• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.38 no.5
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• pp.125-139
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• 1996

This study was performed to provide the design method for soil structure which guarantees proper safety with uncertainty of soil parameters. For this purpose, the effect of uncertainty of soil parameters for slope stability was analyzed by Bishop's simplified method and Monte Carlo simulation(MC). And reliability analysis program, RESFEM, was developed by combining elastic theory, MC, FEM, SFEM, and reliability, which can consider uncertainty of soil parameters. For factor of safety(FS) 1.0 and 1.2 by Bishop's simplified method, the probability of failure(Pf) was analyzed with varying coefficient of variation(c.o.v.) of soil parameters. The Pf increased as c.o.v. of soil parameters increased. This implies that FS is not the absolute index of slope safety, and even if FS is same, it has different Pf according to c.o.v. of soil parameters. The RESFEM was able to express the Pf at each element in slope quantitatively according to uncertainty of soil parameters. The variation of Pf with uncertainty of soil parameters was analyzed by RESFEM, and it was shown that the Pf increased as the c.o.v. of soil parameters increased.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.104-118
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• 2003

It has been criticized that conventional human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies for probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) have been focused on the quantification of human error probability (HEP) without detailed analysis of human cognitive processes such as situation assessment or decision-making which are crticial to successful response to emergency situations. This paper introduces a new human reliability analysis (HRA) methodology, AGAPE-ET (A guidance And Procedure for Human Error Analysis for Emergency Tasks), focused on the qualitative error analysis of emergency tasks from the viewpoint of the performance of human cognitive function. The AGAPE-ET method is based on the simplified cognitive model and a taxonomy of influencing factors. By each cognitive function, error causes or error-likely situations have been identified considering the characteristics of the performance of each cognitive function and influencing mechanism of PIFs on the cognitive function. Then, overall human error analysis process is designed considering the cognitive demand of the required task. The application to an emergency task shows that the proposed method is useful to identify task vulnerabilities associated with the performance of emergency tasks.

• Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.193-204
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• 2019

Reliability analyses of sixteen domestic design cases of open cell caisson breakwaters against circular sliding failure were conducted in this study. For the reliability analyses, uncertainties of parameters of soils, mound, and concrete cap were assessed. Bishop simplified method was used to obtain load and resistance of open cell caisson breakwater for randomly generated open cell caisson breakwater. Sufficient number of Monte Carlo simulations were conducted for randomly generated open cell caisson breakwaters, and statistical analysis was conducted on loads and resistances collected from the large number of Monte Carlo simulations. Probability of failure produced from Monte Carlo simulation has a nonconvergence issue for very low probability of failure; therefore, First-Order Reliability Method (FORM) was conducted using the statistical characteristics of loads and resistances of open cell caisson breakwaters. In addition, effects of safety factor, uncertainties of load and resistance, and correlation between load and resistance on reliability of open cell caisson breakwaters against circular sliding failure were examined.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.31 no.5
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• pp.360-373
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• 2021

Many sources of uncertainty exist in geotechnical analysis ranging from the material parameters to the sampling and testing techniques. The conventional deterministic stability analysis of a plane failure in rock slope produce a safety factor but not a probability of failure or reliability index. In the conventional slope stability analysis by evaluating the ground uncertainty as an overall safety factor, it is difficult to evaluate the stability of the realistic rock slope in detail. This paper reviews some established probabilistic analysis techniques, such as the MCS, FOSM, PEM, Taylor Series as applied to plane failure of rock slopes in detail. While the Monte - Carlo methods leads to the most accurate calculation of the probability of safety, this method is too time consuming. Therefore, the simplified probability methods could be alternatives to the MCS. In this study, using these simple probability methods, the failure probability estimation of a plane failure in rock slope is presented.

• Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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• 1998.04a
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• pp.123-130
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• 1998

The probability of unseating failure of the bridge spans under earthquakes is investigated. Seismic excitations are simulated as nonstationary processes by combining a stationary process and an intensity function. For computational convenience, a simplified single-degree-of-freedom model is adopted, which retains the dynamic characteristics of the original brige motion in concern. The time history analysis for the developed single degree-of-freedom model are carried out to evaluate the response processes, and the probabilistic characteristics of response displacements are evaluated. The reliability analysis of the bridge against the unseating failure is performed with the statistical information of the maximum displacements of responses.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.493-506
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• 2020

In this paper, a new opposition based charged system search (CSS) is proposed to be used as a parameter identification of highly nonlinear semi-active magneto-rheological damper. By replacing the opposition particles with current solutions, the mentioned strategy is used to enhance the search space and to increase the exploration of CSS. To investigate the effectiveness of the proposed method, a nonlinear modified Bouc-Wen model of MR damper is considered to find its parameters, and compare it with those achieved from experimental model of MR damper. Also, by exploiting the sensitivity analysis and using the importance vector, the less importance parameters in the Bouc-Wen model are eliminated which makes the MR damper model simpler. Results demonstrate the new proposed algorithm (OBLCSS) has a high ability to tackle highly nonlinear problems. Based on the results of the α importance vector, a simplified model is proposed and its parameters are identified by using the presented OBLCSS algorithm. The simplified proposed model also has a high capability of estimating damper responses.

• Journal of Ship and Ocean Technology
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.45-56
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• 2008

Recently, International Association Classification Societies (IACS) has adopted the Common Structural Rules (CSR) for Bulk Carriers and Tankers, which specifies the requirement associated with the ultimate strength of hull girder structure. The theoretical background and the results of verification study are neither well summarized nor released. Furthermore, the requirement is not a form of deterministic formula but a form of program in which source code is not disclosed. The reliability of the non-linear structural analysis program is verified through the comparison with the results of the analysis and the model test. Then, the reliability of the ultimate strength requirement in CSR is checked by comparing with the results of rigorous non-linear analysis.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.49 no.2
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• pp.203-223
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• 2014

The extensive use of prestressed reinforced concrete (PSC) highway bridges in marine environment drastically increases the sensitivity to both fatigue-and corrosion-induced damage of their critical structural components during their service lives. Within this scenario, an integrated method that is capable of evaluating the fatigue reliability, identifying a condition-based maintenance, and predicting the remaining service life of its critical components is therefore needed. To accomplish this goal, a procedure for fatigue reliability prediction of PSC highway bridges is proposed in the present study. Vehicle-bridge coupling vibration analysis is performed for obtaining the equivalent moment ranges of critical section of bridges under typical fatigue truck models. Three-dimensional nonlinear mathematical models of fatigue trucks are simplified as an eleven-degree-of-freedom system. Road surface roughness is simulated as zero-mean stationary Gaussian random processes using the trigonometric series method. The time-dependent stress-concentration factors of reinforcing bars and prestressing tendons are accounted for more accurate stress ranges determination. The limit state functions are constructed according to the Miner's linear damage rule, the time-dependent S-N curves of prestressing tendons and the site-specific stress cycle prediction. The effectiveness of the methodology framework is demonstrated to a T-type simple supported multi-girder bridge for fatigue reliability evaluation.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.164-169
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• 2006

A systematic methodology has been proposed to establish a reliable design of water pump system. A simplified steady-state dynamic model of water pump system has been developed to study the response of water pump system to the dynamic load mainly due to the run-out and unbalance. Design modifications are needed to strengthen the structural integrity of existing designs. Increasing the natural frequency of system is pursued to prevent a resonance from occurring in the engine excitation range. A computational reliability methodology combined with finite element analysis is used to identify the most significant factor affecting the system performance. This method considered influence of design control parameters for the performance of design. By including control factors to the system model in a systematic way, more reliable design is expected.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.59 no.5
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• pp.853-866
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• 2016

This paper examines a methodology for computing the probability of structural failure of reinforced concrete beams subjected to fire. The significant load variables considered are dead load, sustained live load and fire temperature. Resistance is expressed in terms of moment capacity with random variables taken as yield strength of steel, concrete class (or grade of concrete), beam width and depth. The flexural capacity is determined based on the design equations recommended in Indian standard IS456:2000. Simplified method named $500^{\circ}C$ isotherm method detailed in Eurocode 2 is incorporated for fire design. A transient thermal analysis is conducted using finite element software ANSYS$^{(R)}$ Release15. Reliability is evaluated from the initial state to 4h of fire exposure based on the first order reliability method (FORM). A procedure is coded in MATLAB for finding the reliability index. This procedure is validated with available literature. The effect of various parameters like effective cover, yield strength of steel, grade of concrete, distribution of reinforcement bars and aggregate type on reliability indices are studied. Parameters like effective cover of concrete, yield strength of steel has a significant effect on reliability of beams. Different failure modes like limit state of flexure and limit state of shear are checked.