• Title/Summary/Keyword: Scenario evaluation

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Analyzing The Economic Impact of The Fire Risk Reduction at Regional Level in Goyang City (지역단위 화재 위험도 저감의 고양시 경제적 파급효과 분석)

  • Son, Minsu;Cho, Dongin;Park, Chang Keun;Ko, Hyun A;Jung, Seunghyun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.685-693
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    • 2021
  • This study examined the fire risk of the region in Goyang City using the spatial information data of buildings. The economic damage by industry was assessed according to the probability of fire risk. The study area was confined to Goyang-si, Gyeonggi-do, and the same fire risk reduction rate was applied to each region for the convenience of analysis. The possibility of fire was derived based on the buildings' density and usage in the area by National GIS building-integrated information standard data. The calculation of economic damage by industry in Goyang City due to the fire risk was calculated by combining the Goyang-si industry-related model produced by matching with 30 industrial categories in Input-Output Statistics of Korea Bank and 20 industrial categories in the Goyang-si business survey and the possibility of fire. The basic scenario of production impossibility during six months and business loss due to fire was established and analyzed based on the supply model. The analysis showed that Ilsan-dong-gu, Ilsan-seo-gu, and Deokyang-gu suffered the most economic damage. The "electricity, gas, steam, and water business" showed the greatest loss by industry.

Safety Evaluation of Evacuation in a Dormitory Girls' High School based on PAPS (PAPS에 기반한 여자고등학교 기숙사생의 피난 안전성 평가)

  • Jeon, Seung-duk;Kong, Ha-sung
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.469-481
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    • 2022
  • This study is for increasing evacuation safety by analyzing RSET(the required safe escape time) through the arrangement of personnel by floor and by room while evacuating in a Girls' High School Dormitory. For this study, PAPS(Physical Activity Promotion System) results that have not been studied so far were analyzed and reflected in evacuation simulations on the premise that individual student's physical strength can affect evacuation. Based on the PAPS results, four scenarios were applied. In addition, evacuation simulation using the pathfinder program was conducted in two situations: the evacuation route was assigned or not. Scenario 4 was the fastest at 168.5 seconds of RSET in assigning evacuation routes among scenarios. As a result of this study, the arrangement of students focusing on improving their academic ability and student life guidance excluding student physical strength has problem. In order to solve this problem, it is effective to place C group students(low grade on PAPS) on low floors and A group students(high grade on PAPS) on high floors and to assign evacuation routes in each room. In the future, the following ways need to be more studied. A study on how to increase evacuation safety through practical evacuation training, the way of assessing evacuation safety reflecting the lifestyle and physical strength of girls, the evacuation route assignment according to the fire occurrence point, and the method to secure evacuation routes in the event of a fire near stairs or entrances should be conducted.

Evaluation of Segment Lining Fire Resistance Based on PP Fiber Dosage and Air Contents (세그먼트 라이닝의 PP섬유 혼입량과 공기량 변화에 따른 화재저항 특성 평가)

  • Choi, Soon-Wook;Kang, Tae Sung
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.469-479
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    • 2021
  • As a material for preventing spalling of concrete, the effectiveness of PP fiber has already been confirmed. However, it is necessary to consider the maximum temperature that occurs during a fire, and to solve the mixing problem and the strength reduction problem that occur depending on the mixing amount. In this study, the fire resistance performance of tunnel segment linings according to the PP fiber content and air volume under the RABT fire scenario was investigated. As a result, no spalling or cross-sectional loss occurred in all test specimens, and when the PP fiber content was small, the maximum temperature was relatively high and the maximum temperature arrival time was also fast. On the other hand, no trend was found for the maximum temperature and arrival time according to the difference in air volume. In the internal temperature distribution results for the PP fiber mixing amount of 0.75, 1.0, 1.5, and 2.0 kg/m3, the results of 0.75 and 1.0 kg/m3 showed similar temperature distribution, and the results of 1.5 and 2.0 kg/m3 were similar. It was confirmed that the internal temperature distribution tends to decrease at the same depth when the amount of PP fiber mixed is large, and it was confirmed that a remarkable difference occurred from the results of 1.0 kg/m3 and 1.5 kg/m3 of PP fiber mixed amounts.

Evaluation of VMAT Dose Accuracy According to Couch Rotation in Stereotactic Radiation Surgery of Metastatic Brain Cancer (전 이성 뇌 암의 정위 방사선수술에서 Couch 회전에 따른 VMAT의 선량 정확성 평가)

  • Na, Gwui Geum;Park, Byoung Suk;Cha, Woo Jung;Park, Yong Chul
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.33
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    • pp.117-125
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: To purpose of this study is to find the correlation of the Set-up error according to the couch rotation and suggest additional margin setting for the GTV. Target and Method: Each scenario treatment plan was created by making the frequency of non-coplanar beams different among all beams. The set-up error value was measured by using the Exact System and the dose accuracy was evaluated by creating a re-treatment plan. Results: When the couch was rotated by 30°, 45°, 60°, and 90°, the mean of the X-axis values was measured to be 0.29 mm, 0.26 mm, 0.51 mm, and 0.08 mm, respectively. The mean of the Y-axis values was measured to be 0.75 mm, 0.5mm, 0.35 mm, and 0.29 mm, respectively. The mean of the Z-axis values was measured to be 0.5 mm, 0.28 mm, 0.22 mm, and 0.1 mm, respectively. There were dose reductions of 0.1%, 3.1%, 1.9% in D99 for 1-NC VMAT, 2-NC VMAT, and 3-NC VMAT, respectively. Conclusion: When treating with 50% or more of non-coplanar beams among total beams, image verification is required. And it is considered to make the treatment plan by adding a 1.5 mm margin to the GTV.

Deep Learning-Based Prediction of the Quality of Multiple Concurrent Beams in mmWave Band (밀리미터파 대역 딥러닝 기반 다중빔 전송링크 성능 예측기법)

  • Choi, Jun-Hyeok;Kim, Mun-Suk
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.13-20
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    • 2022
  • IEEE 802.11ay Wi-Fi is the next generation wireless technology and operates in mmWave band. It supports the MU-MIMO (Multiple User Multiple Input Multiple Output) transmission in which an AP (Access Point) can transmit multiple data streams simultaneously to multiple STAs (Stations). To this end, the AP should perform MU-MIMO beamforming training with the STAs. For efficient MU-MIMO beamforming training, it is important for the AP to estimate signal strength measured at each STA at which multiple beams are used simultaneously. Therefore, in the paper, we propose a deep learning-based link quality estimation scheme. Our proposed scheme estimates the signal strength with high accuracy by utilizing a deep learning model pre-trained for a certain indoor or outdoor propagation scenario. Specifically, to estimate the signal strength of the multiple concurrent beams, our scheme uses the signal strengths of the respective single beams, which can be obtained without additional signaling overhead, as the input of the deep learning model. For performance evaluation, we utilized a Q-D (Quasi-Deterministic) Channel Realization open source software and extensive channel measurement campaigns were conducted with NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) to implement the millimeter wave (mmWave) channel. Our simulation results demonstrate that our proposed scheme outperforms comparison schemes in terms of the accuracy of the signal strength estimation.

Evaluation of Flood Regulation Service of Urban Ecosystem Using InVEST mode (InVEST 모형을 이용한 도시 생태계의 홍수 조절서비스 평가)

  • Lee, Tae-ho;Cheon, Gum-sung;Kwon, Hyuk-soo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.51-64
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    • 2022
  • Along with the urbanization, the risk of urban flooding due to climate change is increasing. Flood regulation, one of the ecosystem services, is implemented in the different level of function of flood risk mitigation by the type of ecosystem such as forests, arable land, wetlands etc. Land use changes due to development pressures have become an important factor in increasing the vulnerability by flash flood. This study has conducted evaluating the urban flood regulation service using InVEST UFRM(Urban Flood Risk Model). As a result of the simulation, the potential water retention by ecosystem type in the event of a flash flood according to RCP 4.5(10 year frequency) scenario was 1,569,611 tons in urbanized/dried areas, 907,706 tons in agricultural areas, 1,496,105 tons in forested areas, 831,705 tons in grasslands, 1,021,742 tons in wetlands, and 206,709 tons in bare areas, the water bodies was estimated to be 38,087 tons. In the case of more severe 100-year rainfall, 1,808,376 tons in urbanized/dried areas, 1,172,505 tons in agricultural areas, 2,076,019 tons in forests, 1,021,742 tons in grasslands, 47,603 tons in wetlands, 238,363 tons in bare lands, and 52,985 tons in water bodies. The potential economic damage from flood runoff(100 years frequency) is 122,512,524 thousand won in residential areas, 512,382,410 thousand won in commercial areas, 50,414,646 thousand won in industrial areas, 2,927,508 thousand won in Infrastructure(road), 8,907 thousand won in agriculture, Total of assuming a runoff of 50 mm(100 year frequency) was estimated at 688,245,997 thousand won. In a conclusion. these results provided an overview of ecosystem functions and services in terms of flood control, and indirectly demonstrated the possibility of using the model as a tool for policy decision-making. Nevertheless, in future research, related issues such as application of models according to various spatial scales, verification of difference in result values due to differences in spatial resolution, improvement of CN(Curved Number) suitable for the research site conditions based on actual data, and development of flood damage factors suitable for domestic condition for the calculation of economic loss.

Evaluation of water quality in the Sangsa Lake under climate change by combined application of HSPF and AEM3D (HSPF 와 AEM3D를 이용한 기후변화에 따른 상사호 유역의 수질오염 부하 및 댐 내 수질 변화 특성 분석)

  • Goh, Nayeon;Kim, Jaeyoung;Seo, Dongil
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.11
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    • pp.877-886
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    • 2022
  • This study was carried out to analyze how the flow and water quality of the Sangsa Lake (juam control basin) change according to future climate change and what countermeasures are needed. Aquatic Ecosystem Model) was used in conjunction. As climate change scenarios, RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of AR5 (5th Assessment Report) according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used. For the climate change scenario, detailed data on the Sangsa Lake basin were used by the Korea Meteorological Administration, and after being evaluated as a correction and verification process for the 10-year period from 2012 to 2021, the present, 2025-2036, 2045- The summer period from June to August and the winter period from December to February were analyzed separately for each year by dividing it into 2056 and 2075-2086. RCP 8.5 was higher than RCP 4.5 as an arithmetic mean for the flow rate of the watershed of the superior lake for the entire simulation period, and TN and TP also showed a tendency to be higher at RCP 4.5. However, in RCP 8.5, the outflow of pollutants decreased during the dry season and the outflow of pollutants increased during the summer, indicating that the annual pollutant outflow was concentrated during the flood season, and it is analyzed that countermeasures are needed.

Big Data Management in Structured Storage Based on Fintech Models for IoMT using Machine Learning Techniques (기계학습법을 이용한 IoMT 핀테크 모델을 기반으로 한 구조화 스토리지에서의 빅데이터 관리 연구)

  • Kim, Kyung-Sil
    • Advanced Industrial SCIence
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.7-15
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    • 2022
  • To adopt the development in the medical scenario IoT developed towards the advancement with the processing of a large amount of medical data defined as an Internet of Medical Things (IoMT). The vast range of collected medical data is stored in the cloud in the structured manner to process the collected healthcare data. However, it is difficult to handle the huge volume of the healthcare data so it is necessary to develop an appropriate scheme for the healthcare structured data. In this paper, a machine learning mode for processing the structured heath care data collected from the IoMT is suggested. To process the vast range of healthcare data, this paper proposed an MTGPLSTM model for the processing of the medical data. The proposed model integrates the linear regression model for the processing of healthcare information. With the developed model outlier model is implemented based on the FinTech model for the evaluation and prediction of the COVID-19 healthcare dataset collected from the IoMT. The proposed MTGPLSTM model comprises of the regression model to predict and evaluate the planning scheme for the prevention of the infection spreading. The developed model performance is evaluated based on the consideration of the different classifiers such as LR, SVR, RFR, LSTM and the proposed MTGPLSTM model and the different size of data as 1GB, 2GB and 3GB is mainly concerned. The comparative analysis expressed that the proposed MTGPLSTM model achieves ~4% reduced MAPE and RMSE value for the worldwide data; in case of china minimal MAPE value of 0.97 is achieved which is ~ 6% minimal than the existing classifier leads.

Evaluation of Future Hydrologic Risk of Drought in Nakdong River Basin Using Bayesian Classification-Based Composite Drought Index (베이지안 분류 기반 통합가뭄지수를 활용한 낙동강 유역의 미래 가뭄에 대한 수문학적 위험도 분석)

  • Kim, Hyeok;Kim, Ji Eun;Kim, Jiyoung;Yoo, Jiyoung;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.309-319
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    • 2023
  • Recently, the frequency and intensity of meteorological disasters have increased due to climate change. In South Korea, there are regional differences in vulnerability and response capability to cope with climate change because of regional climate characteristics. In particular, drought results from various factors and is linked to extensive meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural impacts. Therefore, in order to effectively cope with drought, it is necessary to use a composite drought index that can take into account various factors, and to evaluate future droughts comprehensively considering climate change. This study evaluated hydrologic risk(${\bar{R}}$) of future drought in the Nakdong River basin based on the Dynamic Naive Bayesian Classification (DNBC)-based composite drought index, which was calculated by applying Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Streamflow Drought Index (SDI), Evaporate Stress Index (ESI) and Water Supply Capacity Index (WSCI) to the DNBC. The indices used in the DNBC were calculated using observation data and climate scenario data. A bivariate frequency analysis was performed for the severity and duration of the composite drought. Then using the estimated bivariate return periods, hydrologic risks of drought were calculated for observation and future periods. The overall results indicated that there were the highest risks during the future period (2021-2040) (${\bar{R}}$=0.572), and Miryang River (#2021) had the highest risk (${\bar{R}}$=0.940) on average. The hydrologic risk of the Nakdong River basin will increase highly in the near future (2021-2040). During the far future (2041-2099), the hydrologic risk decreased in the northern basins, and increased in the southern basins.

Analysis of Construction Conditions Change due to Climate Change (기후변화에 의한 건설시공환경 변화 분석)

  • Bae, Deg Hyo;Lee, Byong Ju;Jung, Il Won
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.4D
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    • pp.513-521
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    • 2008
  • The objective of this study is the evaluation of the impact on the construction condition due to historical observation data and IPCC SRES A2 climate change scenario. For this purpose, daily precipitation and daily mean temperature data which have been observed over the past 30 years by Korea Meteorological Administration are collected and applied. Also, A2 scenarios during 2011~2040 and 2051~2080 are used for this analysis. According to the results of trend analyses on annual precipitation and annual mean temperature, they are on the increase mostly. The available working day and the day occurred an extreme event are used as correlation indices between climate factor and construction condition. For the past observation data, linear regression and Mann-Kendall test are used to analyze the trend on the correlation index. As a result, both working day and extreme event occurrence day are increased. Likewise, for the future, variation analysis showed the similar result to that of the past and the occurrence frequency of extreme events is increased obviously. Therefore, we can project to increase flood damage potential on the construction site by climate change.