정기법을 이용한 농촌지역시설 적정입지선정 모델 - 농공단지를 중심으로 -)

  • Choe, Su-Myeong;Kim, Yeong-Ju;Hwang, Han-Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.98-107
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    • 1998
  • For efficient development of rural facilities, choice of their optimum locations would be an important issue, however, existing research works concentrated much more an allocation policy of urban industrial complex and public facilities than rural ones. In this study, because agricultural-cum-industrial complex has been the most widely developed representative one of rural facilities, it was selected as a case study facility. As a pre-study to system development, existing governmental location-decision system was checked and interviewing survey carried out to find out on-spot problems. And, being based on literature review and survey analysis results, 4-step optimum locational decision model was developed , formulation of locational goal system, ranking tabulation on components, determination of significance values of components, calculation of component scores. Finally, through the case study works on 3 sites, system applicability was checked, Considering together the simplicity problem of existing guidelines and the interviewing survey results favoring the diversified viewpoints, it would be necessary to develop multifaceted support system for locational decision making. 3-tier classification steps from the higher, middle to lower one were used and their underpinning viewpoints were sorted as on regional development, entrepreneurship, spatial rationality, from which a tentative locational goal system was formulated. Through the expert group checking, final locational goal system was determined having 3 of the higher classification items, 7 of the middle ones, 23 of the lower ogles. For ranking tabulation, 3 types of ranking criteria were arranged which were based on statistical analysis using mean and standard deviation(Type I ), its existence or not 1 good or not(Type E ), and the others(Type E ). From the significance evaluation results, regional development and entrepreneurship aspects were valued much higher than spatial rationality aspect. And, in the middle step, items as spread effects of regional economy, accessibility and social potentialities were highly valued while infrastructural development level and natural condition being low. The application results of the system to 3 case study total. However, the detailed ones differed among study the influencing effects on regional economy, and contrast greater the infrastructural development level. Conclusively, final evaluation values well represented the characteristics of each area. If this system be complemented and applied comprehensively by the successive studies, it would be developed to a general model of locational decision supporting system for rural facilities.

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Hybrid Learning Architectures for Advanced Data Mining:An Application to Binary Classification for Fraud Management (개선된 데이터마이닝을 위한 혼합 학습구조의 제시)

  • Kim, Steven H.;Shin, Sung-Woo
    • Journal of Information Technology Application
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    • v.1
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    • pp.173-211
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    • 1999
  • The task of classification permeates all walks of life, from business and economics to science and public policy. In this context, nonlinear techniques from artificial intelligence have often proven to be more effective than the methods of classical statistics. The objective of knowledge discovery and data mining is to support decision making through the effective use of information. The automated approach to knowledge discovery is especially useful when dealing with large data sets or complex relationships. For many applications, automated software may find subtle patterns which escape the notice of manual analysis, or whose complexity exceeds the cognitive capabilities of humans. This paper explores the utility of a collaborative learning approach involving integrated models in the preprocessing and postprocessing stages. For instance, a genetic algorithm effects feature-weight optimization in a preprocessing module. Moreover, an inductive tree, artificial neural network (ANN), and k-nearest neighbor (kNN) techniques serve as postprocessing modules. More specifically, the postprocessors act as second0order classifiers which determine the best first-order classifier on a case-by-case basis. In addition to the second-order models, a voting scheme is investigated as a simple, but efficient, postprocessing model. The first-order models consist of statistical and machine learning models such as logistic regression (logit), multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA), ANN, and kNN. The genetic algorithm, inductive decision tree, and voting scheme act as kernel modules for collaborative learning. These ideas are explored against the background of a practical application relating to financial fraud management which exemplifies a binary classification problem.

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