• Title/Summary/Keyword: Short-Term Development

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Development of Predictive Models for Rights Issues Using Financial Analysis Indices and Decision Tree Technique (경영분석지표와 의사결정나무기법을 이용한 유상증자 예측모형 개발)

  • Kim, Myeong-Kyun;Cho, Yoonho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.59-77
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    • 2012
  • This study focuses on predicting which firms will increase capital by issuing new stocks in the near future. Many stakeholders, including banks, credit rating agencies and investors, performs a variety of analyses for firms' growth, profitability, stability, activity, productivity, etc., and regularly report the firms' financial analysis indices. In the paper, we develop predictive models for rights issues using these financial analysis indices and data mining techniques. This study approaches to building the predictive models from the perspective of two different analyses. The first is the analysis period. We divide the analysis period into before and after the IMF financial crisis, and examine whether there is the difference between the two periods. The second is the prediction time. In order to predict when firms increase capital by issuing new stocks, the prediction time is categorized as one year, two years and three years later. Therefore Total six prediction models are developed and analyzed. In this paper, we employ the decision tree technique to build the prediction models for rights issues. The decision tree is the most widely used prediction method which builds decision trees to label or categorize cases into a set of known classes. In contrast to neural networks, logistic regression and SVM, decision tree techniques are well suited for high-dimensional applications and have strong explanation capabilities. There are well-known decision tree induction algorithms such as CHAID, CART, QUEST, C5.0, etc. Among them, we use C5.0 algorithm which is the most recently developed algorithm and yields performance better than other algorithms. We obtained data for the rights issue and financial analysis from TS2000 of Korea Listed Companies Association. A record of financial analysis data is consisted of 89 variables which include 9 growth indices, 30 profitability indices, 23 stability indices, 6 activity indices and 8 productivity indices. For the model building and test, we used 10,925 financial analysis data of total 658 listed firms. PASW Modeler 13 was used to build C5.0 decision trees for the six prediction models. Total 84 variables among financial analysis data are selected as the input variables of each model, and the rights issue status (issued or not issued) is defined as the output variable. To develop prediction models using C5.0 node (Node Options: Output type = Rule set, Use boosting = false, Cross-validate = false, Mode = Simple, Favor = Generality), we used 60% of data for model building and 40% of data for model test. The results of experimental analysis show that the prediction accuracies of data after the IMF financial crisis (59.04% to 60.43%) are about 10 percent higher than ones before IMF financial crisis (68.78% to 71.41%). These results indicate that since the IMF financial crisis, the reliability of financial analysis indices has increased and the firm intention of rights issue has been more obvious. The experiment results also show that the stability-related indices have a major impact on conducting rights issue in the case of short-term prediction. On the other hand, the long-term prediction of conducting rights issue is affected by financial analysis indices on profitability, stability, activity and productivity. All the prediction models include the industry code as one of significant variables. This means that companies in different types of industries show their different types of patterns for rights issue. We conclude that it is desirable for stakeholders to take into account stability-related indices and more various financial analysis indices for short-term prediction and long-term prediction, respectively. The current study has several limitations. First, we need to compare the differences in accuracy by using different data mining techniques such as neural networks, logistic regression and SVM. Second, we are required to develop and to evaluate new prediction models including variables which research in the theory of capital structure has mentioned about the relevance to rights issue.

Long-term Effects of Change in Family Structure On Achievement During Transition to Adulthood : Focusing on the effect of parental divorce/death on health condition, depression and educational attainment (가족구조의 변화가 성인이행기 발달에 미치는 영향 : 주관적 건강상태, 우울, 교육성취를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Yeonwoo
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.225-246
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    • 2010
  • The family environment children are exposed to growing up greatly influences their future potential and achievements. Previous findings show that changes in family structure during childhood, particularly those resulting from divorce or death, cause lasting negative consequence that affect the child physically, psychologically, economically, and socially. Unfortunately, single-parent households are becoming increasingly common in Korea, nearly doubling to more than a million cases in the last two decades. Existing domestic and international studies of this area tend to focus on the short-term effects of growing up in a single-parent household. In addition, these studies group their samples in ways that result in findings that may be too broad or are not necessarily an accurate representation of the subjects. This study attempts to address some of these shortcomings by focusing on the long-term effects of how changes in family structure early in children's lives affect achievement during their transition to adulthood. In addition, it takes into account the development cycle the child is in at the time of family restructuring, and what kind of long-term effects result from that. In this analysis, we find that there are several cases of statistically significantly differences in domain achievement depending on the developmental stage the child was in when the parental divorce or death occurred. The findings indicate that changes in family structure during the infant/toddler period influence health condition and depression, while changes in family structure during middle-childhood and adolescence do not. Meanwhile, changes in family structure during any point in the developmental stages have negative effects on educational attainment, with the severity of these negative effects depending on when the family changes occur. The negative effect on educational attainment is most prominent when a change in family structure occurs during the infant/toddler period, followed by adolescence, then middle-childhood.

Problems and Improvement Measures of Private Consulting Firms Working on Rural Area Development (농촌지역개발 민간컨설팅회사의 실태와 개선방안)

  • Kim, Jung Tae
    • Journal of Agricultural Extension & Community Development
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.1-28
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    • 2014
  • Private consulting firms that are currently participating in rural area development projects with a bottom-up approach are involved in nearly all areas of rural area development, and the policy environment that emphasizes the bottom-up approach will further expand their participation. Reviews of private consulting firms, which started out with high expectations in the beginning, are now becoming rather negative. Expertise is the key issue in the controversy over private consulting firms, and the analysis tends to limit the causes of the problems within firms. This study was conducted on the premise that the fixation on cause and structure results in policy issues in the promotion process. That is because the government authorities are responsible for managing and supervising the implementation of policies, not developing the policies. The current issues with consulting firms emerged because of the hasty implementation of private consulting through the government policy trend without sufficient consideration, as well as the policy environment that demanded short-term outcomes even though the purpose of bottom-up rural area development lies in the ideology of endogenous development focused on the changes in residents' perceptions. Research was conducted to determine how the problems of private consulting firms that emerged and were addressed in this context influenced the consulting market, using current data and based on the firms' business performance. In analyzing the types, firms were divided into three groups: top performers including market leaders (9), excellent performers (36), and average performers (34). An analysis of the correlation between the business performance of each type and managerial resources such as each firm's expertise revealed that there was only a correlation between human resources and regional development in excellent performers, and none was found with the other types. These results imply that external factors other than a firm's capabilities (e.g., expertise) play a significant role in the standards of selecting private consulting firms. Thus, government authorities must reflect on their error of hastily adopting private consulting firms without sufficient consideration and must urgently establish response measures.

Effects of Light Quality Using LEDs on Expression Patterns in Brassica rapa Seedlings (LED 광원의 다양한 광질이 배추 유묘의 유전자 발현에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Jin A;Lee, Yeon-Hee;Hong, Joon Ki;Hong, Sung-Chang;Lee, Soo In;Choi, Su Gil;Moon, Yi-Seul;Koo, Bon-Sung
    • Horticultural Science & Technology
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.607-616
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    • 2013
  • Light with two faces, beneficial and harmful effects is an important signal for every living cell. Optimal adaptation to light environment enhances the fitness of an organism and survival in nature. Understandings of light quality and plant growth provide with the economical guides for artificial light sources like LEDs. Compared with those under white light, the 1 week seedlings of Chinese cabbage (Brassica rapa) under monochromic red and blue light showed normal development and growth. In contrast to extremely long and etiolated hypocotyls of the seedlings under dark, those under far-red etiolated were extremely short. Based on the microarray analysis, blue light induced the vigorous development and growth and two fold changes of transcripts than red light condition. To have insight of gene products under different light qualities conditions, GO term enrichments were calculated and each gene according to their GO terms were categorized. The blue and red lights affected the expressions of genes related to biological process. Especially, the genes related to metabolic process and developmental process and plastid and chloroplast in the cellular component category were induced under blue light. This study provided the molecular biological evidence for various light qualities on the growing process of B. rapa.

Fundamental Rights Reflected by the Legislation Regarding Radiation and Nuclear Power (방사선 및 원자력 관련 법제가 반영하는 기본권)

  • Han, Eun Ok;Lee, Jae Seong;Cho, Hong Jea
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.15-29
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    • 2016
  • Research background: Despite the visible growth in radiation usage and nuclear power development, the analysis of their relationship with fundamental rights, a subject of public concern regarding issues including the right to health, environmental rights, safety rights, the right to know, the right to development, and the right to life, is currently non-existent. Methods: By examining various fundamental rights in the context of positive laws regarding radiation and nuclear power in an idealistic perspective that guarantees the maximum degree of rights, this paper aims to propose legislative supplements that will lead to improvements in quality of life. Result and discussion: In the South Korean Constitution, radiation and nuclear power is a subject incorporating several rights, including at least 12 clauses that are directly related to fundamental rights; these constitutional rights are manifested in the various clauses of the 14 positive laws regarding radiation and nuclear power. The question on the relative importance of each fundamental right as reflected in these positive laws- whether the right to life should be prioritized or considered equal in weight to the right to health, environmental rights, the right to know, and safety rights- requires careful deliberation and is difficult to humanly resolve in the short term. Conclusion: Making policy that expands the usage of radiation and nuclear power while simultaneously preventing their associated risks is an important task for the Republic of Korea, and a proper value judgment is necessary to find a balance in its associated rights.

Characteristics of Ocean Environment Before and After Coastal Upwelling in the Southeastern Part of Korean Peninsula Using an In-situ and Multi-Satellite Data (다중위성 및 현장관측을 이용한 동해남부 연안용승 발생 전후의 해양환경 특성)

  • Kim, Sang-Woo;Go, Woo-Jin;Kim, Seong-Soo;Jeong, Hee-Dong;Yamada, Keiko
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.345-352
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    • 2010
  • The objective of this paper is to explore the short-term variability of water temperature and chlorophyll a (Chl-a) derived from in-situ and satellite data (NOAA, Sea WiFS and QuikScat) in the upwelling region of the southeastern part of Korean Peninsula in June and August, 2007. Particularly we focused on the spatial variability of sea surface temperature(SST) and Chl-a in the East Korean Warm Current region. In the results of the in-situ data, the peaks of Chl-a in june was shown at a depth of 50m The peaks of Chl-a in August was shown at a depth of 10m at the stations 4 and 5 near the land, and a depth of 30m at the other stations. The Chl-a concentrations in August were also lower than those in june except for station 5. As a result, the peaks of Chl-a in August occurred at a depth of 20~40 m shallower than those of Chl-a in june. This indicates that the nutrient-rich water within the mixed layer depth may be immediately supplied by the coastal upwelling, which is due to the southerly component of wind. The relationship between SST and Chl-a showed a negative correlation, and the high concentration of Chl-a occurred in the cold water area. The southerly wind and the East Korean Warm Current influenced a remarkable offshore movement of the cold water and Chl-a near the coastal area.

SUPPLY-DEMAND, COMMERCIAL DISTRIBUTION AND TRANSACTION OF THE CULTURED TUNA IN JAPAN - EMPHASIZING ON THE GLOBAL EXPANSION OF THE TUNA-FARMING BUSINESS -

  • Yamamoto, Naotoshi;Kameda, Kazuhiko;Nishida, Akari;Kitano, Shinichi
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.87-114
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    • 2008
  • The cultured tuna production which has suddenly expanded at the short time and the demand for it attract attention. Farming mode, distribution transactions, change of the market (domestic and international) and the price trend are reviewed from the Japan's position which is the biggest consuming country. This paper tries to describe the current status of the food system related to the cultured tuna. Japanese government began the development of the tuna culture technology in 1970. It was by the Fisheries Agency's project. Kinki University which is the large scale private university in Japan participated in the project. After that, 32 years have passed. Kinki University established the full farming of the bluefin tuna in August, 2002. On the other hand, in 1974, one Japanese private enterprise began its tuna farming business in Canada. Kinki University gave this company technical cooperation. Also, in the early stages of the 90s, as for the policy of the overseas fishery cooperation foundation, it supported the tuna farming business in Australia. It is very clear to understand that the long-term technological-development has supported the take-off scene of the tuna culture business not only in foreign countries but also in Japan. The total shipment scale of the cultured tuna expanded very much within about 10 recent years. However, the decrease of the wild tuna catch, the reinforcement of the fisheries regulation and the tuna body to dwarf are remarkable now. Under the condition as the mentioned above, Japan's tuna consumption, especially, in the market at the fatty meat of tuna of the cultured tuna is building up firm status. At present, the Mediterranean Sea coastal countries, Australia, Mexico and Japan have the tuna farming sites. Australia farms the southern bluefin tuna. The others do the bluefin tuna. About for 3 years, Japan farms the juvenile of the tuna. The global production areas are as follows. 8 coastal countries of the Mediterranean Sea; 18,000 tons (61 % of the cultured tuna quantity in foreign countries), Mexico; 4,500 ton (15%), Australia; 7,000 tons (24%). In 2003, Japan has 32 managements and 39 offices for tuna farming. In Japan, Kyushu and Okinawa district, the share shows itself as 80 % of the domestic production quantity. Especially, the share of Amami-oshima Island in Kagoshima Prefecture exceeds 60 %. Therefore, this island has the maximum production scale of Japan. The amount of supply of BT and SBT was 56,000 tons in 2004. In Abroad, the tuna farming business forms a fixed connection between the importer and the wholesaler which have their office in Japan. In the field of the capital composition, the payment in advance, transaction and the way of settlement, each maintains their fixed relation. The market conditions of the cultured tuna are supported by "the decline of price level" and "the expansion of the general public consumption segment". These lead a team merchandising, and it is supported by the fixed business connection of each. This makes the profit of each business which are on the cultured tuna distribution. However, they have competition on the power balance among them.

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Effects of the College Financial Support Program on Development of the Department (전문대학 재정지원사업이 학과발전에 미치는 영향연구)

  • Yoou, Soon Kyu;Choi, Hea Kyung;Uhm, Tai Hwan
    • The Korean Journal of Emergency Medical Services
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.213-234
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    • 2003
  • The purposes of this study which was done by questionnaire survey and case study of First Aid Certification Program in Seoul Health College were to analyze results and effects of the college financial support program from Ministry of Education & Human Resources Development. The significant 164 data were collected from 300 professors in 8 colleges having the Department of Emergency Care from Oct. 1, 2002 to Dec. 31, 2002 and analyzed using SPSS in terms of t-test, ANOVA, Pearson's correlation coefficient and so on. The conclusions and suggestions from this study were summarized as follows; (1) Degree of acknowledgement about aims, contents, results of the college financial support program was above the middle(participants 4.21, non-participants 3.63) and higher relation than the others in case of participants(r:0.32 p<0.001), planning team(r:0.22 p<0.05). (2) Degree of acknowledgement about improvement of curriculum & educational facilities through the program was above the middle and higher relation than the others in case of participants. (3) Degree of acknowledgement about positive influence on acquirement rate of certification(licence) & job through the program was above the middle and performance & adaptation at work place was higher relation than the others in case of participants. (4) Degree of acknowledgement about positive influence on improvement of learning of student's major through the program was above the middle and higher relation than the others in case of participants. (5) The respondents thought that the program had a negative influence on professor's educational activities & research such as study 40.4%, lecture 23.1%, student guidance 12.5%. (6) When the program was administered by planning team, there were difficulties such as execution of budget 42.1%, cooperation with companies 17.1%, cooperation among program teams 11.8%, when it was administered by non-planning team there were difficulties such as execution of budget 45.5%, cooperation among departments 22.7%, cooperation with companies 13.6%. (7) Because it was too short to execute the budget, the ministry have to select proposed programs before the next school year. (8) This program should be changed temporary, insufficient support into consecutive, sufficient support for more characterization & specialization of the college which has a long-term developmental plan & vision.

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A Study on the Development of Design for Travel Souvenir Connected with a Local Festival - Focusing on the Wood-Craft Industry of Inje-county in Gangwon-province - (지역축제와 연계한 관광문화상품 디자인 개발에 관한 연구 - 강원도 인제군 목공예산업을 중심으로 -)

  • Choi, Ki;Shin, Soo-Khil;Park, Jeong-Soon
    • Archives of design research
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    • v.18 no.2 s.60
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    • pp.303-314
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    • 2005
  • This study is intended to promote local woodcraft industry with revitalization of local festival in Inje-county. To do so, we propose the travel souvenir design with local identity and the plan for production and marketing based on the management of 'Design Hospital' and the building of production method through 'laser wood inlaying technique like puzzle style'. Research method is benchmarking analysis of successful cases of travel souvenir which is developed for cultural contents of local festival. The result of this study is the following. First, design outsourcing is done one of support in industry focused on old boy network, Through it, Special brain of design can be supplied without compensation. Also the difficulty of manpower problem is lessened and the ability of product development in short term can be guaranteed. On the basis of this, we are able to apply Mass Customization production by up to date digital production method. This enables us to maintain the production flexibility of cultural goods fit for the traits of local festival. This study is intended to present the best model guananteeing both profit of wood technological industry and the possibility of local cultural.

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A Study on Policy Making for e-Navigation from the Viewpoint of a Maritime Digital Communication Network (e-Navigation을 위한 해상디지털통신 구축에 관한 정책 연구)

  • Lim, Hyuntaek;Cho, Yong-Gab
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.679-685
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    • 2018
  • In order to reduce marine accidents using advanced information and communication technology, various research and development projects are conducted globally on e-Navigation related technologies and services. Existing studies do not provide policy measures for LTE-M. In order for these technologies and services to be installed on vessels and to contribute to the prevention of accidents at sea, the law should be expand operational organizations and systems. In particular, communication equipment and related technical standards should be prepared, and its digital communication technology (LTE-M, VDES, Digital-MF / HF, etc.) In this study, we conducted short, medium, and long term performance assessment of the identification system and the policy for effective implementation of Korean e-Navigation. We presented a visible plan of the relevant policy. For example, e-Navigation core services, e-Navigation communication networks and operating systems, e-Navigation international standard leading technologies and e-navigation services activated in the field. To do this, we conducted research based on the progress data of the Korean e-Navigation project, which was led by the Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries, and conducted research discussions with practitioners and experts in related fields. As a result of this study, it is expected that the proposed policies will contribute to the reduction of marine accidents, the promotion of the maritime industry and the development of additional government policies for national security.