• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.4 no.3
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• pp.87-94
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• 1995

At both international and national levels, such as in the Rio Declaration and the EU's Fifth Environmental Action Plan, governments have committed themselves to the adoption of the precautionary principle (UNCED 1992, CEC 1992). These commitments mean that the existence of uncertainty in appraising policies and proposals for development should be acknowledged. Uncertainty arise in both the prediction of impacts and in the evaluation of their significance, particularly of those cumulative impacts which are individually insignificant but cumulatively damaging. The EC network of EIA experts, stated at their last meeting in Athens that indirect effects and the treatment of uncertainty are one of the main deficiencies of current EIA practice. Uncertainties in decision-making arise where choices have been made in the development of the policy or proposal, such as the selection of options, the justification for that choice, and the selection of different indicators to comply with different regulatory regimes. It is also likely that a weighting system for evaluating significance will have been used which may be implicit rather than explicit. Those involved in decision-making may employ different tolerances of uncertainty than members of the public, for instance over the consideration of the worst-case scenario. Possible methods for dealing with these uncertainties include scenarios, sensitivity analysis, showing points of view, decision analysis, postponing decisions and graphical methods. An understanding of the development of cumulative environmental impacts affords not only ecologic but also socio-economic investigations. Since cumulative impacts originate mainly in centres of urban or industrial development, in particular an analysis of future growth effects that might possibly be induced by certain development impacts. Not least it is seen as an matter of sustainability to connect this issue with ecological research. The serious attempt to reduce the area of uncertainty in environmental planning is a challenge and an important step towards reliable planning and sustainable development.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.39 no.6
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• pp.751-758
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• 2019

This study tested various assumptions that simplified the configuration of the numerical model for unsaturated zone's contaminant transport to simulate the pathway to exposed point. This study investigated the contaminant migration through in the pollutant exposure pathway of vadoze zone for risk assessment of the contaminated site. For the purpose, generic scenarios as well as contaminant-based scenarios were simulated using the numerical code for transport of the contaminant in the pathway. The finite-difference one-dimensional transport with adsorption and biodegradation were considered, and it also assumed that the initial concentration was also depleted over time. The results of the generic-scenario show that as the groundwater infiltration rate decreases, the longer the path from the source to the groundwater level, the lower the concentration at the point of inflow into the groundwater level. In particular, in the case of high biodegradation rate and rapid depletion of pollutant sources, statistically outliers were found in the simulated results and generic scenarios was good at prediction.

• Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.371-376
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• 2017

In this paper, we propose a magnetic resonant WPT(wireless power transfer) scenario using a large coil resonating at 6.78 MHz, and compare the characteristics through a three-dimensional electromagnetic field simulation and a magnetic resonant WPT equivalent circuit. The magnetic resonant WPT equivalent circuit proposed in this paper considers the parasitic capacitance generated between the coils in addition to the conventional equivalent circuit. Based on this analysis, we fabricated the magnetic resonant WPT coil and compared it with simulation prediction. As a result of comparison, the transfer characteristics and the resonance frequency shift can be predicted. Error proposed characteristics of equivalent circuit for the magnetic resonant WPT and the measured values are estimated to be ${\Delta}{\mid}S11{\mid}=1.31dB$ and ${\Delta}{\mid}S21{\mid}=1.21dB$, respectively.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.23-32
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• 2016

Today the issue of deterioration of industrial complexes that are located close to life space of residents has been raised as a cause of threats to the safety of local communities. In this study, in order to improve the current risk analysis and scope of community notification, simulated threat zones were comparatively analyzed by utilizing the threat zones of alternative accident scenarios and modes of seasonal weather, and the area with a high probability of damage upon the leakage of toxic substances was predicted by examining wind directions observed at each time slot for each season. In addition, limit evacuation time and minimum separation distance to minimize casualties were suggested, and a proposal to enable more reasonable safety measures for on-site workers and nearby residents made by reviewing the risk management plan currently utilized for emergency response.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.51 no.5
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• pp.25-34
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• 2009

The objective of this study is to evaluate the future potential climate and vegetation canopy change impact on a dam watershed hydrology. A $6,661.5\;km^2$ dam watershed, the part of Han-river basin which has the watershed outlet at Chungju dam was selected. The SWAT model was calibrated and verified using 9 year and another 7 year daily dam inflow data. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency ranged from 0.43 to 0.91. The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Coupled Global Climate Model3 (CGCM3) data based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) SRES (Special Report Emission Scenarios) B1 scenario was adopted for future climate condition and the data were downscaled by artificial neural network method. The future vegetation canopy condition was predicted by using nonlinear regression between monthly LAI (Leaf Area Index) of each land cover from MODIS satellite image and monthly mean temperature was accomplished. The future watershed mean temperatures of 2100 increased by $2.0^{\circ}C$, and the precipitation increased by 20.4 % based on 2001 data. The vegetation canopy prediction results showed that the 2100 year LAI of deciduous, evergreen and mixed on April increased 57.1 %, 15.5 %, and 62.5% respectively. The 2100 evapotranspiration, dam inflow, soil moisture content and groundwater recharge increased 10.2 %, 38.1 %, 16.6 %, and 118.9 % respectively. The consideration of future vegetation canopy affected up to 3.0%, 1.3%, 4.2%, and 3.6% respectively for each component.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.93-99
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• 2005

Up to date, the life extension of industrial plant structures has been strongly required in the field of iron-manufacturing company, atomic or power generation company and so on. Fault monitoring, maintenance of aging structural components, safety assessment and residual life prediction may be recognized as typical and/or practical methods in terms of life extension methods. Based on the construction of damage scenario, precise analysis method and development of the risk or reliability assessment, a number of studies have been carried out in this viewpoint. In conjunction with the finite element analysis technique, a practical procedure for the safety assessment of iron-manufacturing plant structures was developed in this paper with a particular interest in furnace. By virtue of the detailed finite element analyses for blust furnace under an operational condition, the validity of the proposed procedure for safety assessment was presented.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.101-111
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• 2014

The research was carried out in order to find climate factors which determine the distribution of Neolitsea sericea, and the potential habitats (PHs) under the current climate and three climate change scenario by using species distribution models (SDMs). Four climate factors; the minimum temperature of the coldest month (TMC), the warmth index (WI), summer precipitation (PRS), and winter precipition (PRW) : were used as independent variables for the model. Three general circulation models under A1B emission scenarios were used as future climate scenarios for the 2050s (2040~2069) and 2080s (2070~2099). Highly accurate SDMs were obtained for N. sericea. The model of distribution for N. sericea constructed by SDMs showed that minimum temperature of the coldest month (TMC) is a major climate factor in determining the distribution of N. sericea. The area above the $-4.4^{\circ}C$ of TMC revealed high occurrence probability of the N. sericea. Future PHs for N. sericea were projected to increase respectively by 4 times, 6.4 times of current PHs under 2050s and 2080s. It is expected that the potential of N. sericea habitats is expanded gradually. N. sericea is applicable as indicator species for monitoring in the Korean Peninsula. N. sericea is necessary to be monitored of potential habitats.

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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• 1999.11a
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• pp.107-114
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• 1999

The large-scale distribution of crops Is usually determined by climate. We present the results of a climate-crop prediction based on spatial bio-physical process model approach, implemented in a GIS (Geographic Information System) environment using several regional and global agriculture-environmental databases. The model utilizes daily climate data like temperature, rainfall, solar radiation being generated stocastically by in-built model weather generator to determine the daily biomass and finally the crop yield. Crops are characterized by their specific growing period requirements, photosynthesis, respiration properties and harvesting index properties. Temperature and radiation during the growing period controls the development of each crop. The model simulates geographic/spatial distribution of climate by which a crop-growing belt can also be determined. The model takes both irrigated and non-irrigated area crop productivity into account and the potential increase in productivity by the technical means like mechanization is not considered. All the management input given at the base year 1995 was kept same for the next twenty-year changes until 2015. The simulated distributions of crops under current climatic conditions coincide largely with the current agricultural or specific crop growing regions. Simulation with assumed weather generated derived climate change scenario illustrate changes in the agricultural potential. There are large regional differences in the response across the country. The north-south and east-west regions responded differently with projected climate changes with increased and decreased productivity depending upon the crops and scenarios separately. When water was limiting or facilitating as non-irrigated and irrigated area crop-production effects of temperature rise and higher $CO_2$ levels were different depending on the crops and accordingly their production. Rise in temperature led to yield reduction in case of maize and rice whereas a gain was observed for wheat crop, doubled $CO_2$ concentration enhanced yield for all crops and their several combinations behaved differently with increase or decrease in yields. Finally, with this spatial modeling approach we succeeded in quantifying the crop productivity which may bring regional disparities under the different climatic scenarios where one region may become better off and the other may go worse off.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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• v.9D no.5
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• pp.827-836
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• 2002

Moving object management systems manage spatiotemporal data, which change their location over tine such as people, animals, and cars. These moving object management systems can be applied to vehicle location tracking, digital battlefield, location-based service, and so on. The existing moving object management systems only manage past or future location of the moving objects separately. Therefore, they cannot suggest estimation method of uncertain past or future location of the moving objects. In this paper, we propose a moving object management system, which not only manages historical data of the moving objects, but also predicts past and future location of the moving objects using historical data stored in database. We define the moving objects for vehicle location tracking and propose a moving object database structure. Finally, we suggest an execution model of the proposed system and apply the execution model to a virtual scenario for vehicle tracking.

• Current Photovoltaic Research
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.39-43
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• 2020

In this study, we predict the generation of end-of-life photovoltaic modules when Feed in Tariff applied, in Republic of Korea. Based on the installation of photovoltaic modules, we prepared three different senarios in order to estimate the generation of end-of-life photovoltaic modules. The senarios are i) early worn-out, ii) mid worn-out and iii) late-worn out senario. We selected the mid worn-out senario to estimated the amount of end-of-life photovoltaic modules in this study. Establishment of the end-of-life module generation scenario predicted generation of end-of-life photovoltaic module, and forecasted generation amount of end-of-life module to which Feed in Tariff was applied in consideration of installed photovoltaic modules installed by Feed in Tariff support. The generation of Feed in Tariff-applied end-of-life modules increased from 2021 to 2025 compared to without Feed in Tariff, and since then, the Feed in Tariff-applied end-of-life modules were generated as waste modules during the relevant period (2021 ~ 2025).