• Title/Summary/Keyword: Standard error of prediction

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Development of Tree Stem Weight Equations for Larix kaempferi in Central Region of South Korea (중부지역 일본잎갈나무의 수간중량 추정식 개발)

  • Ko, Chi-Ung;Son, Yeong-Mo;Kang, Jin-Taek;Kim, Dong-Geun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.107 no.2
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    • pp.184-192
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    • 2018
  • In this study was implemented to develop tree stem weight prediction equation of Larix kaempferi in central region by selecting a standard site, taking into account of diameter and position of the local trees. Fifty five sample trees were selected in total. By utilizing actual data of the sample trees, 11 models were compared and analyzed in order to estimate four different kinds of weights which include fresh weight, ovendry outside bark weight, ovendry inside bark weight and merchantable weight. As to estimate its weight, the study has classified its model according to three parameters: DBH, DBH and height, and volume. The optimal model was chosen by comparing the performance of model using the fit index and standard error of estimate and residual distribution. As a result, the formula utilizing DBH (Variable 1) is $W=a+bD+cD^2$ (3) and its fit index was 90~92%. The formula for DBH and height (Variable 2) is $W=aD^bH^C$ (8) and its fit index was 97~98%. In summation, Variable 2 model showed higher fitness than Variable 1 model. Moreover, fit index of formula for total volume and merchantable volume (W=aV) showed high rate of 98~99%, as well as resulting 7.7-17.5 with SEE and 8.0-10.0 with CV(%) which lead to predominately high fitness in conclusion. This study is expected to provide information on weights for single trees and furthermore, to be used as a basic study for weight of stand unit and biomass estimation equations.

Analysis on Correlation between AE Parameters and Stress Intensity Factor using Principal Component Regression and Artificial Neural Network (주성분 회귀분석 및 인공신경망을 이용한 AE변수와 응력확대계수와의 상관관계 해석)

  • Kim, Ki-Bok;Yoon, Dong-Jin;Jeong, Jung-Chae;Park, Phi-Iip;Lee, Seung-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.80-90
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    • 2001
  • The aim of this study is to develop the methodology which enables to identify the mechanical properties of element such as stress intensity factor by using the AE parameters. Considering the multivariate and nonlinear properties of AE parameters such as ringdown count, rise time, energy, event duration and peak amplitude from fatigue cracks of machine element the principal component regression(PCR) and artificial neural network(ANN) models for the estimation of stress intensity factor were developed and validated. The AE parameters were found to be very significant to estimate the stress intensity factor. Since the statistical values including correlation coefficients, standard mr of calibration, standard error of prediction and bias were stable, the PCR and ANN models for stress intensity factor were very robust. The performance of ANN model for unknown data of stress intensity factor was better than that of PCR model.

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Deep Learning based Estimation of Depth to Bearing Layer from In-situ Data (딥러닝 기반 국내 지반의 지지층 깊이 예측)

  • Jang, Young-Eun;Jung, Jaeho;Han, Jin-Tae;Yu, Yonggyun
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.35-42
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    • 2022
  • The N-value from the Standard Penetration Test (SPT), which is one of the representative in-situ test, is an important index that provides basic geological information and the depth of the bearing layer for the design of geotechnical structures. In the aspect of time and cost-effectiveness, there is a need to carry out a representative sampling test. However, the various variability and uncertainty are existing in the soil layer, so it is difficult to grasp the characteristics of the entire field from the limited test results. Thus the spatial interpolation techniques such as Kriging and IDW (inverse distance weighted) have been used for predicting unknown point from existing data. Recently, in order to increase the accuracy of interpolation results, studies that combine the geotechnics and deep learning method have been conducted. In this study, based on the SPT results of about 22,000 holes of ground survey, a comparative study was conducted to predict the depth of the bearing layer using deep learning methods and IDW. The average error among the prediction results of the bearing layer of each analysis model was 3.01 m for IDW, 3.22 m and 2.46 m for fully connected network and PointNet, respectively. The standard deviation was 3.99 for IDW, 3.95 and 3.54 for fully connected network and PointNet. As a result, the point net deep learing algorithm showed improved results compared to IDW and other deep learning method.

Determination of Color Value (L, a, b) in Green Tea Using Near-Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy (근적외 분광분석법을 이용한 녹차의 색도 분석)

  • Lee, Min-Seuk;Choung, Myoung-Gun
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.53 no.spc
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    • pp.108-114
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    • 2008
  • Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) is a rapid and accurate analytical method for determining the composition of agricultural products and feeds. The applicability of near infrared reflectance spectroscopic method was tested to determine the color value (L, a, b) of green tea. A total of 162 green tea calibration samples and 82 validation samples were used for NIRS equation development and validation, respectively. In the developed NIRS equation for analysis of the color value (L, a, b), the most accurate equation for L value was obtained at 2, 8, 6, 1 (2nd derivative, 8 nm gap, 6 points smoothing, and 1pointsecond smoothing), and for a, and b value were obtained at 1, 4, 4, 1 (1st derivative, 4 nm gap, 4points smoothing, and 1 point second smoothing) math treatment condition with SNVD (Standard Normal Variate and Detrend) scatter correction method and entire spectrum ($400{\sim}2,500\;nm$) by using MPLS (Modified Partial Least Squares) regression. Validation results of these NIRS equations showed very low bias (L: 0.005%, a: 0.003%, b: -0.013%) and standard error of prediction (SEP, L: 0.361%, a: 0.141%, b: 0.306%) as well as high coefficient of determination ($R^2$, L: 0.905, a: 0.986, b: 0.931). Therefore, these NIRS equations can be applicable and reliable for determination of color value (L, a, b) of green tea, and NIRS method could be used as a mass screening technique for breeding programs and quality control in the green tea industry.

THE BEST TEETH COMBINATION TO PREDICT MESIODISTAL DIAMETERS OF THE UNERUPTED CANINE AND PREMOLARS OF KOREANS (한국인에서 미맹출 견치와 소구치의 근원심 폭경 예측을 위한 최적의 치아조합)

  • Kim, So-Hwa;Kim, Seong-Oh;Choi, Hyung-Jun;Choi, Byung-Jai;Lee, Jae-Ho
    • Journal of the korean academy of Pediatric Dentistry
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.430-437
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    • 2007
  • The probability table of Moyers and prediction equation of Tanaka and Johnston that have been the most frequently used, cannot produce accurate prediction when used in Korean because they are based on the Caucasian popularity of the Northern European race. The method of Moyers or Tanaka and Johnston predicts sizes of the unerupted canine and premolars on the basis of the sizes of mandibular incisors. However, some of the recent papers raise a question as to whether the mandibular incisors are the best combination to predict the sizes of the unerupted canine and premolars. The purpose of this study is to determine which sum or combination of sums of permanent tooth widths present the best prediction for the unerupted canine and premolars in a Korean sample, to calculate a specific linear regression equation for this population, and to evaluate the clinical significance. A new linear regression equation was calculated based on the data of 178 Korean young adults(70 women, 108 men, mean age 21.63 years) with complete permanent dentitions. Fifty three more children(28 girls, 25 boys, mean age 14.22 years) were used as a validation sample for the application of the multiple linear regression equation. The conclusions were as follows: 1. The combination of the sums of permanent upper central incisors, lower lateral incisors and upper first molars was the best predictor for the unerupted canine and premolars in this sample($r=0.65{\sim}0.80$). 2. The multiple linear regression equation was calculated including sex and arch as additional predictor variables. male, upper: $Y\;=\;0.332{\times}X_0\;+\;6.195$ male, lower: $Y\;=\;0.332{\times}X_0\;+\;5.269$ female, upper: $Y\;=\;0.332{\times}X_0\;+\;5.929$ female, lower: $Y\;=\;0.332{\times}X_0\;+\;5.003$. The determination coefficient of the equation was 64% and a standard error of the estimate was 0.71mm. 3. In about 97% of the validation sample, the estimation of the tooth width sums of unerupted canine and premolars using the new multiple linear regression equation was smaller than 1mm compaired with the actual values.

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Effect of Sample Preparation on Predicting Chemical Composition and Fermentation Parameters in Italian ryegrass Silages by Near Infrared Spectroscopy (시료 전처리 방법이 근적외선분광법을 이용한 이탈리안 라이그라스 사일리지의 화학적 조성분 및 발효품질 평가에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Hyung Soo;Lee, Sang Hoon;Choi, Ki Choon;Lim, Young Chul;Kim, Jong Gun;Seo, Sung;Jo, Kyu Chea
    • Journal of Animal Environmental Science
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.257-266
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    • 2012
  • Near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) has become increasingly used as a rapid, accurate method of evaluating some chemical constituents in cereal and dired animal forages. Analysis of forage quality by NIRS usually involves dry grinding samples. Costs might be reduced if samples could be analyzed without drying or grinding. The objective of this study was to investigate effect of sample preparations on prediction ability of chemical composition and fermentation parameter for Italian ryegrass silages by NIRS. A population of 147 Italian ryegrass silages representing a wide range in chemical parameters were used in this investigation. Samples were scanned at 1nm intervals over the wavelength range 680-2500 nm and the optical data recorded as log 1/Reflectance (log 1/R) and scanned in oven-dried grinding and fresh ungrinding condition. The spectral data were regressed against a range of chemical parameters using partial least squares (PLS) multivariate analysis in conjunction with four spectral math treatments to reduced the effect of extraneous noise. The optimum calibrations were selected on the basis of minimizing the standard error of cross validation (SECV) and maximizing the correlation coefficient of cross validation (${R^2}_{CV}$). The results of this study show that NIRS predicted the chemical parameters with high degree of accuracy in oven-dried grinding treatment except for moisture contents. Prediction accuracy of the moisture contents was better for fresh ungrinding treatment (SECV 1.37%, $R^2$ 0.96) than for oven-dried grinding treatments (SECV 4.31%, $R^2$ 0.68). Although the statistical indexes for accuracy of the prediction were the lower in fresh ungrinding treatment, fresh treatment may be acceptable when processing is costly or when some changes in component due to the processing are expected. Results of this experiment showed the possibility of NIRS method to predict the chemical composition and fermentation parameter of Italian ryegrass silages as routine analysis method in feeding value evaluation and for farmer advice.

DISEASE DIAGNOSED AND DESCRIBED BY NIRS

  • Tsenkova, Roumiana N.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Near Infrared Spectroscopy Conference
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    • 2001.06a
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    • pp.1031-1031
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    • 2001
  • The mammary gland is made up of remarkably sensitive tissue, which has the capability of producing a large volume of secretion, milk, under normal or healthy conditions. When bacteria enter the gland and establish an infection (mastitis), inflammation is initiated accompanied by an influx of white cells from the blood stream, by altered secretory function, and changes in the volume and composition of secretion. Cell numbers in milk are closely associated with inflammation and udder health. These somatic cell counts (SCC) are accepted as the international standard measurement of milk quality in dairy and for mastitis diagnosis. NIR Spectra of unhomogenized composite milk samples from 14 cows (healthy and mastitic), 7days after parturition and during the next 30 days of lactation were measured. Different multivariate analysis techniques were used to diagnose the disease at very early stage and determine how the spectral properties of milk vary with its composition and animal health. PLS model for prediction of somatic cell count (SCC) based on NIR milk spectra was made. The best accuracy of determination for the 1100-2500nm range was found using smoothed absorbance data and 10 PLS factors. The standard error of prediction for independent validation set of samples was 0.382, correlation coefficient 0.854 and the variation coefficient 7.63%. It has been found that SCC determination by NIR milk spectra was indirect and based on the related changes in milk composition. From the spectral changes, we learned that when mastitis occurred, the most significant factors that simultaneously influenced milk spectra were alteration of milk proteins and changes in ionic concentration of milk. It was consistent with the results we obtained further when applied 2DCOS. Two-dimensional correlation analysis of NIR milk spectra was done to assess the changes in milk composition, which occur when somatic cell count (SCC) levels vary. The synchronous correlation map revealed that when SCC increases, protein levels increase while water and lactose levels decrease. Results from the analysis of the asynchronous plot indicated that changes in water and fat absorptions occur before other milk components. In addition, the technique was used to assess the changes in milk during a period when SCC levels do not vary appreciably. Results indicated that milk components are in equilibrium and no appreciable change in a given component was seen with respect to another. This was found in both healthy and mastitic animals. However, milk components were found to vary with SCC content regardless of the range considered. This important finding demonstrates that 2-D correlation analysis may be used to track even subtle changes in milk composition in individual cows. To find out the right threshold for SCC when used for mastitis diagnosis at cow level, classification of milk samples was performed using soft independent modeling of class analogy (SIMCA) and different spectral data pretreatment. Two levels of SCC - 200 000 cells/$m\ell$ and 300 000 cells/$m\ell$, respectively, were set up and compared as thresholds to discriminate between healthy and mastitic cows. The best detection accuracy was found with 200 000 cells/$m\ell$ as threshold for mastitis and smoothed absorbance data: - 98% of the milk samples in the calibration set and 87% of the samples in the independent test set were correctly classified. When the spectral information was studied it was found that the successful mastitis diagnosis was based on reviling the spectral changes related to the corresponding changes in milk composition. NIRS combined with different ways of spectral data ruining can provide faster and nondestructive alternative to current methods for mastitis diagnosis and a new inside into disease understanding at molecular level.

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Respiratory signal analysis of liver cancer patients with respiratory-gated radiation therapy (간암 호흡동조 방사선치료 환자의 호흡신호분석)

  • Kang, dong im;Jung, sang hoon;Kim, chul jong;Park, hee chul;Choi, byung ki
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.23-30
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    • 2015
  • Purpose : External markers respiratory movement measuring device (RPM; Real-time Position Management, Varian Medical System, USA) Liver Cancer Radiation Therapy Respiratory gated with respiratory signal with irradiation time and the actual research by analyzing the respiratory phase with the breathing motion measurement device respiratory tuning evaluate the accuracy of radiation therapy Materials and Methods : May-September 2014 Novalis Tx. (Varian Medical System, USA) and liver cancer radiotherapy using respiratory gated RPM (Duty Cycle 20%, Gating window 40% ~ 60%) of 16 patients who underwent total when recording the analyzed respiratory movement. After the breathing motion of the external markers recorded on the RPM was reconstructed by breathing through the acts phase analysis, for Beam-on Time and Duty Cycle recorded by using the reconstructed phase breathing breathing with RPM gated the prediction accuracy of the radiation treatment analysis and analyzed the correlation between prediction accuracy and Duty Cycle in accordance with the reproducibility of the respiratory movement. Results : Treatment of 16 patients with respiratory cycle during the actual treatment plan was analyzed with an average difference -0.03 seconds (range -0.50 seconds to 0.09 seconds) could not be confirmed statistically significant difference between the two breathing (p = 0.472). The average respiratory period when treatment is 4.02 sec (${\pm}0.71sec$), the average value of the respiratory cycle of the treatment was characterized by a standard deviation 7.43% (range 2.57 to 19.20%). Duty Cycle is that the actual average 16.05% (range 13.78 to 17.41%), average 56.05 got through the acts of the show and then analyzed% (range 39.23 to 75.10%) is planned in respiratory research phase (40% to 60%) in was confirmed. The investigation on the correlation between the ratio Duty Cycle and planned respiratory phase and the standard deviation of the respiratory cycle was analyzed in each -0.156 (p = 0.282) and -0.385 (p = 0.070). Conclusion : This study is to analyze the acts after the breathing motion of the external markers recorded during the actual treatment was confirmed in a reproducible ratios of actual treatment of breathing motion during treatment, and Duty Cycle, planned respiratory gated window. Minimizing an error of the treatment plan using 4DCT and enhance the respiratory training and respiratory signal monitoring for effective treatment it is determined to be necessary.

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Improved AR-FGS Coding Scheme for Scalable Video Coding (확장형 비디오 부호화(SVC)의 AR-FGS 기법에 대한 부호화 성능 개선 기법)

  • Seo, Kwang-Deok;Jung, Soon-Heung;Kim, Jin-Soo;Kim, Jae-Gon
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.31 no.12C
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    • pp.1173-1183
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    • 2006
  • In this paper, we propose an efficient method for improving visual quality of AR-FGS (Adaptive Reference FGS) which is adopted as a key scheme for SVC (Scalable Video Coding) or H.264 scalable extension. The standard FGS (Fine Granularity Scalability) adopts AR-FGS that introduces temporal prediction into FGS layer by using a high quality reference signal which is constructed by the weighted average between the base layer reconstructed imageand enhancement reference to improve the coding efficiency in the FGS layer. However, when the enhancement stream is truncated at certain bitstream position in transmission, the rest of the data of the FGS layer will not be available at the FGS decoder. Thus the most noticeable problem of using the enhancement layer in prediction is the degraded visual quality caused by drifting because of the mismatch between the reference frame used by the FGS encoder and that by the decoder. To solve this problem, we exploit the principle of cyclical block coding that is used to encode quantized transform coefficients in a cyclical manner in the FGS layer. Encoding block coefficients in a cyclical manner places 'higher-value' bits earlier in the bitstream. The quantized transform coefficients included in the ealry coding cycle of cyclical block coding have higher probability to be correctly received and decoded than the others included in the later cycle of the cyclical block coding. Therefore, we can minimize visual quality degradation caused by bitstream truncation by adjusting weighting factor to control the contribution of the bitstream produced in each coding cycle of cyclical block coding when constructing the enhancement layer reference frame. It is shown by simulations that the improved AR-FGS scheme outperforms the standard AR-FGS by about 1 dB in maximum in the reconstructed visual quality.

Evaluating the Predictability of Heat and Cold Damages of Soybean in South Korea using PNU CGCM -WRF Chain (PNU CGCM-WRF Chain을 이용한 우리나라 콩의 고온해 및 저온해에 대한 예측성 검증)

  • Myeong-Ju, Choi;Joong-Bae, Ahn;Young-Hyun, Kim;Min-Kyung, Jung;Kyo-Moon, Shim;Jina, Hur;Sera, Jo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.218-233
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    • 2022
  • The long-term (1986~2020) predictability of the number of days of heat and cold damages for each growth stage of soybean is evaluated using the daily maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin) data produced by Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model (PNU CGCM)-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). The Predictability evaluation methods for the number of days of damages are Normalized Standard Deviations (NSD), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Hit Rate (HR), and Heidke Skill Score (HSS). First, we verified the simulation performance of the Tmax and Tmin, which are the variables that define the heat and cold damages of soybean. As a result, although there are some differences depending on the month starting with initial conditions from January (01RUN) to May (05RUN), the result after a systematic bias correction by the Variance Scaling method is similar to the observation compared to the bias-uncorrected one. The simulation performance for correction Tmax and Tmin from March to October is overall high in the results (ENS) averaged by applying the Simple Composite Method (SCM) from 01RUN to 05RUN. In addition, the model well simulates the regional patterns and characteristics of the number of days of heat and cold damages by according to the growth stages of soybean, compared with observations. In ENS, HR and HSS for heat damage (cold damage) of soybean have ranged from 0.45~0.75, 0.02~0.10 (0.49~0.76, -0.04~0.11) during each growth stage. In conclusion, 01RUN~05RUN and ENS of PNU CGCM-WRF Chain have the reasonable performance to predict heat and cold damages for each growth stage of soybean in South Korea.