• Title/Summary/Keyword: Scenario prediction

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Fault Tolerance Design of Uplink Command Processor (상향링크 명령 처리기의 결함 허용 설계)

  • Gu, Cheol Hoe
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.95-100
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    • 2003
  • Electronic equipment used in satellites are demanding extremely high reliability, so they should be designed to have immunity for some critical faults by using redundancy component. Generally, Communication satellites are assigned to meet the 15 years mission lifetime, of the analysis about faults must be performed to electronic equipments of satellite. This paper is a summary of the fault tolerance design research of command processor, the improvement of reliability and trade-off study of fault tolerance design result. The reliability prediction value of the satellite component used in this research was taken from Koreasat 3 and Kompsat 1. It is important to perform many trade-off studies for fault tolerance design, especially to choose the most proper fault tolerance method for the specified fault scenario.

A Model for Analyzing the Performance of Wireless Multi-Hop Networks using a Contention-based CSMA/CA Strategy

  • Sheikh, Sajid M.;Wolhuter, Riaan;Engelbrecht, Herman A.
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.11 no.5
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    • pp.2499-2522
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    • 2017
  • Multi-hop networks are a low-setup-cost solution for enlarging an area of network coverage through multi-hop routing. Carrier sense multiple access with collision avoidance (CSMA/CA) is frequently used in multi-hop networks. Multi-hop networks face multiple problems, such as a rise in contention for the medium, and packet loss under heavy-load, saturated conditions, which consumes more bandwidth due to re-transmissions. The number of re-transmissions carried out in a multi-hop network plays a major role in the achievable quality of service (QoS). This paper presents a statistical, analytical model for the end-to-end delay of contention-based medium access control (MAC) strategies. These strategies schedule a packet before performing the back-off contention for both differentiated heterogeneous data and homogeneous data under saturation conditions. The analytical model is an application of Markov chain theory and queuing theory. The M/M/1 model is used to derive access queue waiting times, and an absorbing Markov chain is used to determine the expected number of re-transmissions in a multi-hop scenario. This is then used to calculate the expected end-to-end delay. The prediction by the proposed model is compared to the simulation results, and shows close correlation for the different test cases with different arrival rates.

Identification of hydrogen flammability in steam generator compartment of OPR1000 using MELCOR and CFX codes

  • Jeon, Joongoo;Kim, Yeon Soo;Choi, Wonjun;Kim, Sung Joong
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.51 no.8
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    • pp.1939-1950
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    • 2019
  • The MELCOR code useful for a plant-specific hydrogen risk analysis has inevitable limitations in prediction of a turbulent flow of a hydrogen mixture. To investigate the accuracy of the hydrogen risk analysis by the MELCOR code, results for the turbulent gas behavior at pipe rupture accident were compared with CFX results which were verified by the American National Standard Institute (ANSI) model. The postulated accident scenario was selected to be surge line failure induced by station blackout of an Optimized Power Reactor 1000 MWe (OPR1000). When the surge line failure occurred, the flow out of the surgeline was strongly turbulent, from which the MELCOR code predicted that a substantial amount of hydrogen could be released. Nevertheless, the results indicated nonflammable mixtures owing to the high steam concentration released before the failure. On the other hand, the CFX code solving the three-dimensional fluid dynamics by incorporating the turbulence closure model predicted that the flammable area continuously existed at the jet interface even in the rising hydrogen mixtures. In conclusion, this study confirmed that the MELCOR code, which has limitations in turbulence analysis, could underestimate the existence of local combustible gas at pipe rupture accident. This clear comparison between two codes can contribute to establishing a guideline for computational hydrogen risk analysis.

Electric power consumption predictive modeling of an electric propulsion ship considering the marine environment

  • Lim, Chae-og;Park, Byeong-cheol;Lee, Jae-chul;Kim, Eun Soo;Shin, Sung-chul
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.765-781
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    • 2019
  • This study predicts the power consumption of an Electric Propulsion Ship (EPS) in marine environment. The EPS is driven by a propeller rotated by a propulsion motor, and the power consumption of the propeller changes by the marine environment. The propulsion motor consumes the highest percentage of the ships' total power. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the power consumption and determine the power generation capacity and the propeller capacity to design an efficient EPS. This study constructs a power estimation simulator for EPS by using a ship motion model including marine environment and an electric power consumption model. The usage factor that represents the relationship between power consumption and propulsion is applied to the simulator for power prediction. Four marine environment scenarios are set up and the power consumed by the propeller to maintain a constant ship speed according to the marine environment is predicted in each scenario.

Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change in Coastal and Offshore Fisheries of Korea under the RCP Scenarios: for the South Coast Region (RCP 시나리오를 적용한 한국 연근해어업의 기후변화 취약성 평가: 남해안 지역을 대상으로)

  • Kim, Bong-Tae;Lee, Joon-Soo;Suh, Young-Sang
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.37-48
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to assess the climate change vulnerability of coastal and offshore fisheries in the South Sea of Korea using the RCP scenarios. Based on the vulnerability defined by IPCC, the indicator-based method was applied. Exposure indicator was calculated through weighted sum of the sea temperature and salinity forecasted by National Institute of Fisheries Science, and the weights were obtained from the time-space distribution of each fisheries. Sensitivity indicator was determined by applying the catch proportion of fisheries to the sensitivity of fish species. The adaptive capacity was measured by survey of fisheries which represent the ability of the fishermen well. As a result of summarizing the above indicators, vulnerability of coastal fisheries is higher than offshore fisheries. This shows that measures against coastal fisheries are needed. In addition, the results of each scenario are somewhat different, so it is considered that accurate prediction of climate change is important for adaptation measures.

A Study on the Science and Technology Areas for the Third Technology Foresight of Korea (과학기술예측 대상기술 선정을 위한 주요 기술영역의 조사연구)

  • 정근화;고대승;이정근;손석호;변도영
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.110-126
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    • 2002
  • This study reviews and compares the selection procedures for science and technology topics to predict mid- and long-term trends in science and technology development in Korea, Japan, and the United Kingdom. It then identifies science and technology topics and future technologies for the third science and technology foresight of Korea. In Japan and the United Kingdom, non-technological topics that reflect socioeconomic needs are also select-ed along with technological ones. This study provides the following policy implications to enhance reliability and effectiveness of the third science and technology foresight of Korea. First, selection of science and technology topics should coincide with the national goal, taking into account development trends in science and technology and socioeconomic needs. Second, the current prediction methodologies such as "delphi" do not fully consider future uncertainties in science and technology development. A scenario method is, for example, needed to present coherent pictures of alternative futures. finally, the third technology foresight should select and include topics that reflect domestic conditions and global trend in technological progress. This study suggests 117 topics for the third science and technology foresight.foresight.

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A Sensing Data Collection Strategy in Software-Defined Mobile-Edge Vehicular Networks (SDMEVN) (소프트웨어 정의 모바일 에지 차량 네트워크(SDMEVN)의 센싱 데이터 수집 전략)

  • Nkenyereye, Lionel;Jang, Jong-Wook
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2018.10a
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    • pp.62-65
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    • 2018
  • This paper comes out with the study on sensing data collection strategy in a Software-Defined Mobile Edge vehicular networking. The two cooperative data dissemination are Direct Vehicular cloud mode and edge cell trajectory prediction decision mode. In direct vehicular cloud, the vehicle observe its neighboring vehicles and sets up vehicular cloud for cooperative sensing data collection, the data collection output can be transmitted from vehicles participating in the cooperative sensing data collection computation to the vehicle on which the sensing data collection request originate through V2V communication. The vehicle on which computation originate will reassemble the computation out-put and send to the closest RSU. The SDMEVN (Software Defined Mobile Edge Vehicular Network) Controller determines how much effort the sensing data collection request requires and calculates the number of RSUs required to support coverage of one RSU to the other. We set up a simulation scenario based on realistic traffic and communication features and demonstrate the scalability of the proposed solution.

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Drag reduction of a rapid vehicle in supercavitating flow

  • Yang, D.;Xiong, Y.L.;Guo, X.F.
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.35-44
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    • 2017
  • Supercavitation is one of the most attractive technologies to achieve high speed for underwater vehicles. However, the multiphase flow with high-speed around the supercavitating vehicle (SCV) is difficult to simulate accurately. In this paper, we use modified the turbulent viscosity formula in the Standard K-Epsilon (SKE) turbulent model to simulate the supercavitating flow. The numerical results of flow over several typical cavitators are in agreement with the experimental data and theoretical prediction. In the last part, a flying SCV was studied by unsteady numerical simulation. The selected computation setup corresponds to an outdoor supercavitating experiment. Only very limited experimental data was recorded due to the difficulties under the circumstance of high-speed underwater condition. However, the numerical simulation recovers the whole scenario, the results are qualitatively reasonable by comparing to the experimental observations. The drag reduction capacity of supercavitation is evaluated by comparing with a moving vehicle launching at the same speed but without supercavitation. The results show that the supercavitation reduces the drag of the vehicle dramatically.

A Conservative Safety Study on Low-Level Radioactive Waste Repository Using Radionuclide Release Source Term Model (선원항 모델을 사용한 저준위 방사성폐기물 처분장의 보수적인 안전성고찰)

  • Kim, Chang-Lak;Lee, Myung-Chan;Cho, Chan-Hee
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.63-70
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    • 1993
  • A simplified safety assessment is carried out on rock-cavern type disposal of LLW using the analytical repository source term (REPS) model. For reliable prediction of the leach rates for various radionuclides, degradation of concrete structures, corrosion rate of waste container, degree of corrosion on the container surface, and the characteristics of radionuclides are considered in the REPS model. The results of preliminary assessment show that Cs-137, Ni-63, and Sr-90 are dominant. For the parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, Latin hypercube sampling technique and rank correlation technique are applied. The results of the potential public health impacts show that radiological dose to intruder in the worst case scenario will be negligible and that more attention should be given to near-field performance.

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Prediction of Regional Drought considering Aspect and Elevation in Jeju Island under Future Climate Change (미래 기후변화에 따른 제주도의 사면과 해발고도별 가뭄 예측)

  • Park, Jong-Chul;Choi, Kwang-Jun;Song, Sung-Ho
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.649-660
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    • 2014
  • Spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation and temperature occur with regard to aspect and elevation of Mt. Halla in Jeju Island. Therefore, there is a need to predict regional drought associate with them to mitigate of impacts of drought. In this study, regional drought is predicted based on Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and standardized precipitation index (SPI) using future (2015~2044) climate change scenario RCP (representative concentration pathways) 4.5 classified as 24 regions according to aspect and elevation. The results show that number and duration of drought will be decrease in Jeju Island. However, severity of severe drought will be increase in western and northern aspect with under 200 meters above mean sea level. These findings provide primary information for developing the proactive strategies to mitigate impacts of drought by future climate change in Jeju Island.