• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.141-141
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• 2022

Drought is a global phenomenon that affects almost all landscapes and causes major damages. Due to non-linear nature of contributing factors, drought occurrence and its severity is characterized as stochastic in nature. Early warning of impending drought can aid in the development of drought mitigation strategies and measures. Thus, drought forecasting is crucial in the planning and management of water resource systems. The primary objective of this study is to make improvement is existing drought forecasting techniques. Therefore, we proposed an improved version of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model (MD-SARIMA) for reliable drought forecasting with three years lead time. In this study, we selected four watersheds of Han River basin in South Korea to validate the performance of MD-SARIMA model. The meteorological data from 8 rain gauge stations were collected for the period 1973-2016 and converted into watershed scale using Thiessen's polygon method. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was employed to represent the meteorological drought at seasonal (3-month) time scale. The performance of MD-SARIMA model was compared with existing models such as Seasonal Naive Bayes (SNB) model, Exponential Smoothing (ES) model, Trigonometric seasonality, Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components (TBATS) model, and SARIMA model. The results showed that all the models were able to forecast drought, but the performance of MD-SARIMA was robust then other statistical models with Wilmott Index (WI) = 0.86, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) = 0.66, and Root mean square error (RMSE) = 0.80 for 36 months lead time forecast. The outcomes of this study indicated that the MD-SARIMA model can be utilized for drought forecasting.

• Journal of the Korean Society for information Management
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.99-123
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• 2004

Traditionally. theses and dissertations have been extremely underutilized information sources due to their lack of physical availability. The development of electronic theses and dissertations system will provide the opportunity for theses and dissertations to be recognized as a basic channel for the dissemination of research findings and an essential resource in the discovery process. In digital environment. many universities and libraries throughout the world are now making digitized versions of traditional(print) dissertations available online. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the current theses and dissertations management system based on web questionaries and survey of home pages. and to suggest a standardized theses and dissertation management model in Korea.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.717-726
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• 2011

The present study was carried out to summarize the effect of green tea in the diabetic rats by meta-analysis related studies. The association measure to test effect of green tea was Hedges' standardized mean difference. In this particular fixed effect model, body weight was significantly increased. Also, blood glucose, triglycerides were significantly decreased. In this case of heterogeneous variable, random effect model was applied. In this model, body weight was significantly increased. Also, blood glucose was significantly decreased in green tea treated group. According to the Meta-regression analysis, duration of injection was not significant for variables.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2019.05a
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• pp.151-151
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• 2019

Because drought is a complex and stochastic phenomenon in nature, statistical approaches for drought assessment receive great attention for water resource planning and management. Generally drought characteristics such as severity, duration and intensity are modelled separately. This study aims to develop a relationship between drought characteristics using a bivariate copula model. To achieve the objective, we calculated the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) using rainfall data at 6 rain gauge stations for the period of 1961-1999 in Jehlum River Basin, Pakistan, and investigated the drought characteristics. Since there is a significant correlation between drought severity and duration, they are usually modeled using different marginal distributions and joint distribution function. Using exponential distribution for drought severity and log-logistic distribution for drought duration, the Galambos copula was recognized as best copula to model joint distribution of drought severity and duration based on the KS-statistic. Various return periods of drought were calculated to identify time interval of repeated drought events. The result of this study can provide useful information for effective water resource management and shows superiority against univariate drought analysis.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.225-225
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• 2015

Drought events usually evolve slowly in time and their impacts generally span a long period of time. This indicates that the sequence of drought is not completely random. The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a probabilistic model used to represent dependences between invisible hidden states which finally result in observations. Drought characteristics are dependent on the underlying generating mechanism, which can be well modelled by the HMM. This study employed a HMM with Gaussian emissions to fit the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) series and make multi-step prediction to check the drought characteristics in the future. To estimate the parameters of the HMM, we employed a Bayesian model computed via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Since the true number of hidden states is unknown, we fit the model with varying number of hidden states and used reversible jump to allow for transdimensional moves between models with different numbers of states. We applied the HMM to several stations SPI data in South Korea. The monthly SPI data from January 1973 to December 2012 was divided into two parts, the first 30-year SPI data (January 1973 to December 2002) was used for model calibration and the last 10-year SPI data (January 2003 to December 2012) for model validation. All the SPI data was preprocessed through the wavelet denoising and applied as the visible output in the HMM. Different lead time (T= 1, 3, 6, 12 months) forecasting performances were compared with conventional forecasting techniques (e.g., ANN and ARMA). Based on statistical evaluation performance, the HMM exhibited significant preferable results compared to conventional models with much larger forecasting skill score (about 0.3-0.6) and lower Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values (about 0.5-0.9).

• Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea CI
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• v.48 no.3
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• pp.36-45
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• 2011

An agent in collaborative e-learning has independent function for learners in any circumstance, status and task by the reasonable and general means for social learning. In order to perform it well, communication among agents requires standardized and regular information technology method. This study suggests data model as a communication tool for various agents. Therefore this study shows various agents types for collaborative learning, designation of rule for data model that enable to communicate among agents and data element of agent communication data model. A multi-agent e-learning system using like this standardized data model should able to exchange the message that is needed for communication among agents who can take charge of their independent tasks. This study should contribute to perform collaborative e-learning successfully by the application of communication data model among agents for social learning.

• Korean Educational Research Journal
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.81-108
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• 2017

The purpose of this study is to develop a standardized learning model for a free-learning semester, and to provide a practical framework of its curriculum. This paper is a state-funded study to design an instructional model for the free-learning semester. Instructional models that have been implemented in the practical school were constructed through collecting opinions from school teachers. The instructional model for a free-learning semester in this current study is a modification of the existing learning model into the Learning (Meaningful reception learning)-Practice-Production stage. These are designed to reflect the UNESCO proposals that emphasize knowledge, skills, and character, respectively. It is not easy to construct the instructional model for the free-learning semester activities. A three-step strategy that encompasses the UNESCO proposals will be a useful framework for teachers to systematically design and implement free-learning semester teaching.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.27 no.5
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• pp.1169-1182
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• 2016

Cancer is a typical cause of death in Korea that becomes a major issue in health care. According to Cause of Death Statistics (2014) by National Statistical Office, SMRs (standardized mortality rates) in Busan were counted as the highest among all cities. In this paper, we used data of Busan Regional Cancer Center to estimate the extent of the cancer incidence rate and cancer mortality rate. The data are considered in small areas of administrative units such as Gu/Dong from years 2003 to 2009. All cancer including four major cancers (stomach cancer, colorectal cancer, lung cancer, liver cancer) have been analyzed. We carried out model selection and parameter estimation using spatial multi-level model incorporating a spatial correlation. For the spatial effects, CAR (conditional autoregressive model) has been assumed.

• Imaging Science in Dentistry
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.199-204
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• 2001

Purpose : To assess the relationship between soft tissue asymmetry and bone tissue asymmetry using the standardized photographs and the posteroanterior (PA) cephalometric radiographs in mandibular asymmetric patients. And to clarify that the lack of morphologic balance among different skeletal components can often be masked by compensatory soft tissue contributions. Methods: Experimental group consisted of 58 patients whose chief complaints were facial asymmetry, they were taken with standardized facial photographs and PA cephalometric radiographs. Control group consisted of 30 persons in the normal occlusion. The reproducibility of the facial photograph was confirmed by model test. The differences of fractional vertical heightand horizontal width from standardized facial photographs and PA cephalometric radiographs were compared and analyzed. Results: The difference of fractional vertical bone height was 0.63 and fractional vertical soft height was 0.58 in control group, 3.10 and 2.01 in asymmetric group, respectively. The difference of fractional horizontal bone width was 0.52 and fractional horizontal soft width was 0.70 in control group, 2.51 and 1.70 in asymmetric group, respectively. Both soft and bone tissue showed significant difference between control and asymmetric group (p<0.05). The difference of bone tissue was greater than that of soft tissue (p<0.05) in the experimental group but, not in control group. Conclusions: Soft tissue components may compensate for underlying skeletal imbalances.

• Health Policy and Management
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.114-120
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• 2017

The hospital standardized mortality ratio (HSMR) is a widely used generic measure for assessing quality of hospital care in many countries. However, the validity of HSMR as a quality indicator is still controversial. We critically reviewed characteristics of HSMR and suggested how to use HSMR as a quality indicator in the Korean setting. The association between HSMR and other quality measures of hospital care is inconclusive. In addition current HSMR model has shortcomings in risk adjustment because of the lack of clinical data, accuracy of disease coding, coding variation among hospitals, end-of-life care issues, and so on. Therefore, HSMR should be used as an indicator for improvement, not for judgement such as public reporting and pay-for-performance. More efforts will be needed to tackle practical and methodological weaknesses of HSMR in the Korean setting.