• Title/Summary/Keyword: Spatial error model

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Significance Analysis of Facility Fires Though Spatial Econometrics Assessment (공간계량분석 방법에 따른 시설물 화재 발생 유의성 분석)

  • Seo, Min Song;Yoo, Hwan Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.281-293
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    • 2020
  • Recently, large and small fires have been happening more often in Korea. Fire is one of the most frequent disasters along with traffic accidents in korean cities, and this frequency is closely related to the land use and the type of facilities. Therefore, in this study, the significance of fires was analyzed by considering land use, facility types, human and social factors and using 10 years of fire data in Jinju city. Based on this, OLS (Ordinary Least Square) regression analysis, SLM (Spatial Lag Model) and SEM (Spatial Error Model) using space weights, were compared and analyzed considering the location of the fire and each factor, then a statistical model with high suitability was presented. As a result, LISA analysis of spatial distribution patterns of fires in Jinju city was conducted, and it was proved that the frequency of fires was high in the order as follow, central commercial area, industrial area and residential area. Multiple regression analysis was performed by integrating demographic, social, and physical variables. Therefore, the three models were compared and analyzed by applying spatial weighting to the derived factors. As a result of the significance test, the spatial error model was analyzed to be the most significant. The facilities that have the highest correlation with fire occurrence were second type neighborhood facilities, followed by detached house, first type neighborhood facilities, number of households, and sales facilities. The results of this study are expected to be used as significant data to identify factors and manage fire safety in urban areas. Also, through the analysis of the standard deviation ellipsoid, the distribution characteristics of each facility in the residential area, industrial area, and central commercial area among the use areas were analyzed. In, the second type neighborhood facility with the highest fire risk was concentrated in the center. The results of these studies are expected to be used as useful data for identifying factors and managing fire safety in urban areas.

Prediction of Daily PM10 Concentration for Air Korea Stations Using Artificial Intelligence with LDAPS Weather Data, MODIS AOD, and Chinese Air Quality Data

  • Jeong, Yemin;Youn, Youjeong;Cho, Subin;Kim, Seoyeon;Huh, Morang;Lee, Yangwon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.573-586
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    • 2020
  • PM (particulate matter) is of interest to everyone because it can have adverse effects on human health by the infiltration from respiratory to internal organs. To date, many studies have made efforts for the prediction of PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations. Unlike previous studies, we conducted the prediction of tomorrow's PM10 concentration for the Air Korea stations using Chinese PM10 data in addition to the satellite AOD and weather variables. We constructed 230,639 matchups from the raw data over 3 million and built an RF (random forest) model from the matchups to cope with the complexity and nonlinearity. The validation statistics from the blind test showed excellent accuracy with the RMSE (root mean square error) of 9.905 ㎍/㎥ and the CC (correlation coefficient) of 0.918. Moreover, our prediction model showed a stable performance without the dependency on seasons or the degree of PM10 concentration. However, part of coastal areas had a relatively low accuracy, which implies that a dedicated model for coastal areas will be necessary. Additional input variables such as wind direction, precipitation, and air stability should also be incorporated into the prediction model as future work.

Application into Assessment of Liquefaction Hazard and Geotechnical Vulnerability During Earthquake with High-Precision Spatial-Ground Model for a City Development Area (도시개발 영역 고정밀 공간지반모델의 지진 시 액상화 재해 및 지반 취약성 평가 활용)

  • Kim, Han-Saem;Sun, Chang-Guk;Ha, Ik-Soo
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.221-230
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    • 2023
  • This study proposes a methodology for assessing seismic liquefaction hazard by implementing high-resolution three-dimensional (3D) ground models with high-density/high-precision site investigation data acquired in an area of interest, which would be linked to geotechnical numerical analysis tools. It is possible to estimate the vulnerability of earthquake-induced geotechnical phenomena (ground motion amplification, liquefaction, landslide, etc.) and their triggering complex disasters across an area for urban development with several stages of high-density datasets. In this study, the spatial-ground models for city development were built with a 3D high-precision grid of 5 m × 5 m × 1 m by applying geostatistic methods. Finally, after comparing each prediction error, the geotechnical model from the Gaussian sequential simulation is selected to assess earthquake-induced geotechnical hazards. In particular, with seven independent input earthquake motions, liquefaction analysis with finite element analyses and hazard mappings with LPI and LSN are performed reliably based on the spatial geotechnical models in the study area. Furthermore, various phenomena and parameters, including settlement in the city planning area, are assessed in terms of geotechnical vulnerability also based on the high-resolution spatial-ground modeling. This case study on the high-precision 3D ground model-based zonations in the area of interest verifies the usefulness in assessing spatially earthquake-induced hazards and geotechnical vulnerability and their decision-making support.

Evaluation of HSPF Model Applicability for Runoff Estimation of 3 Sub-watershed in Namgang Dam Watershed (남강댐 상류 3개 소유역의 유출량 추정을 위한 HSPF 모형의 적용성 평가)

  • Kim, So Rae;Kim, Sang Min
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.328-338
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    • 2018
  • The objective of this study was to evaluate the applicability of a HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran) model for runoff estimation in the Namgang dam watershed. Spatial data, such as watershed, stream, land use, and a digital elevation map, were used as input for the HSPF model, which was calibrated and validated using observed runoff data from 2004 to 2015 for three stations (Sancheong, Shinan, Changchon) in the study watershed. Parameters for runoff calibration were selected based on the user's manual and references, and parameter calibration was done by trial and error. The $R^2$ (determination coefficient), RMSE (root-mean-square error), NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient), and RMAE (relative mean absolute error) were used to evaluate the model's performance. Calibration and validation results showed that annual mean runoff was within a ${\pm}5%$ error in Sancheong and Shinan, whereas there was a14% error in Changchon. The model performance criteria for calibration and validation showed that $R^2$ ranged from 0.80 to 0.92, RMSE was 2.33 to 2.39 mm/day, NSE was 0.71 to 0.85, and RMAE was 0.37 to 0.57 mm/day for daily runoff. Visual inspection showed that the simulated daily flow, monthly flow, and flow exceedance graph agreed well with observations for the Sancheong and Shinan stations, whereas the simulated flow was higher than observed at the Changchon station.

Analysis of the Tsyganenko Magnetic Field Model Accuracy during Geomagnetic Storm Times Using the GOES Data

  • Song, Seok-Min;Min, Kyungguk
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.159-167
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    • 2022
  • Because of the small number of spacecraft available in the Earth's magnetosphere at any given time, it is not possible to obtain direct measurements of the fundamental quantities, such as the magnetic field and plasma density, with a spatial coverage necessary for studying, global magnetospheric phenomena. In such cases, empirical as well as physics-based models are proven to be extremely valuable. This requires not only having high fidelity and high accuracy models, but also knowing the weakness and strength of such models. In this study, we assess the accuracy of the widely used Tsyganenko magnetic field models, T96, T01, and T04, by comparing the calculated magnetic field with the ones measured in-situ by the GOES satellites during geomagnetically disturbed times. We first set the baseline accuracy of the models from a data-model comparison during the intervals of geomagnetically quiet times. During quiet times, we find that all three models exhibit a systematic error of about 10% in the magnetic field magnitude, while the error in the field vector direction is on average less than 1%. We then assess the model accuracy by a data-model comparison during twelve geomagnetic storm events. We find that the errors in both the magnitude and the direction are well maintained at the quiet-time level throughout the storm phase, except during the main phase of the storms in which the largest error can reach 15% on average, and exceed well over 70% in the worst case. Interestingly, the largest error occurs not at the Dst minimum but 2-3 hours before the minimum. Finally, the T96 model has consistently underperformed compared to the other models, likely due to the lack of computation for the effects of ring current. However, the T96 and T01 models are accurate enough for most of the time except for highly disturbed periods.

A study using spatial regression models on the determinants of the welfare expenditure in the local governments in Korea (공간회귀분석을 통한 지방자치단체 복지지출의 영향요인에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Gyu-Beom;Ham, Young-Jin
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.16 no.10
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    • pp.89-99
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to analyse the determinants of the change in the welfare expenditure of local governments in 2015. This study analyzed the spatial correlation of welfare expenditure among neighboring local governments and determined the factors affecting the welfare expenditures. According to the results of the study, spatial correlation of welfare expenditure among local governments appears. Determinants, such as socio-economic factors, administrative factors, public financial factors are affecting the amount of the welfare expenditures, but local political factors, and local tax, last year's budgets are not correlated with the amount of local welfare expenditures. In this study, it is significant to found out that the spatial correlation of welfare expenditure among the local governments and to examine the determinants. If possible, it is necessary to analyze the time-series analysis using the multi-year welfare expenditure data, expecially self-welfare expenditures.

Analysis of Determinants of Civilian City Gas Demand Considering Spatial Correlation (공간적 상관성을 고려한 민수용 도시가스 수요결정 요인 분석)

  • Eunbi Park;DooHwan Won
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.59-86
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    • 2024
  • Recently, research on city gas demand is increasing by reflecting the characteristics of each region. The similarity of the social structure of the adjacent region and the density of the supply infrastructure induce spatial correlation with the clustering that has a microscopic relationship between regions. Accordingly, as a result of analyzing the spatial correlation after dividing the demand for city gas for civilian use into a total of 54 regions based on the jurisdiction of 34 city gas companies, it was confirmed that there was a positive spatial correlation from a global and local perspective. In this study, the demand for city gas for civilian use for 54 regions from January 2014 to December 2022 was composed of panel data, and the spatial panel regression analysis and the general panel regression analysis were compared, and it was found that the spatial error model (SEM) was the most suitable model. This presents policy and practical implications by confirming that the demand for city gas for civilian use in one region has a significant relationship with the adjacent region.

Quality Check Monitoring System for Advancing the Yield Rate based on Sensor (베어링 생산수율 향상을 위한 센서기반 품질 체크 모니터링 장치)

  • Xiang, Zhao;Yoon, Dal-Hwan
    • Journal of IKEEE
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.22-28
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    • 2019
  • This paper presents the monitoring method of machining error and quality check to improve the productivity of boring manufacturing process. Machining error usually appears as the offset of spatial location of actual cutting path compared to ideal cutting path. In order to monitor an error of workpiece, multiple factors affecting quality of boring, such as distortion of workpiece, clamping error, radial rotation error of the spindle and motion error of machine tools, were took into account. To verify the productive quality, we propose the quality check system. The system based on IT convergence analyzes the process error rate and saves the analyzed data in memory. Also, these play important roles in detecting an inferior production goods and can decrease the production cost and loss of bearing.

Analysis of Spatial Characteristics Affecting the Use of Public Bicycles: Case of 'Tashu' in Daejeon (공공자전거 이용에 영향을 미치는 공간 특성 분석 - 대전광역시 '타슈'를 대상으로 -)

  • Ahn, Minsu;Yi, Changhyo
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.75-91
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    • 2022
  • With the recent increase in interest in climate change issues, the use of bicycles is complementing public transportation and attracting attention as one of the eco-friendly means of transportation. Daejeon Metropolitan City has been operating Tashu, a public bicycle, since 2008. This study empirically analyzed the spatial characteristics that affect the use of public bicycles by grasping the current status and characteristics of public bicycles and applying spatial econometrics analysis, an analysis model that considers the spatial dependence of spatial data. In addition, a comparative analysis was performed by deriving the results of analyzing six models in terms of rental, return, peak time, non-peak time, weekday, and weekend based on the spatial error model identified as the optimal spatial econometrics model. The analysis model results showed that significant spatial characteristics differed according to the type of public bicycle use. In general, the use of public bicycles was high in areas with a high proportion of young people, a high number of public transportation users, good access to universities and rivers, and relatively low land use mix, and high proportion of apartments. These results indicated that public bicycles are used for commuting purposes on weekdays and leisure purposes on weekends, and if the convenience of using bicycles is improved, the use of public bicycles can be further increased.

Evaluation of SWAT Model Applicability for Runoff Estimation in Nam River Dam Watershed (남강댐 상류 소유역의 유출량 추정을 위한 SWAT 모형의 적용성 평가)

  • Kim, Dong-Hyeon;Kim, Sang-Min
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.58 no.4
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    • pp.9-19
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    • 2016
  • The objective of this study was to evaluate the applicability of SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model for runoff estimation in the Nam river dam watershed. Input data for the SWAT model were established using spatial data (land use, soil, digital elevation map) and weather data. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated using observed runoff data from 2003 to 2014 for three stations (Sancheong, Shinan, Changchon) within the study watershed. The $R^2$ (Determination Coefficient), RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient), and RMAE (Relative Mean Absolute Error) were used to evaluate the model performance. Parameters for runoff calibration were selected based on user's manual and references and trial and error method was applied for parameter calibration. Calibration results showed that annual mean runoff were within ${\pm}5%$ error compared to observed. $R^2$ were ranged 0.64 ~ 0.75, RMSE were 2.51 ~ 4.97 mm/day, NSE were 0.48 ~ 0.65, and RMAE were 0.34 ~ 0.63 mm/day for daily runoff, respectively. The runoff comparison for three stations showed that annual runoff was higher in Changchon especially summer and winter seasons. The flow exceedance graph showed that Sancheong and Shinan stations were similar while Changchon was higher in entire fraction.