• 한국항공운항학회지
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.13-17
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• 2012

The solar storm generated by solar activity can be impact on earth in various area. If solar storm impact on Navaids system, it will be a serious problem for aviation and human safety. The impact analysis of solar strom on Navaids system are performed in three area, ILS, GPS navigation and radio communication for aviation. Analysis result show that Instrument Landing System(LLZ, GP, MB) and Navaids system(VOR, DME, Radar) are not impacted by the solar storm, but GPS system is impacted by solar storm. Also analysis result show that VHF/UHF radio system are not impacted by solar storm, but HF radio system is impacted by solar storm.

• 천문학회보
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• 제38권2호
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• pp.33-33
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• 2013

We are developing empirical space weather (solar flare, solar proton event, and geomagnetic storm) forecast models based on solar data. In this talk we will review our main results and recent progress. First, we have examined solar flare (R) occurrence probability depending on sunspot McIntosh classification, its area, and its area change. We find that sunspot area and its increase (a proxy of flux emergence) greatly enhance solar flare occurrence rates for several sunspot classes. Second, a solar proton event (S) forecast model depending on flare parameters (flare strength, duration, and longitude) as well as CME parameters (speed and angular width) has been developed. We find that solar proton event probability strongly depends on these parameters and CME speed is well correlated with solar proton flux for disk events. Third, we have developed an empirical storm (G) forecast model to predict probability and strength of a storm using halo CME - Dst storm data. For this we use storm probability maps depending on CME parameters such as speed, location, and earthward direction. We are also looking for geoeffective CME parameters such as cone model parameters and magnetic field orientation. We find that all superstorms (less than -200 nT) occurred in the western hemisphere with southward field orientations. We have a plan to set up a storm forecast method with a three-stage approach, which will make a prediction within four hours after the solar coronagraph data become available. We expect that this study will enable us to forecast the onset and strength of a geomagnetic storm a few days in advance using only CME parameters and the WSA-ENLIL model. Finally, we discuss several ongoing works for space weather applications.

• 한국우주과학회:학술대회논문집(한국우주과학회보)
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• 한국우주과학회 2011년도 한국우주과학회보 제20권1호
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• pp.27.2-27.2
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• 2011

The Total Electron Content (TEC) measured from Global Positioning System (GPS) can be continuously or peculiarly increased (positive ionospheric storm) or decreased (negative ionospheric storm) with solar and geomagnetic activities as well as the chemical and dynamic processes with thermosphere in the mid-latitudes. The ionospheric storm is not easy to predict owing to its difficult mechanism, and the real-time GPS TEC monitoring may be useful to follow ionospheric response to solar and geomagnetic storms. Korea Astronomy & Space Science Institute has continuously monitor GPS TEC over Korea Peninsula in near real-time of 10 minutes to watch activities. In this presentation, we will report the variation of GPS TEC over Daejeon and JeJu in Korea during the period of solar flare eruption and geomagnetic storm events in 2011. These events in 2011 will be compared with the event in October 2003 and November 2004.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.123-132
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• 2011

It is generally believed that the occurrence of a magnetic storm depends upon the solar wind conditions, particularly the southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) component. To understand the relationship between solar wind parameters and magnetic storms, variations in magnetic field polarity and solar wind parameters during magnetic storms are examined. A total of 156 storms during the period of 1997~2003 are used. According to the interplanetary driver, magnetic storms are divided into three types, which are coronal mass ejection (CME)-driven storms, co-rotating interaction region (CIR)-driven storms, and complicated type storms. Complicated types were not included in this study. For this purpose, the manner in which the direction change of IMF $B_y$ and $B_z$ components (in geocentric solar magnetospheric coordinate system coordinate) during the main phase is related with the development of the storm is examined. The time-integrated solar wind parameters are compared with the time-integrated disturbance storm time (Dst) index during the main phase of each magnetic storm. The time lag with the storm size is also investigated. Some results are worth noting: CME-driven storms, under steady conditions of $B_z$ < 0, represent more than half of the storms in number. That is, it is found that the average number of storms for negative sign of IMF $B_z$ (T1~T4) is high, at 56.4%, 53.0%, and 63.7% in each storm category, respectively. However, for the CIR-driven storms, the percentage of moderate storms is only 29.2%, while the number of intense storms is more than half (60.0%) under the $B_z$ < 0 condition. It is found that the correlation is highest between the time-integrated IMF $B_z$ and the time-integrated Dst index for the CME-driven storms. On the other hand, for the CIR-driven storms, a high correlation is found, with the correlation coefficient being 0.93, between time-integrated Dst index and time-integrated solar wind speed, while a low correlation, 0.51, is found between timeintegrated $B_z$ and time-integrated Dst index. The relationship between storm size and time lag in terms of hours from $B_z$ minimum to Dst minimum values is investigated. For the CME-driven storms, time lag of 26% of moderate storms is one hour, whereas time lag of 33% of moderate storms is two hours for the CIR-driven storms. The average values of solar wind parameters for the CME and CIR-driven storms are also examined. The average values of ${\mid}Dst_{min}{\mid}$ and ${\mid}B_{zmin}{\mid}$ for the CME-driven storms are higher than those of CIR-driven storms, while the average value of temperature is lower.

• 천문학회지
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• 제37권4호
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• pp.151-157
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• 2004

It is investigated quantitative relations between the magnetic storm magnitude and the solar wind parameters such as the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (hereinafter, IMF) magnitude (B), the southward component of IMF (Bz), and the dynamic pressure during the main phase of the magnetic storm with focus on the role of the interplanetary shock (hereinafter, IPS) in order to build the space weather fore-casting model in the future capable to predict the occurrence of the magnetic storm and its magnitude quantitatively. Total 113 moderate and intense magnetic storms and 189 forward IPSs are selected for four years from 1998 to 2001. The results agree with the general consensus that solar wind parameter, especially, Bz component in the shocked gas region plays the most important role in generating storms (Tsurutani and Gonzales, 1997). However, we found that the correlations between the solar wind parameters and the magnetic storm magnitude are higher in case the storm happens after the IPS passing than in case the storm occurs without any IPS influence. The correlation coefficients of B and $BZ_(min)$ are specially over 0.8 while the magnetic storms are driven by IPSs. Even though recently a Dst prediction model based on the real time solar wind data (Temerin and Li, 2002) is made, our correlation test results would be supplementary in estimating the prediction error of such kind of model and in improving the model by using the different fitting parameters in cases associated with IPS or not associated with IPS rather than single fitting parameter in the current model.

• 천문학회보
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• 제36권2호
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• pp.90.1-90.1
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• 2011

We are developing empirical space weather (geomagnetic storms, solar proton events, and solar flares) forecast models based on solar information. These models have been set up with the concept of probabilistic forecast using historical events. Major findings can be summarized as follows. First, we present a concept of storm probability map depending on CME parameters (speed and location). Second, we suggested a new geoeffective CME parameter, earthward direction parameter, directly observable from coronagraph observations, and demonstrated its importance in terms of the forecast of geomagnetic storms. Third, the importance of solar magnetic field orientation for storm occurrence was examined. Fourth, the relationship among coronal hole-CIR-storm relationship has been investigated, Fifth, the CIR forecast based on coronal hole information is possible but the storm forecast is challenging. Sixth, a new solar proton event (flux, strength, and rise time) forecast method depending on flare parameters (flare strength, duration, and longitude) as well as CME parameter (speed, angular width, and longitude) has been suggested. Seventh, we are examining the rates and probability of solar flares depending on sunspot McIntosh classification and its area change (as a proxy of flux change). Our results show that flux emergence greatly enhances the flare probability, about two times for flare productive sunspot regions.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제35권6호
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• pp.477-482
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• 2011

태양 흑점수의 증감주기 (약 11년)에 따른 태양폭발 (태양에서의 플레어 현상)은 태양 코로나 물질을 대방출하는 태양폭풍을 야기한다. 미국해양대기청 (NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)은 태양 흑점활동이 2013년과 2014년 사이에 극대화 될 것이라고 예상했다. 강력한 태양폭풍의 영향이 지구에 미쳤을 경우 인공위성을 이용한 전 세계 측위시스템의 교란, 각종 통신수단 및 TV, 라디오 방송 등이 영향을 받을 것으로 예상된다. 실제로 1989년 태양폭풍은 캐나다에서 정전사태를 일으켜 9시간동안 약 600만 명이 정전으로 인한 피해를 입은 사례가 있다. 이와 같은 초강력 태양폭풍은 인공위성의 수명을 약 5~10년 정도 단축시키며 이로 인한 경제적 손실 및 파급효과를 고려하면 액수는 수십조 원에 달할 것으로 예상된다. 최근 2011년 2월 15일 10시 45분경 (01:30 - UTC)에 발생했던 X급 태양폭발에 의해 발생한 태양폭풍의 영향이 2011년 2월 18일 오전 10시 30분경 우리나라 (보현산 관측소)에서 관측되었다. 본 논문에서는 현재 흑점수가 증가하고 있는 시점에서 2월 18일의 태양폭발 일주일 전후 지자기 데이터를 비교하고, 또한 대전과 서울지역에서 관측한 RINEX 데이터를 이용하여 측위결과를 비교 분석하였다. 태양폭풍이 지구에 도달한 2011년 2월 18일의 지자기 관측값은 일주일 전후 데이터와 비교하여 양자(Proton) 자력계 관측결과가 요동하였고, 대전과 서울지역에서의 측위결과도 태양폭풍 일주일 전후와 비교하여 2월 18일에 가장 큰 측위오차를 보였다.

• 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국항해항만학회 2011년도 춘계학술대회
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• pp.27-28
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• 2011

태양 흑점수의 증감주기 (약 11년)에 따른 태양폭발 (태양에서의 플레어 현상)은 태양 코로나 물질을 대방출하는 태양폭풍을 야기한다. 미국해양대기청 (NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)은 태양 흑점활동이 2013년과 2014년 사이에 극대화 될 것이라고 예상했다. 강력한 태양폭풍의 영향이 지구에 미쳤을 경우 인공위성을 이용한 전세계 측위시스템의 교란, 각종 통신수단 및 TV, 라디오 방송 등이 영향을 받을 것으로 예상된다. 실제로 1989년 태양폭풍은 캐나다에서 정전사태를 일으켜 9시간동안 약 600만명이 정전으로 인한 피해를 입은 사례가 있다. 이와 같은 초강력 태양폭풍은 인공위성의 수명을 약 5~10년정도 단축시켰으며 이로 인한 경제적 손실 및 파급효과를 고려하면 액수는 수십조 원에 달할 것으로 예상된다. 최근 2011년 2월 15일 10시 45분경 (지역시)에 발생했던 X급 태양폭발에 의해 발생한 태양폭풍의 영향이 2011년 2월 18일 오전 10시 30분경 우리나라 (보현산 관측소)에서 관측되었다. 본 논문에서는 현재 흑점수가 증가하고 있는 시점에서 2월 18일의 태양폭발 일주일 전후 자기장 데이터를 비교하고, 또한 대전에서 관측한 RINEX 데이터를 이용하여 측위결과를 비교 분석하였다. 태양폭풍이 지구에 도달한 2011년 2월 18일의 자기장 관측 값은 일주일 전후 데이터와 비교하여 Proton이 요동하는 결과를 보였고, 대전지역에서의 측위결과도 태양폭풍 일주일 전후와 비교하여 최대 1m이상의 측위오차를 보였다.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제35권9호
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• pp.701-706
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• 2011

Radio waves including GPS signals, various TV communications, and radio broadcasting can be disturbed by a strong solar storm, which may occur due to solar flares and produce an ionospheric delay anomaly in the ionosphere according to the change of total electron content. Electron density irregularities can cause deep signal fading, frequently known as ionospheric scintillation, which can result in the positioning error using GPS signal. This paper proposes a detection algorithm for the ionosphere delay anomaly during a solar storm by using multi-reference stations. Different TEC grid which has irregular electron density was applied above one reference station. Then the ionospheric delay in zenith direction applied different TEC will show comparatively large ionospheric zenith delay due to the electron irregularity. The ionospheric slant delay applied an elevation angle at reference station was analyzed to detect the ionospheric delay anomaly that can result in positioning error. A simulation test was implemented and a proposed detection algorithm using data logged by four reference stations was applied to detect the ionospheric delay anomaly compared to a criterion.

• 천문학회보
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• 제38권1호
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• pp.63.1-63.1
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• 2013

To improve the forecast capability of geomagnetic storms, we consider the real time solar and near Earth conditions together, since the characteristics of CMEs can be modified during their transit from the Sun to the Earth, and the geomagnetic storms may be directly affected by not only solar events but also near Earth interplanetary conditions. Using 55 CME-Dst pairs associated with M- and X-class solar flares, which have clearly identifiable source regions during 1997 to 2003, we confirm that the peak values of negative magnetic field Bz and duskward electric field Ey prior to Dst minimum are strongly related with Dst index. We suggest the solar wind criteria (Bz<-5 nT or Ey>3 mV/m for t>2 hr) for moderate storm less than -50 nT by modifying the criteria for intense storms less than -100 nT proposed by Gonzalez and Tsurutani (GT, 1987). As the results, 90% (28/31) of the storms are correctly forecasted by our criteria. For 15 exceptional events that are incorrectly forecasted by only CME parameters, 12 cases (80%) can be properly forecasted by solar wind criteria. When we applying CME and solar wind conditions together, all geomagnetic storms (Dst<-50 nT) are correctly forecasted. Our results show that, the storm forecast capability of the 2~3 days advanced warning based on CME parameters can be improved by combining with the urgent warning based on the near Earth solar wind condition.