• 한국전자통신학회논문지
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.329-338
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• 2021

본 연구는 풍력발전의 합리적인 운영 계획과 에너지 저장창치의 용량산정을 위한 풍력 발전량을 예측한다. 예측을 위해 물리적 접근법과 통계적 접근법을 결합하여 풍력 발전량의 예측 방법을 제시하고 풍력 발전의 요인을 분석하여 변수를 선정한다. 선정된 변수들의 과거 데이터를 수집하여 딥러닝을 이용해 풍력 발전량을 예측한다. 사용된 모델은 Bidirectional LSTM(:Long short term memory)과 CNN(:Convolution neural network) 알고리즘을 결합한 하이브리드 모델을 구성하였으며, 예측 성능 비교를 위해 MLP 알고리즘으로 이루어진 모델과 오차를 비교하여, 예측 성능을 평가하고 그 결과를 제시한다.

• Environmental Engineering Research
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.404-411
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• 2019

In this study, we designed a data-driven model to predict chlorophyll-a using M5P model tree and extreme learning machine (ELM). The Juksan weir in the Youngsan River has high chlorophyll-a, which is the primary indicator of algal bloom every year. Short-term algal bloom prediction is important for environmental management and ecological assessment. Two models were developed and evaluated for short-term algal bloom prediction. M5P is a classification and regression-analysis-based method, and ELM is a feed-forward neural network with fast learning using the least square estimate for regression. The dataset used in this study includes water temperature, rainfall, solar radiation, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, N/P ratio, and chlorophyll-a, which were collected on a daily basis from January 2013 to December 2016. The M5P model showed that the prediction model after one day had the highest performance power and dropped off rapidly starting with predictions after three days. Comparing the performance power of the ELM model with the M5P model, it was found that the performance power of the 1-7 d chlorophyll-a prediction model was higher. Moreover, in a period of rapidly increasing algal blooms, the ELM model showed higher accuracy than the M5P model.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.1-8
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• 2016

In this study, we investigated the applicability of a short-term carbon dioxide ($CO_2$) passive sampler using turbidity change in a solution containing barium hydroxide ($Ba(OH)_2$). The mass of $CO_2$ introduced into the $Ba(OH)_2$ aqueous solution was strongly correlated ($r^2=0.9565$) to the change in turbidity caused by its reaction with the solution. The sampling rates calculated for 1 h and 24 h were $42.4{\pm}5.4mL\;min^{-1}$ and $2.3{\pm}0.3mL\;min^{-1}$, respectively. Both unexposed (blank) and exposed samplers remained stable during the storage period of at least two weeks. The detection limits of the passive sampler for $CO_2$ were 81.5 ppm for 1 h and 61.5 ppm for 24 h. Based on the results, the passive sampler using the change of turbidity in the $Ba(OH)_2$ aqueous solution appears to be a suitable tool for measuring short-term atmospheric concentrations of $CO_2$.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2019년도 학술발표회
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• pp.340-340
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• 2019

지구온난화로 유발되는 기후변동성이 증가함에 따라서 정확한 수문인자의 예측은 전 세계적으로 주요 관심사항이 되고 있다. 최근에는 고성능 컴퓨터 자원의 증가로 수문기상학 연구에서 동일한 학습량에 비하여 정확도의 향상이 뚜렷한 기계학습 구조를 활용하여 위성영상 기반의 대기예측, 태풍위치 추적 및 강수량 예측 등의 연구가 활발하게 진행되고 있다. 본 연구에는 기계학습 중 시계열 분석에 널리 활용되고 있는 순환신경망(Recurrent Neural Network, RNN) 기법의 대표적인 LSTM(Long Short-Term Memory) 네트워크를 이용하여 수문인자를 예측하였다. LSTM 네트워크는 가중치 및 메모리 요소에 대한 추가정보를 셀 상태에 저장하고 시계열의 길이 조정하여 모형의 탄력적 활용이 가능하다. LSTM 네트워크를 이용한 다양한 수문인자 예측결과 RMSE의 개선을 확인하였다. 따라서 본 연구를 통하여 개발된 기계학습을 통한 수문인자 예측기술은 권역별 수계별 홍수 및 가뭄대응 계획을 능동적으로 수립하는데 활용될 것으로 판단된다. 향후 연구에서는 LSTM의 입력영역을 Bayesian 추론기법을 활용하여 구성함으로 학습과정의 불확실성을 정량적으로 제어하고자 한다.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.77-87
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• 2021

In this study, a novel improved second order Radial Basis Function Neural Network based method with excellent scheduling capabilities is used for the dynamic prediction of short and long-term energy required applications. The effectiveness and the reliability of the algorithm are evaluated using training operations with New England-ISO database. The dynamic prediction algorithm is implemented in Matlab and the computation of mean absolute error and mean absolute percent error, and training time for the forecasted load, are determined. The results show the impact of temperature and other input parameters on the accuracy of solar Photovoltaic load forecasting. The mean absolute percent error is found to be between 1% to 3% and the training time is evaluated from 3s to 10s. The results are also compared with the previous studies, which show that this new method predicts short and long-term load better than sigmoidal neural network and bagged regression trees. The forecasted energy is found to be the nearest to the correct values as given by England ISO database, which shows that the method can be used reliably for short and long-term load forecasting of any electrical system.

• 한국해안·해양공학회논문집
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• 제33권6호
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• pp.238-245
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• 2021

본 연구에서는 LSTM 모델을 활용하여 낙동강 하구역의 DO 농도 예측을 위한 최적 모델 조건과 적합한 예측변수를 찾기 위한 Case study를 수행하였다. 모델 매개변수 case study 결과, Epoch = 300과 Sequence length = 1에서 상대적으로 높은 정확도를 보였다. 예측변수 case study 결과, DO와 수온을 예측변수로 했을 때 가장 높은 정확도를 보였으며, 이는 DO 농도와 수온의 높은 상관성에 기인한 것으로 판단된다. 상기 결과로부터 낙동강 하구역의 DO 농도 예측에 적합한 LSTM 모델 조건과 예측변수를 찾을 수 있었다.

• ETRI Journal
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• 제44권4호
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• pp.672-685
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• 2022

This article proposes a subject-independent application of brain-computer interfacing (BCI). A 32-channel Electroencephalography (EEG) device is used to measure imagined speech (SI) of four words (sos, stop, medicine, washroom) and one phrase (come-here) across 13 subjects. A deep long short-term memory (LSTM) network has been adopted to recognize the above signals in seven EEG frequency bands individually in nine major regions of the brain. The results show a maximum accuracy of 73.56% and a network prediction time (NPT) of 0.14 s which are superior to other state-of-the-art techniques in the literature. Our analysis reveals that the alpha band can recognize SI better than other EEG frequencies. To reinforce our findings, the above work has been compared by models based on the gated recurrent unit (GRU), convolutional neural network (CNN), and six conventional classifiers. The results show that the LSTM model has 46.86% more average accuracy in the alpha band and 74.54% less average NPT than CNN. The maximum accuracy of GRU was 8.34% less than the LSTM network. Deep networks performed better than traditional classifiers.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제54권12호
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• pp.4534-4550
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• 2022

Integrated severe accident codes should be capable of simulating not only specific physical phenomena but also entire plant behaviors, and in a sufficiently fast time. However, significant uncertainty may exist owing to the numerous parametric models and interactions among the various phenomena. The primary objectives of this study are to present best-practice uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results regarding the evolutions of severe accidents (SAs) and fission product source terms and to determine the effects of mitigation measures on them, as expected during a short-term station blackout (STSBO) of a reference pressurized water reactor (optimized power reactor (OPR)1000). Three reference scenarios related to the STSBO accident are considered: one base and two mitigation scenarios, and the impacts of dedicated severe accident mitigation (SAM) actions on the results of interest are analyzed (such as flammable gas generation). The uncertainties are quantified based on a random set of Monte Carlo samples per case scenario. The relative importance values of the uncertain input parameters to the results of interest are quantitatively evaluated through a relevant sensitivity/importance analysis.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2021년도 학술발표회
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• pp.373-373
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• 2021

Rainfall forecasting is an important issue that is applied in many areas, such as agriculture, flood warning, and water resources management. In this context, this study proposed a statistical and machine learning-based forecasting model for monthly rainfall. The Bayesian Gaussian process was chosen to optimize the hyperparameters of the Stacked Long Short-term memory (SLSTM) model. The proposed SLSTM model was applied for predicting monthly precipitation of Seoul station, South Korea. Data were retrieved from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) in the period between 1960 and 2019. Four schemes were examined in this study: (i) prediction with only rainfall; (ii) with deseasonalized rainfall; (iii) with rainfall and minimum temperature; (iv) with deseasonalized rainfall and minimum temperature. The error of predicted rainfall based on the root mean squared error (RMSE), 16-17 mm, is relatively small compared with the average monthly rainfall at Seoul station is 117mm. The results showed scheme (iv) gives the best prediction result. Therefore, this approach is more straightforward than the hydrological and hydraulic models, which request much more input data. The result indicated that a deep learning network could be applied successfully in the hydrology field. Overall, the proposed method is promising, given a good solution for rainfall prediction.

• 한국정보통신학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정보통신학회 2021년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.391-393
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• 2021

본 논문에서는 일상생활에서의 고령자에게 나타날 수 있는 낙상상황을 감지할 수 있는 텐서플로우를 이용한 장단기 메모리 기반 낙상감지 시스템에 대하여 소개한다. 낙상감지를 위해서 3축 가속도 센서 데이터를 이용하고, 이를 처리하여 다양한 파라미터화하며 일상생활 패턴 4가지, 낙상상황 패턴 3가지로 분류한다. 파라미터화한 데이터는 정규화 과정을 따르며, 학습이 진행된다. 학습은 Loss값이 0.5 이하가 될 때까지 진행된다. 각각의 파라미터인 θ, SVM (Sum Vector Magnitude), GSVM (gravity-weight SVM)에 대하여 결과를 산출한다. 가장 좋은 결과는 GSVM으로 Sensitivity 98.75%, Specificity 99.68%, Accuracy 99.28%로 가장 좋은 결과를 보였다.