• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.17 no.12
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• pp.5287-5294
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• 2016

Background: Breast cancer is a worldwide public health concern and is the most prevalent type of cancer in women in the United States. This study concerned the best fit of statistical probability models on the basis of survival times for nine state cancer registries: California, Connecticut, Georgia, Hawaii, Iowa, Michigan, New Mexico, Utah, and Washington. Materials and Methods: A probability random sampling method was applied to select and extract records of 2,000 breast cancer patients from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database for each of the nine state cancer registries used in this study. EasyFit software was utilized to identify the best probability models by using goodness of fit tests, and to estimate parameters for various statistical probability distributions that fit survival data. Results: Statistical analysis for the summary of statistics is reported for each of the states for the years 1973 to 2012. Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling, and Chi-squared goodness of fit test values were used for survival data, the highest values of goodness of fit statistics being considered indicative of the best fit survival model for each state. Conclusions: It was found that California, Connecticut, Georgia, Iowa, New Mexico, and Washington followed the Burr probability distribution, while the Dagum probability distribution gave the best fit for Michigan and Utah, and Hawaii followed the Gamma probability distribution. These findings highlight differences between states through selected sociodemographic variables and also demonstrate probability modeling differences in breast cancer survival times. The results of this study can be used to guide healthcare providers and researchers for further investigations into social and environmental factors in order to reduce the occurrence of and mortality due to breast cancer.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.61 no.11
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• pp.1758-1764
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• 2012

A large number of wire rope has been used in various inderstiries as Cranes and Elevators from expanding the scale of the industrial market. But now, the management of wire rope is used as manually operated by rope replacement from over time or after the accident.It is caused to major accidents as well as economic losses and personal injury. Therefore its time to need periodic fault diagnosis of wire rope or supply of real-time monitoring system. Currently, there are several methods has been reported for fault diagnosis method of the wire rope, to find out the feature point from extracting method is becoming more common compared to time wave and model-based system. This method has implemented a deterministic modeling like the observer and neural network through considering the state of the system as a deterministic signal. However, the out-put of real system has probability characteristics, and if it is used as a current method on this system, the performance will be decreased at the real time. And if the random noise is occurred from unstable measure/experiment environment in wire rope system, diagnostic criterion becomes unclear and accuracy of diagnosis becomes blurred. Thus, more sophisticated techniques are required rather than deterministic fault diagnosis algorithm. In this paper, we developed the fault diagnosis of the wire rope using probability density estimation techniques algorithm. At first, The steady-state wire rope fault signal detection is defined as the probability model through probability distribution estimate. Wire rope defects signal is detected by a hall sensor in real-time, it is estimated by proposed probability estimation algorithm. we judge whether wire rope has defection or not using the error value from comparing two probability distribution.

• ETRI Journal
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.102-105
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• 2012

To serve the growing demand of the bidirectional information exchange, we propose a single relay selection (RS) scheme for physical-layer network coding (PNC) in a bidirectional cooperative network consisting of two sources and multiple relays. This RS scheme selects a single best relay by maximizing the bottleneck of the capacity region of both information flows in the bidirectional network. We show that the proposed RS rule minimizes the outage probability and that it can be used as a performance benchmark for any RS rules with PNC. We derive a closed-form exact expression of the outage probability for the proposed RS rule and show that it achieves full diversity gain. Finally, numerical results demonstrate the validity of our analysis.

• International Journal of Precision Engineering and Manufacturing
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• v.4 no.6
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• pp.12-19
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• 2003

This paper presents the effect of boundary conditions in various failure pressure models published for the estimation of failure pressure. Furthermore, this approach is extended to the failure prediction with the aid of a failure probability model. The first order Taylor series expansion of the limit state function is used in order to estimate the probability of failure associated with each corrosion defect in buried pipelines for long exposure period with unit of years. A failure probability model based on the von-Mises failure criterion is adapted. The log-normal and standard normal probability functions for varying random variables are adapted. The effects of random variables such as defect depth, pipe diameter, defect length, fluid pressure, corrosion rate, material yield stress, material ultimate tensile strength and pipe thickness on the failure probability of the buried pipelines are systematically investigated for the corrosion pipeline by using an adapted failure probability model and varying failure pressure model.

• Honam Mathematical Journal
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.141-147
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• 1995

We find a method finding the steady-state probabilities of M/M/3/3 retrial queueing system.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.287-301
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• 2012

It is well known that overloaded vehicles may cause severe damages to bridges, and how to estimate and evaluate the status of the overloaded vehicles passing through bridges become a challenging problem. Therefore, based on the monitored strain data from a structural health monitoring system (SHM) installed on a bridge, a method is recommended to identify and analyze the probability of overloaded vehicles. Overloaded vehicle loads can cause abnormity in the monitored strains, though the abnormal strains may be small in a concrete continuous rigid frame bridge. Firstly, the abnormal strains are identified from the abundant strains in time sequence by taking the advantage of wavelet transform in abnormal signal identification; secondly, the abnormal strains induced by heavy vehicles are picked up by the comparison between the identified abnormal strains and the strain threshold gotten by finite element analysis of the normal heavy vehicle; finally, according to the determined abnormal strains induced by overloaded vehicles, the statistics of the overloaded vehicles passing through the bridge are summarized and the whole probability of the overloaded vehicles is analyzed. The research shows the feasibility of using the monitored strains from a long-term SHM to identify the information of overloaded vehicles passing through a bridge, which can help the traffic department to master the heavy truck information and do the damage analysis of bridges further.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.49 no.1
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• pp.111-128
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• 2014

The stochastic response surface method (SRSM) and the response surface method (RSM) are often used for structural reliability analysis, especially for reliability problems with implicit performance functions. This paper aims to compare these two methods in terms of fitting the performance function, accuracy and efficiency in estimating probability of failure as well as statistical moments of system output response. The computational procedures of two response surface methods are briefly introduced first. Then their capabilities are demonstrated and compared in detail through two examples. The results indicate that the probability of failure mainly reflects the accuracy of the response surface function (RSF) fitting the performance function in the vicinity of the design point, while the statistical moments of system output response reflect the accuracy of the RSF fitting the performance function in the entire space. In addition, the performance function can be well fitted by the SRSM with an optimal order polynomial chaos expansion both in the entire physical and in the independent standard normal spaces. However, it can be only well fitted by the RSM in the vicinity of the design point. For reliability problems involving random variables with approximate normal distributions, such as normal, lognormal, and Gumbel Max distributions, both the probability of failure and statistical moments of system output response can be accurately estimated by the SRSM, whereas the RSM can only produce the probability of failure with a reasonable accuracy.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.6-12
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• 2011

The failure probabilities of pipes in nuclear power plants due to stress corrosion are obtained using the P-PIE program, which is developed for evaluating failure probability of pipes based on the existing PRAISE program. Leak, big leak and LOCA(loss of coolant accident) probabilities are calculated as a function of operating time for several pipes in a domestic nuclear plant. The sensitivity analysis is also performed to find out the important parameters for the failure of pipes due to stress corrosion. The results show that the steady state oxygen concentration and steady state temperature are important parameters and failure probability is very low when the oxygen concentration is maintained according to the regulation.

• Journal of Korea Game Society
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.127-136
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• 2014

NPC in game is an important factor to increase the fun of the game by cooperating with player or confrontation with player. NPC's behavior patterns in the previous games are limited. Also, there is not much difference in NPC's ability among the existing games because it's designed to FSM. Therefore, players who have matched with NPCs which have the characteristics may have difficulty to play. This paper is for improving the problem and production and evaluation of the game NPC behavior model based on wolves hunting model in real life. To achieve it, first, the research surveys and studies behavior states for wolves to capture prey in the real world. Secondly, it is implemented using the Unity3D engine. Third, this paper compares the implemented state transition probability to state transition probability in real world, state transition probability in general game. The comparison shows that the number of state transitions of NPCs increases, proportions of implemented NPC behavior patterns converges to probabilities of state transition in real-world. This means that the aggressive behavior pattern of NPC implemented is similar to the wolf hunting behavior pattern of the real world, and it can thereby provide more player experience.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.173-180
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• 2004

This paper presents the effect of varying boundary conditions such as ground subsidence, internal pressure and temperature variation for buried pipelines on failure prediction by using a failure probability model. The first order Taylor series expansion of the limit state function incorporating with von-Mises failure criteria is used in order to estimate the probability of failure mainly associated with three cases of ground subsidence. Using stresses on the buried pipelines, we estimate the probability of pipelines with von-Mises failure criterion. The effects of varying random variables such as pipe diameter, internal pressure, temperature, settlement width, load for unit length of pipelines, material yield stress and pipe thickness on the failure probability of the buried pipelines are systematically studied by using a failure probability model for the pipeline crossing ground subsidence regions which have different soil properties.