• Title/Summary/Keyword: Sensitivity assessment

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Uncertainty Assessment using Monte Carlo Simulation in Net Thrust Measurement at AETF

  • Lee, Bo-Hwa;Lee, Kyung-Jae;Yang, In-Young;Yang, Soo-Seok;Lee, Dae-Sung
    • International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.126-131
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    • 2007
  • In this paper, Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method was used as an uncertainty assessment tool for air flow, net thrust measurement. Uuncertainty sources of the net thrust measurement were analyzed, and the probability distribution characteristics of each source were discussed. Detailed MCS methodology was described including the effect of the number of simulation. Compared to the conventional sensitivity coefficient method, the MCS method has advantage in the uncertainty assessment. The MCS is comparatively simple, convenient and accurate, especially for complex or nonlinear measurement modeling equations. The uncertainty assessment result by MCS was compared with that of the conventional sensitivity coefficient method, and each method gave different result. The uncertainties in the net thrust measurement by the MCS and the conventional sensitivity coefficient method were 0.906% and 1.209%, respectively. It was concluded that the first order Taylor expansion in the conventional sensitivity coefficient method and the nonlinearity of model equation caused the difference. It was noted that the uncertainty assessment method should be selected carefully according to the mathematical characteristics of the model equation of the measurement.

Environmental features of the distribution areas and climate sensitivity assesment of Korean Fir and Khinghan Fir (구상나무와 분비나무분포지의 환경 특성 및 기후변화 민감성 평가)

  • Park, Hyun-Chul;Lee, Jung-Hwan;Lee, Gwan-Gyu;Um, Gi-Jeung
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.260-277
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    • 2015
  • The object of this study was the climate change sensitivity assessment of Korean Fir and Khinghan Fir as a representative subalpine plant in South Korea. Using species distribution models, we predicted the probability of current and future species distribution. According to this study, potential distribution that have been predicted based on the threshold (MTSS) is, Khinghan Fir was higher loss rate than Korean Fir. And in the climate change sensitivity assessment using the scalar sensitivity weight ($W_{is}$), $W_{is}$ of Korean Fir was higher relatively than the sensitivity of Khinghan Fir. When using the species distribution models as shown in this study may vary depending on the probability of presence data and spatial variables. Therefore should be prior decision studies on the ecological environment of the study species. Based on this study, if it is domestic applicable climate change sensitivity assessment method is developed. it would be important decision-making to climate change and biological diversity of adaptation policy.

Damage assessment in periodic structures from measured natural frequencies by a sensitivity and transfer matrix-based method

  • Zhu, Hongping;Li, Lin;Wang, Dansheng
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.17-34
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    • 2003
  • This paper presents a damage assessment procedure applied to periodic spring mass systems using an eigenvalue sensitivity-based method. The damage is directly related to the stiffness reduction of the damage element. The natural frequencies of periodic structures with one single disorder are found by adopting the transfer matrix approach, consequently, the first order approximation of the natural frequencies with respect to the disordered stiffness in different elements is used to form the sensitivity matrix. The analysis shows that the sensitivity of natural frequencies to damage in different locations depends only on the mode number and the location of damage. The stiffness changes due to damage can be identified by solving a set of underdetermined equations based on the sensitivity matrix. The issues associated with many possible damage locations in large structural systems are addressed, and a means of improving the computational efficiency of damage detection while maintaining the accuracy for large periodic structures with limited available measured natural frequencies, is also introduced in this paper. The incomplete measurements and the effect of random error in terms of measurement noise in the natural frequencies are considered. Numerical results of a periodic spring-mass system of 20 degrees of freedom illustrate that the proposed method is simple and robust in locating single or multiple damages in a large periodic structure with a high computational efficiency.

Sensitivity analysis of mechanical behaviors for bridge damage assessment

  • Miyamoto, Ayaho;Isoda, Satoshi
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.539-558
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    • 2012
  • The diagnosis of bridge serviceability is carried out by a combination of in-situ visual inspection, static and dynamic loading tests and analyses. Structural health monitoring (SHM) using information technology and sensors is increasingly being used for providing a better estimate of structural performance characteristics rather than above traditional methods. Because the mechanical behavior of bridges with various kinds of damage can not be made clear, it is very difficult to estimate both the damage mode and degree of damage of existing bridges. In this paper, the sensitivity of both static and dynamic behaviors of bridges are studied as a measure of damage assessment through experiments on model bridges induced with some specified artificial damages. And, a method of damage assessment of bridges based on those behaviors is discussed in detail. Finally, based on the results, a possible application for structural health monitoring systems for existing bridges is also discussed.

Validation of Fall Risk Assessment Scales among Hospitalized Patients in South Korea using Retrospective Data Analysis (후향적 자료분석을 통한 낙상위험 사정도구의 타당도 비교: 종합병원 입원 환자를 중심으로)

  • Kang, Young Ok;Song, Rhayun
    • Korean Journal of Adult Nursing
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.29-38
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: The purpose of the study was to validate fall risk assessment scales among hospitalized adult patients in South Korea using the electronic medical records by comparing sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values, and negative predictive values of Morse Fall Scale (MFS), Bobath Memorial Hospital Fall Risk Assessment Scale (BMFRAS), and Johns Hopkins Hospital Fall Risk Assessment tool (JHFRAT). Methods: A total of 120 patients who experienced fall episodes during their hospitalization from June 2010 to December 2013 was categorized into the fall group. Another 120 patients, who didn't experience fall episodes with age, sex, clinical departments, and the type of wards matched with the fall group, were categorized to the comparison group. Data were analyzed for the comparisons of sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and the area under the curve of the three tools. Results: MFS at a cut-off score of 48 had .806 for ROC curves, 76.7% for sensitivity, 77.5% for specificity, 77.3% for positive predictive value, and 76.9% for negative predictive value, which were the highest values among the three fall assessment scales. Conclusion: The MFS with the highest score and the highest discrimination was evaluated to be suitable and reasonable for predicting falls of inpatients in med-surg units of university hospitals.

Identification of Impact Factors in Ship-to-Ship Mooring Through Sensitivity Analysis

  • Lee, Sang-Won;Lee, Hyeong-Tak;Kim, Dae-Gun;Cho, Ik-Soon
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.43 no.5
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    • pp.310-319
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    • 2019
  • With the recent increase in the volume of liquid cargo transportation, there is a need for STS( Ship To Ship) globally. In the case of the STS mooring, the safety assessment should be conducted according to other criteria because mooring is different from the general mooring at the quay, but there is no separate standard in Korea. Thus in this study, STS mooring simulation and sensitivity analysis using OPTIMOOR program, the numerical analysis program, was conducted to identify the characteristics of the STS mooring. The target sea modeled the Yeosu port anchorage in Korea and the target ship was selected as the case of VLCC (Very Large Crude Oil Carrier)-VLCC. Through the numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis, the characteristics of STS mooring were identified. Also based on these results, we focused on establishing the standard for STS mooring safety assessment. Numerical simulation results show that the STS mooring safety can be changed according to a ship's cargo loading condition, pre-tension of mooring line, sea depth, encounter angle with the weather, and the weather condition. Additionally, the risk matrix is prepared to establish the safe external force range in the corresponding sea area. This result can be used to understand the mooring characteristics of STS and contribute to the revision of mooring safety assessment criteria.

Optimum Design of Structural Monitoring System using Artificial Neural Network and Multilevel Sensitivity Analysis (다단계민감도 분석 및 인공신경망을 이용한 최적 계측시스템 선정기법)

  • 김상효;김병진
    • Computational Structural Engineering
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.303-313
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    • 1997
  • Though many techniques for the damage assessment of structures have been studied recently, most of them can be only applied to simple structures. Therefore, practical damage assessment techniques that evaluate the damage location and the damage state for large structures need to be developed. In this study, a damage assessment technique using a neural network is developed, in which the bilevel damage assessment procedure is proposed to evaluate the damage of a large structure from the limited monitoring data. The procedure is as follows ; first, for the rational selection of damage critical members, the members that affect the probability of failure or unusual structural behavior are selected by sensitivity analysis. Secondly, the monitoring points and the number of sensors that are sensitive to the damage severity of the selected members are also selected through the sensitivity analysis with a proposed sensitivity measurement format. The validity and applicability of the developed technique are demonstrated by various examples, and it has been shown that the practical information on the damage state of the selected critical members can be assessed even though the limited monitoring data have been used.

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Development of a CAD Based Tool for the Analysis of Landscape Visibility and Sensitivity (수치지형 해석에 의한 가시성 및 시인성의 경관정보화 연구 - CAD 기반의 분석 도구 개발을 중심으로 -)

  • 조동범
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.78-78
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    • 1998
  • The purpose of this research is to develop a CAD-based program for data analysis of digital elevation model(DEM) on the aspect of landscape assessment. When handling DEM data as a visual simulation of topographic landscape, it is basic interest to analyze visible area and visualize visual sensitivity distributions. In reference with landscape assessment, more intuitive and interactive visualizing tools are needed, specially in area of visual approach. For adaptability to landscape assessment, algorithmic approaches to visibility analysis and concepts for visual sensitivity calculation in this study were based on processing techniques of entity data control functions used in AutoCAD drawing database. Also, for the purpose of quantitative analysis, grid-type 3DFACE entities were adopted as mesh unit of DEM structure. Developed programs are composed of main part named VSI written in AutoLISP and two of interface modules written in dialog control language(DCL0 for user-oriented interactive usage. Definitions of camera points(view points) and target points(or observed area) are available alternatively in combined methods of representing scenic landscape, scenery, and sequential landscape. In the case of scene landscape(single camera to fixed target point), only visibility analysis in available. And total visibility, frequency of cumulative visibility, and visual sensitivity analysis are available in other cases. Visual sensitivity was thought as view angle(3 dimensional observed visual area) and the strengths were classified in user defined level referring to statistical characteristics of distribution. Visibility analysis routine of the VSI was proved to be more effective in the accuracy and time comparing with similar modules of existing AutoCAD third utility.

SIMULATION OF DAILY RUNOFF AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH SOIL AND WATER ASSESSMENT TOOL

  • Lee, Do-Hun;Kim, Nam-Won;Kim, In-Ho
    • Water Engineering Research
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.133-146
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    • 2004
  • Soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) was simulated based on the default parameters and a priori soil parameter estimation method in Bocheong watershed of Korea. The performance of the model was tested against the measured daily runoff data for 5 years between 1993 and 1997. The sensitivity analysis of SWAT model parameters was conducted to identify the most sensitive model parameters affecting the model output. The results of SWAT simulation indicate that the overall performance of SWAT in calculating daily runoff is reasonably acceptable. However, there is a problem in estimating the low flow components of streamflow since the low flow components simulated by SWAT are significantly different from the measured low flow. The sensitivity analysis with SWAT points out that soil related parameters are the most sensitive parameters affecting surface and ground water balance components and groundwater flow related parameters exhibit negligible sensitivity.

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Development of Near miss Assessment Model Using Bayesian Network and Derivation of Major Causes (베이지안 네트워크를 이용한 아차사고 평가 모델 개발 및 주요 원인 도출)

  • Seon Yeong Ha;Mi Jeong Lee;Jong-Bae Baek
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.54-59
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    • 2023
  • The relationship between near misses and major accidents can be confirmed using the ratios proposed by Heinrich and Bird. Systematic reviews of previous national and international studies did not reveal the assessment process used in near-miss management systems. In this study, a model was developed for assessing near misses and major factors were derived through case application. By reviewing national and international literature, 14 factors were selected for each dimension of the P2T (people, procedure, technology) model. To identify the causal relationship between accidents and these factors, a near-miss assessment model was developed using a Bayesian network. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to derive the major factors. To verify the validity of the model, near-miss data obtained from the ethylene production process were applied. As a result, "PE2 (education)," "PR1 (procedure)," and "TE1 (equipment and facility not installed)" were derived as the major factors causing near misses in this process. If actual workplace data are applied to the near-miss assessment model developed in this study, results that are unique to the workplace can be confirmed. In addition, scientific safety management is possible only when priority is given through sensitivity analysis.