• Title/Summary/Keyword: Road Speed Prediction

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A Estimation of Dwell Time of Low-floor Buses considering S-BRT Operation Behavior (S-BRT 운행행태를 고려한 저상버스의 정차시간 예측모형)

  • Shin, S.M.;Lee, S.B.;Kim, Y.C.;Park, S.H.;Yu, Y.S.;Choi, J.H.
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.72-79
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    • 2021
  • This basic study introduces the concept of S-BRT and develops dwell time estimation models that consider road geometry and S-BRT characteristics for a signal operation strategy to meet the S-BRT's operational goal of high speed and punctuality. Field surveys of low-floor buses similar in shape to S-BRTs and data collection of passengers, station elements, vehicle elements, and other factors that can affect stop times were used in a regression analysis to establish statistically significant dwell time estimation models. These dwell time estimation models are developed by categorizing according to the locations of the signal or sidewalk that have the most impact on the dwell time. In this way, the number of people boarding and alighting the bus at the crowded door and the number of people boarding and alighting the bus at the front door considering the internal congestion was analyzed to affect the dwell time. The estimation dwell time models in this study can be used in the establishment of strategies that provide priority signals to S-BRTs.

Development of Traffic Accident frequency Prediction Model by Administrative zone - A Case of Seoul (소규모 지역단위 교통사고예측모형 개발 - 서울시 행정동을 대상으로)

  • Hong, Ji Yeon;Lee, Soo Beom;Kim, Jeong Hyun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.1297-1308
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    • 2015
  • In Korea, the local traffic safety master plan has been established and implemented according to the Traffic Safety Act. Each local government is required to establish a customized traffic safety policy and share roles for improvement of traffic safety and this means that local governments lead and promote effective local traffic safety policies fit for local circumstances in substance. For implementing efficient traffic safety policies, which accord with many-sided characteristics of local governments, the prediction of community-based traffic accidents, which considers local characteristics and the analysis of accident influence factors must be preceded, but there is a shortage of research on this. Most of existing studies on the community-based traffic accident prediction used social and economic variables related to accident exposure environments in countries or cities due to the limit of collected data. For this reason, there was a limit in applying the developed models to the actual reduction of traffic accidents. Thus, this study developed a local traffic accident prediction model, based on smaller regional units, administrative districts, which were not omitted in existing studies and suggested a method to reflect traffic safety facility and policy variables that traffic safety policy makers can control, in addition to social and economic variables related to accident exposure environments, in the model and apply them to the development of local traffic safety policies. The model development result showed that in terms of accident exposure environments, road extension, gross floor area of buildings, the ratio of bus lane installation and the number of crossroads and crosswalks had a positive relation with accidents and the ratio of crosswalk sign installation, the number of speed bumps and the results of clampdown by police force had a negative relation with accidents.

Building a TDM Impact Analysis System for the Introduction of Short-term Congestion Management Program in Seoul (교통수요관리 방안의 단기적 효과 분석모형의 구축)

  • 황기연;김익기;엄진기
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.173-185
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    • 1999
  • The purpose of this study is to develope a forecasting model to implement short-term Congestion Management Program (CMP) based on TDM strategies in Seoul. The CMP is composed of three elements: 1) setting a goal of short-term traffic management. 2) developing a model to forecast the impacts of TDM alternatives, and 3) finding TDM measures to achieve the goal To Predict the impacts of TDM alternatives, a model called SECOMM (SEoul COngestion Management Model) is developed. The model assumes that trip generation and distribution are not changing in a short term, and that only mode split and traffic assignment are affected by TDM. The model includes the parameter values calibrated by a discrete mode choice model, and roadway and transit networks with 1,020 zones. As a TDM measure implement, it affects mode choice behavior first and then the speeds of roadway network. The chanced speed again affects the mode choice behavior and the roadway speeds. These steps continue until the network is equilibrated. The study recommends that CMP be introduced in Seoul, and that road way conditions be monitored regularly to secure the prediction accuracy of SECOMM. Also, TDM should be the major Policy tools in removing short-term congestion problems in a big city.

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A Study on Predictive Traffic Information Using Cloud Route Search (클라우드 경로탐색을 이용한 미래 교통정보 예측 방법)

  • Jun Hyun, Kim;Kee Wook, Kwon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.287-296
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    • 2015
  • Recent navigation systems provide quick guide services, based on processing real-time traffic information and past traffic information by applying predictable pattern for traffic information. However, the current pattern for traffic information predicts traffic information by processing past information that it presents an inaccuracy problem in particular circumstances(accidents and weather). So, this study presented a more precise predictive traffic information system than historical traffic data first by analyzing route search data which the drivers ask in real time for the quickest way then by grasping traffic congestion levels of the route in which future drivers are supposed to locate. First results of this study, the congested route from Yang Jae to Mapo, the analysis result shows that the accuracy of the weighted value of speed of existing commonly congested road registered an error rate of 3km/h to 18km/h, however, after applying the real predictive traffic information of this study the error rate registered only 1km/h to 5km/h. Second, in terms of quality of route as compared to the existing route which allowed for an earlier arrival to the destination up to a maximum of 9 minutes and an average of up to 3 minutes that the reliability of predictable results has been secured. Third, new method allows for the prediction of congested levels and deduces results of route searches that avoid possibly congested routes and to reflect accurate real-time data in comparison with existing route searches. Therefore, this study enabled not only the predictable gathering of information regarding traffic density through route searches, but it also made real-time quick route searches based on this mechanism that convinced that this new method will contribute to diffusing future traffic flow.

Analytic study on thermal management operating conditions of balance of 100kW fuel cell power plant for a fuel cell electric vehicle (100kW급 연료전지 열관리 시스템 실도로 운전조건 해석적 연구)

  • Lee, Ho-Seong;Lee, Moo-Yeon;Cho, Choong-Won
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2019
  • The objective of this study was to investigate performance characteristics of thermal management system(TMS) in a fuel cell electric vehicle with 100kW Fuel Cell(FC) system. In order to build up analytic modelling for TMS, each component was installed and tested under various operating conditions, such as water pump, radiator, 3-Way valve, COD heater, and FC stack etc. and as the results of them, correlations reflecting component's characteristics with flow rate, air velocity were developed. Developed analytic modelling was carried out under various operating conditions on the road. To verify modelling's accuracy, after prediction for optimum coolant flow rate was fulfilled under certain operating conditions, such as FC system, water pump speed, opening of 3-way valve, and pipe resistance, analytic and experimental values were compared and good agreement was shown. In order to predict cold-start operating performance for analytic modelling, coolant temperature variation was analyzed with $-20^{\circ}C$ ambient temperature and duration was predicted to rise in optimum temperature for FC. Because there is appropriate temperature difference between inlet and outlet of FC stack to operate FC system properly, related analysis was performed with respect to power consumption for TMS and heat rejection rate and performance map was depicted along with FC operating conditions.