• Title/Summary/Keyword: Scenario evaluation

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Economic Evaluation of ODA Project - A Case of Poultry Farm in Uganda - (우간다 양계부문 ODA 사업의 농가단위 경제성 평가)

  • Yang, Heon-Yong;Seo, Il-Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.67-79
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    • 2020
  • As globalization, international cooperation has grown in importance. In accordance with this trend, Korea has been receiving high demands from international organizations about expanding the scale of Official Development Assistance(ODA) in line with its improved national status. In addition, in the economic aspect of Korea, the ODA project is expected to provide new growth opportunities in the mid- to long-term by promoting cooperation with developing countries. Uganda is an area with high strategic value due to good agricultural conditions and favorable geographical conditions. The poultry industry is a business that is generally carried out to the Ugandan, but due to economic problems such as initial investment cost, most of them have raised poultry on a small scale which is not enough for main income. This paper proposes the construction and operation plan of adapting to small poultry farms in the village-intensive type to sustainable income for residents in Uganda through ODA project in Korea's agricultural technology. The economic feasibility was analyzed from the long-term perspective when the initial construction cost was supported or not and the poultry species ratio was adjusted in terms of initial and operating costs. Economic analysis was performed using Net Present Value(NPV) method. As of after 10 years, when operating in the form of shifting kuroiler to layers, it was estimated to earn about 700,000 ugx more than when only kuroiler is raised, and it is able to reduce about 14 million ugx from the initial cost than when only raising layers. As of 20 years, the most profitables scenario was the breeding of 100 kuroilers and 400 layers methods. however, this case was anlayzed to be unsuitable for Uganda farmers, with initial costs more than three times higher than the shifting method of the kuroiler to layers. If the initial construction cost is supported by ODA project, the initial investment cost can be recovered in the first year with the shifting method, whereas raising only layers take two years to recoup the cost. In the meantime, when studying livestock industry in Uganda, it was examined by relying on statistical data, but this paper is meaningful in that it predicted how much it is economically effective based on field experience.

Development of cardiopulmonary resuscitation training program for firefighters (화재진압대원을 위한 심폐소생술 훈련프로그램 개발)

  • Jeong-Won, Son
    • The Korean Journal of Emergency Medical Services
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.161-184
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: This study aimed to develop a cardiopulmonary resuscitation training program for firefighters (FD-CPR) to help improve the survival rate after cardiac arrest on the fireground. Methods: The FD-CPR was developed following 3 steps of the FD-CPR instructional design based on the behaviorism theory. The content of the program was validated by a group of 7 experts using the contents validity index (CVI) and through a pilot-test. Results: A scenario consisting of 7 procedures, and a skill performance evaluation tool consisting of 16 questions were developed. The evaluation tool average score for the difficulty test was 41.16% (even) and that for the discrimination test was 0.32 (high). Subsequently, an 80 min training program was developed. As verified by the 7 experts through the CVI, it was as high as 1.0. Conclusion: The FD-CPR developed domestically for the first time in this study was effective in enhancing the CPR performance skills of the firefighters. If FD-CPR is added to the curriculum at the Fire Service Academy educational course for the new firefighters, the CPR performance skills could be maintained. Furthermore, the program can facilitate a better survival rate for colleagues having cardiac arrest on the field.

Study on security method for scenario-based smartphone vulnerability (시나리오 기반의 스마트폰 취약점에 대한 보안방안 연구)

  • Lee, Jaeho;Son, Minwoo;Lee, Sang-Joon
    • Asia-pacific Journal of Multimedia Services Convergent with Art, Humanities, and Sociology
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    • v.8 no.6
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    • pp.835-844
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    • 2018
  • Recently, as the number of smartphone users has been increasing worldwide, various services such as electronic payment, internet use, and financial settlement are being used as a smartphone. In addition, researches for home appliance control and automobile control using smartphone are conducted. As such, smartphone users can enjoy a more convenient life, but by hacking smartphones, tapping texts and conversations on smartphones, tracking location through spy apps, DDoS attacks using smartphones, and malicious apps When a message is received at a specific telephone number when using a micropayment, the corresponding text message is transmitted to a remote server, thereby increasing the risk of leakage of personal information and the like. Therefore, in this paper, we define the risk factors of the smartphone that are caused by the internal and external environmental, physical, contents (apps) of the smartphone through the smartphone that we use in real life, We propose a method to check vulnerability of smartphone security solution such as CC evaluation and the most effective response technique for each risk of smartphone by defining the technique.

Quantitative Deterioration and Maintenance Profiles of Typical Steel Bridges based on Response Surface Method (응답면 기법을 이용한 강교의 열화 및 보수보강 정량화 이력 모델)

  • Park, Seung-Hyun;Park, Kyung Hoon;Kim, Hee Joong;Kong, Jung-Sik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.6A
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    • pp.765-778
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    • 2008
  • Performance Profiles are essential to predict the performance variation over time for the bridge management system (BMS) based on risk management. In general, condition profiles based on experts opinion and/or visual inspection records have been used widely because obtaining profiles based on real performance is not easy. However, those condition profiles usually don't give a good consistency to the safety of bridges, causing practical problems for the effective bridge management. The accuracy of performance evaluation is directly related to the accuracy of BMS. The reliability of the evaluation is important to produce the optimal solution for distributing maintenance budget reasonably. However, conventional methods of bridge assessment are not suitable for a more sophisticated decision making procedure. In this study, a method to compute quantitative performance profiles has been proposed to overcome the limitations of those conventional models. In Bridge Management Systems, the main role of performance profiles is to compute and predict the performance of bridges subject to lifetime activities with uncertainty. Therefore, the computation time for obtaining an optimal maintenance scenario is closely related to the efficiency of the performance profile. In this study, the Response Surface Method (RSM) based on independent and important design variables is developed for the rapid computation. Steel box bridges have been investigated because the number of independent design variables can be reduced significantly due to the high dependency between design variables.

Economic evaluation of a weekly administration of a sustained-release injection of recombinant human growth hormone for the treatment of children with growth hormone deficiency (소아 성장호르몬결핍증 치료에 사용되는 성장호르몬 서방형 주사제의 경제성 평가)

  • Kang, Hye-Young;Kim, Duk Hee;Yang, Sei-Won;Kim, Yoon-Nam;Kim, Miseon
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.52 no.11
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    • pp.1249-1259
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    • 2009
  • Purpose:From a societal perspective, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of a novel sustained-release injection of recombinant human growth hormone (GH) administered on a weekly basis compared with that of the present daily GH injection for the treatment of children with GH deficiency. Methods:Health-related utility for GH therapy was measured based on the visual analogue scale. During July 2008, caregivers of 149 children receiving GH therapy form 2 study sites participated in a web-based questionnaire survey. The survey required the caregivers to rate their current subjective utility with daily GH injections or expected utility of weekly GH injections. Because there was no difference in the costs of the daily and weekly therapies, for the purposes of this study, only drug acquisition costs were considered. Results:Switching from daily to weekly injection of GH increased the utility from 0.584 to 0.784 and incurred an extra cost of 4,060,811 Korean won (KW) per year. The incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) for a base case was 20,305,055 KW per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Scenario analyses showed that the ICUR ranged from 15,751,198 to 25,489,929 KW per QALY. Conclusion:The ICUR for a base case and worst case scenario analyses ranged from 0.85 to 1.37-times per capita gross domestic product of Korea, which is considered to be within the generally accepted willingness-to-pay threshold. Thus, it is concluded that switching from daily to weekly injection of GH would be cost-effective.

Experimental Study on Combined Failure Damage of Bi-directional Prestressed Concrete Panel under Impact-Fire Loading (충돌 후 화재에 대한 이방향 프리스트레스트 콘크리트 패널부재의 복합 파괴손상에 관한 실험적 연구)

  • Yi, Na-Hyun;Lee, Sang-Won;Choi, Seung-Jai;Kim, Jang-Ho Jay
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.429-440
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    • 2014
  • Since the World Trade Center and Pentagon attacks in 2001, terror, military attack, or man-made disaster caused impact, explosion, and fire accident have frequently occured on civil infrastructures. However, structural behavior researches on major Prestressed Concrete (PSC) infrastructures such as bridges, tunnels, Prestressed Concrete Containment Vessel (PCCVs), and LNG tanks under extreme loading are significantly lacking. Especially, researches on possible secondary fire scenarios after terror, bombing, collision of vehicles and vessels on concrete structures have not been performed domestically where most of the past researches related to extreme loadings on structures focused on an independent isolated extreme loading scenario. Due to the outcry of public concerns and anxiety of potential terrorist attacks on major infrastructures and structures, a study is urgently needed at this time. Therefore, in this study, the bi-directional prestressed concrete $1400{\times}1000{\times}300mm$ panels applied with 430 kN prestressing force using unbonded prestressing thread bars were experimentally evaluated under impact, fire, and impact-fire combined loadings. Due to test site restrictions, impact tests were performed with 14 kN impactor with drop heights of 10m and 3.5 m to evaluate impact resistance capacity. Also, fire and impact-fire combined loading were tested using RABT fire loading curve. The measured residual strength capacities of PSC and RC specimens applied with impact, fire, impact-fire combined loadings were compared with the residual strength capacity of undamaged PSC and RC specimens for evaluation. The study results can be used as basic research data for related research areas such as protective design and numerical simulation under extreme loading scenarios.

Groundwater Recharge Evaluation on Yangok-ri Area of Hongseong Using a Distributed Hydrologic Model (VELAS) (분포형 수문모형(VELAS)을 이용한 홍성 양곡리 일대 지하수 함양량 평가)

  • Ha, Kyoochul;Park, Changhui;Kim, Sunghyun;Shin, Esther;Lee, Eunhee
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.161-176
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    • 2021
  • In this study, one of the distributed hydrologic models, VELAS, was used to analyze the variation of hydrologic elements based on water balance analysis to evaluate the groundwater recharge in more detail than the annual time scale for the past and future. The study area is located in Yanggok-ri, Seobu-myeon, Hongseong-gun, Chungnam-do, which is very vulnerable to drought. To implement the VELAS model, spatial characteristic data such as digital elevation model (DEM), vegetation, and slope were established, and GIS data were constructed through spatial interpolation on the daily air temperature, precipitation, average wind speed, and relative humidity of the Korea Meteorological Stations. The results of the analysis showed that annual precipitation was 799.1-1750.8 mm, average 1210.7 mm, groundwater recharge of 28.8-492.9 mm, and average 196.9 mm over the past 18 years from 2001 to 2018 in the study area. Annual groundwater recharge rate compared to annual precipitation was from 3.6 to 28.2% with a very large variation and average 14.9%. By the climate change RCP 8.5 scenario, the annual precipitation from 2019 to 2100 was 572.8-1996.5 mm (average 1078.4 mm) and groundwater recharge of 26.7-432.5 mm (average precipitation 16.2%). The annual groundwater recharge rates in the future were projected from 2.8% to 45.1%, 18.2% on average. The components that make up the water balance were well correlated with precipitation, especially in the annual data rather than the daily data. However, the amount of evapotranspiration seems to be more affected by other climatic factors such as temperature. Groundwater recharge in more detailed time scale rather than annual scale is expected to provide basic data that can be used for groundwater development and management if precipitation are severely varied by time, such as droughts or floods.

Environmental Damage to Nearby Crops by Hydrogen Fluoride Accident (불화수소 누출사고 사례를 통한 주변 농작물의 환경피해)

  • Kim, Jae-Young;Lee, Eunbyul;Lee, Myeong Ji
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.54-60
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    • 2019
  • BACKGROUND: Hydrogen fluoride is one of the 97 accident preparedness substances regulated by the Ministry of Environment (Republic of Korea) and chemical accidents should be managed centrally due to continual occurrence. Especially, hydrogen fluoride has a characteristic of rapid diffusion and very toxic when leaking into the environment. Therefore, it is important to predict the impact range quickly and to evaluate the residual contamination immediately to minimize the human and environmental damages. METHODS AND RESULTS: In order to estimate the accident impact range, the off-site consequence analysis (OCA) was performed to the worst and alternative scenarios. Also, in order to evaluate the residual contamination of hydrogen fluoride in crop, the samples in accident site were collected from 15-divided regions (East direction from accident sites based on the main wind direction), and the concentration was measured by fluoride ($F^-$) ion-selective electrode potentiometer (ISE). As a result of the OCA, the affected distance by the worst scenario was estimated to be >10 km from the accident site and the range by the alternative scenario was estimated to be about 1.9 km. The residual contamination of hydrogen fluoride was highest in the samples near the site of the accident (E-1, 276.82 mg/kg) and tended to decrease as it moved eastward. Meanwhile, the concentrations from SE and NE (4.96~28.98 mg/kg) tended to be lower than the samples near the accident site. As a result, the concentration of hydrogen fluoride was reduced to a low concentration within 2 km from the accident site (<5 mg/kg), and the actual damage range was estimated to be around 2.2 km. Therefore, it is suggested that the results are similar to those of alternative accident scenarios calculated by OCA (about 1.9 km). CONCLUSION: It is difficult to estimate the chemical accident-affecting range/region by the OCA evaluation, because it is not possible to input all physicochemical parameters. However simultaneous measurement of the residual contamination in the environment will be very helpful in determining the diffusion range of actual chemical accident.

Analysis of Microclimate Impact According to Development Scenarios of Vacant Land in Downtown Seoul - A Comparison of Wind Speed and Air Temperature - (서울 도심 공지의 개발 시나리오에 따른 미기후 영향 분석 - 풍속 및 기온 비교 -)

  • Baek, Jiwon;Park, Chan;Park, Somin;Choi, Jaeyeon;Song, Wonkyong;Kang, Dain;Kim, Suryeon
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.105-116
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    • 2021
  • In the city of high population density crowded with buildings, Urban Heat Island (UHI) is intensified, and the city is vulnerable to thermal comfort. The maintenance of vacant land in downtown is treated as a factor that undermines the residential environment, spoils the urban landscape, and decreases the economic vitality of the whole region. Therefore, this study compared the effects on microclimate in the surrounding area according to the development scenarios targeting the vacant land in Songhyeon-dong, Jongno-gu, Seoul. The status quo, green oriented, building oriented and green-building mediation scenarios were established and ENVI-met was used to compare and analyze the impact of changes in wind speed, air temperature and mean radiant temperature (MRT) within 1 km of the target and the target site. The result of inside and 1 km radius the targeted area showed that the seasonal average temperature decreased and the wind speed increased when the green oriented scenario was compared with the current state one. It was expected that the temperature lowered to -0.73 ℃ or increased to 1.5 ℃ in summer, and the wind speed was affected up to 210 meters depending on the scenario. And it was revealed that green area inside the site generally affects inside area, but the layout and size of the buildings affect either internal and external area. This study is expected to help as a decision-making support tool for developing Songhyeon-dong area and to be used to reflect the part related to microclimate on the future environmental effects evaluation system.

Prediction of Species Distribution Changes for Key Fish Species in Fishing Activity Protected Areas in Korea (국내 어업활동보호구역 주요 어종의 종분포 변화 예측)

  • Hyeong Ju Seok;Chang Hun Lee;Choul-Hee Hwang;Young Ryun Kim;Daesun Kim;Moon Suk Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.802-811
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    • 2023
  • Marine spatial planning (MSP) is a crucial element for rational allocation and sustainable use of marine areas. Particularly, Fishing Activity Protected Areas constitute essential zones accounting for 45.6% designated for sustainable fishing activities. However, the current assessment of these zones does not adequately consider future demands and potential values, necessitating appropriate evaluation methods and predictive tools for long-term planning. In this study, we selected key fish species (Scomber japonicus, Trichiurus lepturus, Engraulis japonicus, and Larimichthys polyactis) within the Fishing Activity Protected Area to predict their distribution and compare it with the current designated zones for evaluating the ability of the prediction tool. Employing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), we used species distribution models (such as MaxEnt) to assess the movement and distribution changes of these species owing to future variations. The results indicated a 30-50% increase in the distribution area of S. japonicus, T. lepturus, and L. polyactis, whereas the distribution area of E. japonicus decreased by approximately 6-11%. Based on these results, a species richness map for the four key species was created. Within the marine spatial planning boundaries, the overlap between areas rated "high" in species richness and the Fishing Activity Protected Area was approximately 15%, increasing to 21% under the RCP 2.6 scenario and 34% under the RCP 8.5 scenario. These findings can serve as scientific evidence for future evaluations of use zones or changes in reserve areas. The current and predicted distributions of species owing to climate change can address the limitations of current use zone evaluations and contribute to the development of plans for sustainable and beneficial use of marine resources.