• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.529-540
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• 2018

As the equipment of the military has recently become more sophisticated and expensive, the cost of purchasing spare parts is also steadily increasing. Therefore, demand forecast accuracy is also becoming an issue for the effective execution of the spare parts budget. This study predicts the demand by using the data of spare parts consumption of the KF-16C fighter which is being operated in the Republic of Korea Air Force. In this paper, SARIMA(Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) is applied to seasonal data after dividing the spare parts consumptions into seasonal data and non-seasonal data. Proposing new methods, Majority Voting and Hybrid Method, to the non-seasonal data which consists of spare parts of low consumption with unclear pattern, We want to prove that the demand forecast accuracy of spare parts improves.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.406-415
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• 2024

As the equipment of the military has become more advanced and expensive, the cost of securing spare parts is also constantly increasing along with the increase in equipment assets. In particular, forecasting demand for spare parts one of the important management tasks in the military, and the accuracy of these predictions is directly related to military operations and cost management. However, because the demand for spare parts is intermittent and irregular, it is often difficult to make accurate predictions using traditional statistical methods or a single statistical or machine learning model. In this paper, we propose a model that can increase the accuracy of demand forecasting for irregular patterns of spare parts demanding by using a combination of statistical and machine learning algorithm, and through experiments on Cheonma spare parts demanding data.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.253-259
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• 2017

Recent development in science and technology has modernized the weapon system of ROKN (Republic Of Korea Navy). Although the cost of purchasing, operating and maintaining the cutting-edge weapon systems has been increased significantly, the national defense expenditure is under a tight budget constraint. In order to maintain the availability of ships with low cost, we need accurate demand forecasts for spare parts. We attempted to find consumption pattern using data mining techniques. First we gathered a large amount of component consumption data through the DELIIS (Defense Logistics Intergrated Information System). Through data collection, we obtained 42 variables such as annual consumption quantity, ASL selection quantity, order-relase ratio. The objective variable is the quantity of spare parts purchased in f-year and MSE (Mean squared error) is used as the predictive power measure. To construct an optimal demand forecasting model, regression tree model, randomforest model, neural network model, and linear regression model were used as data mining techniques. The open software R was used for model construction. The results show that randomforest model is the best value of MSE. The important variables utilized in all models are consumption quantity, ASL selection quantity and order-release rate. The data related to the demand forecast of spare parts in the DELIIS was collected and the demand for the spare parts was estimated by using the data mining technique. Our approach shows improved performance in demand forecasting with higher accuracy then previous work. Also data mining can be used to identify variables that are related to demand forecasting.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.38 no.1
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• pp.110-117
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• 2015

Spare part management is very important to products that have large number of parts and long lifecycle such as automobile and aircraft. Supply chain must support immediate procurement for repair. However, it is not easy to handle spare parts efficiently due to huge stock keeping units. Qualified forecasting is the basis for the supply chain to achieve the goal. In this paper, we propose an agent based modeling approach that can deal with various factors simultaneously without mathematical modeling. Simulation results show that the proposed method is reasonable to describe demand generation process, and consequently, to forecast demand of spare parts in long-term perspective.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2005.05a
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• pp.938-946
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• 2005

We study the firm's strategy to price its products and plan the spare parts manufacturing so as to maximize its profit and at the same time to fulfill its commitment to providing the customers with the key parts continuously over the relevant decision time horizon, i.e., the production plus warrantee period. To examine the research question, we developed and solved a two-stage optimal control theory model. Our analysis suggests that if the cost to produce the spare part during the warrantee period is more expensive than that during the production period, the firm should increase its sales price gradually throughout the production period to control its sales. In addition, during the production period it is optimal for the firm to produce the spare parts more than needed so that the overproduced spare parts can be used to partially meet the demand during the warrantee period. We conducted numerical analysis to investigate the sensitivity dynamics among key variables and parameters such as inventory holding cost, unit spare part production costs, part failure rate, and parameters in the demand function.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.31-44
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• 2010

It is very important to forecast demand and determine the optimal procurement quantities of spare parts. The Army has been forecasting demand not with actual usage of spare parts but with request quantities. However, the Army could not purchase all of forecasted demand quantities due to budget limit. Thus, the procurement quantities depend on the item managers' intuition and their meetings. The system currently used contains many problems. This study suggests a new determination procedure; 1) forecasting demand method based on actual usage, 2) determining procurement method through LP model with budge and other constraints. The newly determined quantities of spare parts is verified in the simulation model, that represents the real operational and maintenance situation to measure the operational availability. The result shows that the new forecasting method with actual usage improves the operational availability. Also, the procurement determination with LP improves the operational availability as well.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.101-114
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• 2012

The demand for naval spare parts is intermittent and erratic. This feature, referred to as non-normal demand, makes forecasting difficult. Hierarchical forecasting using an aggregated time series can be more reliable to predict non-normal demand than direct forecasting. In practice the performance of hierarchical forecasting is not always superior to direct forecasting. The relative performance of the alternative forecasting methods depends on the demand features. This paper analyses the influence of the demand features on the performance of the alternative forecasting methods that use hierarchical and direct forecasting. Among various demand features variability, kurtosis, skewness and equipment groups are shown to significantly influence on the performance of the alternative forecasting methods.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.163-172
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• 2012

In this study, It is assumed that customers are both usage unit of spare parts and stores of displaying and selling the goods that are installation unit of having the spare parts. The demand pattern through the effective order of spare parts and issue list in installation unit is investigated based on the assumption. Current ASL (Authorized Stockage List) selection of the army has been conducted in the way of using the analysis result of real usage experiences on spare parts used during the Korea War. For this study, ASL selection criteria and procedures based on army regulations and field manuals are specified. Since the traditional method does not presents the association analysis on spare parts used for the current equipment operating and does not have the clear criterion and analysis system about the ASL selection, in order to solve these problems, it was carried out that the association rule is employed for analyzing relationship between the effective order and issue list of the spare parts in point of the spare parts between usage unit and occurring month about purchase spare parts based on the star-schema table. Finally the new ASL selection way using the analysis result is proposed.

• Management Science and Financial Engineering
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.1-10
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• 2013

Hierarchical forecasting strategy does not always outperform direct forecasting strategy. The performance generally depends on demand features. This research guides the use of the alternative forecasting strategies according to demand features. This paper developed and evaluated various classification models such as logistic regression (LR), artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees (DT), boosted trees (BT), and random forests (RF) for predicting the relative performance of the alternative forecasting strategies for the South Korean navy's spare parts demand which has non-normal characteristics. ANN minimized classification errors and inventory costs, whereas LR minimized the Brier scores and the sum of forecasting errors.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.9-17
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• 1990

This paper deals with a FOQ( ; fixed-order quantity) model for spare-part inventory control. In a spare-part inventory problem, stock depletion arises not from external market demand but from internal demand resulting from failures of parts in use. The problem differs from the classical inventory problem in that the demand for a failed part never arises more during stockout period, since the unit remains inoperative when stockout occurs until the failed part is replaced by new one. In the problem under consideration, n identical units are operating simultaneously and failed one is replaced immediately by new one if on-hand spares remain. In order to replenish spares, an order with quantity Q is placed whenever the number of on-hand spares falls to levels. The average annual cost of operating the spare-part inventory system is derived under the assumption that both lifetime of a part and replenishment lead-time distributions are exponential.