• Title/Summary/Keyword: Scenario management

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Modeling the Effect of Intake Depth on the Thermal Stratification and Outflow Water Temperature of Hapcheon Reservoir (취수 수심이 합천호의 수온성층과 방류 수온에 미치는 영향 모델링)

  • Sun-A Chong;Hye-Ji Kim;Hye-Suk Yi
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.473-487
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    • 2023
  • Korea's multi-purpose dams, which were constructed in the 1970s and 1980s, have a single outlet located near the bottom for hydropower generation. Problems such as freezing damage to crops due to cold water discharge and an increase the foggy days have been raised downstream of some dams. In this study, we analyzed the effect of water intake depth on the reservoir's water temperature stratification structure and outflow temperature targeting Hapcheon Reservoir, where hypolimnetic withdrawal is drawn via a fixed depth outlet. Using AEM3D, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic water quality model, the vertical water temperature distribution of Hapcheon Reservoir was reproduced and the seasonal water temperature stratification structure was analyzed. Simulation periods were wet and dry year to compare and analyze changes in water temperature stratification according to hydrological conditions. In addition, by applying the intake depth change scenario, the effect of water intake depth on the thermal structure was analyzed. As a result of the simulation, it was analyzed that if the hypolimnetic withdrawal is changed to epilimnetic withdrawal, the formation location of the thermocline will decrease by 6.5 m in the wet year and 6.8 m in the dry year, resulting in a shallower water depth. Additionally, the water stability indices, Schmidt Stability Index (SSI) and Buoyancy frequency (N2), were found to increase, resulting in an increase in thermal stratification strength. Changing higher withdrawal elevations, the annual average discharge water temperature increases by 3.5℃ in the wet year and by 5.0℃ in the dry year, which reduces the influence of the downstream river. However, the volume of the low-water temperature layer and the strength of the water temperature stratification within the lake increase, so the water intake depth is a major factor in dam operation for future water quality management.

Measuring the Economic Value of Open Government Data: A Consumer Utility Perspective (공공데이터의 경제적 가치 측정: 소비자 효용 관점)

  • Chihong Jeon;Jaeung Sim;Daegon Cho
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2018
  • In many countries, governments invest a substantial amount of budget in open government data (OGD) for governmental performance and transparency. To understand the actual performance of such policies, the governments should measure the realized value. Many organizations and researchers have attempted to assess the value of OGD. However, they have neglected a perspective of consumers who benefit from OGD. Moreover, little research has quantified the economic value. This research examines extant methods of intangible asset valuation to quantify the economic value of OGD in a citizen perspective. In consideration of the extant research methods and the characteristics of OGD, the contingent valuation method is the most appropriate because it effectively reflects various users and their purpose of use. We then conduct a survey of citizens living in Seoul, Korea and assess the economic value of OGD provided by the Seoul government. Findings show that citizens' willingness to pay (WTP) differs across respondents' prior experience, tax resistance, perceived benefit and perceived reality of virtual scenario, but it does not differ across their demographics. WTP also significantly varies across the question formats. We discuss the reliability of the results and implications for future research.

Analysis of Long-term Changes for Fisheries Production and Marine-Ecosystem Index in Jinhae Bay Considering Climate Change (진해만의 수산생산량과 해양생태계 지표의 장기 변동 및 기후변화 요인 분석)

  • Woo-Hee Cho;Kyunghoi Kim;In-Cheol Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.291-298
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    • 2024
  • As an important fishing ground in the southern coast of Korea, Jinhae Bay is characterized by a high level of fisheries production. However, its marine-ecosystem has shifted owing to environmental changes such as industrial development and high water temperatures over the decades. This study analyzes the fisheries production, discards, mean trophic level, and fishing-in-balance index using annual fishing data from five regions surrounding Jinhae Bay for the period 2005-2022, as well as using additional forecasting trends by 2027 using ARIMA (Auto Regressive Intergrated Moving Average). The results shows, that the production in Goseong will decrease continuously by 2027, as compared with that in other areas. Additionally, byproduct management is considered necessary in Tongyeong. For the marine-ecosystem index, Tongyeong indicates stable catch ratio of large fish species and a fishing-in-balance exceeding 0. Finally, the annual catch variation for six pelagic fish species in Jinhae Bay by 2060 is estimated based on the IPCC climate-change scenario, in which the recent low level that decreased to approximately 20 thousand ton in early 2020 is projected to recover to approximately 40 thousand ton in the 2020s and 2040s, followed by an incremental decline by 2060.

Impacts assessment of Climate changes in North Korea based on RCP climate change scenarios II. Impacts assessment of hydrologic cycle changes in Yalu River (RCP 기후변화시나리오를 이용한 미래 북한지역의 수문순환 변화 영향 평가 II. 압록강유역의 미래 수문순환 변화 영향 평가)

  • Jeung, Se Jin;Kang, Dong Ho;Kim, Byung Sik
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.21 no.spc
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    • pp.39-50
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    • 2019
  • This study aims to assess the influence of climate change on the hydrological cycle at a basin level in North Korea. The selected model for this study is MRI-CGCM 3, the one used for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Moreover, this study adopted the Spatial Disaggregation-Quantile Delta Mapping (SDQDM), which is one of the stochastic downscaling techniques, to conduct the bias correction for climate change scenarios. The comparison between the preapplication and postapplication of the SDQDM supported the study's review on the technique's validity. In addition, as this study determined the influence of climate change on the hydrological cycle, it also observed the runoff in North Korea. In predicting such influence, parameters of a runoff model used for the analysis should be optimized. However, North Korea is classified as an ungauged region for its political characteristics, and it was difficult to collect the country's runoff observation data. Hence, the study selected 16 basins with secured high-quality runoff data, and the M-RAT model's optimized parameters were calculated. The study also analyzed the correlation among variables for basin characteristics to consider multicollinearity. Then, based on a phased regression analysis, the study developed an equation to calculate parameters for ungauged basin areas. To verify the equation, the study assumed the Osipcheon River, Namdaecheon Stream, Yongdang Reservoir, and Yonggang Stream as ungauged basin areas and conducted cross-validation. As a result, for all the four basin areas, high efficiency was confirmed with the efficiency coefficients of 0.8 or higher. The study used climate change scenarios and parameters of the estimated runoff model to assess the changes in hydrological cycle processes at a basin level from climate change in the Amnokgang River of North Korea. The results showed that climate change would lead to an increase in precipitation, and the corresponding rise in temperature is predicted to cause elevating evapotranspiration. However, it was found that the storage capacity in the basin decreased. The result of the analysis on flow duration indicated a decrease in flow on the 95th day; an increase in the drought flow during the periods of Future 1 and Future 2; and an increase in both flows for the period of Future 3.

The Effects of Psychological Contract Violation on OS User's Betrayal Behaviors: Window XP Technical Support Ending Case (심리적 계약 위반이 OS이용자의 배신 행동에 미치는 영향: 윈도우 XP 기술적 지원서비스 중단 사례)

  • Lee, Un-Kon
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.325-344
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    • 2014
  • Technical support of Window XP ended in March, 8, 2014, and it makes OS(Operating System) users fall in a state of confusion. Sudden decision making of OS upgrade and replacement is not a simple problem. Firms need to change the long term capacity plan in enterprise IS management, but they are pressed for time and cost to complete it. Individuals can not help selecting the second best plan, because the following OSs of Window XP are below expectations in performances, new PC sales as the opportunities of OS upgrade decrease, and the potential risk of OS technical support ending had not announced to OS users at the point of purchase. Microsoft as the OS vendors had not presented precaution or remedy for this confusion. Rather, Microsoft announced that the technical support of the other following OSs of Wndow XP such as Window 7 would ended in two years. This conflict between OS vendor and OS users could not happen in one time, but could recur in recent future. Although studies on the ways of OS user protection policy would be needed to escape from this conflict, few prior studies had conducted this issue. This study had challenge to cautiously investigate in such OS user's reactions as the confirmation with OS user's expectation in the point of purchase, three types of justice perception on the treatment of OS vendor, psychological contract violation, satisfaction and the other betrayal behavioral intention in the case of Window XP technical support ending. By adopting the justice perception on this research, and by empirically validating the impact on OS user's reactions, I could suggest the direction of establishing OS user protection policy of OS vendor. Based on the expectation-confirmation theory, the theory of justice, literatures about psychological contract violation, and studies about consumer betrayal behaviors in the perspective of Herzberg(1968)'s dual factor theory, I developed the research model and hypothesis. Expectation-confirmation theory explain that consumers had expectation on the performance of product in the point of sale, and they could satisfied with their purchase behaviors, when the expectation could have confirmed in the point of consumption. The theory of justice in social exchange argues that treatee could be willing to accept the treatment by treater when the three types of justice as distributive, procedural, and interactional justice could be established in treatment. Literatures about psychological contract violation in human behaviors explains that contracter in a side could have the implied contract (also called 'psychological contract') which the contracter in the other side would sincerely execute the contract, and that they are willing to do vengeance behaviors when their contract had unfairly been broken. When the psychological contract of consumers had been broken, consumers feel distrust with the vendors and are willing to decrease such beneficial attitude and behavior as satisfaction, loyalty and repurchase intention. At the same time, consumers feel betrayal and are willing to increase such retributive attitude and behavior as negative word-of-mouth, complain to the vendors, complain to the third parties for consumer protection. We conducted a scenario survey in order to validate our research model at March, 2013, when is the point of news released firstly and when is the point of one year before the acture Window XP technical support ending. We collected the valid data from 238 voluntary participants who are the OS users but had not yet exposed the news of Window OSs technical support ending schedule. The subject had been allocated into two groups and one of two groups had been exposed this news. The data had been analyzed by the MANOVA and PLS. MANOVA results indicate that the OSs technical support ending could significantly decrease all three types of justice perception. PLS results indicated that it could significantly increase psychological contract violation and that this increased psychological contract violation could significantly reduce the trust and increase the perceived betrayal. Then, it could significantly reduce satisfaction, loyalty, and repurchase intention, and it also could significantly increase negative word-of-month intention, complain to the vendor intention, and complain to the third party intention. All hypothesis had been significantly approved. Consequently, OS users feel that the OSs technical support ending is not natural value added service ending, but the violation of the core OS purchase contract, that it could be the posteriori prohibition of OS user's OS usage right, and that it could induce the psychological contract violation of OS users. This study would contributions to introduce the psychological contract violation of the OS users from the OSs technical support ending in IS field, to introduce three types of justice as the antecedents of psychological contract violation, and to empirically validate the impact of psychological contract violation both on the beneficial and retributive behavioral intentions of OS users. For practice, the results of this study could contribute to make more comprehensive OS user protection policy and consumer relationship management practices of OS vendor.

Modeling the Effects of Forest Management Scenarios on Aboveground Biomass and Wood Production: A Study in Mt. Gariwang, South Korea (산림경영활동에 따른 수종별 지상부생물량 및 목재생산량 변화 모델링: 가리왕산 모델숲을 대상으로)

  • Wonhee Cho;Wontaek Lim;Won Il Choi;Hee Moon Yang;Dongwook W. Ko
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.112 no.2
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    • pp.173-187
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    • 2023
  • The forest protection policies implemented in South Korea have resulted in the significant accumulation of forest. Moreover, the associated public interest has also been closely evaluated. As forests mature, there arises a need for forest management (FM) practices, such as thinning and harvesting. It is therefore essential to perform a scientific analysis of the long-term effects of FM. In this study, conducted in Mt. Gariwang, the effect of FM on forest succession and wood production (WP) were evaluated based on changes in aboveground biomass (AGB) using the LANDIS-II model. The FM consists of three scenarios (Selection, Shelterwood, and Two-stories), characterized based on the harvest intensity, frequency, and period. The model was applied to changes in the forest over 200 years. All scenarios show that the total AGB decreased immediately after thinning and harvesting. However, AGB recovery time differed among scenarios, with recovery to preharvest level occurring from 15 to 50 years after harvest; further, after 200 years, harvested forests had a greater total AGB than forests without FMs In particular, the changes in AGB of each species was different depending on its shade tolerance. The AGB of currently dominant shade-intolerant and mid-tolerant species decreased dramatically after harvesting. However, shade-tolerant species, dominant in the understory, continued to grow but were not harvested due to their small size. The cumulative WP for each scenario was estimated at 545.6, 141.6, and 299.9 tons/ha in Selection, Shelterwood, and Two-stories, respectively. The composition of WP differed according to harvest intensity and period. Most WP originated from shade-intolerant and mid-tolerant species in the early period. Later, most WP was from shade-tolerant species, which became dominant. The modeling approach used in this study is capable of analyzing the long-term effects of FM on changes in forests and WP. This study can contribute to decision making to guide FM methods for a variety of purposes, including WP and controlling forest composition and structure.

Assessing forest net primary productivity based on a process-based model: Focusing on pine and oak forest stands in South and North Korea (과정기반 모형을 활용한 산림의 순일차생산성 평가: 남북한 소나무 및 참나무 임분을 중심으로)

  • Cholho Song;Hyun-Ah Choi;Jiwon Son;Youngjin Ko;Stephan A. Pietsch;Woo-Kyun Lee
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.400-412
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    • 2023
  • In this study, the biogeochemistry management (BGC-MAN) model was applied to North and South Korea pine and oak forest stands to evaluate the Net Primary Productivity (NPP), an indicator of forest ecosystem productivity. For meteorological information, historical records and East Asian climate scenario data of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were used. For vegetation information, pine (Pinus densiflora) and oak(Quercus spp.) forest stands were selected at the Gwangneung and Seolmacheon in South Korea and Sariwon, Sohung, Haeju, Jongju, and Wonsan, which are known to have tree nurseries in North Korea. Among the biophysical information, we used the elevation model for topographic data such as longitude, altitude, and slope direction, and the global soil database for soil data. For management factors, we considered the destruction of forests in North and South Korea due to the Korean War in 1950 and the subsequent reforestation process. The overall mean value of simulated NPP from 1991 to 2100 was 5.17 Mg C ha-1, with a range of 3.30-8.19 Mg C ha-1. In addition, increased variability in climate scenarios resulted in variations in forest productivity, with a notable decline in the growth of pine forests. The applicability of the BGC-MAN model to the Korean Peninsula was examined at a time when the ecosystem process-based models were becoming increasingly important due to climate change. In this study, the data on the effects of climate change disturbances on forest ecosystems that was analyzed was limited; therefore, future modeling methods should be improved to simulate more precise ecosystem changes across the Korean Peninsula through process-based models.

A Study on the Application of RTLS Technology for the Automation of Spray-Applied Fire Resistive Covering Work (뿜칠내화피복 작업 자동화시스템을 위한 RTLS 기술 적용에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Kyoon-Tai
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.79-86
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    • 2009
  • In a steel structure, spray-applied fire resistive materials are crucial in preventing structural strength from being weakened in the event of a fire. The quality control of such materials, however, is difficult for manual workers, who can frequently be in short supply. These skilled workers are also very likely to be exposed to environmental hazards. Problems with construction work such as this, which are specifically the difficulty of achieving quality control and the dangerous nature of the work itself, can be solved to some degree by the introduction of automated equipment. It is, however, very difficult to automate the work process, from operation to the selection of a location for the equipment, as the environment of a construction site has not yet been structured to accommodate automation. This is a fundamental study on the possibility of the automation of spray-applied fire resistive coating work. In this study, the linkability of the cutting-edge RTLS to an automation system is reviewed, and a scenario for the automation of spray-applied fire resistive coating work and system composition is presented. The system suggested in this study is still in a conceptual stage, and as such, there are many restrictions still to be resolved. Despite this fact, automation is expected to have good effectiveness in terms of preventing fire from spreading by maintaining a certain level of strength at a high temperature when a fire occurs, as it maintains the thickness of the fire-resistive coating at a specified level, and secures the integrity of the coating with the steel structure, thereby enhancing the fire-resistive performance. It also expected that if future research is conducted in this area in relation to a cutting-edge monitoring TRS, such as the ubiquitous sensor network (USN) and/or building information model (BIM), it will contribute to raising the level of construction automation in Korea, reducing costs through the systematic and efficient management of construction resources, shortening construction periods, and implementing more precise construction

Estimation of Long-term Effects of Harvest Interval and Intensity, and Post-harvest Residue Management on the Soil Carbon Stock of Pinus densiflora Stands using KFSC Model (한국형 산림토양탄소모델(KFSC)을 이용한 수확 주기 및 강도와 수확 후 잔재물 처리방법에 따른 소나무림 토양탄소 저장량의 장기 변화 추정 연구)

  • Park, Chan-Woo;Yi, Koong;Lee, Jongyeol;Lee, Kyeong-Hak;Yi, Myong-Jong;Kim, Choonsig;Park, Gwan-Soo;Kim, Raehyun;Son, Yowhan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.102 no.1
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    • pp.82-89
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    • 2013
  • Harvest is one of the major disturbances affecting the soil carbon (C) dynamics in forests. However, researches on the long-term impact of periodic harvest on the soil C dynamics are limited since they requires rigorous control of various factors. Therefore, we adopted a modeling approach to determine the long-term impacts of harvest interval, harvest intensity and post-harvest residue management on soil C dynamics by using the Korean Forest Soil Carbon model (KFSC model). The simulation was conducted on Pinus densiflora S. et Z. stands in central Korea, and twelve harvest scenarios were tested by altering harvest intervals (50, 80, and 100-year interval), intensities (partial-cut harvest: 30% and clear-cut harvest: 100% of stand volume), and the residue managements after harvest (collection: 0% and retention: 100% of aboveground residue). We simulated the soil carbon stock for 400 years for each scenario. As a result, the soil C stocks in depth of 30 cm after 400 years range from 50.3 to 55.8 Mg C $ha^{-1}$, corresponding to 98.1 to 108.9% of the C stock at present. The soil C stock under the scenarios with residue retention was 2.5-11.0% higher than that under scenarios with residue collection. However, there was no significant impact of harvest interval and intensity on the soil C stock. The soil C dynamics depended on the dead organic matter dynamics derived from the amount of dead organic matter and growth pattern after harvest.

Design and Analysis of Online Advertising Expenditure Model based on Coupon Download (쿠폰 다운로드를 기준으로 하는 온라인 광고비 모델의 설계 및 분석)

  • Jun, Jung-Ho;Lee, Kyoung-Jun
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2010
  • In offline environment, unlike traditional advertising model through TV, newspaper, and radio, online advertising model draws instantaneous responses from potential consumers and it is convenient to assess. This kind of characteristics of Internet advertising model has driven the growth of advertising model among various Internet business models. There are, conventionally classified, CPM (Cost Per Mile), CPC (Cost Per Click), and CPS (Cost Per Sales) models as Internet advertising expenditure model. These can be examined in manners regarding risks that stakeholders should stand and degree of responsibility. CPM model that is based on number of advertisement exposure is mechanically exposed to users but not actually recognized by users resulting in risk of wasted expenditure by advertisers without any advertising effect. While on aspect of media, CPS model that is based on conversion action is the most risky model because of the conversion action such as product purchase is determined by capability of advertisers not that of media. In this regard, while there are issue of CPM and CPS models disadvantageously affecting only one side of Internet advertising business model value network, CPC model has been evaluated as reasonable both to advertisers and media, and occupied the largest segment of Internet advertising market. However, CPC model also can cause fraudulent behavior such as click fraud because of the competition or dishonest amount of advertising expenditure. On the user aspect, unintentionally accessed advertisements can lead to more inappropriate expenditure from advertisers. In this paper, we suggest "CPCD"(Cost Per Coupon Download) model. This goes beyond simple clicking of advertisements and advertising expenditure is exerted when users download a coupon from advertisers, which is a concept in between CPC and CPS models. To achieve the purpose, we describe the scenario of advertiser perspective, processes, participants and their benefits of CPCD model. Especially, we suggest the new value in online coupon; "possibility of storage" and "complement for delivery to the target group". We also analyze the working condition for advertiser by a comparison of CPC and CPCD models through advertising expenditure simulation. The result of simulation implies that the CPCD model suits more properly to advertisers with medium-low price products rather than that of high priced goods. This denotes that since most of advertisers in CPC model are dealing with medium-low priced products, the result is very interesting. At last, we contemplate applicability of CPCD model in ubiquitous environment.