• Title/Summary/Keyword: Scenario evaluation

Search Result 634, Processing Time 0.028 seconds

Process Evaluation Model based on Goal-Scenario for Business Activity Monitoring

  • Baek, Su-Jin;Song, Young-Jae
    • Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
    • /
    • v.9 no.4
    • /
    • pp.379-384
    • /
    • 2011
  • The scope of the problems that could be solved by monitoring and the improvement of the recognition time is directly correlated to the performance of the management function of the business process. However, the current monitoring process of business activities decides whether to apply warnings or not by assuming a fixed environment and showing expressions based on the design rules. Also, warnings are applied by carrying out the measuring process when the event attribute values are inserted at every point. Therefore, there is a limit for distinguishing the range of occurrence and the level of severity in regard to the new external problems occurring in a complicated environment. Such problems cannot be ed. Also, since it is difficult to expand the range of problems which can be possibly evaluated, it is impossible to evaluate any unexpected situation which could occur in the execution period. In this paper, a process-evaluating model based on the goal scenario is suggested to provide constant services through the current monitoring process in regard to the service demands of the new scenario which occurs outside. The new demands based on the outside situation are analyzed according to the goal scenario for the process activities. Also, by using the meta-heuristic algorithm, a similar process model is found and identified by combining similarity and interrelationship. The process can be stopped in advance or adjusted to the wanted direction.

Development of Timely Counter-scenario on Small Scale Engagements (소규모 교전에서의 적시 대응 시나리오 개발 방안 연구)

  • Ahn, Euikoog;Chang, Dae S.;Pyun, JaiJeong;Kwon, Yongjin James;Park, Sang C.
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
    • /
    • v.22 no.2
    • /
    • pp.63-71
    • /
    • 2013
  • Developing future weapons systems has become increasingly complicated and costly. There, modeling and simulation techniques have been highly interested in developing the defense systems. Modeling and simulation techniques provide a means to simulate military training, strategies, military doctrines, and weapons acquisition. In this paper, we proposed a small scale engagement scenario generation method for engagement M&S model. Generated scenario is one of critical factors in the field of commander training, operational analysis, and tactical evaluation. The objective of this paper is to develop a scenario generation method for small scale engagement using the FSA(Finite State Automata) and DFS(Depth First Search) algorithm. The proposed method is verified using a one-on-one combat engagement scenario between assault ship and reconnaissance ship. Also, we are visualized using Delta3D$^{TM}$.

Study on the Scenario Earthquake Determining Methods Based on the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (확률론적 지진재해도를 이용한 시나리오 지진의 결정기법에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, In-Kil;Nakajima, Masato;Choun, Young-Sun;Yun, Kwan-Hee
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
    • /
    • v.8 no.6 s.40
    • /
    • pp.23-29
    • /
    • 2004
  • The design earthquake used for the seismic analysis and design of NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) is determined by the deterministic or probabilistic methods. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis(PSHA) for the nuclear power plant sites was performed for the probabilistic seismic risk assessment. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the nuclear power plant site had been completed as a part of the probabilistic seismic risk assessment. The probabilistic method become a resonable method to determine the design earthquakes for NPPs. In this study, the defining method of the probability based scenario earthquake was established, and as a sample calculation, the probability based scenario earthquakes were estimated by the de-aggregation of the probabilistic seismic hazard. By using this method, it is possible to define the probability based scenario earthquakes for the seismic design and seismic safety evaluation of structures. It is necessary to develop the rational seismic source map and the attenuation equations for the development of reasonable scenario earthquakes.

Evaluation of Fire-induced Damage to Structural Members in Tunnels (화재에 의한 터널구조물 시공재료의 손상 평가)

  • Chang, Soo-Ho;Choi, Soon-Wook;Kwon, Jong-Wook;Bae, Gyu-Jin
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.26 no.3C
    • /
    • pp.219-228
    • /
    • 2006
  • In this study, a series of fire tests was carried out to evaluate fire-induced damage to structural members in tunnels. From the tests, the loss amount of concrete materials under the RWS scenario was slightly bigger than under the RABT fire scenario. Especially under the RWS fire scenario where the maximum temperature is over $1,200^{\circ}C$, the loss of concrete materials was mainly induced by melting. Generally, the loss of materials in reinforced concrete was slightly smaller than that in unreinforced concrete. Depending upon an applied fire scenario, fire-induced damage to shotcrete was quite different. From the realtime investigation of a specimen surface by a digital camcorder, it was proved that the material loss under the RABT fire scenario was mainly induced by spalling. However, it was also revealed that although fire-induced damage in the initial heating stage under the RWS was so close to that under the RABT, the material loss under the RWS at the later stage after 50 minutes elapsed since fire initiation was induced not by spalling but by melting.

A Study on the Test Evaluation Method of AEB (V2P) Considering the Road Environment in Korea and Euro NCAP Test Protocol v3.0.1 (국내 도로환경과 Euro NCAP VRU Test Protocol v3.0.1을 고려한 AEB(V2P) 시험평가 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Kwon, Byeong-Heon;Lee, Seon-Bong
    • Journal of Auto-vehicle Safety Association
    • /
    • v.11 no.4
    • /
    • pp.28-38
    • /
    • 2019
  • In the world, traffic accidents and environmental pollution caused by the increase of vehicles are becoming a serious social problem. According to the 2016 data published by the Korea Highway Traffic Authority, Korea owns 49.9 vehicles per 100 people. This is the 28th largest number among the 35 OECD member countries. In addition, the number of deaths from traffic accidents in Korea totaled 4,292, of which 1,714 were caused by traffic accidents involving vehicles and pedestrians. To reduce these human casualties, the automotive industry is constantly working on the development and commercialization of Adaptive Driver Assist System (ADAS). ADAS is the system providing convenience and safeness for drivers. In general, ADAS consists of Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB), Highway Driving Assist (HDA), Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC), Lane Keeping Assist System (LKAS). Among them, the AEB detects the possibility of collision by the vehicle itself and plays a role of avoiding the collision or reducing the damage through active braking. For such AEB, Euro NCAP has been developing test-evaluation methods for the vulnerable since 2017. Therefore, In this paper analyzes the scenario of Euro NCAP VRU Test Protocol v3.0.1, which will be established in 2020, and proposes test conditions according to the Korean road traffic law. In addition, the reliability of the proposed scenario and test conditions was verified by comparing and analyzing the proposed theoretical evaluation formulas and actual test results.

Deterministic Optimal Simulation of Spatial Growth Form for Urbanized Area Using CA Model and Simplified WSM-AHP Techniques (CA기법과 WSM-AHP 간편법을 이용한 도시확산의 결정론적 최적 모의)

  • Kim, Dae-Sik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
    • /
    • v.14 no.2
    • /
    • pp.55-64
    • /
    • 2008
  • This study aims to analyze the sensitivity of WSM(weighted scenario method)-AHP method according to variation of nonlinear exponent for accessibility criteria, which are used to make urbanization potential maps with the optimal weighting value for multiple criteria in grid-based GIS technique. Besides this study tried to develop WSM-AHP2 which is simplified by using rank of the potential value for each scenario. The two methods were applied to the test area, Suwon city located south area of Seoul, with time series land-use maps of 1986 and 1996. The evaluation system of urbanization potential have 7 criteria including 6 accessibility criteria. The results of WSM-AHP2, the optimal weighting values and their corresponding potential maps, have almost similar with those of WSM-AHP. In the application of CA(cellular automata) model for expansion of urbanized area using the three potential maps by WSM-AHP, WSM-AHP2, and specialists's AHP evaluation, it also showed that the accuracy of simulation for actual urban area is the highest in the potential map of WSM-AHP, followed by WSM-AHP2 and specialists's AHP evaluation. From the results of this study, WSM-AHP and simplified WSM-AHP2 will be used to generate the optimal potential maps for land-use planning in urban fringe area.

Development and Evaluation of a Video Discharge Education Program focusing on Mother-infant Interaction for Mothers of Premature Infants

  • Ra, Jin Suk;Lim, Jiyoung
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
    • /
    • v.42 no.7
    • /
    • pp.936-946
    • /
    • 2012
  • Purpose: This study was done to develop a video discharge education program focusing on mother-infant interaction to facilitate the development of maternal role confidence for mothers of premature infants. Methods: The process of the program was based on the Network-based Instructional System Design suggested by Jung (1999). For the content of the program, needs and concerns of mothers of premature infants found on web sites and existing literature were analyzed. Based on this content, the scenario and the video were developed. Nurses and mothers of premature infants participated in the process of testing the content validity, scenario development, and evaluation of final video production. The final video has two parts and lasts 21 minutes. The first part focuses on mother-premature infant interaction and the second part focuses on health management of infants. Results: Eleven mothers of premature infants participated in the evaluation of the appropriateness of the video as a teaching method and for educational content. They reported that the content on mother-infant interaction, maternal sensitivity, and maternal role confidence was especially beneficial. Conclusion: The findings indicate that video program is effective for education on maternal-premature infant interaction and the use of video in practical settings is strongly recommended.

AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK-BASED POST-CLOSURE SAFETY EVALUATION OF COMPLEX RADIATION EXPOSURE SITUATIONS IN RADIOACTIVE WASTE DISPOSAL

  • Seo, Eun-Jin;Jeong, Chan-Woo;Sato, Seichi
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
    • /
    • v.35 no.1
    • /
    • pp.6-11
    • /
    • 2010
  • Embodying the safety of radioactive waste disposal requires the relevant safety criteria and the corresponding stylized methods to demonstrate its compliance with the criteria. This paper proposes a conceptual model of risk-based safety evaluation for integrating complex potential radiation exposure situations in radioactive waste disposal. For demonstrating compliance with a risk constraint, the approach deals with important exposure scenarios from the viewpoint of the receptor to estimate the resulting risk. For respective exposure situations, it considers the occurrence probabilities of the relevant exposure scenarios as their probability of giving rise to doses to estimate the total risk to a representative person by aggregating the respective risks. In this model, an exposure scenario is simply constructed with three components:radionuclide release, radionuclide migration and environment contamination, and interaction between the contaminated media and the receptor. A set of exposure scenarios and the representative person are established from reasonable combinations of the components, based on a balance of their occurrence probabilities and the consequences. In addition, the probability of an exposure scenario is estimated on the assumption that the initiating external factors influence release mechanisms and transport pathways, and its effect on the interaction between the environment and the receptor may be covered in terms of the representative person. This integrated approach enables a systematic risk assessment for complex exposure situations of radioactive waste disposal and facilitates the evaluation of compliance with risk constraints.

An Empirical Study on the Investment Evaluation of Korean Global Companies Using a Real Option Valuation Model (우리나라 글로벌 기업의 실물옵션을 이용한 투자안 평가 실증연구)

  • Jeong, Eui-Jong
    • Plant Journal
    • /
    • v.8 no.3
    • /
    • pp.42-48
    • /
    • 2012
  • Under traditional analysis of the capital budgeting, NPV, it is assumed that management cannot react to deviation from the expected scenario of cash flow at the time of evaluation. In practice, however, it is less likely that the expected scenario will come true when new information arrives and uncertainty is resolved. Uncertainty and risk can be influenced through 'managerial flexibility', which becomes a central instrument for value creation. Real option framework including option to defer, option for staged investment, option to alter, option to abandon, option to switch, etc. takes this managerial flexibility into account. Therefore, it is more appropriate to use real option method to evaluate the project than the traditional DCF(discounted cash flow) tool if the firm has high volatility of the expected returns.

  • PDF

Phase Portrait Analysis-Based Safety Control for Excavator Using Adaptive Sliding Mode Control Algorithm (적응형 슬라이딩 모드 제어를 이용한 위상 궤적 해석 기반 굴삭기의 안전제어 알고리즘 개발)

  • Oh, Kwang Seok;Seo, Ja Ho;Lee, Geun Ho
    • Journal of Drive and Control
    • /
    • v.15 no.3
    • /
    • pp.8-13
    • /
    • 2018
  • This paper presents a phase portrait analysis-based safety control algorithm for excavators, using adaptive sliding mode control. Since working postures and material types cause the excavator's rotational inertia to vary, the rotational inertia was estimated, and this estimation was used to design an adaptive sliding mode controller for collision avoidance of the excavator. In order to estimate the rotational inertia, the recursive least-squares estimation with multiple forgetting was applied with the information of the swing velocity of the excavator. For realistic evaluation, an actual working scenario-based performance evaluation was conducted. Based on the estimated rotational inertia and an analysis of estimation errors, sliding mode control inputs were computed. The actual working scenario-based performance evaluation of the designed safety algorithm was conducted, and the results showed that the developed safety control algorithm can efficiently avoid a collision with an object in consideration of rotational inertia variations.