• Title/Summary/Keyword: Scenario prediction

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Safety Assessment of a Metal Cask under Aircraft Engine Crash

  • Lee, Sanghoon;Choi, Woo-Seok;Seo, Ki-Seog
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.505-517
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    • 2016
  • The structural integrity of a dual-purpose metal cask currently under development by the Korea Radioactive Waste Agency (KORAD) was evaluated, through numerical simulations and a model test, under high-speed missile impact reflecting targeted aircraft crash conditions. The impact conditions were carefully chosen through a survey on accident cases and recommendations from literature. In the impact scenario, a missile flying horizontally hits the top side of the cask, which is freestanding on a concrete pad, with a velocity of 150 m/s. A simplified missile simulating a commercial aircraft engine was designed from an impact loade-time function available in literature. In the analyses, the dynamic behavior of the metal cask and the integrity of the containment boundary were assessed. The simulation results were compared with the test results for a 1:3 scale model. Although the dynamic behavior of the cask in the model test did not match exactly with the prediction from the numerical simulation, other structural responses, such as the acceleration and strain history during the impact, showed very good agreement. Moreover, the containment function of the cask survived the missile impact as expected from the numerical simulation. Thus, the procedure and methodology adopted in the structural numerical analyses were successfully validated.

A Study on Runoff Prediction according to Land Use Change Considering Uncetainty based on AR5 Scenario in Doam Dam Watershed (AR5 시나리오기반 불확실성을 고려한 토지이용 변화에 따른 도암댐 유역의 유출전망)

  • Kim, Jung Min;Moon, Soo Jin;Kim, Ji Hoon;kang, Boosik;Kim, Young Do
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.421-421
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    • 2015
  • 2007년 IPCC 4차 기후변화 평가보고서 발간 이후, 최근 제 5차 기후변화 평가보고서에 표준 온실가스 시나리오를 대표농도경로(Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP)로 새롭게 선정하여 발간되었다. 이러한 기후변화 시나리오를 적용하여 수자원변화를 예측하는 연구들이 진행되었다. 그러나 기후변화 모델을 제공하는 기관이 많고 전지구적인 스케일로 제공되고 있어 모델의 선택여부와 지역적인 특성으로 인해 발생하는 스케일 불일치 등 다양한 불확실성을 포함하고 있다. 또한, 본 연구 대상지역인 도암댐 유역은 상류에 고랭지 밭이 다수 위치해 있으며 2018년 동계올림픽을 유치하는 평창에 속해있어 2011년 이후로 급격한 개발이 이루어졌고 지속적으로 토지 이용변화가 일어나는 유역이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 RCP 4.5와 8.5시나리오를 대상으로 총 20개의 기후변화 모델 자료를 수집하였고 지역오차보정을 통해 지역적인 스케일의 불일치를 개선하고 미래시나리오에 대해서는 비정상성을 고려한 비정상성 분위사상법을 통해 미래 시나리오의 정확성을 높였다. 과거 토지이용변화추세를 반영하여 5가지의 미래토지이용변화 시나리오를 생성하고 이를 유역모형인 SWAT모형에 적용하여 미래기후변화와 토지이용변화를 모두 고려하여 도암댐 유역에서의 유출을 전망하였다.

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An Automotive Radar Target Tracking System Design using ${\alpha}{\beta}$ Filter and NNPDA Algorithm (${\alpha}{\beta}$ 필터 및 NNPDA 알고리즘을 이용한 차량용 레이더 표적 추적 시스템 설계)

  • Bae, JunHyung;Hyun, EuGin;Lee, Jong-Hun
    • IEMEK Journal of Embedded Systems and Applications
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.16-24
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    • 2011
  • Automotive Radar Systems are currently under development for various applications to increase accuracy and reliability. The target tracking is most important in single or multiple target environments for accuracy. The tracking algorithm provides smoothed and predicted data for target position and velocity(Doppler). To this end, the fixed gain filter(${\alpha}{\beta}$ filter, ${\alpha}{\beta}{\gamma}$ filter) and dynamic filter(Kalman filter, Singer-Kalman filter, etc) are commonly used. Gating is used to decide whether an observation is assigned to an existing track or new track. Gating algorithms are normally based on computing a statistical error distance between an observation and prediction. The data association takes the observation-to-track pairings that satisfied gating and determines which observation-to-track assignment will actually be made. For data association, NNPDA(Nearest Neighbor Probabilistic Data Association) algorithm is proposed. In this paper, we designed a target tracking system developed for an Automotive Radar System. We show the experimental results of the 77GHz FMCW radar sensor on the roads. Four tracking algorithms(${\alpha}{\beta}$ filter, ${\alpha}{\beta}{\gamma}$ filter, 2nd order Kalman filter, Singer-Kalman filter) have been compared and analyzed to evaluate the performance in test scenario.

Prediction of ballooning and burst for nuclear fuel cladding with anisotropic creep modeling during Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA)

  • Kim, Jinsu;Yoon, Jeong Whan;Kim, Hyochan;Lee, Sung-Uk
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.10
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    • pp.3379-3397
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    • 2021
  • In this study, a multi-physics modeling method was developed to analyze a nuclear fuel rod's thermo-mechanical behavior especially for high temperature anisotropic creep deformation during ballooning and burst occurring in Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA). Based on transient heat transfer and nonlinear mechanical analysis, the present work newly incorporated the nuclear fuel rod's special characteristics which include gap heat transfer, temperature and burnup dependent material properties, and especially for high temperature creep with material anisotropy. The proposed method was tested through various benchmark analyses and showed good agreements with analytical solutions. From the validation study with a cladding burst experiment which postulates the LOCA scenario, it was shown that the present development could predict the ballooning and burst behaviors accurately and showed the capability to predict anisotropic creep behavior during the LOCA. Moreover, in order to verify the anisotropic creep methodology proposed in this study, the comparison between modeling and experiment was made with isotropic material assumption. It was found that the present methodology with anisotropic creep could predict ballooning and burst more accurately and showed more realistic behavior of the cladding.

A Study on Runoff and Pollutant Loading Prediction Using AR5 RCP4.5 Scenario in Nakdong River Watershed (AR5 RCP4.5 시나리오를 이용한 낙동강 유역에서의 유출 및 오염부하 전망)

  • Kim, Jung Min;Kim, Young Do;Kang, Busik;Park, Jin Hyeog
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.111-111
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    • 2016
  • 최근 전 세계적으로 이상기후로 인해 극한 사상의 기후현상이 잦아지고 있으며 그로인한 피해가 확산되면서 관심이 높아지고 있다. 특히, 국내하천의 경우 높은 하상계수를 가지고 있는 만큼 수자원보전에 취약하고 수질의 문제 또한 대두되고 있다. 4대강 중 하나인 낙동강에는 8개의 보가 설치되었고 유역에 안동, 임하, 합천, 남강, 밀양댐 등 다기능댐이 있어 댐의 방류량이 낙동강의 유량에 큰 영향을 미치고 있다. 낙동강의 유량 및 수질을 관리하기 위해서는 이러한 현황들을 반영하여 유역관리를 포함한 통합적인 유량 및 수질관리가 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 IPCC에서 제공하는 AR5 RCP4.5 시나리오를 분위사상법(Quantile mapping)과 CF 다운스케일링 기법을 사용하여 유역에 맞게 상세화를 수행하였으며, 검 보정을 거친 SWAT 모형의 입력자료로 사용하여 낙동강 유역의 본류 및 지류의 미래 유출량 및 오염부하량을 예측하였다. 낙동강 유역에서의 미래기후변화 시나리오를 분석한 결과, 비홍수기에 32.3%, 홍수기에 31.1% 증가하는 것으로 나타났고, 2041 ~ 2070년도에 6%까지 증가하였다가 2071 ~ 2100년에 0.4% 감소하였다. 미래기후변화 시나리오를 SWAT 모형에 적용한 결과로는 주요 8개 지류에서 비슷한 패턴을 보였으며, 위천과 남강에서 각각 최대 45.5%, 16.6% 유출량이 증가하는 것으로 나타났다.

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A Study on Prediction and Optimization of Radio Interference through Radar Operation Scenario Analysis (레이다 운용시나리오 분석을 통한 전파간섭예측과 최적화 연구)

  • Yoo, Woo-Sung;Kim, Sung-Gyun;Kwon, Yong-Wook;Lim, Ji-Hoon
    • Journal of IKEEE
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.53-63
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    • 2021
  • As the types of radio equipment becomes more complex and diversified in various fields, radio interference occurs frequently. In the domestic situation where the territory is narrow, many systems are deployed in a specific highland with a good radio wave environment. Radar systems that transmit high power signals of the same band are sometimes deployed and operating at close distance. In this paper, the type of interference was classified for the actual radio wave interference phenomenon and appropriate signal interference parameters were derived. The power density of the interference signal was predicted using the analysis method and the effectiveness was verified through measurement. And, we propose a method to minimize interference by analyzing operating scenarios of interferer radar and victim radar.

A study on road ice prediction by applying road freezing evaluation model (도로 노면결빙 판정모델을 적용한 도로결빙 예측에 대한 연구)

  • Lim, Hee-Seob;Kim, Sang-Tae
    • Journal of the Korean Applied Science and Technology
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    • v.37 no.6
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    • pp.1507-1516
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    • 2020
  • This study analyzed the scenario for road freezing section by applying the road freezing evaluation algorithm. To apply road freezing algorithm, the influencing factors on road freezing were reviewed. Observation data from four points, Mokgam IC, Jeongneung tunnel, Seongsan bridge, and Yeomchang bridge were used for analysis. All observatories are installed on the expressway, and they are classified for the analysis of road freezing characteristics. When the difference between the road surface temperature and dew-point temperature of the road freezing evaluation algorithm was 3℃ or less, the section where road freezing occurred was checked. In addition, road freezing evaluation was derived through the change of the road surface condition and water film thickness of the freezing section.

Critical heat flux in a CANDU end shield - Influence of shielding ball diameter

  • Spencer, Justin
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.4
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    • pp.1343-1354
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    • 2022
  • Experiments were performed to measure the critical heat flux (CHF) on a vertical surface abutting a coarse packed bed of spherical particles. This geometry is representative of a CANDU reactor calandria tubesheet facing the end shield cavity during the in-vessel retention (IVR) phase of a severe accident. Deionized light water was used as the working fluid. Low carbon steel shielding balls with diameters ranging from 6.4 to 12.7 mm were used, allowing for the development of an empirical correlation of CHF as a function of shielding ball diameter. Previously published data is used to develop a more comprehensive empirical correlation accounting for the impacts of both shielding ball diameter and heating surface height. Tests using borosilicate shielding balls demonstrated that the dependence of CHF on shielding ball thermal conductivity is insignificant. The deposition of iron oxide particles transported from shielding balls to the heating surface is verified to increase CHF non-trivially. The results presented in this paper improve the state of the knowledge base permitting quantitative prediction of CHF in the CANDU end shield, refining our ability to assess the feasibility of IVR. The findings clarify the mechanisms governing CHF in this scenario, permitting identification of potential future research directions.

Towards Improving Causality Mining using BERT with Multi-level Feature Networks

  • Ali, Wajid;Zuo, Wanli;Ali, Rahman;Rahman, Gohar;Zuo, Xianglin;Ullah, Inam
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.16 no.10
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    • pp.3230-3255
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    • 2022
  • Causality mining in NLP is a significant area of interest, which benefits in many daily life applications, including decision making, business risk management, question answering, future event prediction, scenario generation, and information retrieval. Mining those causalities was a challenging and open problem for the prior non-statistical and statistical techniques using web sources that required hand-crafted linguistics patterns for feature engineering, which were subject to domain knowledge and required much human effort. Those studies overlooked implicit, ambiguous, and heterogeneous causality and focused on explicit causality mining. In contrast to statistical and non-statistical approaches, we present Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) integrated with Multi-level Feature Networks (MFN) for causality recognition, called BERT+MFN for causality recognition in noisy and informal web datasets without human-designed features. In our model, MFN consists of a three-column knowledge-oriented network (TC-KN), bi-LSTM, and Relation Network (RN) that mine causality information at the segment level. BERT captures semantic features at the word level. We perform experiments on Alternative Lexicalization (AltLexes) datasets. The experimental outcomes show that our model outperforms baseline causality and text mining techniques.

Comparative Evaluation of Reproducibility for Spatio-temporal Rainfall Distribution Downscaled Using Different Statistical Methods (통계적 공간상세화 기법의 시공간적 강우분포 재현성 비교평가)

  • Jung, Imgook;Hwang, Syewoon;Cho, Jaepil
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.65 no.1
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2023
  • Various techniques for bias correction and statistical downscaling have been developed to overcome the limitations related to the spatial and temporal resolution and error of climate change scenario data required in various applied research fields including agriculture and water resources. In this study, the characteristics of three different statistical dowscaling methods (i.e., SQM, SDQDM, and BCSA) provided by AIMS were summarized, and climate change scenarios produced by applying each method were comparatively evaluated. In order to compare the average rainfall characteristics of the past period, an index representing the average rainfall characteristics was used, and the reproducibility of extreme weather conditions was evaluated through the abnormal climate-related index. The reproducibility comparison of spatial distribution and variability was compared through variogram and pattern identification of spatial distribution using the average value of the index of the past period. For temporal reproducibility comparison, the raw data and each detailing technique were compared using the transition probability. The results of the study are presented by quantitatively evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of each method. Through comparison of statistical techniques, we expect that the strengths and weaknesses of each detailing technique can be represented, and the most appropriate statistical detailing technique can be advised for the relevant research.