• Title/Summary/Keyword: Sequential confidence intervals

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Sequential Confidence Intervals for Quantiles Based on Recursive Density Estimators

  • Kim, Sung-Kyun;Kim, Sung-Lai
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.297-309
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    • 1999
  • A sequential procedure of fixed-width confidence intervals for quantiles satisfying a condition of coverage probability is provided based on recursive density estimators. It is shown that the proposed sequential procedure is asymptotically efficient. In addition, the asymptotic normality for the proposed stopping time is derived.

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SEQUENTIAL CONFIDENCE INTERVALS WITH ${\beta}-PROTECTION$ IN A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION HAVING EQUAL MEAN AND VARIANCE

  • Kim, Sung-Kyun;Kim, Sung-Lai;Lee, Young-Whan
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.23 no.1_2
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    • pp.479-488
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    • 2007
  • A sequential procedure is proposed in order to construct one-sided confidence intervals for a normal mean with guaranteed coverage probability and ${\beta}-protection$ when the normal mean and variance are identical. First-order asymptotic properties on the sequential sample size are found. The derived results hold with uniformity in the total parameter space or its subsets.

SEQUENTIAL INTERVAL ESTIMATION FOR THE EXPONENTIAL HAZARD RATE WHEN THE LOSS FUNCTION IS STRICTLY CONVEX

  • Jang, Yu Seon
    • Korean Journal of Mathematics
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.429-437
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    • 2013
  • Let $X_1$, $X_2$, ${\cdots}$, $X_n$ be independent and identically distributed random variables having common exponential density with unknown mean ${\mu}$. In the sequential confidence interval estimation for the exponential hazard rate ${\theta}=1/{\mu}$, when the loss function is strictly convex, the following stopping rule is proposed with the half length d of prescribed confidence interval $I_n$ for the parameter ${\theta}$; ${\tau}$ = smallest integer n such that $n{\geq}z^2_{{\alpha}/2}\hat{\theta}^2/d^2+2$, where $\hat{\theta}=(n-1)\bar{X}{_n}^{-1}/n$ is the minimum risk estimator for ${\theta}$ and $z_{{\alpha}/2}$ is defined by $P({\mid}Z{\mid}{\leq}{\alpha}/2)=1-{\alpha}({\alpha}{\in}(0,1))$ Z ~ N(0, 1). For the confidence intervals $I_n$ which is required to satisfy $P({\theta}{\in}I_n){\geq}1-{\alpha}$. These estimated intervals $I_{\tau}$ have the asymptotic consistency of the sequential procedure; $$\lim_{d{\rightarrow}0}P({\theta}{\in}I_{\tau})=1-{\alpha}$$, where ${\alpha}{\in}(0,1)$ is given.

Quality of Coverage Analysis on Distributed Stochastic Steady-State Simulations (분산 시뮬레이션에서의 Coverage 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-Suk-R.;Park, Hyoung-Woo;Jeong, Hae-Duck-J.
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartA
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    • v.9A no.4
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    • pp.519-524
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    • 2002
  • In this paper we study the qualify of sequential coverage analysis under a scenario of distributed stochastic simulation known as MRIP(Multiple Replications In Parallel) in terms of the confidence intervals of coverage and the speedup. The estimator based in the F-distribution was applied to the sequential coverage analysis of steady-state means. in simulations of the $M/M/1/{\infty},\;M/D/I/{\infty}\;and\;M/H_{2}/1/{\infty}$ queueing systems on a single processor and multiple processors. By using multiple processors under the MRIP scenario, the time for collecting many replications needed in sequential coverage analysis is reduced. One can also easily collect more replications by executing it in distributed computers or clusters linked by a local area network.

Sequential confidence intervals for the mean with $\beta$-protection in a certain parameter space

  • Kim, Sung-Lai
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.113-121
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    • 1990
  • Let ${X_n : n=1,2,\cdots}$ be iid random variables with distribution $P_{\theta}, \theta \in H$ where $H$ is some abstract parameter space. We consider a sequential confidence interval I for the mean $\mu = \mu(\theta)$ of $P_{\theta}$ satisfying $P_{\theta}(\mu \in I) \geq 1-\alpha$ and $P_{\theta}(\mu-\delta(\mu) \in I) \leq \beta$ for all $\theta \in H$ for any given an imprecision real valued function $\delta(\mu) > 0$ and error probabilities $0 < \alpha, \beta < 1$. A one-sided sequential confidence interval is constructed under some restriction of the family {P_{\theta} : \theta \in H}$ and the imprecision function $\delta$. This is extended to the two-sided cases.

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An Integrated Sequential Inference Approach for the Normal Mean

  • Almahmeed, M.A.;Hamdy, H.I.;Alzalzalah, Y.H.;Son, M.S.
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.415-431
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    • 2002
  • A unified framework for statistical inference for the mean of the normal distribution to derive point estimates, confidence intervals and statistical tests is proposed. This optimal design is justified after investigating the basic information and requirements that are possible and impossible to control when specifying practical and statistical requirements. Point estimation is only credible when viewed in the larger context of interval estimation, since the information required for optimal point estimation is unspecifiable. Triple sampling is proposed and justified as a reasonable sampling vehicle to achieve the specifiable requirements within the unified framework.

Temporal Interval Refinement for Point-of-Interest Recommendation (장소 추천을 위한 방문 간격 보정)

  • Kim, Minseok;Lee, Jae-Gil
    • Database Research
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.86-98
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    • 2018
  • Point-of-Interest(POI) recommendation systems suggest the most interesting POIs to users considering the current location and time. With the rapid development of smartphones, internet-of-things, and location-based social networks, it has become feasible to accumulate huge amounts of user POI visits. Therefore, instant recommendation of interesting POIs at a given time is being widely recognized as important. To increase the performance of POI recommendation systems, several studies extracting users' POI sequential preference from POI check-in data, which is intended for implicit feedback, have been suggested. However, when constructing a model utilizing sequential preference, the model encounters possibility of data distortion because of a low number of observed check-ins which is attributed to intensified data sparsity. This paper suggests refinement of temporal intervals based on data confidence. When building a POI recommendation system using temporal intervals to model the POI sequential preference of users, our methodology reduces potential data distortion in the dataset and thus increases the performance of the recommendation system. We verify our model's effectiveness through the evaluation with the Foursquare and Gowalla dataset.

Estimation of slope , βusing the Sequential Slope in Simple Linear Regression Model

  • Choi, Yong;Kim, Dongjae
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.257-266
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    • 2003
  • Distribution-free estimation methods are proposed for slope, $\beta$ in the simple linear regression model. In this paper, we suggest the point estimators using the sequential slope based on sign test and Wilcoxon signed rank test. Also confidence intervals are presented for each estimation methods. Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to compare the efficiency of these methods with least square method and Theil´s method. Some properties for the proposed methods are discussed.

Validation Technique using variance and confidence interval of metamodel (근사모델의 분산과 신뢰구간을 이용한 모델의 정확도 평가법)

  • Han, In-Sik;Lee, Yong-Bin;Choi, Dong-Hoon
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.1169-1175
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    • 2008
  • The validation technique is classified with two methods whether to demand of additional experimental points. The method which requires additional experimental points such as RSME is actually impossible in engineering field. Therefore, the method which only use experimented points such as the cross validation technique is only available. But the cross validation not only requires considerable computational costs for generating metamodel each iterations, but also cannot measure quantitatively the fidelity of metamodel. In this research we propose a new validation technique for representative metamodels using an variance of metamodel and confidence interval information. The proposed validation technique computes confidence intervals using a variance information from the metamodel. This technique will have influence on choosing the accurate metamodel, constructing ensemble of each metamodels and advancing effectively sequential sampling technique.

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A Study on the Sequential Regenerative Simulation (순차적인 재생적 시뮬레이션에 관한 연구)

  • JongSuk R.;HaeDuck J.
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.23-34
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    • 2004
  • Regenerative simulation (RS) is a method of stochastic steady-state simulation in which output data are collected and analysed within regenerative cycles (RCs). Since data collected during consecutive RCs are independent and identically distributed, there is no problem with the initial transient period in simulated processes, which is a perennial issue of concern in all other types of steady-state simulation. In this paper, we address the issue of experimental analysis of the quality of sequential regenerative simulation in the sense of the coverage of the final confidence intervals of mean values. The ultimate purpose of this study is to determine the best version of RS to be implemented in Akaroa2 [1], a fully automated controller of distributed stochastic simulation in LAN environments.

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