• Title/Summary/Keyword: Seasonal trend

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Linear and Nonlinear Trends of Extreme Temperatures in Korea (한반도 극한 기온의 선형 및 비선형 변화 경향)

  • Kim, Sang-Wook;Song, Kanghyun;Kim, Seo-Yeon;Son, Seok-Woo;Franzke, C.
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.379-390
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    • 2014
  • This study explores the long-term trends of surface air temperatures in 11 KMA stations over the period of 1960~2012. Both linear and nonlinear trends are examined for the $95^{th}$, $50^{th}$, and $5^{th}$ percentiles of daily maximum ($T_{max}$) and minimum temperatures ($T_{min}$) by using quantile regression method. It is found that in most stations linear trends of $T_{max}$ and $T_{min}$ are generally stronger in winter than in summer, and warming trend of the $5^{th}$ percentile temperature (cold extreme) is stronger than that of the $95^{th}$ percentile temperature (warm extreme) in both seasons. The nonlinear trends, which are evaluated by the second order polynomial fitting, show a strong nonlinearity in winter. Specifically, winter temperatures have increased until 2000s but slightly decreased afterward in all percentiles. This contrasts with the $95^{th}$ and $50^{th}$ percentiles of summer $T_{min}$ that show a decreasing trend until 1980s then an increasing trend. While this result is consistent with a seasonal dependence of the recent global warming hiatus, most of the nonlinear trends are statistically insignificant, making a quantitative attribution of nonlinear temperature trends challenging.

Exploring Fashion Trends Using Network Analysis (사회연결망 분석을 활용한 패션 트렌드 고찰)

  • Park, Jisoo;Lee, Yuri
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.38 no.5
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    • pp.611-626
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    • 2014
  • Reading and foreseeing fashion trends is crucial and difficult in the fashion industry due to accelerated and diversified changes in fashion trends. We use network analysis to investigate fashion trends from 2004 to 2013 in order to find the inter-relevance among fashion trends. We extracted words from fashion trend info for women's wear provided by Samsung Design Net, created a 2-mode network of seasons and trend languages, and visualized this network using NodeXl program. Fashion trends repeated a unique pattern during the period. In the first half (2004-2008), retro modern, feminine modern, and ecological modern were dominant trends in consecutive order. The years 2009-2013 witnessed distinctive fashion trends in S/S seasons and in F/W seasons. 11F/W, 12F/W and 13F/W seasons were characterized by artistic creative style. From 2010, natural style dominated S/S seasons. 10S/S and 12S/S seasons were distinguished as a calm natural style that reflected a peaceful and simple life. In 11S/S and 13S/S seasons, soft natural style emerged as a sign of increased importance of inner spirit and natural energy. A seasonal reappearance of trends was observed every two years in S/S seasons that enabled the prediction that 14S/S will see another version of natural style. A macroscopic trend for the last 10 years was represented by the keywords 'modern' and 'natural'. 'Modern' involved the past styles such as 60's, Baroque and the origin of human life. 'Natural' was connected with design elements such as material, silhouette and color. Managerial implications and future study directions are discussed based on the results.

Comparative Analysis of COVID-19 Outbreak and Changes in Neurosurgical Emergency Patients

  • Lee, Min Ho;Jang, Seu-Ryang;Lee, Tae-Kyu
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.65 no.1
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    • pp.130-137
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    • 2022
  • Objective : COVID-19 has spread worldwide since the first case was reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Our institution is a regional trauma and emergency center in the northern Gyeonggi Province. The changing trend of patient care in the emergency room of this hospital likely reflects the overall trend of patients in the area. In the present study, whether changes in the surrounding social environment following the outbreak of COVID-19 changed the incidence of neurosurgical emergency patients and whether differences in practice existed were investigated. Methods : The overall trend was analyzed from January 2020 which is before the outbreak of COVID-19 to September 2020. To remove bias due to seasonal variation, the previous 2 year's records during the same period were reviewed and compared. Confirmed COVID-19 patients in the northern Gyeonggi Province were identified using data released by the government. And patients who came to the emergency department with head trauma and stroke were identified. Results : Based on the present study results, the total number of neurosurgery emergency patients decreased over the study period. In the trauma patient group, the number of patients not involved in traffic accidents significantly decreased compared with patients involved in traffic accidents. Among the stroke cases, the rate of ischemic stroke was lower than hemorrhagic stroke, although a statistically significant difference was not observed. Meanwhile, an increase in the risk of mortality associated with trauma or stroke cases was not observed during the COVID-19 outbreak compared with the same time period in the previous year. Conclusion : Due to the occurrence of COVID-19, non-essential activities have decreased and trauma cases not associated with traffic accidents appeared to decrease. Due to the decrease in overall activity, the number of stroke patients has also decreased. This trend is expected to continue even in the post-COVID-19 era, and accordingly, the results from the present study are relevant especially if the current situation continues.

The Variations of Stratospheric Ozone over the Korean Peninsula 1985~2009 (한반도 상공의 오존층 변화 1985~2009)

  • Park, Sang Seo;Kim, Jhoon;Cho, Nayeong;Lee, Yun Gon;Cho, Hi Ku
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.349-359
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    • 2011
  • The climatology in stratospheric ozone over the Korean Peninsula, presented in previous studies (e.g., Cho et al., 2003; Kim et al., 2005), is updated by using daily and monthly data from satellite and ground-based data through December 2009. In addition, long-term satellite data [Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), 1979~2009] have been also analyzed in order to deduce the spatial distributions and temporal variations of the global total ozone. The global average of total ozone (1979~2009) is 298 DU which shows a minimum of about 244 DU in equatorial latitudes and increases poleward in both hemispheres to a maximum of about 391 DU in Okhotsk region. The recent period, from 2006 to 2009, shows reduction in total ozone by 6% relative to the values for the pre-1980s (1979~1982). The long-term trends were estimated by using a multiple linear regression model (e.g., WMO, 1999; Cho et al., 2003) including explanatory variables for the seasonal variation, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and solar cycle over three different time intervals: a whole interval from 1979 to 2009, the former interval from 1979 to 1992, and the later interval from 1993 to 2009 with a turnaround point of deep minimum in 1993 is related to the effect of Mt. Pinatubo eruption. The global trend shows -0.93% $decade^{-1}$ for the whole interval, whereas the former and the later interval trends amount to -2.59% $decade^{-1}$ and +0.95% $decade^{-1}$, respectively. Therefore, the long-term total ozone variations indicate that there are positive trends showing a recovery sign of the ozone layer in both North/South hemispheres since around 1993. Annual mean total ozone (1985~2009) is distributed from 298 DU for Jeju ($33.52^{\circ}N$) to 352 DU for Unggi ($42.32^{\circ}N$) in almost zonally symmetric pattern over the Korean Peninsula, with the latitudinal gradient of 6 DU $degree^{-1}$. It is apparent that seasonal variability of total ozone increases from Jeju toward Unggi. The annual mean total ozone for Seoul shows 323 DU, with the maximum of 359 DU in March and the minimum of 291 DU in October. It is found that the day to day variability in total ozone exhibits annual mean of 5.7% in increase and -5.2% in decrease. The variability as large as 38.4% in increase and 30.3% in decrease has been observed, respectively. The long-term trend analysis (e.g., WMO, 1999) of monthly total ozone data (1985~2009) merged by satellite and ground-based measurements over the Korean Peninsula shows increase of 1.27% $decade^{-1}$ to 0.80% $decade^{-1}$ from Jeju to Unggi, respectively, showing systematic decrease of the trend magnitude with latitude. This study also presents a new analysis of ozone density and trends in the vertical distribution of ozone for Seoul with data up to the end of 2009. The mean vertical distributions of ozone show that the maximum value of the ozone density is 16.5 DU $km^{-1}$ in the middle stratospheric layer between 24 km and 28 km. About 90.0% and 71.5% of total ozone are found in the troposphere and in the stratosphere between 15 and 33 km, respectively. The trend analysis reconfirms the previous results of significant positive ozone trend, of up to 5% $decade^{-1}$, in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere (0~24 km), with negative trend, of up to -5% $decade^{-1}$, in the stratosphere (24~38 km). In addition, the Umkehr data show a positive trend of about 3% $decade^{-1}$ in the upper stratosphere (38~48 km).

The Distribution Characteristics and Long-term Trend of Carbonaceous Species in Airborne Particulate in Seoul between 1986 and 1996

  • Hwang, Kyung-Chul;Ma, Chang-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.19 no.E1
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    • pp.11-20
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    • 2003
  • To characterize airborne particulate carbon and its temporal variation in the heavily industrialized metropolitan city, Seoul in South Korea, aerosol sampling was performed from 1986 to 1996. Correlation coefficients of elemental carbon (EC) and organic carbon (OC) with mass concentration of fine particles ($\underline{\leq}$2.1 ${\mu}m$) are 0.73 and 0.51, respectively. EC concentrations of the fine particle mode are 10.1, 5.9, 4.5, and 7.4 ${\mu}g\;m^{-3}$ in winter, spring, summer, and autumn, respectively. On the other hand, OC concentration shows maximum value in winter and followed by autumn, summer, and spring. A seasonal peak in the ratio of OC to EC in fine particles was observed during the summer photochemical season from June to August. Concentrations of EC and OC in Asian dust storm events are generally higher than in non- Asian dust storm events except in 1990. The difference of EC concentrations between Asian dust storm periods and non-Asian dust storm periods are much larger than those of OC concentrations. There are slight increases of EC concentration between 1987 and 1990 and a gradual decrease between 1990 and 1996.

창원시 대산면 강변여과수의 수질과 낙동강 수질의 관련성 연구

  • 장성;함세영;김형수;차용훈;정재열
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Soil and Groundwater Environment Conference
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    • 2004.04a
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    • pp.451-454
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    • 2004
  • The study aims to assess the quality of bank filtrate in relation to streamflow and physico-chemical properties of the stream. Turbidity, pH, temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) of Nakdong River and riverbank filtrate were statistically analyzed. The physico-chemical properties of riverbank filtrate were measured from irregularly different seven pumping wells every day. Autocorrelation analyses were conducted to the qualities of stream water and bank filtrated water. Temperature, pH and DO of streamflow shows strong linearity and long memory effect, indicating the effect of seasonal air temperature and rainy season. Temperature of riverbank filtrate shows weak linearity and weak memory, indicating differently from the trend of stream temperature. Turbidity of steramflow shows strong linearity and long memory effect, while turbidity of riverbank filtrate indicates weak linearity and weak memory. Cross-correlation analysis shows low relation between turbidity, pH, temperature and DO of riverbank filtrate and those of streamflow. Turbidity of streamflow was largely affected by the streamflow rate, showing a similar trend with autocorrelation function of streamflow rate. The turbidity of riverbank filtrate has a lag time of 25 hours. This indicates that turbidity of streamflow in a dry season has very low effect on the turbidity of riverbank filtrate, and a high turbidity of the stream in a rainy season has a fairly low effect on the turbidity of riverbank filtrate.

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Characteristics of Pollutant Loads in Saemangeum Watershed Using HSPF (논문 - HSPF를 이용한 새만금 유역의 오염부하 특성)

  • Jung, Ji-Yeon;Shin, Yu-Ri;Choi, Jung-Hoon;Choi, In-Kyu;Yoon, Chun-Gyeong;Son, Yeong-Kwon
    • KCID journal
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.54-65
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    • 2011
  • This study was performed to analyze the influence of pollutant loads characteristics on the point and non-point sources in Saemangeum watershed area using Hydrological Simulation Program, Fortran (HSPF). The simulation items were flow, BOD, T-N, and T-P(2007~2010). The pollutant loads trend reflects the precipitation. Specifically, the point source loads were almost constant, but the non-point source loads were influenced in the precipitation. It was found that the effect of non-point source is larger than point source. The water quality had a clear trend by the season. However, pollutant loads did not show distinct seasonal changes. The reason is that the pollutant concentration is diluted by the increased flow at summer season. Therefore, it is important to control the non-point source in order to manage water quality in the region. For the management of Saemangeum lake, it is need to control of supplied pollutant loads from Saemangeum watershed.

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Reconstruction of Terrestrial Water Storage of GRACE/GFO Using Convolutional Neural Network and Climate Data

  • Jeon, Woohyu;Kim, Jae-Seung;Seo, Ki-Weon
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.445-458
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    • 2021
  • Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravimeter satellites observed the Earth gravity field with unprecedented accuracy since 2002. After the termination of GRACE mission, GRACE Follow-on (GFO) satellites successively observe global gravity field, but there is missing period between GRACE and GFO about one year. Many previous studies estimated terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes using hydrological models, vertical displacements from global navigation satellite system observations, altimetry, and satellite laser ranging for a continuity of GRACE and GFO data. Recently, in order to predict TWS changes, various machine learning methods are developed such as artificial neural network and multi-linear regression. Previous studies used hydrological and climate data simultaneously as input data of the learning process. Further, they excluded linear trends in input data and GRACE/GFO data because the trend components obtained from GRACE/GFO data were assumed to be the same for other periods. However, hydrological models include high uncertainties, and observational period of GRACE/GFO is not long enough to estimate reliable TWS trends. In this study, we used convolutional neural networks (CNN) method incorporating only climate data set (temperature, evaporation, and precipitation) to predict TWS variations in the missing period of GRACE/GFO. We also make CNN model learn the linear trend of GRACE/GFO data. In most river basins considered in this study, our CNN model successfully predicts seasonal and long-term variations of TWS change.

Epidemiologic Trends and Seasonality of Scabies in South Korea, 2010-2017

  • Kim, Jong-Hun;Cheong, Hae-Kwan
    • Parasites, Hosts and Diseases
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    • v.57 no.4
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    • pp.399-404
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    • 2019
  • Scabies is a parasitic skin infection with intense itching. Scabies infection seriously impairs quality of life, while outbreaks in medical institutions cause financial losses. This study aimed to present the annual and seasonal trend of prevalence of scabies in the national population. Scabies cases were extracted from National Health Insurance Service database and its epidemiologic characteristics were assessed. To analyze the seasonality of scabies occurrence, temperature and humidity were included in the model as weather factors, and the per capita gross national income index was adjusted. The annual prevalence by age group was 0.56-0.69 per 1,000 persons until the age of 40 years and peaked at 3.0-4.1 per 1,000 persons in the age group over 80 years. The number of women diagnosed with scabies has been consistently higher compared to that of men since 2010. Mean number of cases diagnosed as scabies was lowest in spring, approximately 4,000 cases, when the average temperature was less than $5^{\circ}C$ at 2 months prior, whereas more than 6,000 scabies cases occurred in autumn when temperatures exceeded $25^{\circ}C$ at 2 months prior. This study presents the epidemiological characteristics and seasonality of all cases nationwide over 8 years and will help to establish control policies.

Evaluation of the Troposphere Ozone in the Reanalysis Datasets: Comparison with Pohang Ozonesonde Observation (대류권 오존 재분석 자료의 품질 검증: 포항 오존존데와 비교 검증)

  • Park, Jinkyung;Kim, Seo-Yeon;Son, Seok-Woo
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.53-59
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    • 2019
  • The quality of troposphere ozone in three reanalysis datasets is evaluated with longterm ozonesonde measurement at Pohang, South Korea. The Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis (ERAI) and Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA2) are particularly examined in terms of the vertical ozone structure, seasonality and long-term trend in the lower troposphere. It turns out that MACC shows the smallest biases in the ozone profile, and has realistic seasonality of lower-tropospheric ozone concentration with a maximum ozone mixing ratio in spring and early summer and minimum in winter. MERRA2 also shows reasonably small biases. However, ERAI exhibits significant biases with substantially lower ozone mixing ratio in most seasons, except in mid summer, than the observation. It even fails to reproduce the seasonal cycle of lower-tropospheric ozone concentration. This result suggests that great caution is needed when analyzing tropospheric ozone using ERAI data. It is further found that, although not statistically significant, all datasets consistently show a decreasing trend of 850-hPa ozone concentration since 2003 as in the observation.