• Title/Summary/Keyword: Social Media Impact

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Examining the Formation of Entrepreneurial Activities through Cognitive Approach (기업가적 활동 형성에 미치는 영향요인: 인지론적 접근)

  • Lee, Chaewon
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.65-74
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    • 2017
  • There have been questions how entrepreneurs think, act and why individuals become entrepreneurs. The trait-based explanation of entrepreneurial activities has been main stream. However, the trait-based theory has been criticized because it assumes that entrepreneurial traits are inherited, stable and enduring over time. This research accepts the cognitive theory to see how entrepreneurs learn or accept others' values, how entrepreneurial perceptions of opportunity impact entrepreneurial actions and how individuals acquire the social legitimation of the formation of entrepreneurial activities. In order to capture the attitudes, activities and motivations of people who are involved in entrepreneurial activities, the author uses the GEM Korea 2016 data. The data from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor(GEM) has been well known for the data to capture individuals early-stage entrepreneurial activities. This paper used the sample from the APS(Adult Population Survey) of the GEM which was completed by a representative sample of two thousand adults in Korea by the qualified survey vendor, with strict procedures and oversight by the GEM central data team. The hypotheses are tested with logit regression analysis to estimate the probability of the influence of perceptual variables such as individual perception in social learning, the opportunity recognition in the environment, and social legitimation in the entrepreneurial activities. Based on the results, individuals tend to have high entrepreneurial activities if individuals have high self-efficacy. Also, the existence of role models around the entrepreneurs encourages the individuals involve in entrepreneurial activities more however the perception of opportunity in the environment is not strongly associated with entrepreneurial activities. The media exposure of successful entrepreneurs is more important than others' perception of entrepreneurs on the desirable career option or respect from communities. This paper can contribute to the cognitive processes, particular perception about oneself, as well as perception which is impacted by a community or a society.

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The Making of Artistic Fame:The Case of Korean Handicraft Artists (예술가 명성(fame) 형성 요인에 관한 연구: 국내 공예작가의 사례를 중심으로)

  • Choe, Youngshin;Hyun, Eunjung
    • Review of Culture and Economy
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.141-173
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    • 2018
  • In this article, we explore how artistic fame is formed by analyzing antecedents of fame the extent to which the name of an actor or his/her work is positively known by his/her audiences among Korean handicraft artists. Drawing on prior literature on reputation and fame, we clarify the differences between the concept of reputation and the concept of fame and further distinguish three types of reputation among individual artists, depending on its sources expert reputation, market reputation, and peer reputation. We employ the mixed method in this study, in which we first conducted open-end interviews with three kinds of constituents (i.e., critics, market intermediaries, and artists) and then developed and tested the hypotheses derived from the insights we had obtained from the interviews. We further considered the impact of reputational work, defined as the level of effort devoted and activities performed by an artist him(her)self geared toward promoting his(her) work, on artistic fame. We find that there are large differences in factors associated with artistic fame between non elite and elite Korean handicraft artist groups, where elite status is captured by artists' educational background (i.e., Seoul National University and Hongik University, which are considered elite schools in accordance with prior research). Specifically, findings suggest that among non elite status artists, recognition by experts, or what we call expert reputation, acquired through national awards and invitations from prominent exhibitions as well as artists' own reputational work that incurs high cost, such as self-financed exhibition openings, were shown to be highly significant factors associated with artistic fame, which was measured as the number of media exposures related to her/his art work. By contrast, among elite status artists, peer reputation acquired through an artist's institutional affiliations and relatively low cost artists' own reputational work, such as self listing on a highly publicized magazine, were shown to be significant factors associated with fame. Taken together, this paper contributes to research on cultural industries and markets by highlighting the importance of understanding artistic fame not just as the outcome of her/his talent but as the social product that arises at the intersection of actors (artists) and her/his audiences in the social evaluation process.

Product Community Analysis Using Opinion Mining and Network Analysis: Movie Performance Prediction Case (오피니언 마이닝과 네트워크 분석을 활용한 상품 커뮤니티 분석: 영화 흥행성과 예측 사례)

  • Jin, Yu;Kim, Jungsoo;Kim, Jongwoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.49-65
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    • 2014
  • Word of Mouth (WOM) is a behavior used by consumers to transfer or communicate their product or service experience to other consumers. Due to the popularity of social media such as Facebook, Twitter, blogs, and online communities, electronic WOM (e-WOM) has become important to the success of products or services. As a result, most enterprises pay close attention to e-WOM for their products or services. This is especially important for movies, as these are experiential products. This paper aims to identify the network factors of an online movie community that impact box office revenue using social network analysis. In addition to traditional WOM factors (volume and valence of WOM), network centrality measures of the online community are included as influential factors in box office revenue. Based on previous research results, we develop five hypotheses on the relationships between potential influential factors (WOM volume, WOM valence, degree centrality, betweenness centrality, closeness centrality) and box office revenue. The first hypothesis is that the accumulated volume of WOM in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. The second hypothesis is that the accumulated valence of WOM in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. The third hypothesis is that the average of degree centralities of reviewers in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. The fourth hypothesis is that the average of betweenness centralities of reviewers in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. The fifth hypothesis is that the average of betweenness centralities of reviewers in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. To verify our research model, we collect movie review data from the Internet Movie Database (IMDb), which is a representative online movie community, and movie revenue data from the Box-Office-Mojo website. The movies in this analysis include weekly top-10 movies from September 1, 2012, to September 1, 2013, with in total. We collect movie metadata such as screening periods and user ratings; and community data in IMDb including reviewer identification, review content, review times, responder identification, reply content, reply times, and reply relationships. For the same period, the revenue data from Box-Office-Mojo is collected on a weekly basis. Movie community networks are constructed based on reply relationships between reviewers. Using a social network analysis tool, NodeXL, we calculate the averages of three centralities including degree, betweenness, and closeness centrality for each movie. Correlation analysis of focal variables and the dependent variable (final revenue) shows that three centrality measures are highly correlated, prompting us to perform multiple regressions separately with each centrality measure. Consistent with previous research results, our regression analysis results show that the volume and valence of WOM are positively related to the final box office revenue of movies. Moreover, the averages of betweenness centralities from initial community networks impact the final movie revenues. However, both of the averages of degree centralities and closeness centralities do not influence final movie performance. Based on the regression results, three hypotheses, 1, 2, and 4, are accepted, and two hypotheses, 3 and 5, are rejected. This study tries to link the network structure of e-WOM on online product communities with the product's performance. Based on the analysis of a real online movie community, the results show that online community network structures can work as a predictor of movie performance. The results show that the betweenness centralities of the reviewer community are critical for the prediction of movie performance. However, degree centralities and closeness centralities do not influence movie performance. As future research topics, similar analyses are required for other product categories such as electronic goods and online content to generalize the study results.

Structural Properties of Social Network and Diffusion of Product WOM: A Sociocultural Approach (사회적 네트워크 구조특성과 제품구전의 확산: 사회문화적 접근)

  • Yoon, Sung-Joon;Han, Hee-Eun
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.141-177
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    • 2011
  • I. Research Objectives: Most of the previous studies on diffusion have concentrated on efficacy of WOM communication with the use of variables at individual level (Iacobucci 1996; Midgley et al. 1992). However, there is a paucity of studies which investigated network's structural properties as antecedents of WOM from the perspective of consumers' sociocultural propensities. Against this research backbone, this study attempted to link the network's structural properties and consumer' WOM behavior on cross-national basis. The major research objective of this study was to examine the relationship between network properties and WOM by comparing Korean and Chinese consumers. Specific objectives of this research are threefold; firstly, it sought to examine whether network properties (i.e., tie strength, centrality, range) affect WOM (WOM intention and quality of WOM). Secondly, it aimed to explore the moderating effects of cutural orientation (uncertainty avoidance and individuality) on the relationship between network properties and WOM. Thirdly, it substantiates the role of innovativeness as antecedents to both network properties and WOM. II. Research Hypotheses: Based on the above research objectives, the study put forth the following research hypotheses to validate. ${\cdot}$ H 1-1 : The Strength of tie between two counterparts within network will positively influence WOM effectivenes ${\cdot}$ H 1-2 : The network centrality will positively influence the WOM effectiveness ${\cdot}$ H 1-3 : The network range will positively influence the WOM effectiveness ${\cdot}$ H 2-1 : The consumer's uncertainty avoidance tendency will moderate the relationship between network properties and WOM effectiveness ${\cdot}$ H 2-2 : The consumer's individualism tendency will moderate the relationship between network properties and WOM effectiveness ${\cdot}$ H 3-1 : The consumer's innovativeness will positively influence the social network properties ${\cdot}$ H 3-2 : The consumer's innovativeness will positively influence WOM effectiveness III. Methodology: Through a pilot study and back-translation, two versions of questionnaire were prepared, one in Korean and the other in Chinese. The chinese data were collected from the chinese students enrolled in language schools in Suwon city in Korea, while Korean data were collected from students taking classes in a major university in Seoul. A total of 277 questionnaire were used for analysis of Korean data and 212 for Chinese data. The reason why Chinese students living in Korea rather than in China were selected was based on two factors: one was to neutralize the differences (ie, retail channel availability) that may arise from living in separate countries and the second was to minimize the difference in communication venues such as internet accessibility and cell phone usability. SPSS 12.0 and AMOS 7.0 were used for analysis. IV. Results: Prior to hypothesis verification, mean differences between the two countries in terms of major constructs were performed with the following result; As for network properties (tie strength, centrality and range), Koreans showed higher scores in all three constructs. For cultural orientation traits, Koreans scored higher only on uncertainty avoidance trait than Chinese. As a result of verifying the first research objective, confirming the relationship between network properties and WOM effectiveness, on Korean side, tie strength(Beta=.116; t=1.785) and centrality (Beta=.499; t=6.776) significantly influenced on WOM intention, and similar finding was obtained for Chinese side, with tie strength (Beta=.246; t=3.544) and centrality (Beta=.247; t=3.538) being significant. However, with regard to WOM argument quality, Korean data yielded only centrality (Beta=.82; t=7.600) having a significant impact on WOM, whereas China showed both tie strength(Beat=.142; t=2.052) and centrality(Beta=.348; t=5.031) being influential. To answer for the second research objective addressing the moderating role of cultural orientation, moderated regression anaylsis was performed and the result showed that uncertainty avoidance moderated between network range and WOM intention for both Korea and China, But for Korea, the uncertainty avoidance moderated between tie strength and WOM quality, while for China it moderated between network range and WOM intention. And innovativeness moderated between tie strength and WOM intention for Korea but it moderated between network range and WOM intention for China. As a result of analysing for third research objective, we found that for Korea, innovativeness positively influenced centrality only (Beta=.546; t=10.808), while for China it influenced both tie strength (Beta=.203; t=2.998) and centrality(Beta=.518; t=8.782). But for both countries alike, the innovativeness influenced positively on WOM (WOM intention and WOM quality). V. Implications: The study yields the two practical implications. Firstly, the result suggests that companies targeting multinational customers need to identify segments which are susceptible to the positive WOM and WOM information based on individual traits such as uncertainty avoidance and individualism and based on that, develop marketing communication strategy. Secondly, the companies need to divide the market on Roger's five innovation stages and based on this information, enforce marketing strategy which utilizes social networking tools such as public media and WOM. For instance, innovator and early adopters, if provided with new product information, will be able to capitalize upon the network advantages and thus add informational value to network operations using SNS or corporate blog.

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An Analysis of the Internal Marketing Impact on the Market Capitalization Fluctuation Rate based on the Online Company Reviews from Jobplanet (직원을 위한 내부마케팅이 기업의 시가 총액 변동률에 미치는 영향 분석: 잡플래닛 기업 리뷰를 중심으로)

  • Kichul Choi;Sang-Yong Tom Lee
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.39-62
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    • 2018
  • Thanks to the growth of computing power and the recent development of data analytics, researchers have started to work on the data produced by users through the Internet or social media. This study is in line with these recent research trends and attempts to adopt data analytical techniques. We focus on the impact of "internal marketing" factors on firm performance, which is typically studied through survey methodologies. We looked into the job review platform Jobplanet (www.jobplanet.co.kr), which is a website where employees and former employees anonymously review companies and their management. With web crawling processes, we collected over 40K data points and performed morphological analysis to classify employees' reviews for internal marketing data. We then implemented econometric analysis to see the relationship between internal marketing and market capitalization. Contrary to the findings of extant survey studies, internal marketing is positively related to a firm's market capitalization only within a limited area. In most of the areas, the relationships are negative. Particularly, female-friendly environment and human resource development (HRD) are the areas exhibiting positive relations with market capitalization in the manufacturing industry. In the service industry, most of the areas, such as employ welfare and work-life balance, are negatively related with market capitalization. When firm size is small (or the history is short), female-friendly environment positively affect firm performance. On the contrary, when firm size is big (or the history is long), most of the internal marketing factors are either negative or insignificant. We explain the theoretical contributions and managerial implications with these results.

Stock-Index Invest Model Using News Big Data Opinion Mining (뉴스와 주가 : 빅데이터 감성분석을 통한 지능형 투자의사결정모형)

  • Kim, Yoo-Sin;Kim, Nam-Gyu;Jeong, Seung-Ryul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.143-156
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    • 2012
  • People easily believe that news and stock index are closely related. They think that securing news before anyone else can help them forecast the stock prices and enjoy great profit, or perhaps capture the investment opportunity. However, it is no easy feat to determine to what extent the two are related, come up with the investment decision based on news, or find out such investment information is valid. If the significance of news and its impact on the stock market are analyzed, it will be possible to extract the information that can assist the investment decisions. The reality however is that the world is inundated with a massive wave of news in real time. And news is not patterned text. This study suggests the stock-index invest model based on "News Big Data" opinion mining that systematically collects, categorizes and analyzes the news and creates investment information. To verify the validity of the model, the relationship between the result of news opinion mining and stock-index was empirically analyzed by using statistics. Steps in the mining that converts news into information for investment decision making, are as follows. First, it is indexing information of news after getting a supply of news from news provider that collects news on real-time basis. Not only contents of news but also various information such as media, time, and news type and so on are collected and classified, and then are reworked as variable from which investment decision making can be inferred. Next step is to derive word that can judge polarity by separating text of news contents into morpheme, and to tag positive/negative polarity of each word by comparing this with sentimental dictionary. Third, positive/negative polarity of news is judged by using indexed classification information and scoring rule, and then final investment decision making information is derived according to daily scoring criteria. For this study, KOSPI index and its fluctuation range has been collected for 63 days that stock market was open during 3 months from July 2011 to September in Korea Exchange, and news data was collected by parsing 766 articles of economic news media M company on web page among article carried on stock information>news>main news of portal site Naver.com. In change of the price index of stocks during 3 months, it rose on 33 days and fell on 30 days, and news contents included 197 news articles before opening of stock market, 385 news articles during the session, 184 news articles after closing of market. Results of mining of collected news contents and of comparison with stock price showed that positive/negative opinion of news contents had significant relation with stock price, and change of the price index of stocks could be better explained in case of applying news opinion by deriving in positive/negative ratio instead of judging between simplified positive and negative opinion. And in order to check whether news had an effect on fluctuation of stock price, or at least went ahead of fluctuation of stock price, in the results that change of stock price was compared only with news happening before opening of stock market, it was verified to be statistically significant as well. In addition, because news contained various type and information such as social, economic, and overseas news, and corporate earnings, the present condition of type of industry, market outlook, the present condition of market and so on, it was expected that influence on stock market or significance of the relation would be different according to the type of news, and therefore each type of news was compared with fluctuation of stock price, and the results showed that market condition, outlook, and overseas news was the most useful to explain fluctuation of news. On the contrary, news about individual company was not statistically significant, but opinion mining value showed tendency opposite to stock price, and the reason can be thought to be the appearance of promotional and planned news for preventing stock price from falling. Finally, multiple regression analysis and logistic regression analysis was carried out in order to derive function of investment decision making on the basis of relation between positive/negative opinion of news and stock price, and the results showed that regression equation using variable of market conditions, outlook, and overseas news before opening of stock market was statistically significant, and classification accuracy of logistic regression accuracy results was shown to be 70.0% in rise of stock price, 78.8% in fall of stock price, and 74.6% on average. This study first analyzed relation between news and stock price through analyzing and quantifying sensitivity of atypical news contents by using opinion mining among big data analysis techniques, and furthermore, proposed and verified smart investment decision making model that could systematically carry out opinion mining and derive and support investment information. This shows that news can be used as variable to predict the price index of stocks for investment, and it is expected the model can be used as real investment support system if it is implemented as system and verified in the future.

Construction of Consumer Confidence index based on Sentiment analysis using News articles (뉴스기사를 이용한 소비자의 경기심리지수 생성)

  • Song, Minchae;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.1-27
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    • 2017
  • It is known that the economic sentiment index and macroeconomic indicators are closely related because economic agent's judgment and forecast of the business conditions affect economic fluctuations. For this reason, consumer sentiment or confidence provides steady fodder for business and is treated as an important piece of economic information. In Korea, private consumption accounts and consumer sentiment index highly relevant for both, which is a very important economic indicator for evaluating and forecasting the domestic economic situation. However, despite offering relevant insights into private consumption and GDP, the traditional approach to measuring the consumer confidence based on the survey has several limits. One possible weakness is that it takes considerable time to research, collect, and aggregate the data. If certain urgent issues arise, timely information will not be announced until the end of each month. In addition, the survey only contains information derived from questionnaire items, which means it can be difficult to catch up to the direct effects of newly arising issues. The survey also faces potential declines in response rates and erroneous responses. Therefore, it is necessary to find a way to complement it. For this purpose, we construct and assess an index designed to measure consumer economic sentiment index using sentiment analysis. Unlike the survey-based measures, our index relies on textual analysis to extract sentiment from economic and financial news articles. In particular, text data such as news articles and SNS are timely and cover a wide range of issues; because such sources can quickly capture the economic impact of specific economic issues, they have great potential as economic indicators. There exist two main approaches to the automatic extraction of sentiment from a text, we apply the lexicon-based approach, using sentiment lexicon dictionaries of words annotated with the semantic orientations. In creating the sentiment lexicon dictionaries, we enter the semantic orientation of individual words manually, though we do not attempt a full linguistic analysis (one that involves analysis of word senses or argument structure); this is the limitation of our research and further work in that direction remains possible. In this study, we generate a time series index of economic sentiment in the news. The construction of the index consists of three broad steps: (1) Collecting a large corpus of economic news articles on the web, (2) Applying lexicon-based methods for sentiment analysis of each article to score the article in terms of sentiment orientation (positive, negative and neutral), and (3) Constructing an economic sentiment index of consumers by aggregating monthly time series for each sentiment word. In line with existing scholarly assessments of the relationship between the consumer confidence index and macroeconomic indicators, any new index should be assessed for its usefulness. We examine the new index's usefulness by comparing other economic indicators to the CSI. To check the usefulness of the newly index based on sentiment analysis, trend and cross - correlation analysis are carried out to analyze the relations and lagged structure. Finally, we analyze the forecasting power using the one step ahead of out of sample prediction. As a result, the news sentiment index correlates strongly with related contemporaneous key indicators in almost all experiments. We also find that news sentiment shocks predict future economic activity in most cases. In almost all experiments, the news sentiment index strongly correlates with related contemporaneous key indicators. Furthermore, in most cases, news sentiment shocks predict future economic activity; in head-to-head comparisons, the news sentiment measures outperform survey-based sentiment index as CSI. Policy makers want to understand consumer or public opinions about existing or proposed policies. Such opinions enable relevant government decision-makers to respond quickly to monitor various web media, SNS, or news articles. Textual data, such as news articles and social networks (Twitter, Facebook and blogs) are generated at high-speeds and cover a wide range of issues; because such sources can quickly capture the economic impact of specific economic issues, they have great potential as economic indicators. Although research using unstructured data in economic analysis is in its early stages, but the utilization of data is expected to greatly increase once its usefulness is confirmed.

A study on the liquor package design of international competitive advantage - Focused on Soju and Sake - (국제 경쟁력을 위한 술 포장디자인 연구 - 국내소주 및 일본 Sake 중심으로 -)

  • 장욱선
    • Archives of design research
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.151-160
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    • 2003
  • Packages have been used for a wide variety of purposes, for protection, for display, for transportation of goods, or for keeping personal belongings. According to the demands of society and the times, liquor packages have been specialized and have appeared in almost every shape and size without restriction to cine particular type of material. In spite of its rapid development and wide application in our society, liquor package design has rarely been considered as a subject of comprehensive study. Majoring in package design, I have become especially interested in the area of liquor package design. I would like to explore liquor package design from several aspects. With the advent of new market and the rise of a new consumer society, advertising and mass media have expanded rapidly. While convenience of use is not a major issue, serving size certainly are quality, appeal of heritage and health concerns. Heritage is a major consumer appeal in Whisky, Beer, Wine and spirits. Designers have drawn heavily on the tradition of alcoholic products, have used type and graphics to create the illusion of heritage for new products. A sidelight to the heritage aspect of spirits package is the evolution of outer boxes for international liquors. International liquors package design illustrated the past and current themes. The design is contemporary and spare. Colored panels correlated to the liquor flavor used on clean white, black, gold boxes. While this research does not deny the impact of structural innovation and convenience package design , it does deny the existence of a graphic plateau. It is assumed therefore, that development in technology can facilitate communication between East and West. This can be accomplished because as containers of products are used in social setting, their form will gradually apply strong influence to the need for economical, easily handled, easily utilized packaging. Typically, ethnic package designs are those packages containing products which are prepared and marketed to a category of people who are prepared and marketed to a culture traits. They are liquor products sold in the metropolitan New York area which are marketed specially to Asians, Hispanics, or Eurpean population. These cultural groups share numerous traits including religion, language, dietary habits and traditional drinking styles. Therefore, the products which are familiar or common in their native countries are often imported or marketed there to serve them. These packages and products are frequently found on the shelves of supermarkets in predominantly ethnic areas. That is Korea, Japan if packaging is correctly design it would appeal to the American market. My research is that oriental beverage -Soju is good example of this precept. Assumedly, there must be a degree of subjectivity since it is a mean in which the consumers can relate to its advertising. This degree to relate and identify is the degree to which the package will be remembered and purchased. Subjectivity is intimately related to purchases since there is no such thing as a rational purchase in a society that operates on mass consumption. It is essential that packages become more personal human, entertaining, and more like advertising in order to maximize merchandising potential.

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Factors Affecting South Korean Disaster Officials' Readiness to Facilitate Public Participation in Disaster Management Using Smart Technologies (재난안전 실무자의 스마트 재난관리 준비도에 영향을 미치는 요인에 관한 실증 연구 - 스마트 기술을 활용한 재난관리 민간참여 중심으로 -)

  • Lyu, Hyeon-Suk;Kim, Hak-Kyong
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.62
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    • pp.35-63
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    • 2020
  • As the frequency and intensity of catastrophic disasters increase, there is widespread public sentiment that government capacity for disaster response and recovery is fundamentally limited, and that the involvement of civil society and the private sector is ever more vital. That is, in order to strengthen national disaster response capacity, governments need to build disaster systems that are more participatory and function through the channels of civil society, rather than continuing themselves to bear sole responsibility for these "wicked problems." With the advancement of smart mobile technology and social media, government and society as a whole have been called upon to apply these new information and communication technologies to address the current shortcomings of government-led disaster management. As illustrated in such catastrophic disasters as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan, the 2010 Haitian earthquake, and Hurricane Katrina in the United States in 2005, the realization of participatory potential of smart technologies for better disaster response has enabled citizen participation via new smart technologies during disasters and resulted in positive impact on the management of such disasters. In this context, this study focuses on the South Korean context, and aims to analyze Korean government officials' readiness for public participation using smart technologies. On this basis, it aims to offer policy suggestions aimed at promoting smart technology-enabled citizen participation. For this purpose, it proposes a particular model, termed SMART (System, Motivation, Ability, Response, and Technology).

Measuring the Third-Person Effects of Public Opinion Polls: Focusing On Online Polls (여론조사보도에 대한 제3자효과 검증: 온라인 여론조사를 주목하며)

  • Kim, Sung-Tae;Willnat, Las;Weaver, David
    • Korean journal of communication and information
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    • v.32
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    • pp.49-73
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    • 2006
  • During the past decades, public opinion polls have become an ubiquitous tool for probing the complexity of people's beliefs and attitudes on a wide variety of issues. Especially since the late 1970s, the use of polls by news organizations has increased dramatically. Along with the proliferation of traditional polls, in the past few years pollsters and news organizations have come to recognize the advantages of online polls. Increasingly there has been more effort to take the pulse of the public through the Internet. With the Internet's rapid growth during the past years, advocates of online polling often emphasize the relative advantages over traditional polls. Researchers from Harris Black International Ltd., for example, argue that "Internet polling is less expensive and faster and offers higher response rates than telephone surveys." Moreover, since many of the newer online polls draw respondents from large databases of registered Internet users, results of online polls have become more balanced. A series of Harris Black online polls conducted during the 1998 gubernatorial and senatorial elections, for example, has accurately projected the winners in 21 of the 22 races it tracked. Many researchers, however, severely criticize online polls for not being representative of the larger population. Despite the often enormous number of participants, Internet users who participate in online polls tend to be younger, better educated and more affluent than the general population. As Traugott pointed out, the people polled in Internet surveys are a "self selected" group, and thus "have volunteered to be part of the test sample, which could mean they are more comfortable with technology, more informed about news and events ... than Americans who aren't online." The fact that users of online polls are self selected and demographically very different from Americans who have no access to the Internet is likely to influence the estimates of what the majority of people think about social or political issues. One of the goals of this study is therefore to analyze whether people perceive traditional and online public opinion polls differently. While most people might not differentiate sufficiently between traditional random sample polls and non representative online polls, some audiences might perceive online polls as more useful and representative. Since most online polls allow some form of direct participation, mostly in the form of an instant vote by mouse click, and often present their findings based on huge numbers of respondents, consumers of these polls might perceive them as more accurate, representative or reliable than traditional random sample polls. If that is true, perceptions of public opinion in society could be significantly distorted for those who rely on or participate in online polls. In addition to investigating how people perceive random sample and online polls, this study focuses on the perceived impact of public opinion polls. Similar to these past studies, which focused on how public opinion polls can influence the perception of mass opinion, this study will analyze how people perceive the effects of polls on themselves and other people. This interest springs from prior studies of the "third person effect," which have found that people often tend to perceive that persuasive communications exert a stronger influence on others than on themselves. While most studies concerned with the political effects of public opinion polls show that exit polls and early reporting of election returns have only weak or no effects on the outcome of election campaigns, some empirical findings suggest that exposure to polls can move people's opinions both toward and away from perceived majority opinion. Thus, if people indeed believe that polls influence others more than themselves, perceptions of majority opinion could be significantly altered because people might anticipate that others will react more strongly to poll results.

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