• Title/Summary/Keyword: Spatial error model

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A Bayesian Estimation of Price for Commercial Property: Using subjective priors and a kriging technique (상업용 토지 가격의 베이지안 추정: 주관적 사전지식과 크리깅 기법의 활용을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Chang Ro;Eum, Young Seob;Park, Key Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.49 no.5
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    • pp.761-778
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    • 2014
  • There has been relatively little study to model price for commercial property because of its low transaction volume in the market. Despite of this thin market character, this paper tried to estimate prices for commercial lots as accurate as possible. We constructed a model whose components consist of mean structure(global trend), exponential covariance function and a pure error term, and applied it to actual sales price data of Seoul. We explicitly took account of spatial autocorrelation of land price by utilizing a kriging technique, a representative method of spatial interpolation, because the land price of commercial lots has feature of differential price forming pattern depending on submarkets they belong to. In addition, we chose to apply a bayesian kriging to overcome data scarcity by incorporating experts' knowledge into prior probability distribution. The chosen model's excellent performance was verified by the result from validation data. We confirmed that the excellence of the model is attributed to incorporating both autocorexperts' knowledge and spatial autocorrelation in the model construction. This paper is differentiated from previous studies in the sense that it applied the bayesian kriging technique to estimate price for commercial lots and explicitly combined experts' knowledge with data. It is expected that the result of this paper would provide a useful guide for the circumstances under which property price has to be estimated reliably based on sparse transaction data.

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Comparative Analysis of SWAT Generated Streamflow and Stream Water Quality Using Different Spatial Resolution Data (SWAT모형에서 다양한 해상도에 따른 수문-수질 모의결과의 비교분석)

  • Park, Jong-Yoon;Lee, Mi-Seon;Park, Geun-Ae;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2008.05a
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    • pp.102-106
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    • 2008
  • This study is to evaluated the impact of varying spatial resolutions of DEM (2 m, 10 m, and 30 m), land use (QuickBird, 1/25,000 and Landsat), and soil data (1/25,000 and 1/50,000) on the uncertainty of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) predicted streamflow, sediment, T-N, and T-P transport in a small agricultural watershed ($1.21\;km^2$). SWAT model was adopted and the model was calibrated for a $255.4\;km^2$ watershed using 30 m DEM, Landsat land use, and 1/25,000 soil data. The model was run with the combination of three DEM, land use, and soil map respectively. The SWAT model was calibrated for 2 years (1999-2000) using daily streamflow and monthly water quality (SS, T-N, T-P) records from 1999 to 2000, and verified for another 2 years (2001-2002). The average Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency was 0.59 for streamflow and the root mean square error were 2.08, 4.30 and 0.70 tons/yr for sediment, T-N and T-P respectively. The hydrological results showed that output uncertainty was biggest by spatial resolution of land use. Streamflow increase the watershed average CN value of QucikBird land use was 0.4 and 1.8 higher than those of 1/25,000 and Landsat land use caused increase of streamflow.

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Analysis of Airflow Pattern in Plant Factory with Different Inlet and Outlet Locations using Computational Fluid Dynamics

  • Lim, Tae-Gyu;Kim, Yong Hyeon
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.310-317
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: This study was conducted to analyze the air flow characteristics in a plant factory with different inlet and outlet locations using computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Methods: In this study, the flow was assumed to be a steady-state, incompressible, and three-dimensional turbulent flow. A realizable k-${\varepsilon}$ turbulent model was applied to show more reasonable results than the standard model. A CFD software was used to perform the numerical simulation. For validation of the simulation model, a prototype plant factory ($5,900mm{\times}2,800mm{\times}2,400mm$) was constructed with two inlets (${\Phi}250mm$) and one outlet ($710mm{\times}290mm$), located on the top side wall. For the simulation model, the average air current speed at the inlet was $5.11m{\cdot}s^{-1}$. Five cases were simulated to predict the airflow pattern in the plant factory with different inlet and outlet locations. Results: The root mean square error of measured and simulated air current speeds was 13%. The error was attributed to the assumptions applied to mathematical modelling and to the magnitude of the air current speed measured at the inlet. However, the measured and predicted airflow distributions of the plant factory exhibited similar patterns. When the inlets were located at the center of the side wall, the average air current speed in the plant factory was increased but the spatial uniformity was lowered. In contrast, if the inlets were located on the ceiling, the average air current speed was lowered but the uniformity was improved. Conclusions: Based on the results of this study, it was concluded that the airflow pattern in the plant factory with multilayer cultivation shelves was greatly affected by the locations of the inlet and the outlet.

Effective Application of Digital Photogrammetry using Local Terrain Model (국부지형모형을 이용한 수치사진측량의 효율적 적용)

  • 박운용;김정희;문두열;정공운
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry, and Cartography Conference
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.199-204
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    • 2003
  • Digital high resolution cameras are widely available, and are increasingly use in digital close-range photogrammetry. And photogrammetry instruments are developing rapidly and the precision is improving continuously, The building of 3D terrains of high precision are possible and the calculation of the areas or the earthwork volumes have high precision due to the development of the technique of the spatial information system using computer, In this study, using the digital camera which has capacity of keeping numerical value by itself and easy carrying, we analyze the positioning error according to various change of photographing condition. Also we t]v to find a effective method of acquiring basis data for 3D monitoring of high-accuracy in pixel degree through digital close-range photogrammetry with bundle adjustment for local terrain model generation and earthwork volume.

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Study on the Fast Predication of the Wind-Driven Current in the Sachon Bay (사천만에서 취송류의 신속예측에 관한 연구)

  • 최석원;조규대;김동선
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.309-318
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    • 1999
  • In order to fast predict the wind-driven current in a small bay, a convolution method in which the wind-driven current can be generated only wih the local wind is developed and applied in the Sachon Bay. The root mean square(rms) ratio defined as the ratio of the rms error to the rms speed is 0.37. The rms ratio is generally less than 0.2, except for all the mouths of Junju Bay and Namhae-do and in the region between Saryang Island and Sachon. The spatial average of the recover rate of kinetic energy(rrke) is 87%. Thus, the predicted wind-driven current by the convolution model is in a good agreement with the computed one by the numerical model. The raio of the difference between observed residual current (Vr) and predicted wind-driven current (Vc) to a residual current, that is, (Vr-Vc)/Vr shows 56%, 62% at 2 moorings in the Sachon Bay.

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On Maximum Diversity Order over Doubly-Selective MIMO-OFDM Channes

  • Yang Qinghai;Kwak Kyung Sup
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.30 no.7A
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    • pp.628-638
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    • 2005
  • The analysis of maximum diversity order and coding gain for multiple-input multiple-output orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (MIMO-OFDM) systems over time-and frequency-selective (or doubly-selective) channels is addressed in this paper. A novel channel time-space correlation function is developed given the spatially correlated doubly-selective Rayleigh fading channel model. Based on this channel-model assumption, the upper-bound of pairwise error probability (PEP) for MIMO-OFDM systems is derived under the maximum likelihood (ML) detection. For a certain space-frequency code, we quantify the maximum diversity order and deduce the expression of coding gain. In this wort the impact of channel time selectivity is especially studied and a new definition of time diversity is illustrated correspondingly

Building Reconstruction for 3D City Modeling in Korea (국내 실정에 맞는 삼차원 도시모델링을 위한 건물모델 생성방법에 관한 연구)

  • 조영욱;최재완;한동엽;김용일;유기윤
    • Proceedings of the Korean Association of Geographic Inforamtion Studies Conference
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    • 2004.10a
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    • pp.13-18
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    • 2004
  • In this study, a new method is proposed generating 3D wire-frames of building using the lowest level topology, points, which are input by human operators. Through the procedure, it is possible to make prediction occlusion points and generate the topology automatically among points, lines, surfaces from buildings. In order to adjust the error of initial values which are input manually, the least squares adjustment for model-image fitting is carried out using the edge information of aerial imagery. And also, model fitting procedure is done making all surfaces plane of buildings by the least squares adjustment. As a result of those procedure, 3D building models are refined similar to real figures of buildings.

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Research on Wind Waves Characteristics by Comparison of Regional Wind Wave Prediction System and Ocean Buoy Data (지역 파랑 예측시스템과 해양기상 부이의 파랑 특성 비교 연구)

  • You, Sung-Hyup;Park, Jong-Suk
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.7-15
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    • 2010
  • Analyses of wind wave characteristics near the Korean marginal seas were performed in 2008 and 2009 by comparisons of an operational wind wave forecast model and ocean buoy data. In order to evaluate the model performance, its results were compared with the observed data from an ocean buoy. The model used in this study was very good at predicting the characteristics of wind waves near the Korean Peninsula, with correlation coefficients between the model and observations of over 0.8. The averaged Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for 48 hrs of forecasting between the modeled and observed waves and storm surges/tide were 0.540 m and 0.609 m in 2008 and 2009, respectively. In the spatial and seasonal analysis of wind waves, long waves were found in July and September at the southern coast of Korea in 2008, while in 2009 long waves were found in the winter season at the eastern coast of Korea. Simulated significant wave heights showed evident variations caused by Typhoons in the summer season. When Typhoons Kalmaegi and Morakot in 2008 and 2009 approached to Korean Peninsula, the accuracy of the model predictions was good compared to the annual mean value.

A Development of Markov Chain Monte Carlo History Matching Technique for Subsurface Characterization (지하 불균질 예측 향상을 위한 마르코프 체인 몬테 카를로 히스토리 매칭 기법 개발)

  • Jeong, Jina;Park, Eungyu
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.51-64
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    • 2015
  • In the present study, we develop two history matching techniques based on Markov chain Monte Carlo method where radial basis function and Gaussian distribution generated by unconditional geostatistical simulation are employed as the random walk transition kernels. The Bayesian inverse methods for aquifer characterization as the developed models can be effectively applied to the condition even when the targeted information such as hydraulic conductivity is absent and there are transient hydraulic head records due to imposed stress at observation wells. The model which uses unconditional simulation as random walk transition kernel has advantage in that spatial statistics can be directly associated with the predictions. The model using radial basis function network shares the same advantages as the model with unconditional simulation, yet the radial basis function network based the model does not require external geostatistical techniques. Also, by employing radial basis function as transition kernel, multi-scale nested structures can be rigorously addressed. In the validations of the developed models, the overall predictabilities of both models are sound by showing high correlation coefficient between the reference and the predicted. In terms of the model performance, the model with radial basis function network has higher error reduction rate and computational efficiency than with unconditional geostatistical simulation.

Development of radar-based quantitative precipitation forecasting using spatial-scale decomposition method for urban flood management (도시홍수예보를 위한 공간규모분할기법을 이용한 레이더 강우예측 기법 개발)

  • Yoon, Seongsim
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.5
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    • pp.335-346
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    • 2017
  • This study generated the radar-based forecasted rainfall using spatial-scale decomposition method (SCDM) and evaluated the hydrological applicability with forecasted rainfall by KMA (MAPLE, KONOS) in terms of urban flood forecasting. SCDM is to separate the small-scale field (convective cell) and large-scale field (straitform cell) from radar rainfield. And each separated field is forecasted by translation model and storm tracker nowcasting model for improvement of QPF accuracy. As the evaluated results of various QPF for three rainfall events in Seoul and Metropolitan area, proposed method showed better prediction accuracy than MAPLE and KONOS considering the simplicity of the methodology. In addition, this study assessed the urban hydrological applicability for Gangnam basin. As the results, KONOS simulated the peak of water depth more accurately than MAPLE and SCDM, however cannot simulated the timeseries pattern of water depth. In the case of SCDM, the quantitative error was larger than observed water depth, but the simulated pattern was similar to observation. The SCDM will be useful information for flood forecasting if quantitative accuracy is improved through the adjustment technique and blending with NWP.