• Title/Summary/Keyword: Simulation Results

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Why Is the Rate of Poor Subjective Health Notably High in South Korea? The Importance of Managing Healthcare Needs (한국인은 왜 주관적 건강상태가 매우 나쁠까? 의료필요 관리의 중요성)

  • Woojin Chung
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.334-346
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    • 2024
  • Background: Research on the link between subjective health and unmet healthcare needs is limited. This study examines whether experiences of subjective healthcare needs and unmet needs are related to subjective health in South Korea, where the rate of poor subjective health is notably high. Methods: This analysis utilized data from the Korea Health Panel (2014-2018), incorporating 68,930 observations from 16,535 adults aged 19 or older. The dependent variable, subjective health, was dichotomized into poor (bad or very bad) and non-poor (fair, good, or very good) categories. The primary variables of interest were the experiences of subjective healthcare needs and unmet needs, while control variables included 14 socio-demographic, health, and functional characteristics. The study employed population proportion analysis and multivariable two-level binary logistic regression analysis for each gender, accounting for the complex sampling design. Results: In 2018, the rate of reporting poor health was 8.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 8.0%-9.5%) for men and 14.7% (95% CI, 13.8%-15.6%) for women. For both genders, compared to individuals whose healthcare needs were met, those without healthcare needs were less likely to report poor subjective health (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 0.58; 95% CI, 0.39-0.86 for men; AOR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.37-0.93 for women). Conversely, individuals whose healthcare needs were not met were more likely to report poor subjective health (AOR, 2.31; 95% CI, 2.01-2.65 for men; AOR, 2.19; 95% CI, 1.98-2.43 for women). A policy simulation indicated that reducing the experience of subjective healthcare needs would be approximately 5 times more effective in reducing poor subjective health than a policy focused on reducing the experience of unmet needs. Conclusion: South Korea must make significant efforts to reduce the deterioration of subjective health and promote appropriate healthcare utilization. To achieve this, a set of policies is recommended to address subjective healthcare needs. These policies should include (1) prompting individuals to proactively manage their own health, (2) providing primary healthcare similar to that in advanced countries, (3) ensuring the healthcare delivery system operates effectively, (4) decentralizing the healthcare management system, and (5) reducing the likelihood of people being misled into thinking they have a healthcare need.

Estimation of GARCH Models and Performance Analysis of Volatility Trading System using Support Vector Regression (Support Vector Regression을 이용한 GARCH 모형의 추정과 투자전략의 성과분석)

  • Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.107-122
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    • 2017
  • Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.

The Fabrication and Characteristic for Narrow-band Pass Color-filter Deposited by Ti3O5/SiO2 Multilayer (Ti3O5/SiO2 다층박막를 이용한 협대역 칼라투과필터 제작 및 특성연구)

  • Park, Moon-Chan;Ko, Kyun-Chae;Lee, Wha-Ja
    • Journal of Korean Ophthalmic Optics Society
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.357-362
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    • 2011
  • Purpose: The narrow-band pass color-filters with a 500 nm central wavelength and 12 nm FWHM using $Ti_3O_5/SiO_2$ mutilayer were fabricated, and their characteristics and structures were studied. Methods: the optical constants, n and k, of the $Ti_3O_5$ and $SiO_2$ thin films were obtained from the transmittances of their thin film. The narrow-band pass color-filters were designed with these optical constants and the AR coating of the filter was also designed. $Ti_3O_5/SiO_2$ multilayer filters were made by electron beam evaporation apparatus and the transmittaces of the filters were measured by spectrophotometer. the number of layers and the thicknesses of filters were calculated from the cross section of filters by SEM image and the composition of filters was analysed by XPS analysis. Results: The optimization of AR coating for the narrow-band pass color-filter was [air$|SiO_2(90)|Ti_3O_5(36)|SiO_2(5)|Ti_3O_5(73)|SiO_2(30)|Ti_3O_5(15)|$ glass], and the optimization of filter layer for the color filter was [air$|SiO_2(192)|Ti_3O_5(64)|SiO_2(102)|Ti_3O_5(66)|SiO_2(112)|Ti_3O_5(74)|SiO_2(120)|Ti_3O_5(68)|SiO_2(123)|Ti_3O_5(80)|SiO_2(109)|Ti_3O_5(70)|SiO_2(105)|Ti_3O_5(62)|SiO_2(99)|Ti_3O_5(63)|SiO_2(98)|Ti_3O_5(51)|SiO_2(60)|Ti_3O_5(42)|SiO_2(113)|Ti_3O_5(88)|SiO_2(116)|Ti_3O_5(68)|SiO_2(89)|Ti_3O_5(49)|SiO_2(77)|Ti_3O_5(48)|SiO_2(84)|Ti_3O_5(51)|SiO_2(85)|Ti_3O_5(48)|SiO_2(59)|Ti_3O_5(34)|SiO_2(71)|Ti_3O_5(44)|SiO_2(65)|Ti_3O_5(45)|SiO_2(81)|Ti_3O_5(52)|SiO_2(88)|$ glass]. It was known that the color-filters fabricated by the simulation data were composed of 41 layers by SEM image and the top layer of filters was $SiO_2$ layer and the filters were composed of $SiO_2$/$Ti_3O_5$ multilayer by XPS analysis. It was also known that the mixed thin film of TiO2 and $Ti_3O_5$ was made during the deposition of the $Ti_3O_5$ material. Conclusions: The narrow-band pass color-filters with a 500 nm central wavelength and 12 nm FWHM using $Ti_3O_5/SiO_2$ mutilayer of 41 layer were fabricated, and it was known that the mixed form of TiO2 and $Ti_3O_5$ thin film was made during the deposition of the $Ti_3O_5$ material.

Usefulness of Non-coplanar Helical Tomotherapy Using Variable Axis Baseplate (Variable Axis Baseplate를 이용한 Non-coplanar 토모테라피의 유용성)

  • Ha, Jin-Sook;Chung, Yoon-Sun;Lee, Ik-Jae;Shin, Dong-Bong;Kim, Jong-Dae;Kim, Sei-Joon;Jeon, Mi-Jin;Cho, Yoon-Jin;Kim, Ki-Kwang;Lee, Seul-Bee
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.31-39
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    • 2011
  • Purpose: Helical Tomotherapy allows only coplanar beam delivery because it does not allow couch rotation. We investigated a method to introduce non-coplanar beam by tilting a patient's head for Tomotherapy. The aim of this study was to compare intrafractional movement during Tomotherapy between coplanar and non-coplanar patient's setup. Materials and Methods: Helical Tomotherapy was used for treating eight patients with intracranial tumor. The subjects were divided into three groups: one group (coplanar) of 2 patients who lay on S-plate with supine position and wore thermoplastic mask for immobilizing the head, second group (non-coplanar) of 3 patients who lay on S-plate with supine position and whose head was tilted with Variable Axis Baseplate and wore thermoplastic mask, and third group (non-coplanar plus mouthpiece) of 3 patients whose head was tilted and wore a mouthpiece immobilization device and thermoplastic mask. The patients were treated with Tomotherapy after treatment planning with Tomotherapy Planning System. Megavoltage computed tomography (MVCT) was performed before and after treatment, and the intrafractional error was measured with lateral(X), longitudinal(Y), vertical(Z) direction movements and vector ($\sqrt{x^2+y^2+z^2}$) value for assessing overall movement. Results: Intrafractional error was compared among three groups by taking the error of MVCT taken after the treatment. As the correction values (X, Y, Z) between MVCT image taken after treatment and CT-simulation image are close to zero, the patient movement is small. When the mean values of movement of each direction for non-coplanar setup were compared with coplanar setup group, X-axis movement was decreased by 13%, but Y-axis and Z-axis movement were increased by 109% and 88%, respectively. Movements of Y-axis and Z-axis with non-coplanar setup were relatively greater than that of X-axis since a tilted head tended to slip down. The mean of X-axis movement of the group who used a mouthpiece was greater by 9.4% than the group who did not use, but the mean of Y-axis movement was lower by at least 64%, and the mean of Z-axis was lower by at least 67%, and the mean of Z-axis was lower by at least 67%, and the vector was lower by at least 59% with the use of a mouthpiece. Among these 8 patients, one patient whose tumor was located on left frontal lobe and left basal ganglia received reduced radiation dose of 38% in right eye, 23% in left eye, 30% in optic chiasm, 27% in brain stem, and 8% in normal brain with non-coplanar method. Conclusion: Tomotherapy only allows coplanar delivery of IMRT treatment. To complement this shortcoming, Tomotherapy can be used with non-coplanar method by artificially tilting the patient's head and using an oral immobilization instrument to minimize the movement of patient, when intracranial tumor locates near critical organs or has to be treated with high dose radiation.

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Evaluation of the Positional Uncertainty of a Liver Tumor using 4-Dimensional Computed Tomography and Gated Orthogonal Kilovolt Setup Images (사차원전산화단층촬영과 호흡연동 직각 Kilovolt 준비 영상을 이용한 간 종양의 움직임 분석)

  • Ju, Sang-Gyu;Hong, Chae-Seon;Park, Hee-Chul;Ahn, Jong-Ho;Shin, Eun-Hyuk;Shin, Jung-Suk;Kim, Jin-Sung;Han, Young-Yih;Lim, Do-Hoon;Choi, Doo-Ho
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.155-165
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: In order to evaluate the positional uncertainty of internal organs during radiation therapy for treatment of liver cancer, we measured differences in inter- and intra-fractional variation of the tumor position and tidal amplitude using 4-dimentional computed radiograph (DCT) images and gated orthogonal setup kilovolt (KV) images taken on every treatment using the on board imaging (OBI) and real time position management (RPM) system. Materials and Methods: Twenty consecutive patients who underwent 3-dimensional (3D) conformal radiation therapy for treatment of liver cancer participated in this study. All patients received a 4DCT simulation with an RT16 scanner and an RPM system. Lipiodol, which was updated near the target volume after transarterial chemoembolization or diaphragm was chosen as a surrogate for the evaluation of the position difference of internal organs. Two reference orthogonal (anterior and lateral) digital reconstructed radiograph (DRR) images were generated using CT image sets of 0% and 50% into the respiratory phases. The maximum tidal amplitude of the surrogate was measured from 3D conformal treatment planning. After setting the patient up with laser markings on the skin, orthogonal gated setup images at 50% into the respiratory phase were acquired at each treatment session with OBI and registered on reference DRR images by setting each beam center. Online inter-fractional variation was determined with the surrogate. After adjusting the patient setup error, orthogonal setup images at 0% and 50% into the respiratory phases were obtained and tidal amplitude of the surrogate was measured. Measured tidal amplitude was compared with data from 4DCT. For evaluation of intra-fractional variation, an orthogonal gated setup image at 50% into the respiratory phase was promptly acquired after treatment and compared with the same image taken just before treatment. In addition, a statistical analysis for the quantitative evaluation was performed. Results: Medians of inter-fractional variation for twenty patients were 0.00 cm (range, -0.50 to 0.90 cm), 0.00 cm (range, -2.40 to 1.60 cm), and 0.00 cm (range, -1.10 to 0.50 cm) in the X (transaxial), Y (superior-inferior), and Z (anterior-posterior) directions, respectively. Significant inter-fractional variations over 0.5 cm were observed in four patients. Min addition, the median tidal amplitude differences between 4DCTs and the gated orthogonal setup images were -0.05 cm (range, -0.83 to 0.60 cm), -0.15 cm (range, -2.58 to 1.18 cm), and -0.02 cm (range, -1.37 to 0.59 cm) in the X, Y, and Z directions, respectively. Large differences of over 1 cm were detected in 3 patients in the Y direction, while differences of more than 0.5 but less than 1 cm were observed in 5 patients in Y and Z directions. Median intra-fractional variation was 0.00 cm (range, -0.30 to 0.40 cm), -0.03 cm (range, -1.14 to 0.50 cm), 0.05 cm (range, -0.30 to 0.50 cm) in the X, Y, and Z directions, respectively. Significant intra-fractional variation of over 1 cm was observed in 2 patients in Y direction. Conclusion: Gated setup images provided a clear image quality for the detection of organ motion without a motion artifact. Significant intra- and inter-fractional variation and tidal amplitude differences between 4DCT and gated setup images were detected in some patients during the radiation treatment period, and therefore, should be considered when setting up the target margin. Monitoring of positional uncertainty and its adaptive feedback system can enhance the accuracy of treatments.

The Measurement of Sensitivity and Comparative Analysis of Simplified Quantitation Methods to Measure Dopamine Transporters Using [I-123]IPT Pharmacokinetic Computer Simulations ([I-123]IPT 약역학 컴퓨터시뮬레이션을 이용한 민감도 측정 및 간편화된 운반체 정량분석 방법들의 비교분석 연구)

  • Son, Hye-Kyung;Nha, Sang-Kyun;Lee, Hee-Kyung;Kim, Hee-Joung
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.19-29
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    • 1997
  • Recently, [I-123]IPT SPECT has been used for early diagnosis of Parkinson's patients(PP) by imaging dopamine transporters. The dynamic time activity curves in basal ganglia(BG) and occipital cortex(OCC) without blood samples were obtained for 2 hours. These data were then used to measure dopamine transporters by operationally defined ratio methods of (BG-OCC)/OCC at 2 hrs, binding potential $R_v=k_3/k_4$ using graphic method or $R_A$= (ABBG-ABOCC)/ABOCC for 2 hrs, where ABBG represents accumulated binding activity in basal ganglia(${\int}^{120min}_0$ BG(t)dt) and ABOCC represents accumulated binding activity in occipital cortex(${\int}^{120min}_0$ OCC(t)dt). The purpose of this study was to examine the IPT pharmacokinetics and investigate the usefulness of simplified methods of (BG-OCC)/OCC, $R_A$, and $R_v$ which are often assumed that these values reflect the true values of $k_3/k_4$. The rate constants $K_1,\;k_2\;k_3$ and $k_4$ to be used for simulations were derived using [I-123]IPT SPECT and aterialized blood data with a standard three compartmental model. The sensitivities and time activity curves in BG and OCC were computed by changing $K_l$ and $k_3$(only BG) for every 5min over 2 hours. The values (BG-OCC)/OCC, $R_A$, and $R_v$ were then computed from the time activity curves and the linear regression analysis was used to measure the accuracies of these methods. The late constants $K_l,\;k_2\;k_3\;k_4$ at BG and OCC were $1.26{\pm}5.41%,\;0.044{\pm}19.58%,\;0.031{\pm}24.36%,\;0.008{\pm}22.78%$ and $1.36{\pm}4.76%,\;0.170{\pm}6.89%,\;0.007{\pm}23.89%,\;0.007{\pm}45.09%$, respectively. The Sensitivities for ((${\Delta}S/S$)/(${\Delta}k_3/k_3$)) and ((${\Delta}S/S$)/(${\Delta}K_l/K_l$)) at 30min and 120min were measured as (0.19, 0.50) and (0.61, 0,23), respectively. The correlation coefficients and slopes of ((BG-OCC)/OCC, $R_A$, and $R_v$) with $k_3/k_4$ were (0.98, 1.00, 0.99) and (1.76, 0.47, 1.25), respectively. These simulation results indicate that a late [I-123]IPT SPECT image may represent the distribution of the dopamine transporters. Good correlations were shown between (3G-OCC)/OCC, $R_A$ or $R_v$ and true $k_3/k_4$, although the slopes between them were not unity. Pharmacokinetic computer simulations may be a very useful technique in studying dopamine transporter systems.

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Radiation Therapy Using M3 Wax Bolus in Patients with Malignant Scalp Tumors (악성 두피 종양(Scalp) 환자의 M3 Wax Bolus를 이용한 방사선치료)

  • Kwon, Da Eun;Hwang, Ji Hye;Park, In Seo;Yang, Jun Cheol;Kim, Su Jin;You, Ah Young;Won, Young Jinn;Kwon, Kyung Tae
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.75-81
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: Helmet type bolus for 3D printer is being manufactured because of the disadvantages of Bolus materials when photon beam is used for the treatment of scalp malignancy. However, PLA, which is a used material, has a higher density than a tissue equivalent material and inconveniences occur when the patient wears PLA. In this study, we try to treat malignant scalp tumors by using M3 wax helmet with 3D printer. Methods and materials: For the modeling of the helmet type M3 wax, the head phantom was photographed by CT, which was acquired with a DICOM file. The part for helmet on the scalp was made with Helmet contour. The M3 Wax helmet was made by dissolving paraffin wax, mixing magnesium oxide and calcium carbonate, solidifying it in a PLA 3D helmet, and then eliminated PLA 3D Helmet of the surface. The treatment plan was based on Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT) of 10 Portals, and the therapeutic dose was 200 cGy, using Analytical Anisotropic Algorithm (AAA) of Eclipse. Then, the dose was verified by using EBT3 film and Mosfet (Metal Oxide Semiconductor Field Effect Transistor: USA), and the IMRT plan was measured 3 times in 3 parts by reproducing the phantom of the head human model under the same condition with the CT simulation room. Results: The Hounsfield unit (HU) of the bolus measured by CT was $52{\pm}37.1$. The dose of TPS was 186.6 cGy, 193.2 cGy and 190.6 cGy at the M3 Wax bolus measurement points of A, B and C, and the dose measured three times at Mostet was $179.66{\pm}2.62cGy$, $184.33{\pm}1.24cGy$ and $195.33{\pm}1.69cGy$. And the error rates were -3.71 %, -4.59 %, and 2.48 %. The dose measured with EBT3 film was $182.00{\pm}1.63cGy$, $193.66{\pm}2.05cGy$ and $196{\pm}2.16cGy$. The error rates were -2.46 %, 0.23 % and 2.83 %. Conclusions: The thickness of the M3 wax bolus was 2 cm, which could help the treatment plan to be established by easily lowering the dose of the brain part. The maximum error rate of the scalp surface dose was measured within 5 % and generally within 3 %, even in the A, B, C measurements of dosimeters of EBT3 film and Mosfet in the treatment dose verification. The making period of M3 wax bolus is shorter, cheaper than that of 3D printer, can be reused and is very useful for the treatment of scalp malignancies as human tissue equivalent material. Therefore, we think that the use of casting type M3 wax bolus, which will complement the making period and cost of high capacity Bolus and Compensator in 3D printer, will increase later.