• Title/Summary/Keyword: Stated Preference(SP)

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Estimating the Impact on Aviation Demand by High Speed Railroad Service in Korea (고속철도 개통으로 인한 항공수요 변화에 대한 추정)

  • Park, Yong-Hwa;Kim, Yeon-Myung;Oh, Sung-Yeol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.47-54
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    • 2004
  • Recently, a large reduction in domestic aviation demand had roughly shown in the range between 34% and 75% in east central and western corridor of Korea. The reasons for the drop in air traffic demand were the provisioning of several new highway serveces and the national economic difficulties. Since April 2004, moreover, the Korea Train Express(KTX) was operated between Seoul and Daegu in the first phrase of 293Km in KTX operational distance and 258Km in air route distance. The operation of KTX significantly impacted air traffic volume, particularly on the overlapped air routes with KTX routes. This study analyzed the effects on air traffic demand in accordance with the opening of KTX by applying the Stated Preference (SP) survey method, the survey conducted prior to 8 months of the KTX initiative. Also, the comparison of the decreased demand forecast by SP analysis and actual revealed traffic volume during two months service after inauguration of KTX was conducted. The Seoul-Daegu route was analysed using the 3 variables considered access and egress time, fare rate, operational frequency. The result obtained from the analysis showed that air users would be preferred only 14%. Comparatively, however, the actual revealed air passengers after the opening KTX were remained 28%, The less "decreased demand" was caused by the instability of the KTX's operation in the initial stage. Therefore, small numbers of passenger were preferable to airservices rather than high speed railroad service.

Evaluating the Policy of Transfer System to Promote a Use of the Busan Subway (지하철 이용 활성화를 위한 환승체계의 정책대안 평가)

  • Jung, Hun-Young;Choi, Chi-Gook
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.2 s.73
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    • pp.27-39
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    • 2004
  • The purpose of this paper presents realistic policy alternative about recent tendency to decrease of subway-users and diminution of use efficiency which are serious problems of Busan Subway. Several policy alternatives have been studied until now, such as subway transfer impedance solution plan, introduction of subway to transfer fare discounting policy, and etc.. But, those policy alternatives are difficult to carried out, because they are less effective and overburden to financial aspect. Therefore, I made use of research on subway utilization to presuppose service improvement, as an alternative, in the transfer fare discounting system between bus and subway which might be powerful influence over subway-users. To verify this proposed study, I took advantage of Stated Preference(SP) where I estimated fare revenue and effects on fluctuation of subway-users with nested logit model based on research results. Suitable alternatives are as follows: First, If municipal government carries out transfer fare discounting policy without shortening in-vehicle time and out-of-vehicle time transfer fare, it is reasonable to discount transfer fare 50% off on the assumption of financial support as much as \6.700 million annually. Secondly, in case of application of multi-factors at a time, transfer fare discounting and in & out vehicle time, it is preferred to have no charge for transfer option with financial support as much as expected income-loss \5,600 million.

Study on Forecasting Urban Rail Demand Reflecting Transfer Fare Value in a Non-integrated Fare System (독립.환승할인요금체계하의 환승요금가치를 고려한 도시철도 수요추정 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-Hun;Son, Ui-Yeong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.155-162
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    • 2009
  • The recent increase of light rail construction by the private sector in Korea has caused a new issue in forecasting rail demand. Integrated fare systems between several rail operators is convenient and brings cost savings to users, and therefore is also very effective in increasing demand. However, it causes some short-term revenue loss to operators so that the private sector often suggests a non-integrated fare system. The current rail demand forecasting model is based upon an integrated fare system. Thus this model cannot be used to forecast the demand with a non-integrated fare system. Some value of transfer fare should be estimated and applied to forecast the demand in a non-integrated fare system. This study conducted a stated preference (SP) survey on urban railway passengers and estimated the value of transfer fare. The estimated value is 2,609 Won/hr, which is about 52% of in-vehicle time. This shows railway users have a tendency to pay more for transfer fares to save time or distance. This value has some limitations since it is derived from the SP survey. If some non-integrated fare system is applied in the future and a RP survey is conducted and compared with these study results, a more clear value of the transfer fare will be derived.

Estimating Values of Statistical Lives using Choice Experiment Method (선택실험법을 이용한 확률적 인간생명가치의 추정)

  • Shin, Young Chul
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.683-699
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    • 2007
  • This study applied the choice experiment (CE) method to measure values of statistical lives from multi-attributed mortality risk reduction choices. The four characteristics of mortality risk (i.e. cause of death, voluntariness of mortality risk, timing of death, magnitude of mortality risk reduction) are utilized to design the alternatives of choice sets. The estimation results for the multinomial logit model show that individuals are willing to pay 27,930 won per year for a change from the status quo to a $\frac{1}{100}$ mortality risk reduction for 10 years, 116,773 won per year for mortality risk reduction associated with adults, 97,682 won per year for voluntary mortality risk reduction, 77,234 won per year for involuntary mortality risk reduction. There were several estimates of VSL related to different attributes of mortality risk. The mean VSLs of infant/child/young adult ranged from 1,165 million won to 1,367 million won. The mean VSLs ranged from 1,631 million won to 1,833 million won for adult, and were between 1,128 million won and 1,330 million won for old person.

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An Estimation of Generalized Cost for Transit Assignment (대중교통 통행배정을 위한 일반화비용 추정)

  • Son, Sang-Hun;Choe, Gi-Ju;Yu, Jeong-Hun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.25 no.2 s.95
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    • pp.121-132
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    • 2007
  • This paper addressed the issue of a generalized cost model for transit assignment. The model composed of walk time, waiting time (including transfer waiting time), line-haul time, transfer walk time, and fare. The weights of each component were supposed to be calculated using the stated preference (SP) data, which were collected prudently in order to reflect reality. The marginal rate of substitution and wage rate were applied to calculate the weights. The results showed that the weight of walking time per in-vehicle travel time (IVTT) was 1.507, the weight of waiting time (per IVTT) was 1.749, that of transfer time (per IVTT) was 1.474, and that of fare (per IVTT) was 1.476 for trips between inner-city areas in Seoul. Weights for each component were identified as 1.871, 1.967, 1.015, and 0.857, respectively, for trips between Seoul and Gyeonggi. Statistical significance existed between two cases and each variable was also statistically significant. Transit assignment using the relative weights estimated in this study was implemented to analyze the travel index in a macroscopic and quantitative basis. The results showed that average total travel times were 30.23 minutes and 63.29 minutes and average generalized costs were 2,510 won and 3,880 won for trips between inner-city areas in Seoul and between Seoul and Gyeonggi, respectively.

A study on Air and High Speed Rail modal According to the Introduction of Low Cost Carrier Air Service (저비용항공 진입에 따른 항공과 고속철도수단 선택에 관한 연구)

  • Lim, Sam-Jin;Lim, Kang-Won;Lee, Young-Ihn;Kim, Kyung-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.51-61
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    • 2008
  • Most of Korea's 15 local airports, with the exception Jeju, Gimpo and Gimhae airports, have been several billion Won in the red each year. It has been reported that one of the causes of the poor financial performance is inaccurate air traffic demand predictions. Under the situation, the entry of low-cost carrier air service using turbo-prop airplanes into the domestic airlines market gets a wide range of support, which is expected to promote the convenience of consumers and help to activate local airports. In this study, the authors (1) suggest a high-speed transport demand model among existing airlines, Korea Train Express (KTX) and low-cost carrier air service; (2) try to make low-cost air carrier demand predictions for a route between Seoul and Daegu through a stated-preference survey; and (3), examine possible effectiveness of selected policy measures by establishing an estimation model. First, fare has a strong influence for mode choice between high-speed transport modes when considering the entry of low-cost carrier air service between Seoul and Daegu. Even low-cost carrier air service fare is set at 38,000 won, which is considerably low compared with that of KTX, in the regions where the total travel time is the same for both low-cost carrier air service and KTX, the probability of selecting low-cost carrier air service is 0.1, which shows little possibility of modal change between high speed transportation means. It is suggested that the fare of low-cost air service between Seoul and Daegu should be within the range of from of 38,000 to 44,000 Won; if it is higher, the demand is likely to be lower than expected.