• Title/Summary/Keyword: Scenario prediction

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Geomechanical and thermal reservoir simulation during steam flooding

  • Taghizadeh, Roohollah;Goshtasbi, Kamran;Manshad, Abbas Khaksar;Ahangari, Kaveh
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.66 no.4
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    • pp.505-513
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    • 2018
  • Steam flooding is widely used in heavy oil reservoir with coupling effects among the formation temperature change, fluid flow and solid deformation. The effective stress, porosity and permeability in this process can be affected by the multi-physical coupling of thermal, hydraulic and mechanical processes (THM), resulting in a complex interaction of geomechanical effects and multiphase flow in the porous media. Quantification of the state of deformation and stress in the reservoir is therefore essential for the correct prediction of reservoir efficiency and productivity. This paper presents a coupled fluid flow, thermal and geomechanical model employing a program (MATLAB interface code), which was developed to couple conventional reservoir (ECLIPSE) and geomechanical (ABAQUS) simulators for coupled THM processes in multiphase reservoir modeling. In each simulation cycle, time dependent reservoir pressure and temperature fields obtained from three dimensional compositional reservoir models were transferred into finite element reservoir geomechanical models in ABAQUS as multi-phase flow in deforming reservoirs cannot be performed within ABAQUS and new porosity and permeability are obtained using volumetric strains for the next analysis step. Finally, the proposed approach is illustrated on a complex coupled problem related to steam flooding in an oil reservoir. The reservoir coupled study showed that permeability and porosity increase during the injection scenario and increasing rate around injection wells exceed those of other similar comparable cases. Also, during injection, the uplift occurred very fast just above the injection wells resulting in plastic deformation.

Possible Changes of East Asian Summer Monsoon by Time Slice Experiment (Time Slice 실험으로 모의한 동아시아 여름몬순의 변화)

  • Moon, JaYeon;Kim, Moon-Hyun;Choi, Da-Hee;Boo, Kyung-On;Kwon, Won-Tae
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.55-70
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    • 2008
  • The global time slice approach is a transient experiment using high resolution atmosphere-only model with boundary condition from the low resolution globally coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The present study employs this "time slice concept" using ECHAM4 atmosphere-only model at a horizontal resolution of T106 with the lower boundary forcing obtained from a lower-resolution (T42) greenhouse gas + aerosol forcing experiment performed using the ECHO-G/S (ECHAM4/HOPE-G) coupled model. In order to assess the impact of horizontal resolution on simulated East Asian summer monsoon climate, the differences in climate response between the time slice experiments of the present and that of IPCC SRES AR4 participating 21 models including coarser (T30) coupled model are compared. The higher resolution model from time slice experiment in the present climate show successful performance in simulating the northward migration and the location of the maximum rainfall during the rainy season over East Asia, although its rainfall amount was somewhat weak compared to the observation. Based on the present climate simulation, the possible change of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall in the future climate by the IPCC SRES A1B scenario, tends to be increased especially over the eastern part of Japan during July and September. The increase of the precipitation over this region seems to be related with the weakening of northwestern part of North Pacific High and the formation of anticyclonic flow over the south of Yangtze River in the future climate.

Impact of the human body in wireless propagation of medical implants for tumor detection

  • Morocho-Cayamcela, Manuel Eugenio;Kim, Myung-Sik;Lim, Wansu
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.19-26
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    • 2020
  • This paper analyses the feasibility of using implantable antennas to detect and monitor tumors. We analyze this setting according to the wireless propagation loss and signal fading produced by human bodies and their environment in an indoor scenario. The study is based on the ITU-R propagation recommendations and prediction models for the planning of indoor radio communication systems and radio local area networks in the frequency range of 300 MHz to 100 GHz. We conduct primary estimations on 915 MHz and 2.4 GHz operating frequencies. The path loss presented in most short-range wireless implant devices does not take into account the human body as a channel itself, which causes additional losses to wireless designs. In this paper, we examine the propagation through the human body, including losses taken from bones, muscles, fat, and clothes, which results in a more accurate characterization and estimation of the channel. The results obtained from our simulation indicates a variation of the return loss of the spiral antenna when a tumor is located near the implant. This knowledge can be applied in medical detection, and monitoring of early tumors, by analyzing the electromagnetic field behavior of the implant. The tumor was modeled under CST Microwave Studio, using Wisconsin Diagnosis Breast Cancer Dataset. Features like the radius, texture, perimeter, area, and smoothness of the tumor are included along with their label data to determine whether the external shape has malignant or benign physiognomies. An explanation of the feasibility of the system deployment and technical recommendations to avoid interference is also described.

Prediction of post fire load deflection response of RC flexural members using simplistic numerical approach

  • Lakhani, Hitesh;Singh, Tarvinder;Sharma, Akanshu;Reddy, G.R.;Singh, R.K.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.50 no.6
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    • pp.755-772
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    • 2014
  • A simplistic approach towards evaluation of complete load deflection response of Reinforced Concrete (RC) flexural members under post fire (residual) scenario is presented in this paper. The cross-section of the RC flexural member is divided into a number of sectors. Thermal analysis is performed to determine the temperature distribution across the section, for given fire duration. Temperature-dependent stress-strain curves for concrete and steel are then utilized to perform a moment-curvature analysis. The moment-curvature relationships are obtained for beams exposed to different fire durations. These are then utilized to obtain the load-deflection plots following pushover analysis. Moreover one of the important issues of modeling the initial stiffness giving due consideration to stiffness degradation due to material degradation and thermal cracking has also been addressed in a rational manner. The approach is straightforward and can be easily programmed in spreadsheets. The presented approach has been validated against the experiments, available in literature, on RC beam subjected to different fire durations viz. 1hr, 1.5hrs and 2hrs. Complete load-deflection curves have been obtained and compared with experimentally reported counterparts. The results also show a good match with the results obtained using more complicated approaches such as those involving Finite element (FE) modeling and conducting a transient thermal stress analysis. Further evaluation of the beams during fire (at elevated temperatures) was performed and a comparison of the mechanical behavior of RC beams under post fire and during fire scenarios is made. Detailed formulations, assumptions and step by step approach are reported in the paper. Due to the simplicity and ease of implementation, this approach can be used for evaluation of global performance of fire affected structures.

Study on the Recovery Process and Risk Management for Fusion Hydrogen Isotopes (핵융합 수소동위원소의 회수공정과 위험관리에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Woo-Chan;Moon, Hung-Man;Chang, Min-Ho;Lee, Hyeon-Gon;Hwang, Myung-Whan;Woo, In-Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.81-89
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    • 2019
  • This study deals with a process for recovering hydrogen isotopes from fusion exhaust gas. The goal of this process is to remove impurities, maximally recover only pure hydrogen isotopes. Experiments using hydrogen and deuterium were conducted to confirm the possibility of the recovery of hydrogen isotopes. In the exhaust gas containing H2, impurities was removed in the membrane process, and only pure H2 was recovered. And the H2 in the exhaust gas of the He-GDC(Glow Discharge Cleaning) process was recovered using a cryogenic adsorption process. In addition, HAZOP analysis was performed for qualitative risk assessment. For scenario analysis, the damage prediction ALOHA program was used to calculate the range of influence. Finally measures were sought to improve safety.

Prediction of Future Climate Change Using an Urban Growth Model in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (도시성장모델을 적용한 수도권 미래 기후변화 예측)

  • Kim, Hyun-Su;Jeong, Ju-Hee;Oh, In-Bo;Kim, Yoo-Keun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.367-379
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    • 2010
  • Future climate changes over the Seoul metropolitan area (SMA) were predicted by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using future land-use data from the urban growth model (SLEUTH) and forecast fields from ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM (IPCC scenario A1B). Simulations from the SLEUTH model with GIS information (slope, urban, hill-shade, etc.) derived from the water management information system (WAMIS) and the intelligent transportation systems-standard nodes link (ITS-SNL) showed that considerable increase by 17.1% in the fraction of urban areas (FUA) was found within the SMA in 2020. To identify the effects of the urban growth on the temperature and wind variations in the future, WRF simulations by considering urban growth were performed for two seasons (summer and winter) in 2020s (2018~2022) and they were compared with those in the present (2003~2007). Comparisons of model results showed that significant changes in surface temperature (2-meter) were found in an area with high urban growth. On average in model domain, positive increases of $0.31^{\circ}C$ and $0.10^{\circ}C$ were predicted during summer and winter, respectively. These were higher than contributions forced by climate changes. The changes in surface temperature, however, were very small expect for some areas. This results suggested that surface temperature in metropolitan areas like the SMA can be significantly increased only by the urban growth during several decades.

Association between Cold Temperature and Mortality of the Elderly in Seoul, Korea, 1992-2007 (서울지역 겨울철 기온과 노인의 사망률간의 관련성 연구(1992년~2007년))

  • Lee, Joung Won;Jeon, Hyung Jin;Cho, Yong Sung;Lee, Cheol Min;Kim, Ki Youn;Kim, Yoon Shin
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.747-755
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    • 2011
  • This study was investigated the relationship between the temperature and the mortality of aged (${\geq}65$ yr) during the winter seasons from 1992 to 2007 in Seoul, Korea by utilizing climate data and death records. The study also estimated the future risks by employing the projections of the population in Seoul, Korea and climate change scenario of Korea from 2011 to 2030. The limitation of this study was the impossibility in the prediction of daily mortality counts. Therefore, daily death numbers could be predicted based on the future population projection for Korea and the death records of 2005. The result indicated that risks increased by 0.27%, 0.52%, 0.32% and 0.41% in association with the $1^{\circ}C$ decrease in daily minimum temperature from the mortality counts of total, respiratory, cardiovascular, and cardiorespiratory in the past date while 0.31%, 0.42%, 0.59% and 0.66% in the future. Based on the results obtained from this study, it is concluded that the risk in the future will be higher than the past date although there is an uncertainty in estimating death counts in the future.

Prediction of Paddy Irrigation Demand in Nakdong River Basin Using Regional Climate Model Outputs (지역기후모형 자료를 이용한 낙동강 권역의 논 관개용수 수요량 예측)

  • Chung, Sang-Ok
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.7-13
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    • 2009
  • The paddy irrigation demand for Nakdong river basin in Korea due to the climate change have been analyzed using regional climate model outputs. High-resolution (27 ${\times}$ 27 km) climate data for SRES A2 scenario produced by the Meteorological Research Institute (METRI), South Korea, and the observed baseline climatology dataset (1971-2000) were used. The outputs from the ECHO-G GCM model were dynamically downscaled using the MM5 regional model by METRI. Maps showing the predicted spatial variations of changes in climate parameters and paddy irrigation requirements have been produced using the geographic information system. The results of this study showed that the average growing season temperature will increase steadily by 1.5 $^{\circ}C$ (2020s A2), 3.2 $^{\circ}C$ (2050s A2) and 5.2 $^{\circ}C$ (2080s A2) from the baseline (1971-2000) 19.8 $^{\circ}C$. The average growing season rainfall will change by -3.4 % (2020s A2), 0.0 % (2050s A2) and +16.5 % (2080s A2) from the baseline value 886 mm. Assuming paddy area and cropping pattern remain unchanged the average volumetric irrigation demands were predicted to increase by 5.3 % (2020s A2), 8.1 % (2050s A2) and 2.2 % (2080s A2) from the baseline value 1.159 ${\times}$ $10^6\; m^3$. These projections are different from the previous study by Chung (2009) which used a different GCM and downscaling method and projected decreasing irrigation demands. This indicates that one should be careful in interpreting the results of similar studies.

Transient Diagnosis and Prognosis for Secondary System in Nuclear Power Plants

  • Park, Sangjun;Park, Jinkyun;Heo, Gyunyoung
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.48 no.5
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    • pp.1184-1191
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    • 2016
  • This paper introduces the development of a transient monitoring system to detect the early stage of a transient, to identify the type of the transient scenario, and to inform an operator with the remaining time to turbine trip when there is no operator's relevant control. This study focused on the transients originating from a secondary system in nuclear power plants (NPPs), because the secondary system was recognized to be a more dominant factor to make unplanned turbine-generator trips which can ultimately result in reactor trips. In order to make the proposed methodology practical forward, all the transient scenarios registered in a simulator of a 1,000 MWe pressurized water reactor were archived in the transient pattern database. The transient patterns show plant behavior until turbine-generator trip when there is no operator's intervention. Meanwhile, the operating data periodically captured from a plant computer is compared with an individual transient pattern in the database and a highly matched section among the transient patterns enables isolation of the type of transient and prediction of the expected remaining time to trip. The transient pattern database consists of hundreds of variables, so it is difficult to speedily compare patterns and to draw a conclusion in a timely manner. The transient pattern database and the operating data are, therefore, converted into a smaller dimension using the principal component analysis (PCA). This paper describes the process of constructing the transient pattern database, dealing with principal components, and optimizing similarity measures.

VIRTUAL PREDICTION OF A RADIAL-PLY TIRE'S IN-PLANE FREE VIBRATION MODES TRANSMISSIBILITY

  • CHANG Y. P.;EL-GINDY M.
    • International Journal of Automotive Technology
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.149-159
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    • 2005
  • A full nonlinear finite element P185/70Rl4 passenger car radial-ply tire model was developed and run on a 1.7-meter-diameter spinning test drum/cleat model at a constant speed of 50 km/h in order to investigate the tire transient response characteristics, i.e. the tire in-plane free vibration modes transmissibility. The virtual tire/drum finite element model was constructed and tested using the nonlinear finite element analysis software, PAM-SHOCK, a nonlinear finite element analysis code. The tire model was constructed in extreme detail with three-dimensional solid, layered membrane, and beam finite elements, incorporating over 18,000 nodes and 24 different types of materials. The reaction forces of the tire axle in vertical (Z axis) and longitudinal (X axis) directions were recorded when the tire rolled over a cleat on the drum, and then the FFT algorithm was applied to examine the transient response information in the frequency domain. The result showed that this PI 85/70Rl4 tire has clear peaks of 84 and 45 Hz transmissibility in the vertical and longitudinal directions. This result was validated against more than 10 previous studies by either theoretical or experimental approaches and showed excellent agreement. The tire's post-impact response was also investigated to verify the numerical convergence and computational stability of this FEA tire model and simulation strategy, the extraordinarily stable scenario was confirmed. The tire in-plane free vibration modes transmissibility was successfully detected. This approach was never before attempted in investigations of tire in-plane free vibration modes transmission phenomena; this work is believed to be the first of its kind.