• 제어로봇시스템학회논문지
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• 제14권11호
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• pp.1180-1188
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• 2008

As many systems depend on electronics, concern for fault tolerance is growing rapidly in the safety critical system such as intelligent vehicle. In order to make system fault tolerant, there has been a body of research mainly from aerospace field including predictive hybrid redundancy by Lee. Although the predictive hybrid redundancy has the fault tolerant mechanism to satisfy the fault tolerant requirement of safety crucial system such as x-by-wire system, it suffers form the variability of prediction performance according to the input feature of system. As an alternative to the prediction method of predictive hybrid redundancy for robust fault tolerant, Kalman prediction has attracted some attention because of its well-known and often-used with its structure called Kalman hybrid redundancy. In addition, several numerical simulation results are given where the Kalman hybrid redundancy outperforms with predictive smoothing voter.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제26권6호
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• pp.130-136
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• 2011

Since out of a lot of traffic problems traffic accidents cause damage to life and properties of people, it stands out as one of traffic problems which needs improvement, and the loss due to traffic accident negatively affects not only the parties to the accident but also the national economy. Thus, continual concern of the government toward traffic safety is getting bigger and lately each local government is preparing a basic plan for traffic safety and vitalizing traffic safety policies. As expanding the responsibility and role of local governments for traffic safety, traffic safety measures which are based on the characteristics of each local government should be studied. Most of analytical methods in the existing traffic accidents prediction models with macroscopic vision focus on socioeconomic variables such as local population and the number of registered vehicles, and present a great deal of prediction error when they are applied in practice. In this context, this study proposed a traffic accident prediction model in respect of macroscopic level for autonomous districts (administrative districts) of Seoul City. The model development was not based on the entire city but on the type of local land usage (development density) whose relationship with traffic accident frequency was analyzed.

• 한국철도학회논문집
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.170-175
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• 2005

This study presents a prediction of a failure rate in a safety required system that consists of a embedded control system, requiring a satisfaction of a quantitative safety requirement. International Standards are employed to achieve a regular procedures in the whole life cycle of a system, for the purpose of a prediction and a evaluation of a fault that might be able to be happened in a system. This International Standards uses SIL (Safety Integrity Level) to evaluate a safety level of a system. SIL is divided into 4 levels, from level 1 to level 4, and each level has functional failure rate and dangerous failure rate of a system. In this paper we describe the conventional method to predict the dangerous failure rate and propose a method using hazard analysis to predict the dangerous failure rate. The conventional method and the technique using hazard analysis to predict the dangerous failure rate are made a comparison through the control modules of the interlocking system in KTX. The proposed method verify better effectiveness for the prediction of the dangerous failure rate than that of the conventional method.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제32권1호
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• pp.27-32
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• 2017

The experimental design methodology was applied in the real scale coal-fired boiler to predict the various combustion properties according to the operating conditions and to assess the coal plant safety. Response surface method (RSM) was introduced as a design of experiment, and the database for RSM was provided with the numerical simulation of the coal-fired boiler. The three independent variables, high heating value of coal (HHV), overall stoichiometry excess air ratio (OST), and burner-side stoichiometry excess air ratio (BST), were set to characterize the cross section averaged NOx concentration and temperature distribution. The maximum NOx concentration was predicted accurately and mainly controlled by BST in the boiler. The parabola function was assumed for the zone averaged peak temperature distribution, and the prediction was in a fairly good agreement with the experiments except downstream. Also, the location of the peak temperature was compared with that of maximum NOx, which implies that thermal NOx formation is the main mechanism in the coal-fired boiler. These results promise the wide use of statistical models for the fast prediction and safety assessment.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.125-130
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• 2006

Waves, which are the main source of ship motions in a seaway, considerably affect the performance of a ship. The study of waves and their impact on ship motions within harbors is an important aspect of the design and operation of harbors. The prediction of incoming groups of waves is particularly important for evaluating ship motion within a harbor. Such a prediction makes it possible to evaluate ship safety more accurately. The wave transformation model reported here is applied to actual ports based on Boussinesq wave equations both non-linear and dispersive wave processes be considered in order to capture physical effects such as wave shoaling, refractions, reflection and diffraction in variable depth environments. The prediction of incoming groups of waves is particularly important for evaluating ship motion within a harbor, Such a prediction makes it possible to evaluate ship safety more accurately and provide safe wave informations for navigation. Furthermore, a wave information support system is proposed for entering ships as one technique for improving the safety of ship operations. This system predicts the run of waves and reduces the danger by identifying the most dangerous point near the harbor entrance at the small wave groups.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.122-127
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• 1996

The purpose of this study has been studied and investigated to prediction algorithms of the Kalman Filtering theory which are based on the state-vector description, including system identification, model structure determination, parameter estimation. And the prediction algorithms applied of rainfall-runoff process, has been worked out. The analysis of runoff process and runoff prediction algorithms of the river-basin established, for the verification of prediction algorithms by the Kalman Filtering theory, the observed historical data of the hourly rainfall and streamflows were used for the algorithms. In consisted of the above, Kalman Filtering rainfall-runoff model applied and analysised to Wi-Stream basin in Nak-dong River(Basin area : $472.53km^2$).

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제33권4호
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• pp.98-104
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• 2018

Macroscopic accident analyses have been conducted to incorporate transportation safety into long-term transportation planning. In macro-level accident prediction model, exposure variable(e.g. a settled population) have been used as fundamental explanatory variable under the concept that each trip will be subjected to a probable risk of accident. However, a settled population may be embedded error by exclusion of active population concept. The objective of this research study is to develop macro-level accident prediction model using floating population variable(concept of including a settled population and active population) collected from mobile phone data. The concept of accident prediction models is introduced utilizing exposure variable as explanatory variable in a generalized linear regression with assumption of a negative binomial error structure. The goodness of fit of model using floating population variable is compared with that of the each models using population and the number of household variables. Also, log transformation models are additionally developed to improve the goodness of fit. The results show that the log transformation model using floating population variable is useful for capturing the relationships between accident and exposure variable and generally perform better than the models using other existing exposure variables. The developed model using floating population variable can be used to guide transportation safety policy decision makers to allocate resources more efficiently for the regions(or zones) with higher risk and improve urban transportation safety in transportation planning step.

• 한국식품저장유통학회지
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• 제30권4호
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• pp.573-588
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• 2023

The purpose of this study was to monitor changes in the quality of ginseng and predict its shelf-life. As the storage period of ginseng increased, some quality indicators, such as water-soluble pectin (WSP), CDTA-soluble pectin (CSP), cellulose, weight loss, and microbial growth increased, while others (Na₂CO₃-soluble pectin/NSP, hemicellulose, starch, and firmness) decreased. Principal component analysis (PCA) was performed using the quality attribute data and the principal component 1 (PC1) scores extracted from the PCA results were applied to the multivariate analysis. The reaction rate at different temperatures and the temperature dependence of the reaction rate were determined using kinetic and Arrhenius models, respectively. Among the kinetic models, zeroth-order models with cellulose and a PC1 score provided an adequate fit for reaction rate estimation. Hence, the prediction model was constructed by applying the cellulose and PC1 scores to the zeroth-order kinetic and Arrhenius models. The prediction model with PC1 score showed higher R² values (0.877-0.919) than those of cellulose (0.797-0.863), indicating that multivariate analysis using PC1 score is more accurate for the shelf-life prediction of ginseng. The predicted shelf-life using the multivariate accelerated shelf-life test at 5, 20, and 35℃ was 40, 16, and 7 days, respectively.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제27권4호
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• pp.115-120
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• 2012

In order to establish preventive maintenance standards through analysis & reliability prediction of about 60,000pcs of 20kindsof relays and contractors used for Seoul subway trains, several life prediction methodologies were applied. Firstly, Occurrence, Severity, Detection were defined and predicted by applying operation characteristic of EMU to the number of actions of relays & contactors which the manufacturers generally offer as the life cycle data. Secondly, failure distribution and average life of parts were analyzed through interpretation of field data based on a lot of experience which had built up in the field for a long time. Finally, using the 217PLUS standard as a reliability prediction program, comparative analysis of use reliability and inherent reliability was done through reliability prediction at the part level and system level.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.81-87
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• 2008

The reliability prediction and evaluation for general electronic components are required to guarantee in quality and in efficiency. Although many methodologies for predicting the reliability of electronic components have been developed, their reliability might be subjective according to a particular set of circumstances, and therefore it is not easy to quantify their reliability. In this study reliability prediction of electronic components, that is the interface card, which is used in the CNC(Computerized Numerical Controller) of machine tools, was carried out using PRISM reliability prediction specification. Reliability performances such as MTBF(Mean Time Between Failure), failure rate and reliability were obtained, and the variation of failure rate for electronic components according to temperature change was predicted. The results obtained from this study are useful information to consider a counter plan for weak components before they are used.